1.
Confidence Interval for a Sample Proportion
a. What is the formula for the confidence interval for a sample proportion?
Below is the formula:
CI = p̂ ± Z * √[p̂ (1 - p̂ ) / n]
Where:
CI = Confidence Interval
p̂ = the sample proportion of the population
Z = the critical value of the desires corresponding confidence level , for example 1.96 critical
level for 95%
n = sample size of the population
With a given degree of confidence, this formula determines the interval around the
sample percentage that most likely contains the genuine population proportion.
b. What parameters of the formula above can you modify to ensure that the confidence interval
captures the population parameter?
You can change the following parameters to improve the probability that the confidence
interval will reflect the population parameter:
1. Increase Sample Size (n): More accurate estimates of population parameters are
produced with narrower intervals since a bigger sample size lowers estimate variability.
2. Modify Confidence Level (Z): By raising Z (for example, from 95% to 99%), the
interval becomes wider and has a higher chance of capturing the actual population
parameter.
3. Minimize Sampling Bias: To increase representativeness, make sure sampling is random
and steer clear of systematic mistakes in data gathering.
You can improve accuracy or increase intervals by raising the sample size or the
confidence level, respectively, which increases the likelihood of capturing p.
c. Conditions Necessary for Central Limit Theorem (CLT)
According to the Central Limit Theorem (CLT), sampling distributions of means or
proportions will converge to normality as sample size grows, irrespective of the
distribution of the population, provided specific criteria are satisfied.
At the Normal Population Level:
If we are aware that the distribution of the population is normal:
1. In the case of small sample sizes (n < 30):
For a substantially good approximation, n must be more than 30 according to the
CLT.
Extreme skewers or outliers should not be present in the data.
2. For large population:
Even severely skewed distributions will yield somewhat normal sampling
distributions as n grows very big (e.g., n > 100) because of CLT.
d. Difference between Standard Error and Margin of Error
Inferential statistics uses two similar but different concepts: standard error (SE) and
margin of error (ME)
Standard Error: SE quantifies the degree of variation in a statistic among several
population samples. It measures the amount of uncertainty caused by sampling variability
in an estimate. SE is equal to √[p̂ (1 - p̂ ) / n] for proportions.
The margin of error, or ME, is the amount that, at a given confidence level, we anticipate
our estimate to differ from the actual population parameter. ME = Z * SE takes into
account both SE and critical values from Z-scores.
Reference:
Diez, D. M., Barr, C. D., & Çetinkaya-Rundel, M., (2019), Openintro statistics - Fourth
edition. Open Textbook Library.
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