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Expectation vs. Average Explained

Chapter 3 discusses the concept of mathematical expectation, focusing on the mean and variance of random variables. It provides formulas for calculating the expected value for both discrete and continuous random variables, along with examples illustrating these concepts. Additionally, the chapter covers the means and variances of linear combinations of random variables, including relevant theorems and corollaries.

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9 views8 pages

Expectation vs. Average Explained

Chapter 3 discusses the concept of mathematical expectation, focusing on the mean and variance of random variables. It provides formulas for calculating the expected value for both discrete and continuous random variables, along with examples illustrating these concepts. Additionally, the chapter covers the means and variances of linear combinations of random variables, including relevant theorems and corollaries.

Uploaded by

mayadanasr996
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Chapter 3

Mathematical Expectation
Mean of a Random Variable
Let X be a random variable with probability distribution
f(x). The mean, or expected value, of X is
μ = E(X) = σ𝑥 xf(x) if X is discrete,
and
∞
μ = E(X) = ‫׬‬−∞ xf(x) dx if X is continuous.
EXAMPLE 1
A fair coin is tossed twice. Find the expected value of the
number of heads in this experiment?
Solution: S={HH,HT,TH,TT}
P(X = 0) = P(TT) =1/4
P(X = 1) = P(TH) + P(HT) =1/2
P(X = 2) = P(HH) =1/4
μ = E(X) = (0)(1/4)+(1)(1/2)+(2)(1/4)=1
EXAMPLE 2
Let X be the random variable that denotes the life in
hours of a certain electronic device. The probability
density function is
20000
3 , 𝑥 > 100
f(x) =൝ 𝑥
0, elsewhere
Find the expected life of this type of device.
Solution:
∞ 20000
μ = E(X) =‫׬‬100 𝑥. 3 𝑑𝑥=200
𝑥
Variance Of Random Variable
Let X be a random variable with probability distribution
f(x) and mean μ. The variance of X is
Var(X)=σ2 = E (X − μ)2 =σ𝑥 (X − μ)2 f(x), if X is discrete,
and
∞
σ2 = E[(X − μ) ] =‫׬‬−∞(X
2 − μ)2 f(x)dx, if X is continuous.
The positive square root of the variance, σ, is called the
standard deviation of X.
Theorem:
The variance of a random variable X is σ𝟐 = E(X 𝟐 ) − μ𝟐
EXAMPLE 5
Let the random variable X represent the number of
defective parts for a machine when 3 parts are sampled
from a production line and tested. calculate σ2 from the
following probability distribution of X.

x 0 1 2 3
f(x) 0.51 0.38 0.10 0.01
Solution:
μ = (0)(0.51)+(1)(0.38)+(2)(0.10)+(3)(0.01) = 0.61.
E(𝑥 2 ) = (0)(0.51)+(1)(0.38)+(4)(0.10)+(9)(0.01) = 0.87.
Therefore, σ2 = 0.87 − (0.61)2 = 0.4979.
EXAMPLE 6
The weekly demand for a drinking-water product, in
thousands of liters, from a local chain of efficiency
stores is a continuous random variable X having the
probability density
2(𝑥 − 1), 1<𝑥<2
𝑓 𝑥 =ቊ
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
Find the mean and variance of X.
Solution:
2
μ = E(X) = ‫׬‬1 2𝑥(𝑥 − 1)dx=5/3
2
E(𝑥 )= ‫׬‬1 2𝑥 2 (𝑥 − 1)dx=17/6
2

Therefore, σ2 = 17/6− (5/3)2 = 1/18.


Means and variances of linear combinations of
random variables
Theorem: If a and b are constants, then
E(aX + b) = aE(X) + b.
Theorem: The expected value of the sum or difference
of two or more functions of a random variable X is the
sum or difference of the expected values of the
functions. That is,
E[g(X) ± h(X)] = E[g(X)] ± E[h(X)].
Corollary:
σ2 (aX±bY) = a2 σ2𝑋 + b2 σ2 𝑌
Corollary: σ2 (a) = 0

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