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Confidence Intervals for Population Mean

The document provides an overview of confidence intervals for estimating population means, including the use of Z and t distributions based on sample size and known or unknown standard deviations. It includes several problems with solutions that illustrate how to calculate confidence intervals and probabilities related to sample means. Key concepts such as degrees of freedom, correction factors, and the interpretation of results are also discussed.

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Ahmed Salem
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
18 views9 pages

Confidence Intervals for Population Mean

The document provides an overview of confidence intervals for estimating population means, including the use of Z and t distributions based on sample size and known or unknown standard deviations. It includes several problems with solutions that illustrate how to calculate confidence intervals and probabilities related to sample means. Key concepts such as degrees of freedom, correction factors, and the interpretation of results are also discussed.

Uploaded by

Ahmed Salem
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Cairo University

Faculty of Computers and Artificial Intelligence Section#5


Probability and Statistics – 2 2022-2023

Confidence Interval for population mean

For t-table and chi square table: to enter the table you have to calculate the degrees of freedom
which is the sample size -1 and the table itself shows the area to the right (unlike the z table) and
also the data inside the table represent the t value while the first row represents the probability
“area under the curve” (unlike the z table)
Z and t tables are symmetric but chi squared table is not symmetric

Sample distribution for mean reminders:

Z standard normal distribution


𝑋̅ − 𝜇
𝑍=  (sigma known) -add correction
√𝑛 factor if needed
Z standard normal distribution
𝑋̅ − 𝜇
𝑍= 𝑠 (sigma unknown, n>30) -add
√𝑛 correction factor if needed
t-Distribution Equation (sigma is
unknown, n<=30-the population
𝑋̅ − 𝜇 here must be normal) -add
𝑡= 𝑠
√𝑛 correction factor in needed (very
close to z but is calculated based
on s not sigma)

Estimating population mean


(From the sampling distribution rules )
Cairo University
Faculty of Computers and Artificial Intelligence Section#5
Probability and Statistics – 2 2022-2023

Confidence Interval Equation for mean


𝜎
𝜇 = 𝑋̿ ± 𝑍𝛼 × (when sigma known ) -add correction
2 √𝑛
factor in needed
s Confidence Interval Equation for mean
μ = x̅ ± zα/2
√n (when sigma unknown and n>30) -add
correction factor in needed
s Confidence Interval Equation for mean
μ = x̅ ± t α/2
√n (when sigma unknown and n<=30 ) -
add correction factor in needed

Problem 1: The president of a large university wishes to estimate the average age of the students
presently enrolled. From past studies, the standard deviation is known to be 2 years. A sample of
50 students is selected, and the mean is found to be 23.2 years. Find the 95% confidence interval
of the population mean.

Answer
3 questions to ask
Cairo University
Faculty of Computers and Artificial Intelligence Section#5
Probability and Statistics – 2 2022-2023

1. Is the population normally distributed or n >30


2. Is the pop st deviation known or if unknown “we have sample st dev and n >30”
3. Is the pop finite and n/N>5% and sample is drawn without replacement then add correction
factor.

n = 50 x = 23.2  = 2. N=??(big)
95% C.I. , check table

To enter Z Table:
Z/2(Area to right) = Z (1-/2) (Area to left)

Z(1-.025 )= Z.975 = 1.96


Use correction factor no

 2
xz = 23.2 ± 1.96 = 23.2 ± 0.55
n 50
22.6 < µ < 23.7
Hence, the president can say, with 95% confidence, that the average age of the students is
between 22.6 and 23.7 years, based on 50 students.

Problem 2: Scores on an IQ test are distributed normally with a population mean of


100. Suppose 20 people are randomly selected and tested. The standard deviation
in the sample group is 15. What is the probability that the average test score in the
sample group will be at most 110?

Answer:

Since Sigma is Unknown and Sample Size < 25, then t-Distribution will be used

n= 20

Degrees of freedom = n-1 = 20 - 1 = 19

μ = 100
Cairo University
Faculty of Computers and Artificial Intelligence Section#5
Probability and Statistics – 2 2022-2023

̅ =110
X

S = 15

𝑋̅ − 𝜇 110 − 100
𝑡= 𝑠 =
15
= 2.9

√𝑛 √20
̅ <110 ) = P( t <2.9)
P(𝑋

P( t < 2.9) = 1- P ( t > 2.9) = 1 – 0.005 = 0.995

This tells us that the probability that the average test score in the sample group will be at most 110 is
equal to 0.99.

Problem 3: A random sample of size 39 is taken from a population of 200 members. The sample
mean is 66 and the population standard deviation is 11. Construct a 96% confidence interval to
estimate the population mean. What is the point estimate of the population mean?

Answer

1) n = 39 N = 200 x = 66  = 11

Use correction factor


n/N < 0.05? 39/200 = 0.195
96% C.I. , check the table

To enter Z Table:
Z/2(Area to right) = Z (1-/2) (Area to left)

Z(1-.02 )= Z.98 = 2.05

 N −n 11 200 − 39
xz = 66 ± 2.05 = 66 ± 3.25
n N −1 39 200 − 1
Cairo University
Faculty of Computers and Artificial Intelligence Section#5
Probability and Statistics – 2 2022-2023

62.75 < µ < 69.25


x = 66 called as point estimate

3.25 called margin of error


Problem 4: A sample of 35 calls to the Journal Friends network selected from big population
reveals a mean cost of $23.87. If the sample standard deviation is $9.56, what is the 98 percent
interval estimate of the mean cost of all those who call?

Solution:
1) n = 35 N = ??( big|) x = 23.87  = ?? s=9.56

Is sigma known? No ,Use s


Is n >30? Yes we’ll use 𝑧

98% C.I. , check the table

To enter Z Table:
Z/2(Area to right) = Z (1-/2) (Area to left)

Z(1-.01 )= Z.99 = 2.33


Use correction factor ,no

𝑠
𝑥̅ ± 𝑧𝛼/2 ∗
√𝑛
9.56
23.87 ± 2.33 ∗
√35
23.87 ± 3.76513

20.1049 ≤ 𝜇 ≤ 27.6351

What if he asked about 99% confidence level?


𝑧0.995 = 2.57
9.56
23.87 ± 2.57 ∗
√35
Cairo University
Faculty of Computers and Artificial Intelligence Section#5
Probability and Statistics – 2 2022-2023

23.87 ± 4.15295

19.71704 ≤ 𝜇 ≤ 28.02295
Do you notice something?

Problem 5 There are 250 families in Scandia, Pennsylvania. A random of 28


families revealed the mean annual contribution to community was $450 and the
standard deviation of this was $75. As the population follows a normal distribution,
find a 90% confidence interval for the population mean.

N = 250, n = 28, s = 75, df = n − 1 = 27


Then we will use t-dist.
𝑛 28
= = 0.112 > 0.05, 𝛼 = 1 − 0.9 = 0.1, 𝑡𝛼/2 = 𝑡0.05 = 1.703
𝑁 250

s N−n
x̅ ± t α/2 √
√n N−1

75 250−28
= 450 ± 1.703 √ = 450 ± 22.79
√28 250−1

∴ 427.2085 ≤ 𝜇 ≤ 472.795

Problem 6

Suppose that, the scores of students on the faculty of commerce entrance examination for
300 students have a normal distribution with mean 18.6 and standard deviation of 5.9. Find
the probability that: The mean score of a 10 randomly chosen students is less than 18.
No need for correction factor n/N(0.03) <0.05
Cairo University
Faculty of Computers and Artificial Intelligence Section#5
Probability and Statistics – 2 2022-2023

Problem 7:
Suppose that, the scores of students on the faculty of commerce entrance examination for 300
students have a normal distribution with mean 18.6. Find the probability that: The mean score of
a 40 randomly students is less than 18, the sample standard deviation is 6.2.
o Same problem but the standard deviation was given for the sample of size 40
o And the correction factor is needed n/N(0.13) >0.05

P ( < 18)

−𝜇 18−18.6
The equation to use for z= = =-0.6459
s √𝑁−𝑛 6.3 √300−40
√𝑛
∗ 𝑁−1 √40
∗ 300−1

P (z <-0.65)=0.2578
Cairo University
Faculty of Computers and Artificial Intelligence Section#5
Probability and Statistics – 2 2022-2023

Student t-distribution
Cairo University
Faculty of Computers and Artificial Intelligence Section#5
Probability and Statistics – 2 2022-2023

Common questions

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Higher confidence levels result in wider confidence intervals because they require capturing more of the population parameter's possible variability, increasing the interval's extent to maintain the specified level of confidence. For example, a 98% confidence interval is wider than a 90% confidence interval due to the larger critical value needed to achieve higher certainty. This has implications for statistical decision-making, as wider intervals can provide more assurance but less precision in estimation. Practitioners must balance the need for confidence with the desire for a narrow range of estimates to make precise predictions or decisions .

The choice of confidence interval estimation directly affects the interpretation and reliability of a statistical study. When establishing a confidence interval for a population mean, researchers need to decide on the confidence level (e.g., 90%, 95%) and whether to use a Z or t-distribution. Higher confidence levels result in wider intervals that provide more robust assurance but reduce precision. The method chosen affects the boundaries within which the true population mean is claimed to lie with the chosen confidence. These boundaries guide researchers in making informed decisions or predictions. Different intervals might lead to varied conclusions about the same data, emphasizing the need for appropriate model selection .

Point estimates and confidence intervals are intrinsically linked in statistical analysis. A point estimate, typically the sample mean (X̅), is the best single-value prediction of a population parameter, while the confidence interval provides a range based on that point estimate, within which the true population parameter is likely to fall, given a certain confidence level. Confidence intervals give context to point estimates by indicating the precision and reliability of the estimate. They help in visualizing the interval of plausible values for the parameter, thereby affecting the interpretation by providing a measure of certainty or uncertainty around the point estimate .

In hypothesis testing, the normal distribution is typically applied when dealing with large samples (n>30) or when the population standard deviation is known, as it approximates the sampling distribution of the sample mean. On the other hand, the t-distribution is more appropriate for small sample sizes (n<=30) when the population standard deviation is unknown and must be estimated from the sample. The t-distribution accounts for the additional uncertainty of estimating the standard deviation by having heavier tails, providing wider confidence intervals and hypothesis testing regions. The choice between these distributions affects the probability of Type I errors (rejecting a true null hypothesis) and Type II errors (failing to reject a false null hypothesis).

A correction factor, known as the finite population correction (FPC), might be applied when working with a finite population where the sample size is a significant portion (greater than 5%) of the total population. The FPC is used to adjust the standard error of the estimate to account for the reduction in variability due to sampling without replacement. Applying the FPC narrows the confidence interval, reflecting the lower sampling variability when a large part of the population is measured. The correction factor is applied as √((N-n)/(N-1)), where N is the total population size and n is the sample size .

For a non-normally distributed population with a small sample size, reliable statistical inference might be more challenging as the standard t-distribution assumption of normality may not be valid. Nonetheless, some statisticians might still apply the t-distribution if they assume the sample data is approximately normal due to the central limit theorem or potential use of bootstrapping techniques as a non-parametric alternative to model the sampling distribution. The applicability of the t-distribution hinges on validating normality through transformations or prior knowledge, or using advanced methods to account for deviation from normality .

The area under the curve in Z and t statistic tables represents the probability associated with the distribution of the statistic. For both distributions, the area helps determine the likelihood of observing a value as extreme or more extreme than what is observed under the null hypothesis. In the tables, the Z score or t value corresponds to a cumulative probability or area to the left under the curve for standard normal or t-distribution, respectively. These areas are crucial for identifying critical values, which define the rejection regions for hypothesis testing. These values enable statisticians to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis at a given significance level, ensuring the statistical inference is reliable .

The Z-distribution is used for constructing confidence intervals when the population variance is known, specifically for larger sample sizes (n>30) or when the population is large and normally distributed. The formula for the confidence interval in this case is μ = X̅ ± Zα/2 * σ/√n. In contrast, the t-distribution is employed when the population variance is unknown and is particularly useful for smaller sample sizes (n<=30), where the sample is assumed to come from a normal distribution. The formula used is μ = X̅ ± tα/2 * s/√n. The t-distribution accounts for additional uncertainty in estimating the population standard deviation by using the sample standard deviation and is more spread out with heavier tails compared to the normal distribution .

It is appropriate to switch from using a Z-distribution to a t-distribution when the population standard deviation is unknown and the sample size is small (n<=30). The t-distribution should be used when the sample is drawn from a population that is approximately normally distributed. This switch accounts for the additional uncertainty in estimating the population standard deviation using the sample data, which the t-distribution's heavier tails accommodate. The appropriateness of this switch relies on the assumption that the data follows a normal distribution, ensuring the validity of the inference made using the t-distribution .

In a t-distribution, the degrees of freedom (df) are calculated as the sample size minus one (n-1). This is significant because the degrees of freedom affect the shape of the t-distribution; as the sample size increases, the t-distribution approaches the standard normal distribution. This occurs because larger samples provide more information about the population, reducing the uncertainty from estimating the population standard deviation. Eventually, with sufficiently large sample sizes, the t-distribution becomes nearly indistinguishable from the Z-distribution, making the confidence intervals narrower .

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