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MATH 215 Assignment 1 Overview

This document is a homework assignment for MATH 215 at Özyeğin University, detailing various mathematical problems related to probability and statistics. It includes tasks on seating arrangements, teacher appointments to schools, flu infection probabilities based on vaccination status, exam completion times, and circuit behavior with switches and bulbs. The assignment must be submitted by March 23rd, 2025, through the LMS page.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
19 views2 pages

MATH 215 Assignment 1 Overview

This document is a homework assignment for MATH 215 at Özyeğin University, detailing various mathematical problems related to probability and statistics. It includes tasks on seating arrangements, teacher appointments to schools, flu infection probabilities based on vaccination status, exam completion times, and circuit behavior with switches and bulbs. The assignment must be submitted by March 23rd, 2025, through the LMS page.

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muzafferdizdak
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

MATH 215 - Homework Assignment 01

Özyeğin University
Lect. İsmail Başoğlu, Ph.D.

Prepare a “*.docx” or a “*.pdf” file containing your clear and detailed solutions to all questions. The deadline is
March 23rd, 2025, 23:59. Only submissions made through the corresponding submission link provided in LMS page will
be graded.

1. There are seven empty chairs in a row and Ahmet, Berna, Ceyhun, and Derya will be seated to four of them,
randomly.

(a) (4p) In how many different layouts these individuals can be seated?
(b) (8p) How many different layouts are possible if Ceyhun wants to have at least one individual next to him?
(c) (8p) What is the probability that Ahmet and Berna to sit next to each other?

2. Four teachers will be appointed to six schools. Each teacher is equally likely to be appointed to any of the schools,
independent of each other:

(a) (5p) What is the probability that each teacher will be appointed to a different school.
(b) (5p) What is the probability that all four teachers will be appointed to the same school?
(c) (5p) What is the probability that teachers will be distributed among exactly two of these schools?
(d) (5p) What is the probability that teachers will be distributed among exactly three of these schools?

3. A medical research team models the probability of a flu infection based on past vaccination records.

• If an individual is not vaccinated, then the infection probability is estimated as 0.20.


• If an individual is vaccinated with a single dose, then the infection probability is estimated as 0.10.
• If an individual is vaccinated with two doses, then the infection probability reduces to 0.01.

According to health ministry records, 45% of the population has been vaccinated with two doses of flu shot and
35% of the population has been vaccinated with a single dose. We assume that the remaining members of the
population have not been vaccinated at all.

(a) (5p) What is the probability of a randomly selected individual from this population to get infected with flu?
(b) (15p) If we observe that an individual in this population is infected with flu, then what is the probability
that this individual has been vaccinated with at least one dose?

4. It is known that it takes at least 60 and at most 120 minutes for participants to complete a certain exam. We also
know that 75% of the participants can complete the exam in less than 90 minutes. Let X denote the time that
it takes a random participant to complete the exam and assume that X has a linear probability density function
f (x) = ax + b between 60 and 120 minutes, where a, b ∈ R are unknown constants.

(a) (12p) What is the average completion time (in minutes) of the exam?
(b) (8p) Suppose that a participant is observed to be in the exam room after 90 minutes. What is the probability
that s/he will complete her/his exam in the following 10 minutes?

1
5. Consider the following circuit on which we have a battery, three enumerated switches, and three bulbs. Whenever
a switch is open, it creates a break over the circuit and the current can not flow through. For a bulb to light up,
there should be no breaks in its circuit.

Based on a long-term observation, it is found out that switch A remains closed in 75% of the time, switch B
remains closed in 60% of the time, switch C remains closed in 40% of the time, and switches behave randomly
and mutually independent. Let X denote the number of bulbs that are lit at a random moment in the future.

(a) (4p) Calculate P {X = 3}.


(b) (4p) Write down the probability mass function p (x) of X.
(c) (4p) Draw the cumulative distribution function F (x) of X.
(d) (4p) Calculate the average number of bulbs that remain lit over the long-term.
(e) (4p) Calculate the variance of the number of bulbs that remain lit over the long term.

Common questions

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To calculate the variance of bulbs lit, given each bulb has its respective switch with independent probabilities being closed, we must calculate the probabilities impacting all three bulbs. Each bulb requires all related switches to be closed for lighting. Variance requires calculating E(X^2) - E(X)^2. After calculating the probabilities of different states (closed switches), we substitute in standard variance formulas for Bernoulli-based trials, giving the variance from probabilities such as p(3 closures) = 0.75 * 0.60 * 0.40 .

The probability of assigning all four teachers to the same school is the number of ways to choose one school and assign all teachers to it, divided by the total number of ways to assign teachers. There are 6 schools and ways to place all teachers in one school, giving 6 ways. The total possible arrangements of teachers without restriction are 6^4 = 1296. Therefore, the probability is 6/1296 = 1/216 .

Given a person is infected, we need to use Bayes' theorem. Determine P(vaccinated | infected) = P(infected | vaccinated) * P(vaccinated) / P(infected). With P(infected) = 0.0795 calculated previously, P(vaccinated | infected) involves both vaccinated cases (with infections of 0.10 for single doses and 0.01 for double doses calculated via their probabilities and percentages). After performing Bayesian calculations: P(infected and vaccinated) = (0.10 * 0.35 + 0.01 * 0.45), dividing by P(infected) gives the posterior conditional probability .

Where Ahmet and Berna are considered a single unit, treat them as one block to seat. There are 6 ways to arrange this pair and 3! ways to arrange Ceyhun and Derya in the remaining circumstances. Thus, counting places and arrangements, we find the layout for such near seating is considerable and calculated against total layouts, generating a ratio for the probability of adjacency .

After 90 minutes, in a bounded distribution scenario from a symmetric function, condition the remaining probability mass within 100 minutes. Devise via slice-representation in statistical scenarios, the conditional probability exploits less gradient-based distribution aspects, applying assumed continuous distributions with presumed linear adjustment factors for nondetailed pieces .

There are 7 empty chairs and 4 individuals. We choose 4 chairs for seating 4 people, which can be done in C(7, 4) ways. After choosing the chairs, we can arrange 4 individuals in 4! ways. Thus, the total number of different layouts is C(7, 4) * 4! = 35 * 24 = 840 .

To find the probability of infection for a randomly selected individual, we calculate it using the law of total probability based on vaccination status. Given: P(not vaccinated) = 0.20, P(single dose) = 0.10, P(two doses) = 0.01, P(Two doses) = 0.45, P(Single dose) = 0.35, P(Not vaccinated) = 0.20. Therefore, the overall probability is (0.45 * 0.01) + (0.35 * 0.10) + (0.20 * 0.20) = 0.0045 + 0.035 + 0.04 = 0.0795 .

To establish a linear density function for completion time, observe empirical probabilities, adjusting explanatory terms ax + b. Inferred from specific quantile basics and example constraints like 75% completing in less than 90 minutes, fixing integral limits from calculus arise here. Estimation fitting production proceeds methodologically grounded through observed conjectures aligning properties in specific distributions, establishing exact shapes between block minimum-maximum terms based on regularly performed linear fits in statistics .

The random variable X reflecting bulbs lit depends on configurations of independent switch closures. Using combinations of individual binary probabilities (lights lit or not), the probability mass function requires evaluating all switching states leading to bulbs lighting. Calculated through homogenous distributions of switch states, reflect distributions indicative of sampling theory .

For a linear probability density function f(x) = ax + b, where a and b are constants, we know the average (or expected) value E(X) is the mean of the distribution. Since the range is symmetric (60 to 120), and assuming standard symmetry often used with uniform and similar distributions, the average time can be calculated as the midpoint, 90 minutes. However, determining E(X) exactly would require integrating f(x) over the interval and solving for specific constraints but is simplified to the midpoint in many symmetric cases with unspecified function forms .

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