SU PER INTE LLIGENCE

S T R AT E G Y
EXPERT V ER SION
arXiv:2503.05628v1 [[Link]] 7 Mar 2025

DA N HENDRYC KS ERIC SCH MIDT ALEXANDR WANG

 Strategy

Deterrence Nonproliferation Competitiveness

Detect and deter Reliably know the location Guarantee access to AI
destabilizing AI projects with of AI chips and prevent rogue chips through domestic
(cyber) espionage and sabotage actors from smuggling them manufacturing
 Problems

Strategic Competition Terrorism Loss of Control

States may race on AI capabilities Rogue actors could use AI systems An autonomous AI system
in destabilizing bids for economic to create bioweapons or launch could slip from
and military dominance cyberattacks on critical infrastructure meaningful human control
When should a dual-use technology be proliferated
without restrictions?
Dual-Use Technology

Offense-Defense
Balance?

Defense Dominant Offense Dominant

Proliferate Widely Catastrophic?

No Yes
(localized harm) (scalable harm)

Debateable Limit Proliferation

 Escalation MAD vs MAIM
U.S. Nuclear U.S. AI
Recursion Not Controlled Omnicide
China Maims Project Aggression Aggression
U.S. Begins
Do Superintelligence China Outpaces U.S. Create Superweapon US Crushed U.S. Develops
Manhattan Project Mutual Mutual Developing
Recursion Controlled Disarmament Nuclear Weapons Disarmament Powerful AI
China Does Not Maim No Superweapon Escalation (Unstable) (Unstable) U.S. AI Project
Sabotaged
Recursion Controlled
Create Superweapon Crush China
U.S Outpaces China

U.S. Bid for

Soviet Nuclear Mutual Assured U.S. Nuclear Chinese AI Mutual Assured Strategic
Recursion Not Controlled Omnicide
Destruction First Strike Aggression AI Malfunction
Aggression Soviets China Begins
Dominance
(Stable) (Unstable) (Stable) (Unstable)
Develop Developing
Nuclear Powerful AI
Weapons
Chinese AI
Soviet Nuclear Project Chinese Bid
Mutual Mutual
First Strike Sabotaged for Dominance
Destruction Destruction
(Unstable) (Unstable)
 Nonproliferation

Compute Security Information Security AI Security

Reliably know the location Limit proliferation of Prevent rogue actors from
of AI chips and potentially catastrophic dual-use accessing potentially catastrophic
prevent their smuggling AI weights to rogue actors dual-use AI capabilities
Know-Your-Customer Input/Output Filters Refusal Training Circuit Breakers Monitoring
 Competitiveness
Military Economy
Manufacture drones and Guarantee access to
carefully integrate AI AI chips through
into military command domestic manufacturing
and control and export controls

Law Politics
Extend legal requirements Maintain political stability
to AI agents in the face
to facilitate commerce of mass automation