Topic 4:

CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION

MATH 403: Engineering Data Analysis

Engr. Alvin D. Javier
Lecturer 1

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LEARNING OBJECTIVES
At the end of this chapter, it is expected that the students will be able to:
1. Determine the probabilities from probability density functions
2. Determine the probabilities from cumulative distribution functions
3. Calculate means and variances for continuous random variables
4. Standardize normal random variables
5. Use the table for cumulative distribution function of a standard
normal distribution to calculate probabilities
6. Approximate probabilities for some binomial and Poisson
distributions
7. Use continuity corrections to improve the normal approximations to
those binomial and Poisson distributions.

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CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLE
• When a random variable can take on values on a
continuous scale, it is called a continuous random
variable.
• Often the possible values of a continuous random
variable are precisely the same values that are contained
in the continuous sample space.
• In most practical problems, continuous random variables
represent measured data, such as all possible heights,
weights, temperatures, distance, or life periods

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Continuous Probability
Distribution
Chapter 4

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CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
f(x)

x
a b c d

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CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
f(x)

𝒂
𝑷 𝒙 < 𝒂 = න 𝒇 𝒙 𝒅𝒙
𝟎

x
a b c d

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 CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
f(x)

𝒄
𝑷 𝒃 < 𝒙 < 𝒄 = න 𝒇 𝒙 𝒅𝒙
𝒃

x
a b c d

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CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
f(x)

∞
𝑷 𝒙 < 𝒂 = න 𝒇 𝒙 𝒅𝒙
𝒅

x
a b c d

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CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
f(x)

What do you think?

𝑷 𝒙=𝒂 =

x
a b c d

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CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
To summarize,
• Area is used to represent probabilities, and probabilities are
positive numerical values.
• Its probability distribution cannot be given in tabular form.
• We are dealing with an interval rather than a point value of our
random variable.
• It does not matter whether we include an endpoint of the
interval or not.
• Probability density function is constructed so that the area
under its curve bounded by the x axis is equal to 1 when
computed over the range of X for which f(x) is defined.

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PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION
Example:
Suppose that the error in the reaction temperature, in ◦C, for a
controlled laboratory experiment is a continuous random variable X
having the probability density function:

𝑥2
𝑓 𝑥 =൞3 , −1 < 𝑥 < 2,
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒.

(a) Verify that f(x) is a density function.

(b) Find P(0 < X ≤ 1).
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PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION
Example:
Suppose that the error in the reaction temperature, in ◦C, for
a controlled laboratory experiment is a continuous random variable X
having the probability density function:

𝑥2
𝑓 𝑥 =൞3 , −1 < 𝑥 < 2,
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒.

Solution:
(a) Obviously, 𝑓 𝑥 ≥ 0. To verify, we have
+∞ 2
𝑥2 𝑥3 2 8 1
න 𝑓 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = 1 = න 𝑑𝑥 = ቤ = +
−∞ −1 3 9 −1 9 9

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PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION
Example:
Suppose that the error in the reaction temperature, in ◦C, for
a controlled laboratory experiment is a continuous random variable X
having the probability density function:

𝑥2
𝑓 𝑥 =൞3 , −1 < 𝑥 < 2,
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒.

Solution:
(b) To find P(0 < X ≤ 1),
1
𝑥2 𝑥3 1 1
𝑃 0<𝑥≤1 =න 𝑑𝑥 = ቤ =
0 3 9 0 9

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CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
This is a function that represents the probability that a
continuous random variable takes on a value less than or equal to a
specific value.
The CDF for a continuous random variable 𝑋 is denoted by
𝐹 𝑥 , where 𝑥 is any number in the range of 𝑋. It is defined as:

𝒙
𝑭 𝒙 =𝑷 𝑿≤𝒙 = ‫׬‬−∞ 𝒇 𝒕 𝒅𝒕, for −∞ < 𝑥 < ∞

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CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
Example 1:
Suppose that the error in the reaction temperature, in ◦C, for a
controlled laboratory experiment is a continuous random variable X
having the probability density function:

𝑥2
𝑓 𝑥 =൞3 , −1 < 𝑥 < 2,
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒.

(a) Find F(x).

(b) Evaluate P(0 < X ≤ 1).
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CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
Example 1:
Suppose that the error in the reaction temperature, in ◦C, for
a controlled laboratory experiment is a continuous random variable X
having the probability density function:

𝑥2
𝑓 𝑥 =൞3 , −1 < 𝑥 < 2,
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒.

Solution:
(a) To get F(x),
The f(x) [pdf] is only defined for −1 < 𝑥 < 2 thus, we will
consider three cases.

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CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
CASE 1: 𝑥 ≤ −1
• For values of x less than or equal to −1, the pdf is 𝑓 𝑥 = 0, so
there’s no probability accumulated in this range:
𝑭 𝒙 = 𝟎 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝒙 ≤ −𝟏

CASE 2: −1 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 2
𝑥2
• In this range, the pdf is 𝑓 𝑥 = . To find F(x), integrate f(x) from -1
3
to x:
𝒙 𝒙
𝒕𝟐 𝒕𝟑 𝒙 𝒙𝟑 + 𝟏
𝑭 𝒙 = න 𝒇(𝒕)𝒅𝒕 = න 𝒅𝒕 = ቤ =
−∞ −𝟏 𝟑 𝟗 −𝟏 𝟗

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CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
CASE 3: 𝑥 ≥ 2
• For values of 𝑥 > 2, the PDF is 0. This means the probability
accumulated up to 𝑥 = 2 is the total probability (which is 1,
because the total probability for a PDF is always 1). Therefore:
𝑭 𝒙 = 𝟏 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝒙 ≥ 2
Getting F(x):
0, 𝑥 ≤ −1
𝑥3 + 1
𝐹 𝑥 = , −1 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 2
9
1, 𝑥≥2

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CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
Getting F(x):
0, 𝑥 ≤ −1
𝑥3 + 1
𝐹 𝑥 = , −1 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 2
9
1, 𝑥≥2
Calculate (0 < X ≤ 1):
To find the probability that X is between 0 and 1, we need to
calculate the difference between the CDF at x=1 and x=0:
𝑃 0 < 𝑥 ≤ 1 = 𝐹 1 − 𝐹(0)

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CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
𝑃 0 < 𝑥 ≤ 1 = 𝐹 1 − 𝐹(0)

Using CDF formula:

13 + 1 2
𝐹 1 = =
9 9

03 + 1 1
𝐹 0 = =
9 9

2 1 𝟏
𝑷 𝟎<𝒙≤𝟏 = − =
9 9 𝟗

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CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
Example 2:
The Department of Energy (DOE) puts projects out on bid and
generally estimates what a reasonable bid should be. Call the estimate
b. The DOE has determined that the density function of the winning (low)
bid is
5 2
𝑓 𝑦 = ቐ8𝑏 , 5
𝑏 ≤ 𝑦 ≤ 2𝑏,
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒.

(a) Find F(y).

(b) Use it to determine the probability that the winning bid is less than the
DOE’s preliminary estimate b.
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CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
Example 2:
The Department of Energy (DOE) puts projects out on
bid and generally estimates what a reasonable bid should be.
Call the estimate b. The DOE has determined that the density
function of the winning (low) bid is
5 2
𝑓 𝑦 = ቐ8𝑏 , 5
𝑏 ≤ 𝑦 ≤ 2𝑏,
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒.

Solution:
(a) To get F(y),
2
The f(y) [pdf] is only defined for 𝑏 ≤ 𝑦 ≤ 2𝑏 thus, we will
5
consider three cases.

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CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
2
CASE 1: y ≤ 𝑏
5
2
• For values of y less than or equal to 𝑏, the pdf is 𝑓 𝑦 = 0, so there’s
5
no probability accumulated in this range:
2
𝑭 𝒚 = 𝟎 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝒚 ≤ 𝑏
5
2
CASE 2: 𝑏 ≤ 𝑦 ≤ 2𝑏
5
5 2
In this range, the pdf is 𝑓 𝑦 = . To find F(y), integrate f(y) from 𝑏 to y:
8𝑏 𝒚 5
𝒚
5 𝟓𝒕 𝒚 𝟓𝒚 𝟏
𝑭 𝒚 = න 𝒇(𝒕)𝒅𝒕 = න 𝒅𝒕 = ቤ 2 = −
2 2 8𝑏 𝟖𝒃 𝑏 𝟖𝒃 𝟒
𝑏 𝑏
5 5 5
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CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
CASE 3: y ≥ 2𝑏
• For values of y > 2𝑏, the PDF is 0. This means the probability
accumulated up to y = 2𝑏 is the total probability (which is 1,
because the total probability for a PDF is always 1). Therefore:
𝑭 𝒚 = 𝟏 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝐲 > 𝟐𝒃
Getting F(y):
2
0, 𝑦≤ 𝑏
5
𝐹 𝑦 = 5𝑦 1 2
− , 𝑏 ≤ 𝑦 ≤ 2𝑏
8𝑏 4 5
1, 𝑦 ≥ 2𝑏
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CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
𝑃(𝑌 ≤ 𝑏) = 𝐹(𝑏)

Using CDF formula:

5𝑦 1
𝐹 𝑦 = −
8𝑏 4

5𝑏 1 5 1
𝐹 𝑏 = − = −
8𝑏 4 8 4

𝟑
𝑃(𝑌 ≤ 𝑏) = 𝐹(𝑏) =
𝟖

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PDF vs CDF
ASPECT PDF CDF
Definition Likelihood of a value around Total probability of being
a specific point (density). less than or equal to a value.
Values Non-negative values, not Ranges from 0 to 1.
exceeding 1 in total.
Probability Area under the curve over Directly gives probability.
Calculation an interval.
Graph Shows likelihood at a Shows cumulative
specific point (curve height). probability (always
increasing).
Relationship Derivative of CDF Integral of PDF

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Expected Value of Continuous
Random Variables
Chapter 4

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EXPECTED VALUE
• The expected value of a random variable is the long-term average
or the center of its distribution.
• For continuous random variables, it is calculated using an integral
because the probability is spread out continuously.

+∞
𝑬 𝑿 =න 𝒙 ∙ 𝒇 𝒙 𝒅𝒙
−∞

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EXPECTED VALUE
Example 1:
The time, in seconds, it takes to reheat a cup of coffee can be modelled by the
continuous random variable X, with probability density function:
3𝑥 2
𝑓 𝑥 =൞ 8 , 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 2,
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒.
(a) Calculate the expected value of amount of time it takes to reheat a cup of coffee.

Solution:
2
3𝑥 2 3 4 2
𝑬 𝑿 =න 𝑥∙ 𝑑𝑥 = 𝑥 ฬ = 𝟏. 𝟓
0 8 32 0

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EXPECTED VALUE
Example 2:
𝑥2
Let X have range [-1, 3] and density of . Calculate the
3
expected value.

Solution:
3
𝑥2 𝑥4 3
𝑬 𝑿 = න 𝑥 ∙ 𝑑𝑥 = ቤ = 𝟐. 𝟏𝟔𝟔𝟕
−1 3 12 −1

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Continuous Uniform
Distribution
Chapter 4

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CONTINUOUS UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION
• The continuous uniform distribution is a type of probability
distribution where all outcomes in a certain interval are equally
likely.
• It is often referred to as a "rectangular distribution" because its
probability density function (PDF) has a constant value over the
interval, forming the shape of a rectangle.

1
𝑓 𝑥 = ; 𝑎≤𝑥≤𝑏
𝑏−𝑎
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CONTINUOUS UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION
f(x)

x
a b

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 CONTINUOUS UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION
f(x) If 𝐴 = 1, and L = 4,
what is the value of f(x) [width]?
6–2=4
2 6 𝐴=𝐿∙𝑊
1=4∙𝑊
1
𝑊 = 𝑓(𝑥) =
4

𝟏
𝒇 𝒙 = ; 𝒂≤𝒙≤𝒃
𝒃−𝒂

x
a b

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CONTINUOUS UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION
Example 1:
The amount of time a person must wait for a train to arrive in a
certain town is uniformly distributed between 0 and 40 minutes.
(a) Determine the probability density function f(x).
(b) What is the probability that a person must wait less than 8
minutes?
(c) What is the probability that a person must wait more than 30
minutes?
(d) Calculate P(10 < x < 26), P(x=20), and P(x>45)?

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CONTINUOUS UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION
Solution:
(a) Determine the probability density function f(x).
0 40 – 0 = 40 If 𝐴 = 1, and L = 40,
f(x) 40
what is the value of f(x) [width]?

𝐴=𝐿∙𝑊
1 = 40 ∙ 𝑊
1
𝑊 = 𝑓(𝑥) =
40

1 1 𝟏
x 𝑓 𝑥 = = =
𝑏 − 𝑎 40 − 0 𝟒𝟎
a b
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 CONTINUOUS UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION
Solution:
(b) What is the probability that a person must wait less than 8
minutes?
0 40 – 0 = 40 𝐴 =𝐿∙𝑊
f(x) 40
1
8 A=8∙
40
1/40
8 1
𝐴= =
40 5

𝑨 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟎 𝒐𝒓 𝟐𝟎%
x
a b
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 CONTINUOUS UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION
Solution:
(c) What is the probability that a person must wait more than 30
minutes?
0 40 – 0 = 40 𝐴 =𝐿∙𝑊
f(x) 40 1
A = 10 ∙
30 40
1/40
10 1
𝐴= =
40 4

𝑨 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 𝒐𝒓 𝟐𝟓%
x
a b
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 CONTINUOUS UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION
Solution:
(c) Calculate P(10 < x < 26).

0 40 – 0 = 40 𝐴 =𝐿∙𝑊
f(x) 40 1
10
A = 16 ∙
26 40
1/40
16 2
𝐴= =
40 5

𝑨 = 𝟎. 𝟒𝟎 𝒐𝒓 𝟒𝟎%
x
a b
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 CONTINUOUS UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION
Solution:
(c) Calculate P(x=20).

0 40 – 0 = 40 𝐴 =𝐿∙𝑊
f(x) 40 1
20 A=0∙
40
1/40
𝐴=0

𝑷(𝒙 = 𝟐𝟎) = 𝟎
x
a b
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 Topic 4:
CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION

MATH 403: Engineering Data Analysis

Engr. Alvin D. Javier
Lecturer 1

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reproduction, distribution, or use of any part of this presentation without the express written permission of the author is prohibited.