Futures and Options Risk Management
Futures and Options Risk Management
1. Futures Contracts:
Pricing Futures (on stocks)
(using “risk-free arbitrage strategy”) Or, “Cash-and-carry Arbitrage”
➢ What makes them different from speculators, is that the trades initiated by arbitrageurs
are (almost) risk-free.
➢ So when the trades are initiated, the arbitrageur knows for certain, what profit she will
make (in the future).
➢ We illustrate the above by assuming the quoted futures price Fq =102 is different from
the “fair” futures price , where the “fair” (no-arbitrage) futures price is given by the
formula F = S( 1+ r T) = $101
➢ Quoted Futures Price Fq = $102 (for maturity and delivery in 3m, T=1/4 year )
F = S (1+rT) = $101.
➢ Borrow $100 from bank and buy the stock @ S=100, today (on NYSE)
➢ Deliver stock (to Chicago) and receive from futures contract = $102
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Riskless profit = $1
Lots of arbitrageurs are selling futures contracts in Chicago, this leads to a fall in Fq to Fq =
$101 (say) , at which point Fq = F= S (1+rT), which is the “fair” futures price.
➢ The “correct” futures price must equal S ( 1 + r.T ), otherwise riskless (arbitrage) profits
can be made, hence at all times we should observe all traders quote a futures price:
F = S ( 1 + r .T ) = $101
Arbitrage at Maturity: FT = ST
➢ At maturity of the futures contract we must have FT = ST
Arbitrage at Maturity: FT = ST
➢ Suppose on maturity date, T of futures contract (e.g. 25th September)
➢ Then buy ‘low’ at ST =98 on NYSE , and at same time T, sell one future contract (on
AT&T) at FT = 100 (in Chicago).
➢ Deliver the AT&T stock (electronically) to the CH in Chicago to settle the futures contract
➢ CH will credit your “margin account” by FT =$100. You have made a riskless profit of $2
(= FT - ST )
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If the “implied repo rate” does not equal the actual interest cost of borrowing (ie. the
”actual repo rate”) then a (risk-free) arbitrage opportunity is possible.
The concept can be applied to any futures contract (e.g. the spot asset could be a stock,
stock index, oil, gold, T-Bill etc)
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➢ Speculation with futures, is really speculation about future movements in the price of
the underlying asset S.
➢ If you think S will increase (fall) in the future, then a “futures speculator” should today,
buy (sell) futures contracts (today).
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➢ Pension fund (M/s Midas) has experienced capital gain over last 10 months on a
‘diversified $2m equity portfolio (“specific risk” has been eliminated by diversification) –
performance will be assessed in 2 months time (15th March) by trustees.
➢ M/s Midas believes the market will be more volatile (risky) than usual over the next 2
months (say).
➢ Wants to ‘protect’(hedge) the portfolio over next 2 months (15th Jan to 15th March),
from this volatility.
➢ This means that the change in value of your stocks plus any profit / loss on the futures
position (after closing out in 2 months time) will be close to zero.
➢ You can use any futures which matures after 15th March (2 month hedge period)
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4. Estimate the term structure (i.e. Given quoted IRF prices F, we extract (LIBOR) forward
rates (= f % pa) and then from these we extract spot rates, y ) – not done here.
“Underlying asset” in contract is a 90-day (3-month fixed term) LIBORT Eurodollar deposit,
beginning at the maturity date of the futures T, & ending at T+90 days.
■ Futures Contract size VF = $1m per contract (“notional value of one futures”).
■ Duration of 90-day futures is DF = 0.25 years (ie. 90/360 is day count convention)
■ Today’s Quoted Futures “price, F0,T ” is called the “IMM index” (Chicago)
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➢ Today you buy (go long) a (European) “March-80” call option on AT&T stock.
Today (1st Jan) you have to pay a call option (price) premium C = $3 say.
➢ This gives you the right (but not the obligation) to buy (ie. “take delivery”)
➢ on the maturity date T of the option contract (eg, T =28th March, say) at a (strike) price
K=$80, agreed today (on 1st Jan).
➢So, you can choose at T, whether or not to “exercise the call option” and take delivery of the
stock or to “do nothing” and “throw away” the option (ie. not exercise)
Types of Option
➢ European Option can only be exercised on the maturity date
➢ Note that many of the most actively traded options have a “futures contract” (and not the
“cash market asset”) as the “underlying asset”.
Examples.
Options on S&P500 futures contract (not options on the S&P500 (stock) index)
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➢ Pension fund intends to buy stocks in the future and is worried that stock prices will rise.
pension fund will pay for delivery of the stock (in Chicago) at T (28th March). (if we
ignore the call premium).
b) But a long call, also allows pension fund to take advantage of low stock prices (on
the NYSE) should they occur.
➢ For this ‘flexibility’ the pension fund pays the call premium of C = $3 (today).
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➢The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) in Chicago randomly assigns a writer (“Ms Short”) to
deliver the underlying asset, to “Mr Long” (one day before expiry/maturity).
The writer, M/s Short has to “post” an “initial margin” payment with her (Chicago) broker. This
is a “good faith deposit” to ensure M/s Short does not default on the option contract in the
future ( if ST > K).
“Initial margin” is about 15% of current value of the 100 stocks in the option contract (15% x
100 S0 ) plus a “deposit” equal to the option premium received from the sale of the call (=100
x C) .
The initial margin can usually be paid in cash, T-bills or other securities.
There may also be “variation margin” payments in the future, if M/s Short’swritten option
position begins to lose value (ie. if the stock price increases)
➢ Ms Short has the ‘choice’ to close out her position, by buying (back) a March-80 call option
from Mr X (at whatever is the market price of the call on 15th Feb).
Then Ms Short is “out of the market” and no delivery of the underlying stock at T (on 28th
March) is required from her
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Put Options
Definition plus Delivery & Cash Settlement
1 st Jan
➢ Buyer (Mr Long) of the March-70 put option (on AT&T stock)
➢ For this privilege, Mr Long pays the put option premium (price),P = 2 on 1st Jan
either:
or
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➢ Expect S to fall in the future, then buy a put today (at a cost of P=$2).
➢ If S rises (above K) , the put is not exercised but the most you lose is the put premium,
P = $2.
“Insurance” using a Long Put Hold stock and buy European Put:
1 st Jan
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➢ Pension fund (L&G) already holds stocks currently worth S0 =70 and fears a
➢ fall in S by T=28th March, when it intends to sell its stocks, to pay out
➢ Today, L&G pension fund buys an ATM put (K=S0 = 70, T= 3 months) .
➢ For L&G how does holding (both) Stock + Put provide “insurance” ?
➢ L&G has “locked in” a minimum price (K=70) L&G will receive (at T = 28th
➢ March) when L&G exercises the put by “delivering” the stocks it already
➢ If ST > K, L&G does not exercise the put option but it can sell its stocks
➢ “Stock+Put” also allows L&G pension fund to sell its stocks at a high price in the future, at ST
on the NYSE, should this occur on T= 28th March.
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➢ You buy call options (@ K1 =102) to gamble on the stock price increasing (ie. If ST >> K1 )
and the long call also sets a lower limit to your downside losses.
➢ But you also choose to “cap” your upside potential by selling a call @ K2 =110 (> K1 ) .
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➢ Implied volatility is the (option) market’s forecast of stock return volatility, , over life
of option – if we assume B-S formula is correct.
1) Stock returns (contin comp, log returns) are (niid) normally distributed
Volatility Smile
➢ Today, options with 10 different strike prices K (but same maturity date T) are available.
➢ Today you can calculate 10 values of imp using the10 (different ) quoted options’
prices (on say USD/GBP exchange rate) and the B-S equation.
➢ According to assumptions of B-S model , all these ten values of imp should be constant
and (hence) equal (for all 10 values of K).
➢ Hence there is something wrong with B-S assumptions and the BS formula.
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Portfolio DELTA
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Dynamic Delta-Hedge
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Dynamic Delta-Hedge
Rule for dynamic delta-hedge of one written call by MS sales desk
- As the stock price changes, each day, so does the call premium and the call’s-delta (via
Black-Scholes)
- As delta changes MS needs to “rebalance” that is, adjust the number of stocks each day,
to hedge the (one) written call by MS.
1) Look at the outcome for MS hedge position at time t (< T) before maturity
- After closing out all MS positions in calls, stocks and paying back any bank debt then MS
net position, should be close to zero, at any time t , before maturity
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- Debt levels D1 and DT (ie. Outstanding MS Bank Loan with Citibank) These are calculated
by me from “daily simulations” of the stock price (which is stochastic
GAMMA
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Portfolio
Gamma
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Delta-Gamma Approximation
Gamma Hedge
VEGA
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Depends on:
- and how much (over 1- day say) you think the stock price will change.
The more frequently you rebalance your delta and gamma-hedged positions the smaller is
the hedging error.
But this may involve high transactions costs (i.e. large bid-ask spreads, commissions and
“price impact” of large sales or purchases), when rebalancing by buying or selling options
and stocks
Option sales desks of banks, usually sell more (ATM) options (to pension funds and
insurance companies) than they buy, & end up with large net negative gamma and vega.
Hence banks need to purchase ‘other’ options (on the same underlying) to hedge these
two risks – this may be expensive (in terms of bid-ask spreads and commissions).
If the options happen to move ‘in’ or ‘out’ of money, gamma and vega get smaller (see
“bell curve” diagrams, earlier) and then there is less need to hedge these “two Greeks”.
But you may still need to delta hedge (eg. daily).
All your hedge positions have to be continuously rebalanced as “the Greeks” change over
time, change with different values for the underlying S and the market’s view of volatility.
But you don’t always have to hedge all the “Greek risks” – depends how “large” they are
and on how much risk you are prepared to tolerate.
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Used for stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, futures where portfolio return is
(approximately) linear in individual returns and returns are assumed to be niid
Practical Issues
Portfolio of Stocks
- For each country’s stock returns, use “single index model” SIM
- Treat stocks held in foreign country (e.g Germany) as equal $ amounts held in “foreign
stocks ” + “spot FX risk” , - that is, as “two assets”
Portfolio of Bonds
1) Use the duration approximation (easiest) – for parallel shifts in yield curve
2) Consider each bond as a series of “zero coupon bonds” (“zeros”) – for non parallel
shifts in the yield curve
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Portfolio of Stocks
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VaR: Bonds
1. VaR : Zero-Coupon Bond
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Computational time in MCS is in generating random draws for εt = (ε1, ε2 , …. ε252 ) , for
say 252 trading days
“Antithetics” takes these 252 random values and uses them with the signs changed ,
that is we also use - (ε1, ε2 , …. ε252 ).
Note we have not simulated a further 252 values of εt , we have just changed the signs
of the original 252 generated random values
This gives us 2 simulation paths for stock price and 2 possible call premia C+ and C- .
Repeat, MCS for “m-runs” and the best “antithetic estimate” of the call premium is:
Using the 252 random values of εt and their negative values -εt , we obtain ”two call
premia for price of one”
Hence, we obtain more accuracy for any given number of simulations (=m)
(compared with the standard MCS method).
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fAMCS = 7 (say)
“New” improved control variate estimate for the Asian option is:
This is a non parametric method since we do not estimate any variances or covariances or
assume normality.
- and whatever distribution the historical data embodies ( [Link]’s t distribution, mixture
of normals etc).
- Hence our HS-VaR forecasts implicitly include all these “features” of the historical data
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➢ (eg. Fabozzi).
➢ “Real World” uses “simple” LIBOR interest rates & day count conventions
➢ I will try and chart our way through this – as best I can.
➢ When we get to the FRA itself, you will see it’s pretty straightforward and uses “simple
LIBOR interest” and LIBOR day count conventions.
➢ (The main source of complexity, is linking together all these different interest rate
conventions – which is NOT our focus!!!)
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Interest rate swaps – hedging interest rate risk, pricing the swap,
valuation of swap..
❑ Swaps are privately arranged contracts (OTC) where two parties agree to exchange cash
flows in the future based on a pre-arranged formula
❑ Swap dealers are usually large banks (eg. JPMorgan, Goldmans, Citibank) who act as market
makers & provide swaps for corporates (e.g. Apple, British Airways)
❑ Now it is more usual that a “Clearing House” ensures contracts are honored (by requiring
margin payments/collateral).
❑ Largest markets are for interest rate swaps (IRS) , but other swaps (eg. currency swaps,
energy swaps) are also actively traded.
Example:
➢ Microsoft currently has floating rate loan, principal Q= $100m with Citibank, to run for a
further 5 years on which it pays a floating interest rate (LIBOR +0.5% pa), with interest rate
resets, each year (h =“tenor”).
➢ If Microsoft takes out an interest rate swap (IRS) with Merrills, to receive LIBOR and pay a
fixed interest rate (= swap rate, sp = 6% pa)
➢ then
➢ Bank Loan + IRS means Microsoft now effectively has a fixed rate loan
➢ (see below)
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Pricing an “at market” Swap: Calculating the (“at market”) swap rate , sp
Note: “At market” means the floating cash flows are determined by LIBOR (not LIBOR+spread)
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Using Duration To calculate the (approx.) Change in Value of the Fixed-Leg of the
swap
➢ Using “duration” gives an approximate value for dVFix ,
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