WORKING PAPER

Workstream 1

Defining congestion

February 2019
Working draft vD
Table of contents
1 Purpose 1

2 Congestion – What is it and why does it occur? 2

An introduction to the phenomenon 2

2.1.1 The objective phenomenon 2

2.1.2 The subjective experience 4

2.1.3 How is congestion defined? 4

The causes of congestion 5

2.2.1 Types of congestion 5

2.2.2 Behaviours of individuals 6

2.2.3 Cities and congestion 7

The congestion problem 7

2.3.1 Network efficiency 7

2.3.2 Regional accessibility 8

Identifying and measuring congestion 8
The theory of congestion pricing 10

2.5.1 Early research 10

2.5.2 Optimal pricing in relation to network performance 11

3 Auckland situation 13
Where is congestion experienced today? 14
Different causes of congestion in Auckland 18
Variances in congestion levels 19
What do Aucklanders think about congestion in the region? 20
Costs 20
Future state 22

3.6.1 Regional Land Transport Plan 22

3.6.2 Technological changes 24

4 What are we trying to achieve with congestion pricing? 26

What would this mean for people? 26
What would people perceive? 26
What does success look like? 27
Congestion charging in the real world 29
We need to consider a range of options 29
1 Purpose
This paper introduces the phenomenon of traffic congestion and describes its causes, how it can be
measured and why it is a problem. The phenomenon is discussed in the Auckland context and outlines
reasons why traffic demand management polices need to be considered for the city. The concept of
congestion charging is introduced as a tool for traffic demand management – and a framework for
assessing potential congestion charging options is presented.

1
2 Congestion – What is it and why does it occur?
An introduction to the phenomenon
The term ‘congestion’ is used frequently by all sections of society including academics, the media, policy
makers and the public. However, there remains no universally accepted definition of traffic congestion.

One of the principal reasons for this lack of consensus is that congestion is both1:

 An objective physical phenomenon of the transport network relating to the manner in which
vehicles interact with and impede each other; and
 A subjective experience varying from person to person, time to time and place to place.

While there could probably be universal agreement that completely unimpeded travel, essentially by
definition, is uncongested, at what level of impediment people consider congestion to start can differ
substantially.

2.1.1 The objective phenomenon

Traffic congestion is a condition on road networks that occurs as use increases, and is characterised by
slower speeds, longer trip times, and increased vehicular queuing. When traffic demand is large enough
for the interaction between vehicles to slow the speed of the traffic, congestion begins to occur. As
demand approaches the capacity of a road (or of the intersections along the road), congestion increases.

Work undertaken both in New Zealand2 and overseas3 shows a clear relationship between traffic speeds
and traffic volume or flow as shown in Figure 1. This relationship in the figure is commonly referred to in
traffic engineering as the speed-flow curve.

1
OECD. (2007). Managing Urban Traffic Congestion. Paris, France: OECD Publishing.
2
Costs of congestion reappraised. NZ Transport Agency research report 489, Wallis, IP and DR Lupton (2013)
3
Transportation Research Board. (2011). Transportation Research Circular E-C149: 75 Years of the Fundamental
Diagram for Traffic Flow Theory.

2
FIGURE 1: SPEED-FLOW RELATIONSHIP

Speed-Flow Relationship

A B

Speed stable / flow

increasing
Speed

Flow

Source: Wallis, IP and DR Lupton (2013) Costs of congestion reappraised. NZ Transport Agency research
report 489.

As the figure illustrates, when there is a low traffic flow (point A), vehicles are able to travel at a constant
speed –referred to as the ‘free-flow’ speed - even as traffic flow begins to slowly increase (between points
A and B). As vehicle numbers rise, they increasingly interact with each other and reduce the speed at
which they can all travel. Despite this decrease in speed, and due to factors such as the decreased space
required between each vehicle when travelling at a slower speed, the flow of traffic along the stretch of
road can continue to increase (between points B and C).

However, beyond a certain level of traffic flow (beyond point C on the chart), each additional car that
joins the stretch of road will have both an adverse impact on the capacity of the road and the speed at
which vehicles can travel. Beyond point C – the maximum capacity for the stretch of road – the flow of
traffic breaks down because of the interactions between the vehicles and speed and flow continue to
reduce (between points C and D).

This objective relationship is well established and is an important concept in traffic engineering. However,
while it is measurable and provides an understanding of the phenomenon, it does not identify any
particular point as the start of congestion. In fact, there are a range of points along the curve where one
might consider congestion to start, of which two of the most common are4:

4
Costs of congestion reappraised. NZ Transport Agency research report 489, Wallis, IP and DR Lupton (2013)

3
 1. Where interactions between cars begin to impact/slow each other down (beyond point B in
Figure 1).
2. At maximum flow, where the addition of another vehicle starts to reduce the capacity of the road
(beyond point C in Figure 1).

2.1.2 The subjective experience

Equally important to the more formalised and measurable objective phenomenon of congestion is the
concept of perceived or subjective congestion.

While the objective description of how congestion develops, described in section 2.1.1, is generally
agreed, actual perceptions of congestion can differ substantially. This perception of congestion and level
of dissatisfaction with it, will depend on people’s personal experiences and expectations. For instance:

 A person from outside Auckland may consider a motorway travelling at 50-60km per hour highly
congested; however, a regular driver on that route who frequently experiences portions of their
commute at 30km per hour (or even lower) would consider this relatively uncongested.
 The level of traffic and delay a person could experience before considering they are in congestion
on a rural road would likely be far less than on a major urban arterial.
 Likewise, the acceptability of travelling at 60km per hour on a motorway at 4:30pm would
significantly differ from travelling the same speed at 4:30am.

Perceived congestion therefore could begin at any downwards point along the Speed-Flow curve
depending on the person asked and the specific spatial and temporal situation. For this reason it is
generally not suitable to use in determining an absolute measure, but can be an important perspective to
keep in mind in the design and development of any congestion management scheme.

2.1.3 How is congestion defined?

At its most basic level, traffic congestion is when speeds on roads decline and queues of vehicles appear
as a result of interactions between vehicles on the road.

Three possible ways of defining congestion are identified in the literature5:

1. Economists commonly define congestion as the presence of interactions between vehicles on the
road. In effect, all roads that carry significant traffic volumes have some level of congestion.
2. Users perceive roads to be congested when speeds fall below an acceptable level, which may
differ from person to person, by location and over time.
3. Engineers classify a road as congested when more vehicles are attempting to use the road than it
has capacity to carry.

5
Costs of congestion reappraised. NZ Transport Agency research report 489, Wallis, IP and DR Lupton (2013)

4
The engineering definition provides a clearly defined measure that best encapsulates what people
understand by congestion. Based on the above, the proposed definition of congestion, for the purposes of
The Congestion Question project is thus:

Congestion occurs when the demand for the road exceeds its designed capacity.

This definition relates to point C on the speed-flow curve in Figure 1.

The causes of congestion

Simplistically, congestion occurs when more vehicles are attempting to use part of the road network than
it is designed to handle. It is an example of demand (for the road space) exceeding supply (of the road
space). Interactions between vehicles, different human behaviours and increasing numbers of vehicles on
the road all contribute to congested traffic conditions.

2.2.1 Types of congestion

The economist William Vickrey identified six causes of congestion, which is considered the starting point
for the modern study of congestion6:

1. Simple interaction on homogeneous roads: where two vehicles travelling close together delay
one another (effectively where one slower vehicle causes vehicles following it to be delayed).
2. Multiple interaction on homogeneous roads: where the effect of different speeds of vehicles
causes delay (often seen on motorways when traffic volumes get heavy and vehicles speed up or
slow down to change lanes).
3. Bottlenecks: where more vehicles are trying to pass through a point where capacity reduces than
it can accommodate.
4. ‘Trigger neck’ congestion: where a source of congestion generates a queue of vehicles, which in
turn delays a vehicle trying to pass through part of the queue on a journey in a different ultimate
direction (e.g. to enter a turning bay).
5. Network control congestion: where traffic signals, roundabouts or give way/stop signs used for
safety and traffic management start to generate queues in other directions of flow, or indeed the
main flow.
6. Congestion due to network changes: where attempts to manage congestion (e.g. by increasing
capacity) in one location may cause an increase in downstream congestion, because the
upstream capacity has been increased.

In the past when roads were congested, a common approach was to widen them to increase capacity.
However, there are limits to the physical expansion of the network to increase capacity. While this may
have provided some immediate extra capacity and reduced delays in the short term, over time,
depending on the circumstances, this improvement disappears until congestion returns to levels similar to

6
Congestion Theory and Transport Investment, William Vickrey, American Economic Review, 1969, vol. 59,
issue 2, 251-60

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those existing before it was widened. This effect called the ‘fundamental law of road congestion’7 has
been widely observed8.

2.2.2 Behaviours of individuals

In most spheres of our lives when demand for a product or service exceeds supply, the price rises to a
level where demand and supply meet (e.g. the price of strawberries on Christmas Eve or the price of
airline flights during the school holidays). This is not the case for roads (and some other utilities), where
the monetary cost of driving does not vary by time or location.

Currently, Aucklanders pay a range of vehicle and fuel related fees as well as other charges in relation to
private vehicle travel:

 A flat charge per vehicle for registration and licensing;

 A charge that (either directly or indirectly) reflects distance driven (Road User Charges - RUC and Fuel
Excise Duty - FED), plus the recent addition of the Regional Fuel Tax; and,
 Rates that are largely based on property value, which contribute to funding road and transport
services.

Travelling on a congested road increases the overall cost that drivers face. Increased fuel and
maintenance costs are incurred, as well as the additional time it takes and the reduced reliability of the
journey time. The decision to travel by an individual driver is based on their own travel costs (private or
internal costs). Their decision does not consider the impact to all other car users (external costs). When
private costs are less than the full cost (internal and external) of driving, this is inefficient and
consequently too much of a good (in this case travel) is consumed. Drivers continue to choose to travel
during peak periods and once a section of the road network reaches capacity, each additional vehicle that
attempts to join the road will reduce the speed that vehicles can travel, increase the variability and time it
takes to travel, and have an exponential impact on the level of congestion that everyone experiences.

Some individuals may choose to change their behaviour to reduce their exposure to severe congestion.
Changes in behaviour may vary and could include opting to travel at a less congested time of day, using a
different mode of transport to make a journey, working from home or travelling via an alternative route.
A congestion charge would further encourage these individual behavioural changes and work towards
reducing congestion.

7
Duranton, G, and Turner, M. (2011). "The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from US Cities."
American Economic Review, 101 (6): 2616-52.
8
Litman, T. (2018). Generated Traffic and Induced Travel. Retrieved 10 July 2018, from
[Link]

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2.2.3 Cities and congestion
These economic theories help us understand the microeconomic effects of individual decisions; however,
to provide further understanding it is useful to consider congestion at a city-wide scale.

Regular recurring congestion is restricted almost exclusively to cities. This is a direct result of a city’s
defining characteristic, proximity. Cities in their very essence or reason for being are about proximity,
as described by the economist Edward Glaeser9:

“Cities are the absence of physical space between people and companies. They
are proximity, density, closeness. They enable us to work and play together,
and their success depends on the demand for physical connection.”

Cities and their attraction as places to live and work rely on a density of people that makes some form and
level of congestion unavoidable (be it a queue for coffee or the movies, a crowded bus, or traffic
congestion). Yet they retain their attraction to us as the best way to share ideas10, stimulate innovation
and access specific skills and services. This can be seen throughout the world, where culturally and
economically vibrant cities often have the worst congestion11.

Therefore, when seen in this light, congestion is an inevitable consequence of proximity, prosperity and
growth. It is a result of our desire for social and economic interaction and the benefits we gain from living
and working in close proximity to each other. As the population of a city grows, the number of vehicles
travelling on a road network increases and further traffic congestion is experienced.

The congestion problem

As with the causes, the negative impacts of congestion have two components – network efficiency
(mobility) effects and region wide (accessibility) consequences.

2.3.1 Network efficiency

As established above, congestion at a microeconomic level can be attributed to the fact that the costs
people pay to use a road do not always cover the costs they impose on others. The result of this is that
delay impacts on other people are not taken into account. Beyond a certain level of traffic, these impacts
on other people do not just reduce vehicle speeds but also actually reduce the capacity of the road so that
fewer vehicles can travel along it. The result of this is that many stretches of road end up operating below
capacity and in a far less efficient manner than they otherwise could, reducing people’s ability to access
jobs, education and other opportunities.

9
Glaeser, E. (2011). Triumph of the City: How Urban Spaces Make Us Human. MacMillan.
10
Zheng, G. (2016). Geographic proximity and productivity convergence across New Zealand firms, New Zealand
Productivity Commission Working Paper 2016/04. New Zealand Productivity Commission.
11
OECD. (2007). Managing Urban Traffic Congestion. Paris, France: OECD Publishing.

7
2.3.2 Regional accessibility
Cities are invaluable as facilitators of possibilities. People gravitate towards them to allow them to access
more easily the desirable skills, services and opportunities others can provide. However, congestion can
reduce this accessibility, thereby offsetting advantages from proximity12.

Congestion can also have harmful effects on the environment of a region. Severe congestion can lead to
reductions in air quality and have negative impacts on the health of those people living in a congested
region.

However it is not as simple as declaring all congestion harmful. The economic literature on congestion
and productivity suggests that there is a complicated relationship between the two variables. In an
econometric analysis of 88 of the most congested metro areas in the US13, it was found that:

“Congestion may be good in that it’s an indicator of active and vibrant urban places.
Congestion might be bad in as far as it means that access is impeded, freight deliveries
aren’t able to happen on time, and people are hating life.”

Identifying and measuring congestion

Free-flow

Historically, transport system performance was measured by comparing vehicle traffic speeds with free-
flow speeds. For example, motorways would be considered congested if speeds fell below 100 km/hr, as
that represents freely flowing conditions.

As Auckland grows in population, the critical task of the transport system is to support a larger total
amount of travel. Seeking to provide for free-flow traffic and avoid any congestion in the road network
would be hugely inefficient and costly, as well as being practically impossible. Instead, the economic
evidence on agglomeration and productivity in cities, summarised in section 2.3.2, suggests that because
transport can support economic productivity, congestion should only be considered harmful if it
significantly impedes the number of people able to use the road network.

Travel throughput

In a 2013 NZTA research report on transport indicators14, the use of “travel throughput” was advocated as
a better indicator of network capability and performance than conventional measures of congestion. It is

12
Melo, P., Graham, D., Levinson, D., & Aarabi, S. (2017). Agglomeration, accessibility and productivity:
Evidence for large metropolitan areas in the US. Urban Studies, Vol. 54(1) 179–195.
13
Sweet, M. (2014). ‘Traffic Congestion's Economic Impacts: Evidence from US Metropolitan Regions’. Urban
Studies, 51(10) 2088–2110.
14
Denne, T., Irvine, R., Schiff, A. & Sweetman, C. (2013). Blueprint for a best practice measurement indicator set
and benchmarking. NZ Transport Agency research report 522.

8
suggested that throughput is a better indicator of the amount of economic activity supported by the
transport network:

“Travel throughput measures the ability of the system to move people and freight per
unit of time. Moving people and freight is what the transport system does, so
throughput is a key measure of performance. […] In our view, throughput is a better
measure of transport system performance than congestion or travel time-based
measures.”

Empirical evidence suggests that minimising road congestion beyond a certain point will tend to reduce
the amount of vehicles carried by the road, and hence the amount of economic activity supported by the
road. Applying this approach to the simplified world represented by Figure 1, it is at the point where the
capacity of the road is reached and flow begins to decrease (shown by point C) that a detrimental level of
congestion starts.

Engineering measures

One of the ways that traffic engineering traditionally measures road network performance is using the
concept of Level of Service (LoS). These qualitative levels, ranging from A to F, are used to categorise
performance using measures such as vehicle speed, vehicle density, delay or volume to capacity (VC)
ratio. Table 1 summarises LoS definitions for general road network performance using the relationship
between measured traffic flow and maximum flow (the volume to capacity or VC ratio) as the measure.
There are similar tables that use traffic speed, density or delay as the measure for LoS.

TABLE 1: ROAD NETWORK PERFORMANCE LEVELS OF SERVICE

Motorway
Local/ Arterial
LoS Description /Expressway
Road VC ratio
VC ratio
Free-flow conditions with unimpeded manoeuvrability.
A <0.30 <0.26
Stopped delay at signalised intersection is minimal.
Reasonably unimpeded operations with slightly restricted
B 0.30 < 0.48 0.26 < 0.43
manoeuvrability. Stopped delays are not bothersome.
Stable operations with somewhat more restrictions in making
C mid-block lane changes less than LoS B. Motorists will 0.48 < 0.70 0.43 < 0.62
experience appreciable tension while driving.
Approaching unstable operations, where small increases in
D volume produce substantial increases in delay and decreases in 0.70 < 0.90 0.62 < 0.82
speed.
Operations with significant intersection approach delays and
E 0.90 < 1 0.82 < 1
low average speeds.
Extremely low speeds caused by intersection congestion, high
F > =1 > =1
delay and adverse signal progression

Source: Transportation Research Board. Highway capacity manual (TRB 1994)

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Due to the interactions of vehicles beyond a certain volume, once the volume to capacity ratio gets above
about 0.85 (approaching LoS E), the flow of vehicles becomes unstable. This reduces the throughput,
increases delays, and results in congestion. Therefore, to maximise the efficiency of the road network, the
target LoS is typically LoS D – before severe congestion starts to occur.

The theory of congestion pricing

2.5.1 Early research
The basic economic theory of congestion was developed in 1920 by Arthur Pigou as part of his seminal
work15 to illustrate the economics of external effects and the ability of taxation to restore efficiency when
goods are not optimally priced16.

Presented below in Figure 2, the theory illustrates the relationship between the cost of travel and the
flow of traffic along a particular route. In this situation as the cost of travel increases, fewer people are
willing to travel (illustrated by the demand line). In calculating the cost of travelling along the route
people will consider what is termed the ‘marginal private cost’ (MPC), that is the direct costs to them such
as time, petrol and vehicle wear and tear; as such traffic volume will be ‘y’, that is the point where the
MPC line meets demand. This MPC cost however is only part of the full cost of the trip; a person in making
a trip will also impose other costs on society such as delays to other motorists (as shown in the speed-
flow diagram in Figure 1).

15
Pigou, A. (1920). The Economics of Welfare. London, UK: MacMillan.
16
Santos, G. & Verhoef, E. (2011). Road congestion pricing. In de Palma, A., Lindsey, R., Quinet, E., &
Vickerman, R. (Eds), A Handbook of Transport Economics (pp561-585). Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.

10
FIGURE 2: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE COST OF TRAVEL AND THE FLOW OF TRAFFIC

Marginal
social cost
Cost/price

Demand

Marginal
a private cost

x y
Traffic volume

Source: Adapted from a diagram in A Handbook of Transport Economics (pg 562)

Without taking these costs into account an individual person may be better off by driving along a road but
society as a whole will be worse off. The optimal use of the road for society overall lies therefore not at
traffic volume ‘y’, but traffic volume ‘x’ where both the private and social costs are taken into account.
Pigou found that imposing an optimal road price, equal in this case to the difference between ‘a’ and ‘b’
(or the marginal external congestion cost), achieves this optimal level.

This is a simplified representation of this theory and many in the years since have expanded on its
concepts17; however, its main point remains valid and sits at the centre of understanding the reason
traffic congestion arises on Auckland’s roads. If a charge is applied to use the road at congested times to
reflect the overall societal cost component, society will be better off (as use of the road network is
optimised), even if some individuals are worse off (by having to pay a charge).

2.5.2 Optimal pricing in relation to network performance

The primary aim of a congestion charge is to allow an area of the road network to operate more
efficiently. Some drivers will choose to pay the charge and maintain the same driving behaviours. Other
drivers will choose an alternative travel method/time, rather than pay the charge, and this will have the
positive effect of reducing the number of vehicles in the congested area and improving traffic flow. As the
relationship between congestion and demand is non-linear, even small reductions in the number of
vehicles in a congested area can have a noticeable effect on the stability of the traffic flow, allowing
speeds to improve and travel times to become more reliable.

17
Small, K., & Verhoef, E. (2007). The Economics of Urban Transportation.

11
The level at which the charge is set will determine how many drivers change their behaviour. If the charge
is set too high, there will likely be a significant reduction in the number of vehicles on the roads in the
charging area. However, there will also be large resistance from society in terms of whether the charge is
fair and equitable. If the charge is set too low, too many drivers will continue with their usual driving
patterns, having negligible impacts on traffic flow.

From a network performance perspective, the optimal charge would be set at a level to allow the network
to perform at optimal capacity. In reality, the level of charge will additionally need to consider social
impacts and practicality, when being set.

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3 Auckland situation
Regional context:

Since 2010, Auckland’s population has increased by over 250,000 people. The current population of
Auckland is approaching 1.7 million and projections from Statistics NZ suggest that over the next 30 years,
up to a million more people will call Auckland home. Historically, Auckland’s urban footprint has been
made up of low-density suburbs, connected by a motorway network with widespread vehicle ownership
by residents. As Auckland’s population grows, the urban footprint and the way we move around the city
will need to change.

Growth will be accommodated by increasing density and investing in infrastructure:

The city centre will continue to be an important area for business, tourism, civic, educational and cultural
activities. However, it is not the only main centre in Auckland. Housing and economic activity will increase
in density in other key locations including Albany, Westgate, Manukau and the airport industrial area.
While public transport options are available to access these locations today, further capacity and choice
will need to be provided to allow the city and its residents to prosper.

Recent years have seen record growth in public transport use in Auckland. Annual public transport
boardings have increased by 37 percent, from 69.7 million in December 2013 to 95.6 million in November
2018. Fast, reliable and convenient public transport solutions, such as the rapid transit lanes on the
Northern Corridor through to the city centre, now enable more people to commute to the city centre via
bus, than via private car. However, residents own more cars on a per capita basis than ever before. There
were over 700 additional cars registered in Auckland every week in the twelve months to September 2017
and peak period congestion has increased significantly. Compared to 2014:

 33% more of the arterial network is now congested during the morning peak hour, and
 average weekday motorway trips now take almost 10% longer (The Congestion Question Phase I
report).

With the predicted rate of population growth in Auckland coupled with private vehicle being the
preferred mode of transport, the demand on the road network will continue to increase, further
worsening congestion in the absence of any interventions.

The Auckland Transport Alignment Project (ATAP) recently developed an aligned strategic approach for
transport investment priorities in Auckland in order to accommodate the anticipated growth in the
region. The ATAP package contains $28 billion of investment in Auckland’s transport infrastructure and
services over the period 2018-2028. The majority of the ATAP package focusses on capital improvements,
primarily in the modes of public transport, walking and cycling. There is also in excess of $5 billion
allocated to maintaining and improving the quality of Auckland’s roads.

ATAP concluded that while investment in transport infrastructure (and services) is an essential part of
achieving transformational change, they need to be complemented by a series of other interventions.

13
These include “implementing road pricing to manage travel demand, make better use of existing
infrastructure and encouraging a modal shift to public transport, walking and cycling”18.

Where is congestion experienced today?

Data from Auckland Transport (June 2018) shows the areas of Auckland that are affected by congestion in
the AM peak, interpeak and PM peak periods; congestion is widespread. The LoS highlighted in Figure 3,
Figure 4 and Figure 5 (following) use proportion of the posted speed limit as the measure, with the
different levels defined as follows:

TABLE 2: ROAD NETWORK PERFORMANCE LEVELS OF SERVICE USED BY AUCKLAND TRANSPORT

LoS Colour coding % of speed limit

A 90% and greater
B 70-90%
C 50-70%
D 40-49%
E 30-39%
F Less than 30%

Source: Auckland Transport

The proxy for ‘congested conditions’ is when the average speed travelled on a section of road is less than
50% of the posted speed limit (i.e. Levels of Service D – F, coloured red, crimson and black on the maps).

The most widespread congestion occurs during the PM peak when the average speed on several sections
of the road network is at 30% or less than the speed limit (black colour coding). This can be seen in
sections of the North-Shore; around East Tamaki and Botany, the North-Western motorway and arterial
routes in close proximity; the Southern and South-Western motorways and surrounding arterial routes. It
is worth noting that on some sections of the motorway – e.g. the North-Western near Lincoln Road and
the Southern near Takanini, ongoing roadworks are in progress to widen the motorway in these sections.
The reduced speed limits and temporary traffic management force traffic to slow down below the usual
speed limit and thus further contribute to the congestion in these areas.

18
Auckland Transport Alignment Project, April 2018, pp 13

14
FIGURE 3: AM PEAK CONGESTION (7.30AM-8.30AM)

Source: Auckland Transport traffic monitoring data

15
FIGURE 4: INTERPEAK CONGESTION (9AM-4PM)

Source: Auckland Transport traffic monitoring data

16
FIGURE 5 : PM PEAK CONGESTION (4.30PM-5.30PM)

Source: Auckland Transport traffic monitoring data

17
 Different causes of congestion in Auckland
Different locations and sections of the road network experience different levels of congestion due to their
layout and constraints. Auckland examples for different types of congestion (as discussed in section 2.2.1)
are outlined below.

1. Simple interaction on homogeneous roads, for example:

 When a car slows to turn into a driveway, the cars following have to also slow down.

2. Multiple interaction on homogeneous roads, for example:

 When vehicles are merging lanes on a busy stretch of motorway or changing lanes where
the vehicle speeds are different.
 Great South Road (or other busy four lane roads), where people are pulling into and out
of parallel carparks, driveways, side streets and also changing lanes.

3. Bottlenecks are experienced in several locations, for example:

 Northbound on SH1 at Mt Wellington where three lanes reduce down to two lanes.
 At a set of traffic signals where two lanes at the intersection merge to one lane after the
intersection.

4. ‘Trigger neck’ congestion, for example:

 Someone travelling from Devonport to Takapuna in the morning peak on Lake Road, will
get caught in the congestion flowing back from vehicles joining the motorway at
Esmonde Road.
 Access to a right turning bay at a set of traffic signals is blocked by the queue going
straight ahead (or vice versa).

5. Network control congestion, where traffic signals or roundabouts which are necessary to allow
safe travel for conflicting vehicle movements, create queues of traffic. For example:
 North-South traffic on Dominion Rd vs East-West traffic on Balmoral Rd.

6. Congestion due to network changes, where road/motorway widening effectively “moves the
bottleneck” downstream. For example:
 Prior to the opening of the Northern Gateway tunnel, there was significant congestion at
the Grand Drive interchange (Orewa), especially on holiday weekends. The extension of
the Northern Gateway moved the congestion from this point to further downstream at
the Johnstones Hill tunnel.

7. Congestion due to roadworks and incidents which cause a temporary reduction in

supply/capacity. For example:
 Takanini motorway expansion. Road agencies are very concerned about managing the
impact of congestion in these scenarios. They do this through scheduling of maintenance
works, temporary speed limit reductions and rapid response teams.

18
  When incidents occur, generally any resulting congestion is localised. Significant
incidents on the motorway network, eg bridge strikes (over height vehicles hitting an
overbridge) or multi-vehicle pile ups, can result in severe congestion. However, these
large-scale incidents do not occur very often.

Variances in congestion levels

Congestion varies depending on the time of day, the day of the week and the time of the year. The worst
congestion generally occurs at times when most people want to travel, i.e. the morning peak and the
afternoon peak, Monday to Friday. This can be seen in Figure 6which shows average speeds on the
Auckland arterial network by month, for the AM peak, interpeak and PM peak periods. The AM peak has
the most variability in average speed, and the PM peak generally experiences the lowest average speeds.
Growth in the city is also contributing to increased congestion throughout the interpeak period and at
weekends, though it is not as widespread as typical ‘commuter peak’ congestion.

FIGURE 6 : ARTERIAL MONTHLY AVERAGE SPEEDS AT THE AM PEAK, INTERPEAK AND PM PEAK PERIODS

Source: Auckland Transport traffic monitoring data

Seasonality

Seasonality effects have a noticeable impact on congestion levels in Auckland. During school and
university holidays, congestion levels in most locations ease (increases in average speeds can be seen in
Figure 6 in January, April, July and October). The change to travel patterns during the holiday periods
illustrates that only a minor reduction in traffic volumes results in a noticeable increase in average speeds,
which are a proxy for congestion.

At the beginning and end of public holiday weekends, periods of congestion are prolonged and more
intense, particularly on the major state highways, as more people try to exit and then return to the

19
region. Public information campaigns are often utilised to encourage travellers to make their journeys
outside peak times.

Disrupting factors

Adverse weather conditions can negatively impact congestion with heavy rain forcing motorists to slow
their travel speeds, and king tides disrupting travel routes for Auckland motorists. Crashes and roadworks
can also exacerbate congestion, however these factors are not considered to contribute to recurring
congestion.

What do Aucklanders think about congestion in the region?

The Auckland Transport road user satisfaction study conducted in the first half of 2018 states that only
one in every three Aucklanders are satisfied with travel by road. Traffic flow accounts for half the impact
on overall satisfaction levels.

On the arterial routes, the lowest levels of satisfaction with both the flow of traffic and the consistency of
time taken to travel are seen within the North, City and Newmarket, West, Otahuhu, Onehunga/South –
showing dissatisfaction levels are widespread across the city.

According to the June 2018 survey, half of Auckland residents in full or part time employment are affected
by congestion on most days of the week. Approximately 60% of drivers agree with the sentiment they are
“battling the traffic everyday”.

Aucklanders are already using a range of strategies to manage peak time travel, including: travelling
before or after the peak; using public transport, active modes or choosing to work from home rather than
travel to their place of work. This shows that congestion is an existing problem and Aucklanders are
changing their travel behaviours to work around it.

Costs
Traffic congestion affects users of the road network in that it delays journeys, limiting access to economic,
educational and social opportunities. Direct costs of traffic congestion to individuals are increased fuel
and maintenance costs, loss of time (due to sitting in traffic) and schedule delay costs (having to change
time of travel to avoid delay).

The aggregate cost of congestion to Auckland has been recently calculated in two separate research
publications:

a) Ian Wallis and David Lupton, in their NZ Transport Agency research report 489, published in
February 2013 and,
b) The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER), in their report: Benefits from Auckland
road decongestion, published in July 2017.

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Wallis and Lupton

The Wallis and Lupton report defines congestion based on the engineering definition, as “occurring when
the demand for the road exceeds its capacity – i.e. the maximum sustainable flow.” The report goes on to
define the cost of congestion as “the difference between the observed travel time and the travel time
when the road is operating at capacity – plus schedule delay costs, reliability costs and other applicable
social and environmental costs.”

The report used the Auckland Regional Transport Model (ART3) for data inputs, and adjusted prices to
2010. It estimates that the annual cost of congestion to Auckland is $1,250 million per year when
compared with free-flow conditions and $250 million per year when compared with the network
operating at capacity.

NZIER

When calculating the benefits of decongestion, NZIER considers the impacts beyond the direct time-
savings to freight operators and commuters. The calculation considers the benefits that also accrue to all
businesses that use transport and employ workers who commute, and to households who waste their
scarce time in traffic jams. The estimate of benefits includes the flow-on impacts across the economy plus
social benefits such as reduced carbon emissions.

NZIER estimates the benefits of decongestion in Auckland would be between $0.9 billion and $1.3 billion
per annum (approximately 1% to 1.5% of Auckland’s GDP, based on 2016 prices). These estimates
represent the economic and social benefits19 to Auckland if the road transport network was operating
within its capacity Monday to Friday. The estimates do not include the benefits of decongestion in the
weekends, which if included, would increase the value of the estimated benefits.

NZIER note that their estimate is likely to be conservative as there are several other potential benefits
from decongestion that have not been included due to data, time and resource constraints. These
include:

 Auckland’s overall liveability

 Greater choice in work location (better skill matching around the Auckland region)
 Greater choice in household location (increased accessibility to jobs, services and leisure)
 Greater freedom for business to locate around Auckland (trading off labour market access and
rental costs)

19
These benefits accrue across three sectors: government, business and household. The benefits to households
are estimated to be between $233 million and $382 million per year. This represents an economic benefit of
approximately $500 - $750 per household.

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 Future state
3.6.1 Regional Land Transport Plan
Recommendations from ATAP have been used to guide statutory planning processes, including the
Regional Land Transport Plan (RLTP). The RLTP outlines the investment program for the next 10 years, for
transport in Auckland. The RLTP aims to deliver a safe, reliable and accessible transport system that
supports and shapes Auckland’s development.

Under the investment program, improvements are expected to support a modal shift away from single
occupant vehicles as the dominant mode of travel, towards public transport use and active modes. The
RLTP aims to increase total annual public transport boardings to almost 150 million by 2028 (compared
with 95.6 million annual boardings in the year to November 2018), without congestion pricing.

Delivery of the projects outlined in the RLTP will enable the transport system to keep up with the
predicted growth of the region. However, while this significant programme of investment will deliver
good outcomes at a localised level, congestion is not expected to improve from current levels. The
Auckland Forecasting Centre’s (AFC) Macro Strategic Model (MSM) forecasts future road network
performance, taking into account:

 the most recent population and employment projections and,

 the investments planned in the RLTP.

The impact of the RLTP projects on congestion levels in Auckland, is that in ten years’ time, the city will
experience similar levels of congestion to those which it experiences today (see Figure 7).

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FIGURE 7: CONGESTION IN AUCKLAND (2016 AND 2028)

Source: Auckland Forecasting Centre, Macro Strategic Model outputs

Accommodating another 300,000 people in Auckland (i.e. accommodating approximately twice the
current population of Hamilton) without adding to congestion would be a significant achievement in its
own right. However, we know that people aren’t happy with the current situation – every day
Aucklanders spend hours sitting in traffic when they could otherwise be at home with their families, or
doing something more productive. An average weekday motorway trip now takes 10% more time than
four years ago, and motorists now need to allow an additional 40-55% longer for trips to be assured of
arriving on time20. Congestion is also becoming increasingly worse throughout the day and at weekends. If
congestion does not improve, access to jobs, education and other opportunities will become more
difficult, negatively impacting both productivity and liveability.

Analysis undertaken as part of Phase I indicates that road network performance will continue to decline,
even with major investment in transport infrastructure and services and by 2046:

20
The Congestion Question – Phase I report

23
  The proportion of car travel in severe congestion (modelled as any road link >0.8 volume/capacity
ratio – ie orange, red and black shading in Figure 7) is projected to increase by 29% in the
morning and afternoon peaks and by 38% in the interpeak
 Severe congestion on the freight network during both the morning peak and interpeak is
projected to increase by 50%.

This project builds on findings from ATAP, that influencing travel demand should be considered alongside
increasing investment in order to get better use of the transport network. Congestion pricing is a
mechanism that can be used to manage demand on the road network, encourage users to change their
travel behaviour - the time, route or mode by which they travel - and has been successfully implemented
in several cities around the world.

3.6.2 Technological changes

Technology advances in, or affecting, the transport sector are already having noticeable impacts on
congestion and are not always for the better.

 For example, there is evidence that the increase in popularity of ride-sharing/ride-hailing services
(e.g. Uber/Lyft) is increasing congestion by providing a more convenient, but less efficient
alternative to public transport. This also increases the numbers of vehicles circulating on the road
network without purpose (e.g. in between customer rides), further adding to congestion.
 A survey released in October of over 4,000 adults in Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, the
San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle and Washington, D.C., concluded that 49 to 61 percent of ride-
hailing trips would not have been made at all – or would have been made instead by public
transport, walking or biking – if ride-sharing apps were not available.
 A study on the rise of online shopping conducted by researchers at the University of Delaware
found that an increase in the number of home shopping purchases is likely to increase travel
time, traffic delays, and vehicle emissions of the transportation network as a whole. Simulation
results indicate the additional burden on the transport system is primarily due to the increased
number of delivery trucks required, even though personal shopping trips may decrease.

The introduction of autonomous, connected vehicles and people’s access to more data such as digital
services that provide real-time information (e.g. congestion levels and parking availability) also have the
ability to impact congestion. These advances are still in development and the longer-term impacts are
challenging to forecast:

 Autonomous and connected vehicles – these vehicles are expected to play an important role in
the future of transport. They have the ability to communicate with each other and their
surroundings, hence they are able to theoretically identify the optimal route and spread the
demand for road space. They are also able to travel closer together, increasing the capacity of
existing roads. Enhanced ride-sharing capabilities are a potential feature of driverless cars (e.g.
through mobility as a service (MaaS)), further optimising use of the road network by increasing
individual vehicle occupancy. While the potential benefits of autonomous and connected vehicles
are significant in theory, there is considerable uncertainty of these benefits and associated
timeframes, and there is the risk that demand may in fact result in increased congestion.

24
  Data and information services – the provision of real time information (e.g. via mobile apps)
allows road users to optimise their route by providing information on, for example, congestion
levels on particular roads, parking availability at a destination or ride-sharing options. This can
assist people in managing their travel choices (e.g. time and mode of travel) which has the
potential to contribute to the goals of congestion pricing, being better network performance.

Overall, although there are some potentially promising aspects to new technologies enabling more
efficient use of the road network, uncertainty around their timing and impact means that we cannot wait
to take action.

25
4 What are we trying to achieve with congestion
pricing?
The primary aim of introducing congestion pricing is to change people’s behaviour and subsequently allow
an area of the road network to operate more efficiently.

What would this mean for people?

For congestion pricing to work, it requires a behavioural change for some people to change the way they
travel. In the short term, this could be:

 Do nothing – people continue with their previous routes and pay the higher price.
 Shift routes – people find an alternative route with no charge or a lower charge.
 Shift modes – people take an alternative form of transport – public transport,
walking/cycling, carpooling to share costs, etc.
 Shift travel time – people shift their travel to a different time of day when the charge may be
lower, potentially smoothing congestion away from the peaks.
 Avoid trips – people decrease the number of trips they make to avoid the charge, for
example by online shopping. This is especially relevant for discretionary trips, which are
probably the lowest value trips.

Longer term behavioural changes might be:

 Choose a different destination – people opt to travel to a different location to avoid or

minimise the charge – this may include changing place of work/school/shopping etc.
 Choose a different origin – people opt to move their home/business location to avoid or
minimise the charge.

International evidence shows that the vast majority of people tend to pay the charge and continue
driving21. However, because the relationship between traffic speeds and flow is non-linear (as per the
speed-flow curve in Figure 1), it only takes a small reduction in vehicle volumes to have a big impact on
congestion. The idea of congestion pricing is to target the lowest value trips that could be deferred or re-
timed, freeing up the roads for those who need to travel.

What would people perceive?

What would this look like to people using the transport network? How would they perceive the changes
to traffic flow if a congestion charge were imposed on drivers?

21
Social and Distributional Impacts of Time and Space-based Road Pricing (final draft report), MRCagney,
12/5/2018

26
  People should experience faster journey times and generally more consistent travel speeds, i.e.
less stop-start traffic.
 There would also be an improvement in journey time reliability. People should be able to plan
their journeys with more confidence knowing that it is unlikely they will be stuck in slow moving
traffic and consequently, there will be a reduction in scheduling costs. People will not need to
allow as much buffer time for trips, and tradespeople and freight operators will be able to
schedule more jobs with the confidence that they can make them on time.

One important outcome that evidence suggests people will not perceive, or at least will not perceive fully,
is the extent of behavioural change that they have actually made. A 2006 study undertaken in Stockholm
following the introduction of the scheme questioned people on the changes they had made to their
travel. The researchers were surprised to find that a significant portion of the trips that were no longer
occurring were unaccounted for. In fact:

“Most drivers were unaware that they had reduced their trips across the cordon. A
comparison of drivers’ stated change in behaviour and objective traffic measurements
showed that around three-quarters of the decrease in trips had apparently gone
unnoticed by drivers”22

It is likely that people will for at least some of the time not realise they have made the choice to change
their time or mode of travel, or to not make the trip at all. These decisions around the edges are the
primary targets of any pricing scheme, and demonstrate the potential of even a relatively small charge –
making people question the need to make that trip, potentially subconsciously, in the first place.

What does success look like?

In 2010, the International Transport Forum held a roundtable forum looking at the lessons learned from
the successful implementation of congestion charging schemes. The summary report of proceedings has
many interesting lessons for the project but perhaps none more so than that included in the opening
paragraph of the report “Implementing Congestion Charges”:

““Success” means (a) that a policy is implemented, (b) that it works, (c) that it is
accepted by actual and potential users, and (d) that it generates benefits for society
overall.”

Success first and foremost then, is an implementable scheme that results in network performance
improvements, the merits of which are accepted by the public.

22
The Stockholm congestion charges: an overview, Jonas Eliasson, KTH Royal Institute of Technology CTS
Working Paper 2014:7

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A new charge, as with any new fee or tax, is likely to be met with some opposition both on principle
from those who object to new or increased taxes and from those who will be personally worse off.
Nevertheless, it must be acceptable in that it:

a) is well founded/justified;
b) is easy to understand and use; and
c) once implemented demonstrates noticeable benefits.

Over time, the level of acceptance of a charging scheme is likely to increase, as has been observed in
European cities where congestion charging has been introduced (see Table 3).

TABLE 3: ACCEPTANCE OF CHARGING BEFORE AND AFTER IMPLEMENTATION IN FIVE EUROPEAN CITIES

City Before After

Stockholm 21% 67%
Bergen 19% 58%
Oslo 30% 41%
Trondheim 9% 47%
London 39% 54%

Source: Congestion Charging: Policy and Global Lessons Learned / CURACAO Deliverable D3: Case
Study Results Report, 2009

Congestion charging schemes that have been delivered around the world have shown significant
improvements to road network efficiency. In Singapore, traffic in the restricted zone reduced by about
13% and average travel speeds increased by 20%. Singapore has a flexible tariff policy that is reviewed
every three months and adjusted to manage speeds. In Stockholm, during the congestion pricing cordon
trial and the subsequent scheme implementation, congestion levels reduced to a stable level of 22%
below the 2005 pre-charging conditions. Interestingly, between the end of the trial period and the
reintroduction of the charges in Stockholm, traffic volumes rebounded to levels from before the trial –
almost. There was a residual effect of 5-10% lower traffic volumes that remained even after the charges
had been abolished, which most likely indicates that some car users adapted alternative travel habits that
remained after the charge was removed23.

In addition to reducing congestion, further positive outcomes from congestion charging schemes are
improved health benefits (from modal switches to walking and cycling); cleaner air from lower vehicle
emissions and safer roads.

23
The Stockholm congestion charges: an overview, Jonas Eliasson, KTH Royal Institute of Technology CTS
Working Paper 2014:7

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 Congestion charging in the real world
If a congestion charging scheme were to be implemented in Auckland, it will need to balance:

 Network performance - A scheme must meet the primary objective of the project; that is to
improve congestion results. It must also be a positive thing to do, in that it should generate net
benefits for society compared to the current situation. However, to optimise network
performance, a high charge might be required and this may conflict with the other considerations
below – hence the need for trade-offs to be made.
 Social and equity impacts - A scheme needs to consider principles of equity and fairness in its
design; these might include:
o Whether or not charging is perceived to deny individual basic rights such as freedom of
movement
o Whether people on lower incomes are more adversely impacted - a congestion charging
scheme should not disproportionately affect less well-off and more vulnerable members
of society
o Whether different members of society have the opportunity to adopt alternatives, based
on, for example, their geography, access to services and access to other travel choices.
 Practical considerations - A scheme needs to be implementable in practical terms, considering:
o technical feasibility
o capital and operational costs
o clear communication around the use of revenue
o ease of use for customers
o privacy concerns (linked to the technology that is utilised)
o provision of alternatives (e.g. increasing public transport and active mode offerings)

A rules-based tariff policy will provide flexibility to adjust parameters (e.g. time of day, location and even
the charge itself) to manage some of these trade-offs. A suitable tariff policy enables a scheme to remain
flexible to allow changes to be made over time, based on the results achieved and the scheme’s impact
on social, environmental and safety outcomes.

We need to consider a range of options

A review of international pricing initiatives and lessons for Auckland, commissioned in Phase I of the
project, recommended to begin with an achievable scheme that targets a widely accepted problem, and
then evolve24 (the scheme). An initial scheme must be easy for the public to understand, so that they
know how to pay the charge, what the charge will be and so they also understand how to avoid it (i.e.
what the alternative options are).

24
Review of international pricing schemes, previous reports and technologies for demand management
purposes, D’Artagnan Consulting, August 2018

29
Therefore, when considering the design of potential congestion charging schemes for Auckland, a wide
range of options (e.g. location, style, size) need to be considered in this phase of TCQ, so that we can
understand and take into account the trade-offs between network performance, social impacts and
practicality, as discussed above.

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