Understanding Probability Concepts
Understanding Probability Concepts
PROBABILITY
Probability plays an important part in our daily lives. The study of chance has applications
in weather forecasting, predicting disease, political campaigns, insurance and gambling.
Insurance companies use probability to assess the risk of an event occuring. Statistics
show that the age and sex of a driver affects the chances of a car accident, and the more
distance a person drives, the higher the risk of an accident. These statistics determine how
much drivers pay to insure their cars.
20 8
SkillCheck 8
a b c d
2 6
3
0.7 0.56
Irrational fears
3 25
a b c d
Which term best describes the chance that the next baby born in Australia is a girl?
Skillsheet
1
Is the chance of each event greater than or less than ?
2
7
a You being home by 4 p.m. this afternoon
b You winning Lotto one day
c You listening to the radio today
d You learning to drive next year
e You going interstate this year
f You sending a text message on your phone today
Probability 8.01
In probability (chance) situations, the set of all possible outcomes is called the sample space.
For example, if a coin is tossed, the sample space is {heads, tails}. If each outcome has an equal
chance, then we say that each outcome is equally likely.
An event consists of one or more outcomes. For example, the event that a baby is born in a
Skillsheet
summer month consists of the outcomes {December, January, February}. An event has the
Sample
P( E ) =
of an event
A favourable outcome is one of the outcomes in the event that you want, whose probability
you are calculating.
The probability of an event can be written as a fraction, decimal or percentage. For example,
1
the probability of tossing tails on a coin can be written as , 0.5 or 50%.
2
Example 1
a Write the sample space for this spinner.
Is each outcome equally likely?
Worksheets
b
Find the probability that the spinner lands on red.
Basic
probability
c
Find the probability that the spinner lands on
Games of
Solution
The sample space is {red, yellow, green, blue}.
Puzzles
Greedy Pig a
game
1
Each coloured region is equal in size of the circle ,
4
Spinner
1 One chance in 4
Basic
probability
4
Theoretical c P(red) =
d
3
4
=
0 1 1
impossible 2 certain 8.01
Example 2
A die is rolled. Find the probability that the number rolled is:
a divisible by 3 b a factor of 6
c less than 7 (answer as a percentage) d at least 4 (answer as a decimal)
Solution
There are 6 possible outcomes when a die is rolled: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
2 1
P(divisible by 3) = = 2 numbers {3 and 6}
6 3
a
4 2
P(a factor of 6) = = 4 numbers {1, 2, 3, 6}
6 3
b
6
P(less than 7) = = 100% All outcomes are less than 7: a certain event
c 6
3 1
P(at least 4) = = = 0.5 3 numbers {4, 5, 6}.
6 2
d
for one spin, calculate the probability that the spinner lands on red.
C
ii
a b c
2 For each experiment, count the number of possible outcomes and state whether each
outcome is equally likely. C
a tossing a coin
b the result of a rugby match when Australia plays New Zealand
c the first letter of a person’s name
d the gender of a baby
e the last digit of a car number plate
f the result of a driving test
a
b selecting a vowel from the letters of the alphabet
c having a house number greater than 4 but less than 10
d having a birthday in a month beginning with A
e living in a state of Australia
f being in a high school grade
4 A money box contains 4 $2 coins, 3 $1 coins, 2 50c coins, 6 20c coins and 5 10c coins. It is
shaken and one coin falls out at random. Calculate:
EXAMPLE
2
5 A jar of lollies contains 5 red, 3 green, 6 yellow and 2 blue lollies. Taylor
selects one lolly from the jar at random. Calculate each probability.
a P(green) b P(yellow or blue)
c P(traffic light colour), as a decimal
P(not yellow), as a percentage
d
6 What is the probability that a person randomly chosen has a birthday in a month
beginning with the letter J? Select the correct answer A, B, C or D. R
1 1 1 1
12 6 4 3
A B C D
a
b Are all outcomes equally likely? Explain your answer.
8 A packet of jelly beans has 4 yellow, 3 red, 6 green and 3 black jelly beans remaining.
You tip the packet and one jelly bean rolls out at random. What is the probability that it
is not a red jelly bean? Select A, B, C or D.
4 3 3 13 8.01
12 16 13 16
A B C D
10 Elena has 2 $5 notes, 4 $10 notes and 3 $20 notes in her wallet. If she selects one note at
random, what is the probability that it is a $20 note? Select A, B, C or D.
3 60 1 20
35 110 3 35
A B C D
2
a b c d
3
0.1 0.6 2%
4
e f g h
cannot happen better than average chance even chance
good chance very likely almost impossible
A B C
Hearts:
Diamonds:
Clubs:
Spades:
13 The weather forecaster says that the probability of a rainy day in April is 30%.
a Is this a high probability or a low probability?
b About how many rainy days are expected in April?
14 Your maths teacher calls out a name randomly from your class roll.
What is the probability that it is:
a your name? b a girl’s name?
c someone aged 14? d someone with brown hair?
15 An Esky contains 8 cans of lemonade, 5 cans of orange drink and 2 cans of lime drink.
How many cans of cola must be added so that the probability of randomly selecting: R
a a lemonade is 50%? b an orange drink is 0.25?
1 2
a lime drink is ? a cola can is ?
12 5
c d
In probability, complementary events are events that together make up all the possible
outcomes.
Suppose that there is an equal chance of being born on any day of the week: Monday to
Sunday.
1
a Find P(orange).
b Find P(not orange).
c What do you notice about P(orange) + P(not orange)?
A baby is selected at random from the maternity section of a large hospital. There is an
equal chance of the baby being a boy or a girl.
3
a Find P(boy).
b Find P(girl).
c What do you notice about P(boy) + P(girl)?
4 Copy and complete the following sentence.
The probability of an event _____ the probability of its complementary event must
always equal _____.
Because an event and its complement cover all possible outcomes, the sum of their probabilities
Complementary
events
Example 3
A pack of 20 cards contains 10 red, 6 yellow and 4 green cards. One card is drawn from the
Video
pack at random. Find the probability that this card is:
yellow b not yellow c not green
Complementary
events
a
Note that P (yellow) + P (not yellow) = 3 + 7 = 1, which covers all possible outcomes.
8.02
10 10
Note that P (green) + P (not green) = 1 + 4 = 1, which covers all possible outcomes.
5 5
Complementary events U F PS R C
a b
c Selecting a white chocolate from a box containing white and brown chocolates
d Rolling a 6 on a die e Winning a game of hockey
f Selecting a hearts card from a deck of cards
g Being born in winter h Being under 15 years old
2 A pile of 11 cards is placed on a desk. There are 6 red cards and the rest are blue. If one
card is selected at random, what is the probability that it is not red? Select the correct
EXAMPLE
answer A, B, C or D.
3
5 6 6 5
11 11 5 6
A B C D
4 There are 6 books on a shelf: 3 Mathematics, 2 History and 1 Sport. If one book is chosen
at random, what is the probability of selecting:
a a History book? b a book that is not History?
c a book that is not Sport? d a book that is not Science?
56 450 560 56
A B C D
6 What is the probability that your maths teacher was born in a month:
a beginning with the letter M?
b that does not begin with the letter M?
7 What is the decimal probability that a mobile phone number selected at random does
not end in 0 or 1?
8 Tahnee buys 5 tickets in a raffle in which 1000 tickets are sold and there is only one
prize. What is the probability of Tahnee not winning the prize?
9 A jar contains 40 red, 25 blue, 50 black and 15 white jelly beans. One jelly bean is
selected at random. What is the probability that it is:
a white? b not white? c not yellow?
d not blue or black? e not red? f not black or white?
1
The probability of choosing a Jack from a pack of cards is .
13
a
b The chance of shooting a basketball hoop is 61%.
c The probability of winning a prize is 0.15.
11 In a bag of toy cars there are only 3 colours: red, blue and white. If you take out a car at
random, the chance of it being red is 0.4, and the chance of it being white is 0.25. R
a What is the chance of selecting ‘red or white’?
b What is the chance of the car you select being blue?
c If the bag holds 40 cars, how many of each colour would you expect to find?
d What is the chance of the car you select being pink?
12 4 students, Sue, Liam, Emily and Matt, write their names on cards and place the cards in
a bag. A card is chosen, without looking, to select the class captain.
a Find the probability that Emily was not chosen.
b Find the probability that the captain is a boy.
c What is the chance that the captain is not a boy?
d What is the chance that the captain is the teacher?
13 The probability that it will rain this weekend is 85%. What is the probability that it won’t
rain?
14 Which of the following is the complementary event to ‘winning a race’?
Select A, B, C or D. R C
A coming last B coming second or third
C not winning the race D coming second
16 The letters of the word PROBABILITY are written on separate cards and one is selected
randomly. What is the probability that a letter drawn out is:
a not P? b not a vowel? c not I? d not A or B?
17 In a family there are Mum and Dad, 2 daughters and a son. Each day, they take it in
turns to wash the dishes after dinner. If you visit the family, what is the chance that the
person washing up is:
a male? b not a parent? c not Mum? d not male?
18 A random 4-digit number is to be formed from the digits 1, 3, 5 and 8. What is the
probability that the number will: PS R
a start with the digit 5? b be an odd number? c be greater than 5000?
Venn diagrams:
Global
habitats
Juan
Abde
b
How many people drive a car or ride a
Puzzles
motorbike?
Venn diagrams c
group clues
Solution
a 12 people were surveyed.
b 7 people drive a car. The people within the Car circle.
c 11 people drive a car or ride a motorbike. All the people within the circles.
Sue and Labib can drive a car and ride a bike. The people in the intersection of the
circles.
d
‘And’ vs ‘or’
For 2 categories or events A and B, the phrase ‘A and B’ means to have both of them occurring
together. For example, ‘to drive a car’ and ‘to ride a motorbike’ in Example 4 means to do both
things.
8.03
Example 5
30 students in a class were surveyed on how they relaxed after school.
• 18 play on their computer
Video
• 15 play sport
Venn
diagrams 2
i
plays sport, but not on their
computer
plays sport or on their
computer, but not both
ii
[Link]/skynesher
Solution
When drawing Venn diagrams always
begin with the intersection.
a
12 + 9 21 7
P(plays sport or computer but not both) =
30 30 10
ii = =
21 9 12
How many students: R C
were surveyed?
8
a
b liked Maths but not Science?
c liked Maths or Science?
d liked Maths or Science but not both?
e did not like either subject?
f liked Maths and Science? Select the correct answer A, B, C or D.
A 9 B 21 C 33 D 42
Chocolate
Strawberry
15
[Link]/Barcin
How many people liked neither strawberry
nor chocolate?
c
Select A, B, C or D.
57 368 425 57
440 440 440 425
A B C D
5 The Tourism Council surveyed 130 people to find whether they prefer New South Wales
or Queensland as a holiday destination. R C
EXAMPLE
5
6 a Draw a Venn diagram representing the eye colours of this group of students.
Blue eyes 32
R C
Brown eyes 38
Neither blue nor brown eyes 10
b Are these groups mutually exclusive or not? Why?
c How many students are in the group?
d How many students have blue or brown eyes?
e How many students have blue and brown eyes?
What is the percentage probability that a student chosen at random from this group
does not have brown eyes?
f
IT C
If one student is chosen at random, what is the probability that the student studies
Chemistry?
b
Example 6
50 students were surveyed on whether they preferred dogs or cats more as pets. The results
were sorted into this two-way table.
Worksheets
Two-way
tables
Students who like cats or who are boys but not both = 12 + 15
= 27
ii
23
Probability of selecting a student who likes dogs =
50
[Link]/Eric Isselee
Example 7
A group of 50 Year 9 students were grouped in
a Venn diagram according to whether they took
Chinese Art
Chinese or Art as an elective subject.
Represent this information in a two-way table. 21 9 12
Solution
From the Venn diagram:
• 9 students take Chinese and Art
Chinese Not Chinese
below. R C
EXAMPLE
6 Boys 13 2
Boys 75 200
Girls 40
Total 145
i
What is the chance that a child randomly selected is a girl and likes carrots?
Select A, B, C or D.
d
29 11 7
1
62 31 31
A B C D
5 The Venn diagram below shows the number of students who participate in swimming or
bowling regularly. Copy and complete the two-way table for this data. R C
EXAMPLE 8.04
7
5 Swimming Bowling
swimming
11 20
Bowling
34
Not bowling
Total
42 25 3
GPS No GPS Total
navigation navigation
12
4-doors
Not 4-doors
Total
b A car is chosen at random from the car yard. What is the probability that it has:
i GPS navigation? ii 4 doors?
iii 4 doors and GPS navigation? iv no GPS navigation?
7 A group of university students were tested to see if they needed glasses. The table shows
the results. R C
Needs glasses Does not need glasses Total
Male 22 82
Female 85 98
Total 145
Outcome Frequency
1
[Link]/Olga Popova
Compare your results with the simulated results of other members in your class. Are
they similar or different? Are they what you and your classmates expected? Discuss.
5
b 5 × 60 = 5 × 6 × 10 = 30 × 10 = 300 8.04
c 12 × 40 = 12 × 4 × 10 = 48 × 10 = 480
b 200 ÷ 50 = 200 ÷ 10 ÷ 5 = 20 ÷ 5 = 4
1 There were 28 students on the school trip to Japan: 17 were born in Australia, 3 in Italy,
review
2 The 7 letters of the word SUCCESS are written on separate cards. A card is selected at
random and the letter noted. R C
a List the sample space.
b Is each letter equally likely to be selected? Explain.
c Find the chance that the letter chosen:
i is an S ii is a vowel
iii is not a C iv is also a letter of the word FAIL.
3 Alex selects one sock at random from a bag containing 2 black, 2 blue and 2 red socks.
List the sample space.
R C
a
b Find the probability that Alex selects:
i a blue sock ii a black sock iii a pink sock
What is the complementary event to choosing a red sock? What is the probability of
this event?
c
4 A spinner is evenly divided into 5 sections numbered 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. For one spin, find
the probability, as a percentage, that it lands on:
a 2 b an even number
c a number less than 5 d a number at most 5
5 Sophia bought 4 tickets in a lottery in which there were 100 000 tickets. What is the
probability that she won first prize? Select the correct answer A, B, C or D.
A 0.000 0025 B 0.000 25 C 0.04 D 0.000 04
7 Stathis flipped a coin 7 times and a tail showed each time. What is the chance of a tail
showing on the next toss? R
9 The probability that a carton of eggs contains any broken eggs is 0.1. Find the probability
that a carton contains no broken eggs.
10 In a tennis tournament there are 60 players. Of these, 34 are from NSW, 20 are from
8.05
Victoria and 6 are from Queensland. Find the probability that a player selected at
YEAR 9
PATH
13 In a bag there are lollies of 3 different colours: red, green and purple. The chance of
taking out a red lolly at random is 0.5, the chance of it being green is 0.2. PS R C
a What is the chance of the lolly being purple?
b If the bag holds 10 lollies, how many of each colour would you expect to find?
c If a second bag had 100 lollies, how many of each would you expect to find?
Which bag would give you a better chance of picking a red lolly? Explain your
answer.
d
We can also determine the probability of an event based on the results of an experiment or trial
Relative
frequencies
that has been repeated many times, such as the safety testing of different cars, or rely on past
Coins
statistics, such as the number of rainy days in April. This type of probability is called observed
probability
A page of
spinners
Relative frequency
number of times the event happened
P( E ) =
Experimental
or P ( E ) =
review
total frequency
Interactive
Plinko
probability
The actual number of times an event occurs over repeated trials in an experiment is
called the observed frequency.
Presentation
Theoretical
probability
Example 8
Declan rolled a die 60 times and recorded the results in a table.
Videos
Experimental Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6
probability
Observed
Frequency 10 11 13 7 8 11
For 60 rolls, what is the expected frequency of rolling a 5 or 6? How does this compare
a
1
Expected frequency of 5s or 6s = × 60 Probability × number of trials
3
b
= 20
From the table, the observed frequency of 5s and 6s = 8 + 11 = 19, which is close to the
expected frequency, 20. 8.06
8 + 11 19
Observed P (5 or 6 ) = =
60 60
c
1 Harper rolled a biased die 60 times and the number 2 came up 15 times.
What is the observed probability of rolling a 2?
EXAMPLE
8
a
b If the same die was rolled 500 times, what is the expected frequency of rolling a 2?
2 a Copy this table.
Flip a coin 50 times and record the results in the
Outcome Tally Frequency
table.
b Head
of flipping:
c
Total
i a head ii a tail
d Find, as a decimal, the theoretical probability of flipping:
i a head ii a tail
e How do the observed probabilities compare with the theoretical probabilities? C
3 Vinh spun this spinner 80 times and found the following results:
frequency? C
c What is the observed probability of spinning red?
d What is the theoretical probability of spinning yellow?
Find the expected frequency of spinning yellow over 80 spins and compare this with
the observed frequency. C
e
Number of matches 48 49 50 51 52 53
Number of matchboxes 3 6 20 16 4 1
the table.
b 1
2
an even number
5
iii
When rolling a die 72 times, what is the
6
i 4?
ii a number greater than 2? iii an even number?
How do your expected frequencies compare with the observed frequencies from
the table?
e
6 Sefina tossed a coin many times and got 135 heads and 115 tails.
Calculate, as a percentage, the observed probability of tails with this coin.
Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6
Frequency 11 13 9 13 12 22
Technology
Tossing a coin
In this activity, a spreadsheet is used to simulate the tossing of a coin. The computer can
Worksheet
quickly generate either a 1 (representing heads) or a 2 (tails). We will use the command
Coin toss
experiment
In cell A2, enter the formula =INT(RAND()*2+1). Press Enter and either 1 or 2 should
Die rolling
Spinner
Select cell A2 and Fill Down to cell A11 to generate random numbers (1 or 2),
simulator
Your results will probably be different from those of other students in the class. Compare.
Simulating a
spinner
4
Copy the table below and in the first blank row record your results for Trials 1−10
(the numbers of heads and tails in your first 10 ‘tosses’).
5 Interactive
Plinko
probability
Investigation
Family with 4 children
A simulation is an experiment that imitates a real event, used to estimate the probability of
the event. For example, the sex of a newborn baby can be simulated by computer/calculator/
spreadsheet, tossing a coin, rolling a die or selecting a card at random from a deck of cards.
What is the probability that for a family with 4 children, all 4 children are girls?
Determine a method of simulating the genders of the 4 children in a family, such as
tossing 4 coins together or using a spreadsheet to generate 4 random numbers.
1
Run another 50 trials of this simulation to achieve a total of 100 trials, and calculate the
observed probability that all 4 children are girls.
6
Copy and complete the following Venn diagram to represent the survey results.
Car Tablet
1
3
UHD TV
2 2 dice are rolled and the numbers are multiplied together to arrive at a score.
a Copy and complete this table to show all possible products.
1st die
× 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1 2 3
2 2 4
2nd die
3 3 6
4 12
5
6
CHAPTER 8 REVIEW
outcome overlapping probability probable
Puzzle
Probability
Topic summary
• Write in your own words what you have learnt in this chapter.
• Write which parts of the chapter were new to you.
• Copy and complete:
Worksheet
Probability
Observed and
Complementary
expected Probability
events
frequencies
Probability
problems
1 There are 6 red, 3 yellow and 4 blue hair ties in a drawer. One hair tie is selected at random.
What is the probability that it is red? Select the correct answer A, B, C, or D.
8.01
1 6 6 13
13 13 7 6
A B C D
2 A die is rolled. Find the probability that the number that comes up is:
TEST YOURSELF 8
5
b
5 at least 5
7
i ii
iii 5 or less iv less than 5
8
5 A golfer has a probability of 74% of sinking a putt. What is the probability that he will miss
a putt?
8.02
6 A truck carries 240 boxes of hand sanitiser, 305 boxes of soap, 335 boxes of paper and
120 boxes of pens. The driver chooses one box at random. What is the probability that it is:
8.02
7 Mumps
How many children are in the group?
16 28
a
How many children have had the mumps and
22
the measles?
b
d What is the probability that one child selected at random from this group has had:
i the measles?
ii the mumps or the measles?
iii neither the mumps nor the measles?
TV sport 8.04
Soccer 28 15
Not soccer 20 7
TEST YOURSELF 8
a
b How many people watch soccer?
c How many people watch soccer or cricket?
d What is the probability that a person selected at random from the survey:
i watches neither soccer nor cricket?
ii watches soccer or cricket, but not both?
iii does not watch cricket?
iv does not watch soccer?
9 Represent the data in the Venn diagram on the two-way table. 8.04
12
Tall Not tall
Tall Blond
Blond
3
Not blond
10 5
10 An 8-sided die has 2 red, 3 white, 1 blue and 2 yellow faces. If the die is rolled, find the
decimal probability that the face that comes up is:
8.05