Microsoft and Google: Market Power Analysis
Microsoft and Google: Market Power Analysis
1
2
Army/Air Force Technical
Manual, Feb 1952
Bardeen & Brattain Point-
Contact Transistor Patent
3
U.S. Patent No.
2,524,035 (Oct 3, 1950)
Patent Licensing
4
AT&T Final Judgment
(Jan 24, 1956)
Kilby Integrated
Circuit Patent
5
U.S. Patent No. 3,138,743
(June 23, 1964)
Noyce Integrated
Circuit Patent
6
U.S. Patent No. 2,981,877
(Apr 25, 1961)
7
Intel 4004: Nov 15, 1971
8
Popular Electronics, Jan 1975
9
Paul Allen Tweet, Apr 4, 2015
Homebrew Computer Club
10
Newsletter, Jan 31 1976
11
IBM Personal Computer,
Aug 12, 1981
12
US v Microsoft Licensing
Case, July 15, 1994
Anticompetitive Contracts
13
US v Microsoft Licensing
Case, July 15, 1994
14
Tim Berners-Lee Proposal,
March 1989, May, 1990
“Our vision for the last 20 years can be
summarized in a succinct way. We saw that
exponential improvements in computer
capabilities would make great software quite
valuable. Our response was to build an
organization to deliver great software products.”
15
Bill Gates, Internet Tidal
Wave Memo, May 26, 1995
The Windows Monopoly
16
US v. Microsoft,
May 18, 1998
Summary of Outcome
in Court of Appeals
17
US v. Microsoft,
CADC, June 28, 2001
Original Divestiture Remedy
18
US v. Microsoft, DDC,
June 7, 2000
Actual Final Judgment
19
US v. Microsoft, DDC,
Nov 12, 2002
EU Statement of Objections WMP
20
European Commission, Aug 30, 2001
European Commission on WMP
22
European Commission, Mar 24, 2004
“In the SO, the Commission sets out evidence and
outlines its preliminary conclusion that
Microsoft’s tying of Internet Explorer to the
Windows operating system harms competition
between web browsers, undermines product
innovation and ultimately reduces consumer choice.”
23
European Commission,
Jan 17, 2009
24
[Link]
Week 2: Google Emerges
(and the World Responds)
25
AOL/Time Warner Merger
27
Federal Trade Commission Act,
Sept 26 1914
Paying for Search Results
28
FTC Search Engine
Letter, June 27, 2002
A Prototype Search Engine
29
Brin & Page (1998)
Bias is Difficult to Evaluate
30
Brin & Page (1998)
Data Model: Crawl, index, rank
32
33
Google Homepage, Oct 27, 2000
PageRank Patent
34
U.S. Patent No. 7,058,628 (June 6, 2006)
The Formula
35
U.S. Patent No. 7,058,628 (June 6, 2006)
36
Alice Corp. v. CLS Bank Int’l (U.S., June 19, 2014)
Platforms as Two-Sided
Markets
P$
The Platform
Room
P$
37
Marginal
Price v. Cost
In a two-sided market, it can be the best
outcome for one side of the market to
face prices less than marginal cost.
38
Two-Sided Markets Hypo
40
3. No Competition:
Hardwired in favor of Google
1. Organic Search
Competition (no $)
4. Onebox result:
hardwired Google 2. Auctions (all $)
reviews; organic
competition? Google Hyde Park Restaurants
41
Search, June 25, 2012
Closing of Search Bias
Investigation
42
U.S. FTC, Jan 3, 2013
Vertical Search
43
EU Announcement, 30 May 2010
44
Google’s Proposed Commitment to EU, Apr 3, 2013
45
Google’s Proposed Commitment to EU, Oct 21, 2013
Comparison Shopping
European Commission
48
Fact Sheet, 15 Apr 2015
Week 3: Smartphones
49
Licensing by Federal
Government
51
Communications Act of 1934
52
U.S. Nat’l Telecom & Info Admin, Aug, 2011
Allocate More Spectrum
for Broadband
53
FCC, National Broadband Plan, Mar 16, 2010
54
FCC Incentive Auction Staff Summary, Jan 16, 2013
55
FCC Incentive Auctions Website
iPhone Launch
56
Apple, Jan 9, 2007
Android Launch
57
Android Developers Blog, Sept 23, 2008
Smartphone OS Market
Shares, 2013 & 2014
58
Gartner, Mar 3, 2015
Pathologies in standard setting?
Collective Adoption Defects
At least in theory, adoption of products with
network externalities can be frustrated through
collective action problems.
Excess inertia: an old standard should be
displaced, but isn’t.
Excess momentum: an old standard should be
maintained, but is not.
59
Winner Take All Markets: Simple
Version
What outcome will we get?
Answer
Individuals enter sector 2 until expected return is
$10.
100 individuals in sector 2, 400 in sector 1
GNP is 400 * 10 + 1000*1 + 99*0 = 5000
60
And Now the Problem
Profits & Consumer Surplus if 1 Holder
P 1 Holder P 2 Holders
1 1
Demand CS Demand
CS 0.67
Curve Π Curve
PM =0.5
Profits Π
QM=0.5 1 Q 0.33 1 Q
61
Pricing Conclusions
Key Ideas
Patent pools help solve “double marginalization”
problem
Benefit of cross-licensing is better “internalization”
of externality problem
62
“This revision specifies technical corrections and
clarifications to IEEE Std 802.11 for wireless local
area networks (WLANS) as well as enhancements to
the existing medium access control (MAC) and
physical layer (PHY) functions.”
63
802.11 Standard
64
Wi-Fi Alliance
“IEEE standards may be drafted in terms that include
the use of Essential Patent Claims. If the IEEE
receives notice that a [Proposed] IEEE Standard may
require the use of a potential Essential Patent Claim,
the IEEE shall request licensing assurance, on the
IEEE-SA Standards Board approved Letter of
Assurance form, from the patent holder or patent
applicant. The IEEE shall request this assurance
without coercion.”
IEEE-SA Standards Board
65
Bylaws: Patent Policy
Is This a Market Power Problem?
No
1st Stage 2nd Stage
III IV
Possible Technologies SSO
?
? ?
Uncertainty regarding potential patent claims is a
major concern. Lock-in without (F)RAND?
67
“You have requested a statement of the Department’s
antitrust enforcement intentions with respect to a
proposed patent information policy that will allow
patent holders to publicly commit to specific
restrictions on their future licensing terms and
conditions for the use of patents that are essential to
IEEE standards.”
72
IEEE Bus Rev Letter (Sept 30, 2014)
Examples of FRAND Divergence
75
IEEE Bus Rev Letter (Sept 30, 2014)
App Store Launch
76
Apple, July 10, 2008
77
Apple Touch Interface Patents
78
Apple Design Patent
Damages Award
80
[Link]
Piecemeal Platform and Contracts
81
Android Legal Notice
Google Contracts as Antitrust Violation
83
Role of Mail System
84
House Report, May 15, 1844
Route Cross-Subsidization
86
The Postal Act of 1845
Sec. 1: Pricing
By Distance
87
The Postal Act of 1845
Sec. 2: Newspapers
90
The Postal Act of 1845
Railroads as Common
Carriers
91
Commerce Act, Feb 4, 1887
Just and Reasonable
Charges
94
FCC, Mar 14, 2002
State of U.S. Internet
Access
97
Brand X, 545 U.S. 967 (2005)
FCC Concluded
Exempt from Title II
98
Brand X, 545 U.S. 967 (2005)
FCC Entitled to
Chevron Deference
99
Brand X, 545 U.S. 967 (2005)
Bars VOIP Blocking
100
FCC, Mar 3, 2005
Four Principles
102
Comcast Acceptable Use Policy
Comcast Content Blocking
103
FCC, Aug 1, 2008
Anticompetitive Motive
104
FCC, Aug 1, 2008
Did the FCC Have the Power
to Regulate Comcast? No.
105
Comcast v FCC
(CADC Apr 6, 2010)
106
FCC Open Internet
Order, Dec 23, 2010
Three Key Rules:
Transparency
107
FCC Open Internet
Order, Dec 23, 2010
Three Key Rules:
No Blocking
108
FCC Open Internet
Order, Dec 23, 2010
Three Key Rules:
No Unreasonable
Discrimination
109
FCC Open Internet
Order, Dec 23, 2010
110
Verizon v FCC,
CADC, Jan 15, 2014
FCC Read of 706
is Reasonable
111
Verizon v FCC,
CADC, Jan 15, 2014
The Virtuous Circle
of Innovation
112
Verizon v FCC,
CADC, Jan 15, 2014
Meaning?: Only
Transparency Survives
113
Verizon v FCC,
CADC, Jan 15, 2014
400 Page Download
114
FCC Open Internet
Order, Mar 12, 2015
Three Problems (and Same
Rules for Fixed and Mobile)
115
FCC Open Internet
Order, Mar 12, 2015
Broad Classification
Authority Under Brand X
117
FCC Open Internet
Order, Mar 12, 2015
The Virtuous Innovation Cycle
118
FCC Open Internet
Order, Mar 12, 2015
Data Charges and Two-Sided Markets
119
[Link] by Facebook
Ad Blocking by Mobile
Carriers
121
Verizon PR, May 12, 2015
Week 5: The Day the
Music Died?
122
Era 1: One-by-One
Production
High, Symmetric
Copying Costs
123
British Library, Old English Bible,
Benedictine monk Aelfric (d. 1020)
Era 2: Gutenberg’s
Asymmetry
1455: Gutenberg
Bible printed using
movable type
124
British Library, Gutenberg Bible,
Genesis
U.S. Patent No. 2,297,691 on
125
Electrophotography (Oct 6, 1942)
The Great Relocking?
128
U.S. Patent No. 200,521
(Feb 19, 1878)
129
U.S. Patent No. 650,285
(May 22, 1900)
Piano Rolls Aren’t Copies
130
White-Smith, U.S., 1908
““§1 Exclusive Rights as to Copyrighted Works.
Any person entitled thereto, upon complying with
the provisions of this title, shall have the
exclusive right: (a) To print, reprint, publish,
copy, and vend the copyrighted work;”
131
1909 Copyright Act
Sales and Distribution
134
More Market Separation
and Price Discrimination
135
RCA v. Whiteman (2nd Cir. 1940)
Federal Radio Commission
136
Radio Act of 1927
“Anarchy Reigned in
the Ether”
138
Federal Communications Commission,
1st Annual Report (1936)
Understanding Public
Performance for Profit
139
Herbert v. The Shanley Co. (U.S., 1917)
Understanding Public
Performance for Profit
140
Herbert v. The Shanley Co. (U.S., 1917)
History of ASCAP/BMI
Antitrust Litigation
141
U.S. Department of Justice
Is the Blanket License Always
an Antitrust Violation?
142
BMI (U.S., 1979)
143
AHRA of 1992)
Does the Rio Violate
the AHRA?
144
Diamond (9th Cir. 1999)
“‘With iPod, Apple has invented a whole new
category of digital music player that lets you put
your entire music collection in your pocket and
listen to it wherever you go,’ said Steve Jobs,
Apple’s CEO. ‘With iPod, listening to music will
never be the same again.’”
145
Apple iPod PR, Oct 23, 2001
Knowledge, Control
and Failure to Act
146
Napster (9th Cir. 2001)
Promoting Infringement
147
MGM v. Grokster (U.S., 2005)
June 14, 2015 Copyright © 2009 Randal C. Picker 148
12 Songs
Consumers hate the limitations
150
Apple iPod PR, Oct 23, 2001
“Apple® today launched the iTunes® Music Store, a
revolutionary online music store that lets customers
quickly find, purchase and download the music
they want for just 99 cents per song, without
subscription fees.”
151
Apple iTunes Music Store PR, Apr 28, 2003
DRM and Platform Interoperability
and Competition
153
Steve Jobs, Thoughts on Music, Feb 6, 2007
Types of Products
154
Spotify Terms and Conditions of Use
Types of Products
155
Spotify Terms and Conditions of Use
Spotify Info Use and Sharing
156
Spotify Privacy Policy
Subscription Rises, Digital
Downloads Decline
157
Joshua Friedlander, RIAA
Apple Buys Beats
160
Blowing on the
Embers of TV
161
FCC, 8th Annual Report
(1942)
162
Life Magazine, Dec 30, 1946
Lifting the Freeze
163
FCC, 18th Annual Report
(1952)
Lifting the Freeze
Green Bay
2, 6
Milwaukee
4, 10, 12 Managing Interference
• Co-Channel Interference
• Adjacent Channel
Chicago Interference
2, 5, 7, 9, 11
165
Adopting a Broadcast
Standard for Color TV
166
FCC, Color TV Order
(1953)
CATV: Broadcaster or
Viewer?
168
Teleprompter Corp. (U.S., 1974)
1. Changed public performance right
to bring cable into the statute
2. Created statutory license regime for
secondary transmissions to ensure
cable access
169
Copyright Act of 1976
170 Senate Hearings on
Home Recording, 1982
171 Senate Hearings on
Home Recording, 1982
Substantial
Noninfringing Uses
172
Sony (U.S., 1984)
Commercially Significant
Noninfringing Uses
173
Sony (U.S., 1984)
Commercially Significant
Noninfringing Uses
174
Sony (U.S., 1984)
Alternative Remedies:
Royalty Payments
176
Sony (U.S., 1984)
Home Taping Isn’t
Productive
180
DVD Format/Logo Licensing Corp.
181
FCC, 4th Report and Order
on Advanced TV (1996)
Extra Spectrum I
Old Analog
New Digital
6 MHz Channel
Space between Channels 6 MHz Channel
to Reduce Interference
6 MHz Channel
6 MHz Channel
182
Extra Spectrum II
Try This With DTV Spectrum Savings
183
Use Broadcast Spectrum
to Distribute Software?
185
FCC, 4th Report and Order
on Advanced TV (1996)
186
Rives, The Castaway (1904)
Can’t Control
Subsequent Sales
188
17 USC 109
Netflix 1.0
189
Netflix Annual Report, 2002
The VCR (Sony 1984) and The
Remote DVR (Cablevision 2008)
Aereo (2014)?
191
Aereo (US 2014)
Many Small Antennas
= One Large Antenna
192
Aereo (US 2014)
Scalia: Volition Required
for Liability
193
Aereo (US 2014)
Scalia: Good Lawyers Find
Loopholes and Exploit Them
To?
198
P.L. 112-96 (Feb 22, 2012)
199
FCC Incentive Auctions
Week 7: The Mediated
Book
200
201
Google books, May 11, 2015
202
Google books: “thinking fast and slow”, May 11, 2015
203
Lewis Carroll, 1869 ed.
Nevertheless …:
Use v Access
204
Google Usage Guidelines
205
The Author’s Guild
Lawsuit, Sep 20, 2005
Permission Required
206
The Author’s Guild
Lawsuit, Sep 20, 2005
Settlement after 2.5 Years
of Negotiations
207
The Author’s Guild Lawsuit, Oct 28, 2008
Three Types of Works
209
GBS Settlement Decision
(Mar 22, 2011)
Fair Use and Transformative Works
210
Campbell (US 1994)
“Highly Transformative”
211
The Authors Guild v Google
(SDNY 2013)
Full Text Search
w/o Full Viewing
212
The Authors Guild v
HathiTrust (2nd Cir. 2014)
Full-Text Search is
Transformative
213
The Authors Guild v
HathiTrust (2nd Cir. 2014)
Sec 107 Fourth Factor
214
17 USC 107
“The HathiTrust Court understood the difference
between creating a searchable index of a book
and displaying the book itself, emphasizing that
“[i]mportantly, as we have seen, the HDL does not
allow users to view any portion of the books they
are searching.” HathiTrust, 2014 WL 2576342, at
*7 … .”
216
Authors Guild CA2 Reply Brief,
July 24, 2014
Introduction of Kindle
217
Amazon Kindle PR, Nov 19, 2007
Important Changes to Inventory:
Never out of stock, always ready to
meet unexpected demand, infinite
shelf space
218
Amazon Kindle PR, Nov 19, 2007
Data Gathering by Amazon
219
Amazon Terms of Use, Sept 17, 2014
“You provide most such information when you
search, buy, post, participate in a contest or
questionnaire, or communicate with customer
service. For example, you provide information
when you search for a product … .”
220
Amazon Privacy Notice, Mar 3, 2014
221
Picker, The Mediated Book (2009)
On-Demand Printing
Allows for Ads