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Insurance Premium Payment Options Analysis

ST2334 Tutorial 4

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
19 views3 pages

Insurance Premium Payment Options Analysis

ST2334 Tutorial 4

Uploaded by

agathaaryn
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

N ATIONAL U NIVERSITY OF S INGAPORE

D EPARTMENT OF S TATISTICS AND DATA S CIENCE


ST2334 P ROBABILITY AND S TATISTICS
S EMESTER II, AY 2024/2025

Tutorial 04

Please work on the questions before attending the tutorial.

Exam Format Questions

1. Multiple choice question: choose the unique correct answer.


An insurance company offers its policyholders a number of different premium payment options.
For a randomly selected policyholder, let X be the number of months between successive pay-
ments. The cumulative distribution function of X is given as follows.



0, x < 1;




0.3, 1 ≤ x < 3;

0.4, 3 ≤ x < 4;
FX (x) =


0.45, 4 ≤ x < 6;




0.6, 6 ≤ x < 12;

1, 12 ≤ x.
Which of the following is INCORRECT?

(a) P(3 ≤ X ≤ 6) = 0.3


(b) P(X ≥ 4) = 0.6
(c) P(X = 3) = 0.15
(d) P(2 < X < 4) = 0.1

2. Multiple choice question: choose the unique correct answer.


An insurance company offers its policyholders a number of different premium payment options.
For a randomly selected policyholder, let X be the number of months between successive pay-
ments. The cumulative distribution function of X is given as follows.



0, x < 1;




0.3, 1 ≤ x < 3;

0.4, 3 ≤ x < 4;
FX (x) =


0.45, 4 ≤ x < 6;




0.6, 6 ≤ x < 12;

1, 12 ≤ x.
Which of the following is the probability function of X?

x 1 3 4 6 12
(a)
fX (x) 0.3 0.1 0.05 0.15 0.4

x 1 3 4 6 12
(b)
fX (x) 0.3 0.1 0.45 0.05 0.4

1
x 1 3 4 6 12
(c)
fX (x) 0 0.3 0.4 0.6 1
(d) None of the given options.

3. Multiple response question: choose all that apply.


Which of the following is/are valid cumulative distribution function(s)?

(a) F(x) = 0.5ex when x ≤ 0 and F(x) = 1 − 0.5e−x when x > 0.


(b) F(x) = x when 0 ≤ x < 1 and F(x) = 0 elsewhere.
(c) F(x) = ex when x ≤ 0 and F(x) = 1 − e−x when x > 0.
(d) F(x) = 1 − e−x when x ≥ 0 and F(x) = 0 elsewhere.

4. Multiple response question: choose all that apply.


Let F(x) be the cumulative distribution function of a random variable X. Which of the following
is/are TRUE?

(a) If RX is a subset of the integers, then for any integers a and b such that a < b, we must have
F(b) = F(a − 1) + P(a ≤ X ≤ b).
(b) If X is a continuous random variable and a < b are two real numbers, we must have F(b) =
F(a) + P(a ≤ X ≤ b).
(c) Let X be a continuous random variable, then E(X) must be a value in RX .
(d) F(x) is a non-increasing function x.
(e) If a < b, then F(a) < F(b).

5. Fill in the blank.


Determine the value c, such that the following function can serve as a probability function of a
random variable X. (
c(x2 + 4), x = 0, 1, 2, 3;
fX (x) =
0, elsewhere.
c= .

Analytical Questions

1. Consider the probability function


( √
k x, 0 < x < 1;
fX (x) =
0, elsewhere.

(a) Find the value of the constant k.


(b) Find the cumulative distribution function FX (x), and use it to evaluate P(0.3 < X < 0.6).

2. The waiting time, in hours, between successive speeders spotted by a radar unit is a continuous
random variable with cumulative distribution
(
0, x ≤ 0;
FX (x) = −8x
1 − e , x > 0.

(a) Find the probability of waiting less than 12 minutes between successive speeders.
(b) Find the probability density function of X.

2
3. The random variable X, representing the number of errors per 100 lines of software code, has the
following probability function:

x 2 3 4 5 6
fX (x) 0.01 0.25 0.40 0.30 0.04

(a) Find E(X) and E(X 2 ).


(b) Find the variance of X using (i) the definition of variance and (ii) V (X) = E(X 2 ) − [E(X)]2 .
(c) Find the mean and variance of the discrete variable Z = 3X − 2.
(d) Find the probability function of the random variable Z. Hence, find the mean and variance of
Z directly from its probability function).
(e) Suppose that W = aZ + b. Find the mean and variance of W in terms of a and b.

4. The probability function of a random variable X is given by



x,
 for 0 < x < 1;
f (x) = 2 − x, for 1 ≤ x < 2;

0, elsewhere.

(a) Find the probability that the random variable will take on a value between 0.6 and 1.2.
(b) Find E(X) and V (X).

Answers for Some of the Analytical Questions



0,
 x≤0 3. (a) 4.11, 17.63; (b) 0.7379; (c) 10.33, 6.6411; (d) E(Z) = 10.33,
1. (a) 3/2; (b) FX (x) = x3/2 , 0 < x < 1 ; V (Z) = 6.6411; (e) 10.33a + b, 6.6411a2 .

1, x≥1

P(0.3 < X < 0.6) = 0.3004

2. (a) 0.7981; (b) fX (x) = 8e−8x for x ≥ 0. 4. (a) 0.5; (b) 1; (c) 1/6.

Common questions

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A non-monotonic cumulative distribution function (CDF) violates the fundamental requirement for a CDF to be non-decreasing, creating challenges in interpreting probabilities and ensuring they are consistently applied. This anomaly could lead to invalid probability assignments, such as negative probabilities or probabilities that exceed one, which defy probability principles. A non-monotonic CDF disrupts the calculation of probabilities for any given range, failing to provide coherent insights into the behavior of the random variable . Consistent application of probability laws demands that CDFs must be corrected to maintain monotonicity .

For continuous variables, the cumulative distribution function (CDF) effectively captures the probability that the random variable takes on a value less than or equal to x. Accurate computation of CDFs is crucial as it underpins the derivation of probabilities for any interval in the continuum. Furthermore, the CDF itself provides insights into the distribution's behavior and characteristics, such as its median and percentiles. Errors in computing the CDF can significantly affect probabilistic interpretations and decision-making processes .

The variance of a random variable X can be calculated using two approaches: (i) Definition of variance: V(X) = E[(X - E(X))^2], which involves computing the expectation of the squared deviation from the mean. (ii) Alternative formula: V(X) = E(X^2) - [E(X)]^2, which requires finding the expected value of X squared, E(X^2), and subtracting the square of the expected value, [E(X)]^2 . These methods give insights into data dispersion, useful for probabilistic modeling and forecasting .

For continuous random variables, the equation F(b) = F(a) + P(a ≤ X ≤ b) holds because the cumulative distribution function (CDF), F(x), directly gives the probability that the variable takes on values less than or equal to x. For any two points a and b, where a < b, F(b) encompasses F(a) along with the additional probability mass from a to b. The probability P(a ≤ X ≤ b) thus fills the gap between F(a) and F(b). This reveals the coherence and continuity inherent in CDF distributions .

The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is a robust mathematical model for predicting distributions with non-integers within a specified range. By applying the CDF, one can calculate the probability that a random variable X will fall within a particular interval. The CDF is defined as FX(x) = P(X ≤ x) and provides a complete description of the distribution's behavior over a continuum, offering probabilities for a range without restriction to discrete outcomes. This allows for continuous probability assessment over non-integer values, utilizing calculus for integration when dealing with continuous random variables . Its effectiveness in assessing distributions is embedded in its ability to capture the entire probability mass up to any given point x in the distribution .

To find the value of constant c such that a function fX(x) becomes a valid probability function, you need to ensure that the function meets the condition ∑fX(x) = 1 for all x in its domain . For instance, for the function fX(x) = c(x^2 + 4), x = 0, 1, 2, 3; 0, elsewhere, calculate the sum of fX(x) across all possible values. Solve for c in the equation c(0^2 + 4) + c(1^2 + 4) + c(2^2 + 4) + c(3^2 + 4) = 1 to ensure the total probability is 1 .

To determine if a function is a valid cumulative distribution function, it must satisfy the following conditions: (1) Non-decreasing: the function must not decrease as x increases. (2) Right-continuous: the function should be continuous from the right. (3) FX(x) ranges from 0 to 1, where FX(x) approaches 0 as x approaches negative infinity, and FX(x) approaches 1 as x approaches positive infinity . For instance, among the given options, (d) F(x) = 1−e−x when x ≥0 and F(x) = 0 elsewhere is a valid CDF as it adheres to these conditions .

The functional form of a probability function significantly impacts the computation of expected value and variance for a discrete random variable. The probabilities assigned to different outcomes influence their contribution to the weighted average — the expected value, E(X). Specifically, outcomes with higher probabilities weigh more heavily in the calculation of E(X) and also affect the calculation of variance, which measures the spread of the random variable around its mean. Functional discrepancies may skew these calculations, thereby affecting subsequent inferences and decision-making processes . It highlights the importance of correctly specifying the probability function for accurate statistical analysis .

For a linear transformation W = aZ + b of a random variable Z with mean E(Z) and variance V(Z), the mean of W becomes E(W) = aE(Z) + b, and the variance becomes V(W) = a^2V(Z). This demonstrates that scaling the random variable Z by a factor a multiplies the variance by a^2, indicating that the spread of W is heavily dependent on the magnitude of a, while b shifts the mean without affecting the variance .

Verifying CDF characteristics such as right-continuity and range constraints is crucial to ensure they accurately represent a probability distribution. Right-continuity guarantees that probability assessments are consistent as the variable approaches any point from the right, essential for seamless integration with density functions and maintaining probabilistic integrity. The range constraint that keeps the CDF values between 0 and 1 ensures probabilities are non-negative and do not exceed 1, aligning with foundational probability laws. Failing to observe these characteristics may lead to incorrect probability estimates and faulty statistical interpretations .

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