Foreign Policy by Abdul Sattar

Chapter 24: Policy in a Changing World

Introduction
Sabaat ek taghayyur ko hai zamaney mein — Allama Iqbal

The quote by Allama Iqbal reflects the changing nature of the world, and in the same way, a
state's foreign policy must evolve to meet new challenges and secure its interests. The primary
aim of foreign policy is to safeguard the nation's independence, promote peace, and ensure
economic and social progress for the people. Over time, as global power structures change,
Pakistan's foreign policy has had to adjust to these shifts. This chapter explores how these
changes have occurred and their implications for Pakistan.

Global Political Landscape After World War II

The Rise of Optimism (Post-1945)

After the end of World War II in 1945, the world witnessed an atmosphere of hope and
optimism. Nations were gaining freedom from colonial rule, and there was a shared desire for
international cooperation to promote peace, security, economic development, and human
rights. The establishment of the United Nations symbolized this hope, aiming to prevent future
conflicts and ensure better living standards for people worldwide.

Ideological Rivalry and the Cold War

However, this optimism quickly gave way to ideological rivalry between the United States and
the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). These two superpowers had contradictory
ideologies:

 Soviet Union: Believed in a world revolution, the dictatorship of the proletariat, and
socialist ownership of production.
 United States: Advocated for democracy, a capitalist economic system, and peaceful
evolution in world affairs.

This rivalry led to the Cold War, a period of intense political and military tension between these
two powers, each trying to expand their influence globally. The Cold War divided the world
into two opposing blocs, and the United Nations Security Council was rendered almost
ineffective due to the veto power of the permanent members (especially the USA and the
USSR).

Challenges Faced by the United Nations

Veto Power and Inaction
One of the biggest challenges to the United Nations was the abuse of veto power by the
permanent members of the Security Council. This prevented the UN from taking decisive action
on key international issues. For example, the Palestine question and the Kashmir dispute
remained unresolved for decades. The Korean War broke out, and struggles for independence in
countries like Vietnam and Algeria were either ignored or mishandled.

The Nuclear Arms Race

The tension between the USA and the USSR led to the nuclear arms race, where both nations
built up massive stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction. This dangerous competition
pushed the Doomsday Clock closer to midnight, symbolizing the threat of nuclear war. Despite
the peaceful goals of the United Nations, the Cold War rivalry created a hostile environment for
international cooperation.

Impact on Pakistan's Foreign Policy

Adjusting to Global Changes

For Pakistan, the global political environment shaped its foreign policy decisions. As new
powers emerged and the world became increasingly divided, Pakistan had to navigate its position
carefully, balancing relationships with both superpowers while safeguarding its national
interests. Over the years, Pakistan’s foreign policy evolved to address regional concerns,
security issues, and the aspirations of its people for economic development.

Conclusion

The global political landscape after World War II posed numerous challenges for international
cooperation. The Cold War, with its ideological divides and power struggles, created a complex
environment for nations like Pakistan. Despite the initial optimism after the creation of the
United Nations, the failure to overcome these tensions highlighted the challenges of achieving
lasting global peace. In response, Pakistan's foreign policy continuously adapted to ensure its
sovereignty, security, and economic progress, reflecting the ongoing changes in the
international system.

The End of History and Its Implications

The Collapse of the Soviet Union (1991)

In 1991, the collapse of the Soviet Union marked the end of the Cold War, effectively bringing
the ideological contest between the USA and USSR to a close. The sudden fall of the Soviet
system led to the triumph of democracy and market economy as the dominant global systems.
This ideological shift led to the view that, for the first time in history, the world could look
forward to peace and cooperation rather than conflict.

Francis Fukuyama's 'End of History' Thesis

Fukuyama's Argument
American scholar Francis Fukuyama argued that democracy and market economies were the
most effective political and economic systems. He proposed that history had reached its final
form, and there was no longer any serious competition between ideologies. According to
Fukuyama, humanity had found the ideal system, and the world could now focus on global
harmony.

Global Optimism Post-1991

In the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, many international developments seemed
to support Fukuyama’s thesis:

 Eastern European countries and nations formerly under Soviet control regained
sovereignty.
 Germany was reunited, overcoming its division since World War II.
 Proxy wars in regions like Southern Africa and Central America came to an end.
 The Apartheid regime in South Africa was dismantled, granting equal rights to the
black majority.
 Global tensions abated, and agreements were signed on reducing weapons of mass
destruction.
 The Doomsday Clock, which symbolized the risk of nuclear war, was turned back.

Challenges and Exceptions

Despite the overall optimism, some issues remained unresolved:

 Palestine and Kashmir continued to suffer from long-standing conflicts.

 Afghanistan remained engulfed in a civil war.
 As Yugoslavia began to break apart, ethnic cleansing in Bosnia escalated.
 India and Pakistan both conducted nuclear tests, raising concerns about regional
security.

These exceptions showed that while global optimism was high, there were still significant
challenges to achieving global peace and stability.

The United Nations and the Millennium Declaration (2000)

Hope for a New International Order
In September 2000, the United Nations General Assembly adopted the Millennium
Declaration, which aimed to create a more peaceful, prosperous, and just world. The
declaration emphasized:

 Collective responsibility to end war and violence.

 A renewed commitment to resolving international disputes.
 Cooperation to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which aimed to
reduce global poverty and improve living conditions for all.

While the world seemed hopeful about these goals, a major shift occurred shortly after, which
severely impacted these aspirations.

The 9/11 Attacks and Post-9/11 Setbacks

The Transformation of Global Security (9/11)

The 9/11 terrorist attacks on New York and the Pentagon drastically changed global security
dynamics. These attacks posed a new challenge to internal security in the United States, major
European countries, and Muslim states such as Afghanistan and Pakistan. The attacks
created widespread fear and insecurity, which undermined hopes for lasting peace and stability.

Islamophobia and Western Responses

The aftermath of 9/11 saw a rise in Islamophobia, as some Western countries' responses led to
increased mistrust and hatred toward Muslims. These negative sentiments were exacerbated by
certain Western actions, further deepening global divisions.

The Iraq Invasion (2003)

A significant setback to international peace occurred when the Bush administration decided to
invade Iraq in 2003 based on unfounded claims about weapons of mass destruction. This
invasion led to:

 Global condemnation for the **disregard of the United Nations Charter.

 Pakistan, which was a member of the Security Council at the time, resisted pressure to
support the US invasion, highlighting its opposition to the violation of international law.
 Massive destruction of life and infrastructure in Iraq, with hundreds of thousands of
innocent lives lost and millions displaced from their homes.
 The Muslim world was deeply angered by the invasion, viewing it as a neo-imperialist
act of forcible regime change.

This event shattered the optimism of the post-Cold War era, renewing fears of imperialism and
the erosion of international norms.
Conclusion: The Fragility of Global Optimism

The collapse of the Soviet Union and the hope of global peace represented an optimistic vision
for the 21st century. However, 9/11 and the Iraq invasion showed how quickly global stability
can unravel. The Millennium Declaration's hopes for a peaceful and prosperous world were
severely tested by these setbacks, demonstrating the fragility of international peace in the face
of ideological, political, and military challenges. The dreams of a harmonious global order have
been overshadowed by continuing conflicts, terrorism, and the actions of powerful states, leaving
the world uncertain about its future direction.

Global Power Hierarchy: A Changing Landscape

The United States: A Superpower in the 21st Century

The United States continues to be a dominant military and economic superpower, with a GDP of
$14.3 trillion, accounting for over 20 percent of the global economy. Despite its ongoing
influence, the global power structure has evolved significantly since World War II, with several
nations rising in economic and political power.

The Rise of Japan, Germany, and China

1. Post-War Reconstruction and Growth

o Japan and Germany, once devastated by the war, have emerged as some of the
world’s most affluent states. They are both central players in global trade,
innovation, and diplomacy.
2. China's Economic Surge
o The most remarkable rise in recent decades has been that of China. Since the
leadership of Deng Xiaoping in 1979, China adopted a pragmatic economic
policy that has driven steady economic growth, averaging about 10 percent per
year. In 2009, China’s GDP was $4.3 trillion, making it the world’s second-
largest economy.
o China’s economic growth has transformed it into a global power, giving it
significant influence in international affairs, trade, and technology.

The Global Power Hierarchy Today

1. Top Economies
o Following the United States and China, the countries that rank next in terms of
economic size are:
 Japan, Germany, UK, France, and Italy.
 o South Korea, Brazil, India, and Russia are now also part of the top ten
economies, showing rapid growth and economic development.
2. Russia's Role
o With a GDP of $1 trillion, Russia has recently rebuilt its economy and maintains
one of the largest strategic military arsenals in the world, ensuring it remains a
superpower in global geopolitics.

Military Power and Technological Progress

The Role of Military Power

 Military power has long been a critical factor in determining global influence. For states
facing expansionist neighbors, maintaining a strong defense is essential to their
survival.
 The rise and fall of Great Powers throughout history emphasize the importance of
technological progress and economic modernization in sustaining military and political
dominance.
 In contrast to 17th-century powers like the Ottoman, Mughal, and Ming empires,
which declined due to failure in economic modernization, modern nations that fostered
science, technology, and human resource development have risen to global
prominence.

The Rise of the East Asian Tigers and Other Developing Nations

1. The East Asian Tigers

o Countries such as South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong are
celebrated for their rapid economic modernization. These nations are often cited
as models for other countries seeking to escape stagnation and poverty.
2. Emerging Economies
o Nations like Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam have successfully
transitioned from low-income economies to emerging markets, gaining economic
and social influence on the global stage.

Oil-Rich Nations and Their Influence

1. Economic Modernization through Oil

o Countries rich in oil and gas reserves have also risen in economic and political
importance. The Gulf States such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates,
Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman have utilized their natural resources to achieve
 economic and social modernization, giving them a significant voice in global
politics.

The Dilution of Great Power Influence

1. Shift in Global Power Dynamics

o A positive consequence of the rise of many countries in both economic and
military power is the dilution of the influence of traditional Great Powers. The
permanent members of the UN Security Council (such as the United States,
Russia, China, France, and the UK) are increasingly hesitant to use their veto
power to block resolutions that have wide international support.
2. United States' Reluctance to Adapt
o Despite this trend, the United States has largely resisted the change. It continues
to maintain its relationship with Israel and often acts under the influence of the
powerful Israeli lobby, which has led to criticisms of its foreign policy decisions.

Conclusion: A New Era of Global Power

The global power hierarchy is no longer dominated by a few Great Powers. The rise of nations
like China, India, and Brazil, along with the success of East Asian Tigers and oil-rich states,
has led to a more multipolar world. This shift has led to a broader distribution of economic,
military, and political influence, creating a more complex and interconnected global landscape.
While traditional powers like the United States and Russia remain influential, the increasing
influence of emerging nations signifies a new era in global power dynamics.

The passage offers an insightful review of Pakistan’s foreign policy from its inception in 1947 to
2009. Here are some key points highlighted in the appraisal:

1. Continuity and Change: The fundamental goals of Pakistan’s foreign policy—such as

maintaining political independence, territorial integrity, and promoting socio-economic
development—have remained consistent. However, strategies have evolved based on
shifting global and regional dynamics.
2. Early Foreign Policy: Initially, Pakistan faced significant challenges, including India's
refusal to respect the partition terms and a lack of defense resources. In response,
Pakistan sought foreign assistance, especially from the United States, which offered
economic aid and military support.
3. Cold War Dynamics: Pakistan's foreign policy choices during the Cold War were
shaped by the need to protect itself from India and secure economic aid. Despite
ideological differences with the Soviet Union, Pakistan chose to align with the U.S. in
 military alliances like SEATO and the Baghdad Pact, benefiting from significant aid
during the 1950s and 1960s.
4. Sino-Pakistan Relations and U.S. Strain: Relations between Pakistan and the U.S.
became strained during the 1960s and 1970s, particularly due to U.S. support for India
and Pakistan's cooperation with China. The U.S. imposed sanctions after Pakistan
pursued nuclear capabilities, which further strained relations.
5. Soviet-Afghan War and U.S. Cooperation: The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979
marked a major turning point, with Pakistan aligning with the U.S. to counter Soviet
expansion. However, this alliance collapsed in 1990 when the U.S. imposed sanctions on
Pakistan, following the country’s nuclear tests and military coup.
6. Post-9/11 Transformation: After the 9/11 attacks, Pakistan's foreign policy underwent a
significant shift. Pakistan's decision to cooperate in the global war on terror reintegrated
it into the international community, restoring ties with major countries. However, the
fight against terrorism and insurgency remained an ongoing struggle by 2009.

Overall, Pakistan's foreign policy has been marked by pragmatism, with strategic adjustments
made to safeguard national security and advance socio-economic development in a complex
global landscape.

The conclusions drawn from the review of Pakistan's foreign policy provide several important
insights:

1. Autonomy in Decision-Making: The foreign policy decisions of Pakistan were made

independently by its leaders, based on their assessment of national interests. While most
decisions proved to be wise, some were erroneous due to incorrect assumptions and
predictions. However, the complexity of global relations and the inherent fallibility of
human judgment should be considered when evaluating past policies.
2. Misconception of U.S. Influence: The notion that Pakistan was trapped in alliances by
the United States is challenged. Pakistan itself sought U.S. aid shortly after its
independence and initially faced rejection. The criticism of non-alignment being a better
choice overlooks the immediate necessity for Pakistan to strengthen its military and
economy to secure its sovereignty.
3. Cost-Benefit of Alliances: The alliance policy, particularly with the U.S., was beneficial
for Pakistan in terms of military and economic aid. However, when the costs became too
high, Pakistan prioritized its strategic interests. For example, Pakistan resisted U.S.
pressures and continued its strategic cooperation with China and its nuclear deterrence
development, even in the face of sanctions.
4. Soviet-Afghan War Decision: The decision to support Afghan resistance against Soviet
intervention in 1979 brought severe consequences, including the influx of refugees, the
spread of extremism, and the rise of terrorism. These were not anticipated by Pakistani
policymakers at the time. Despite these costs, the decision was made independently,
without foreign influence, and was driven by Pakistan’s strategic interests.
5. Post-9/11 Policy: After the 9/11 attacks, Pakistan independently decided to join the
international coalition in the fight against terrorism. This decision, made at a critical
 juncture, has proven to be correct over time, as Pakistan continued to support military
operations against terrorism, despite initial lack of U.S. communication.
6. Human Fallibility and the Role of Hindsight: While not all decisions were successful,
the reader is reminded that hindsight makes it easy to spot mistakes. Even major powers
make errors in judgment. The key is to learn from past mistakes and avoid repeating them
in the future.
7. Optimism for the Future: Despite past challenges, Pakistan is rich in human and
material resources and has the potential to fulfill the vision of its founders for a moderate,
progressive Muslim state. A thoughtful and prudent foreign policy remains essential for
shaping a better future for Pakistan.

In conclusion, the analysis emphasizes the importance of autonomy, the complexity of

international relations, and the need to learn from history to guide Pakistan toward a more
prosperous and secure future.