Human geography

Chapter 5:
 Although the worlds population is increasing, but the increase are occurring
in less developed parts of the world that are currently least capable of
supporting them
o Whereas the population in the developed world remain unchanged
 The present theme:
o The uncertainty that such increases in the less developed world imply
for human well-being
 Population greatly links to famine, diseases and environmental deterioration
 Demography
o The study of population (size and makeup)
o The process that influence the composition of populations (fertility
and mortality)
o Links between populations and the larger human environments of
which they are a part
 Fertility
o All aspects of human reproduction that lead to live births, refer to the
actual number of live births produced by a woman
o All global changes in population size can be understood by reference
to fertility and mortality. Thus:
 P1 = P0 + B – D
 P1 = population at time 1
 P0 = population at time 0
 B = number of birth between times 0 and 1
 D = number of death between times 0 and 1
o Fertility and mortality rates vary significantly according to time and
location
 Both are affected by different variables
o At a subglobal level, a third factor becomes relevant: migration into
and out of that particular subdivision of the world. Thus,
 P1 = P0 + B – D + I - E
 I = number of immigrations to area between times 0 to
1
 E = number of emigrations to area between times 0 to 1
 Fertility measures
o Simplest and most common is crude birth rate (CBR), the total number
of lives births in a given period (usually one year) for every 1000
people already living. Thus,
number of live birth∈one year
 CBR= x 1000
mid− year total population
 2014 CBR is 20
 Typically ranged from minimum of 8 (theoretical min is 0) to
maximum of 55
  May be misleading since births are related to the total
population and not the subset that is able to conceive
o For a more accuracy measure female fecundity, the ability of a woman
to conceive (produce a child).
 The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of
children a woman will have, assuming she has children at the
prevailing age-specific rates, as she passes through the fecund
year
7

 ∑ number of births ¿ w oman∈age group A given period

A=1
TFR=5 ¿
mid − year number of females∈age group A
 A refers to the seven 5-year age groups of 15-19, 20-24, 25-29,
30-34, 35-39, 40-44, and 45-49
 Generally, a TFR of between 2.1 and 2.5 is considered
replacement-level fertility, it maintains a stable population
 Low figure applies to the areas with low mortality (few females
dying before having children) and high figure to areas with
high level of mortality (more females dying before having
children)
 Factors affecting fertility
o Affected by biological, economic, and cultural factors
 Biological factors
o Age is a key
o For females, fecundity begins at 15, reaches a maximum in the late
twenties and terminates in the late forties
o Some females and males are sterile (incapable of reproduction)
o Reproductive behaviour is also affected by nutritional well-being
 Illness likely will have impaired fertility
o Low body fat tend to be less fecund
o Members of nomadic pastoral societies, with low body fat since they
eat a lo-starch diet, are characterized by low fertility
 Economic factors
o With increasing industrialization and urbanization, fertility declines
o Pro-natallist, argue with this since they prefer a large family
 In contrast, modern societies emphasize small families and
individual independence
o The decision to have a child is a cost-benefit decision
 Cultural factors
o Most cultural groups view marriage as the most appropriate setting
for reproduction
o There are several measures of nuptiality (extent to which a
population marries)
number of marriages∈one year
 Nuptiality rate = mis− year total population x 1000
  The year which females marry is important since it may reduce
the number of effective fecund years
o Late marriage and non-marriage are usually explained by reference to
social organization and economic aspirations
o Fertility is also affected by contraceptive use
 Use all around the world but more in developed world
 The les developed world have lower rates of contraceptive use
o Another cultural factor affecting fertility is abortion
 The deliberate termination of an unwanted pregnancy
 For every three, one pregnancy is deliberately terminated
 About 40 per cent of women live in countries with restricted
abortion laws
 It is still subject to condemnation, usually on religious and
moral grounds
 Variations in fertility
o Correspond closely to those in levels of economic development
o Modernization and economic development have been related to lower
levels of fertility, mainly since the onset of the industrial revolution
o The more developed world had a CBR of 11 and a TFR of 1.6
o Less developed world had a CBR of 22 and a TFR od 2.6
o Fertility rates in the less developed world are decreasing, and the
reasons are more cultural than economic
o Fertility within a country is higher for those with low incomes and for
those with limited education
 Mortality
o May be measured in crude death rate (CDR), the total number of
deaths in a given period (usually one year) for every 1000 people
living. Thus,
number of deaths∈one year
 CDR= X 1000
mid− year total population
 Ranged from a minimum of 5 to maximum of 50
 Does not take into account the fact that the probability of dying
is closely related to age \slightly higher for the very young and
the very old
o The most useful is the infant mortality rate (IMR), the number of
deaths of infants under 1 year old per 1000 live births in a given year.
number of infant deathsunder one year old
 IMR= X 1000
number of births∈that year
 IMR is sensitive to cultural and economic conditions, declining
as medical and health services improving and better nutrition
o Although not a mortality rate, but it reflects it as it is the life
expectancy (LE), the average number of years to be lived from birth
 Factors affecting mortality
o Generally reflects on socio-economic status
 o High LE statistics are associated with high-quality living and working
conditions, good nutrition, good sanitation and widely available
medical services
o When disease is prevalent, mortality increases
o Mortality is higher when countries experience conflicts
 Variations in mortality
o Tells us how people lived their lives since many of them are not dead
cause of aging but as a result of environmental conditions and/or
lifestyle
o Mortality measures also vary markedly within countries
o Social inequality of death
 Certain groups have higher CDR rates and IMFs and lower LE
than the population as a whole
 Natural increases
o The rate of natural increase (RNI) measures the rate (usually annual)
of population growth by subtracting the CDR from the CBR
o The size of annual has been relatively constant in recent years,
meaning that world population is still increasing but at a slowly
decreasing rate
o RNI data take into account only mortality and fertility, not migration,
they generally do not reflect the true population change of any areas
smaller than the earth
o The total world population continues to grow rapidly because of
population momentum
 The tendency for population growth to continue beyond the
time that replacement-level fertility has been reached because
of the relatively high number of people in the child-bearing
years
 Regional variations
o Large populations grow faster than small ones, even when they have
lower fertility rates
 Doubling time
o The number of years needed to double the size of a population,
assuming a constant RNI
o An RNI of 0 (where CDR and CBR are equal) results in a stable
population with an infinite doubling time
 Government policies
o Indirectly or directly control deaths, births, and migrations
 To reduce mortality
o Do not ensure that all members of their population have equal access
to the same quality of health care
o While many governments choose not to establish any formal policies,
either because of indifference to the issue or because public opinion is
divided, others are either actively pro-natalist or actively are anti-
natalist
 Pro-natalist policies
o Exist in countries dominated by a catholic or Islamic theology, in
countries where the politically dominant ethnic group is in danger of
being numerically overtaken by an ethnic minority, and in countries
where a larger population is perceived as necessary for economic or
strategic reasons
o Other countries are also greatly concerned about low fertility
o In a country where about 80 per cent of the population are adherents
of this faith and the patriarch is held in great esteem, the immediate
result was a 20 per cent increase in births in 2008
o More and more countries will adopt pro-natalist polices if their
fertility declines to the point where not only the economic but also the
political and cultural consequences come to be seen as unacceptable
 Such polices could be implemented if it is feared that
immigrants entering a country to take up that slack in the
labour force will lead to a smaller native-born population and a
loss of national identity
 Anti-natalist policies
o The most common policies relating to births are currently anti-
natalist
o Since 1960, many of the less developed countries have initiated
policies deigned to reduce fertility
o Argument is that overpopulation is a real danger and the carry
capacity had been (or will soon to be) exceed
 Carry capacity- the maximum population that can be
supported by a given set of resources and a given level of
technology
 It ignores the fact that carrying capacity is not static
o India was the first country to intervene actively to reduce fertility
 Designed programs to encourage contraceptive use and
sterilization
o China, has made great strides towards reducing fertility
 Family was restricted to only have one child
 Appropriate marring age is 28 for males and 25 for females
 Will receive a financial penalty if have more than one
 Forced abortion if cant pay
 Fertility is reducing due to the fact that there are more
educated women, better health care
 Now policy has changed to two children instead of one
 The best policy?
o Anti-natal policies have destroyed lives and are derived from
imperialist ideas of supremacy and the presumed ignorance of others
o Anti-natal policies may not be needed
 Due to the fact that women are receiving better education,
health care, and they decide to have fewer children
 o Many anti-natal policies were put in place by government officials, or
presumed experts from more developed countries, on the arrogant
grounds that people do not know what is best for themselves
 It is perhaps a fine line between arrogance, assuming what is
best for others, and inhumanity, requiring that people behave
in ways deemed appropriate by others
 The composition of a population:
 Age and sex structure
o The growth of a population is affected by the population’s age
composition
o Age composition is dynamic
o It is usual to represent age and sex compositions with a population
pyramid
o Three general patterns can be suggested:
 If a population is rapidly expanding, a high proportion of the
total population will be in the younger age groups
 If a population is relatively stable, each age group, barring the
older groups that are losing numbers, is similarly sized
 If a population is declining, the younger groups will be smaller
than the older group
o The pyramid distinguishes male and female and divide them into five-
year age categories
 Each bar in the pyramid indicates the percentage of the total
population that particular group makes up
o Discussions of the number of males and females in a population refers
to the sex ratio (a masculinity ratio as it relates the number of males
to the number of females)
o More males in younger age, female will overtake male middle age, and
older age there will be more females
 Global population aging
o The year 2000 was a watershed, people under 14 are outnumbered by
people over 60
o The process by which older individuals come to make up a
proportionally larger share of the total population is known as
population aging
o Global aging is occurring at an increasing rate
 The older population is growing faster than the total
population in most parts of the world
o However, the life expectancy in the less developed world are lower
 History of population growth
o The principal constraints on growth were climate and the available of
food
o Human population has been increasing and decreasing throughout the
time
 Now its increasing, however its increasing slowly
 Reasons for growth
o Evolution of speech, which facilitated co-operation in the search for
food; the introduction of monogamy, which increased the chances that
children would survive, and the use of fire and clothing
 The rise of agriculture
o The process of which human domesticated animals and plants
o As agriculture spread, the first human economic activities of hunting
and gathering became marginal
o Before the cultural innovation of agriculture, population numbers had
changed little, increasing and decreasing depending on cultural
advances and physical constraints
o However, following the introduction of agriculture, birth rates
remained high but death rates fluctuated
o The pace of growth remained slow in the absence of any major
cultural advance
 The rise of industry
o This development initiated a rapid growth and diffusion of
technologies, and industry replaced agriculture as the dominant
productive sector
o The second revolution involved the large-scale exploitation of new
sources of energy- coal, oil and electricity
 Rapid reduction in death rate
 But in equally significant drop in birth rates
 The current situation
o The growth initially spurred by industrialization has ceased in the
more developed world, but rapid growth continues in the less
developed world
 Thus, the total world population continues to increase
substantially
o To summarize the current situation, the world population growth
rate- the rate of natural increase- has fallen from a late 1960s high o
2.04 per cent per year to 1.2 per cent per year
 The population will grow less rapidly as it did in the past
 But it will still grow due to population momentum
 Population projections
o The principal reason for us making a better forecast is that both
fertility and mortality rates now lie within narrower ranges than was
previously the case
o Current UN projections suggest a world population of 9.7 billion for
2050
 This projection assumes that the mortality transition will be
complete at that time, such that CDR is equal throughout the
world
o There are two complicated issues regarding this projection
  The assumption of a continually declining TFR may be
questioned
 It is possible that population numbers will collapse because of
limits to growth, that world population was likely to exceed
world carrying capacity, leading to a population and economic
collapse
 This thesis is articulated by catastrophists, but another, more
positive view is articulated by cornucopias
o As long as technological development continues, the earth is not really
finite, for technology creates resource
o A slowdown in population growth will lead to a slowdown in
economic growth
 Explaining population growth
o Five different theories and models are described and evaluated:
1. The S-shaped curve model
o The s-shaped curve is produced under carefully controlled
experimental conditions
o The growth process begins slowly, then increases rapidly
(exponentially), and finally levels out at some ceiling
o Using the curve as a predictive tool is risky since it does take into
account the variety of cultural and economic factors that affect human
populations
2. Malthusian theory
o Saw population growth as the main cause of poverty
o Overpopulation when food and other necessities of human life
were in such short supply that life-threatening circumstances
arose
o Opposed the prevailing school of economic thought, mercantilism,
which was explicitly pro-natalist; for mercantilism, more births meant
more wealth since a large labour force was needed to increase
national productivity and overseas to increase strength in the colonies
o Humans theoretically have the capacity to anticipate and therefore
avoid the consequences by deliberately reducing fertility through
adoption of what called preventive checks, such as moral restraint
and delayed marriage
o Malthus’s central concern was imbalance between population and
food
o Events have proven Malthus incorrect, today, what might be called
neo-Malthusian theory is frequently purported to be relevant in the
less developed world
3. Marxist theory
o Believed that population growth must be considered in relation to the
prevailing mode of production in a given society
o Saw the capitalist system as the primary cause
 o The problem was a population problem t all but a resource
distribution problem caused by capitalism
4. Boserup theory
o Subsistence farmers select farming systems that permit them to
maximize their leisure time and will change these systems only if
population increases and it becomes necessary to increase the food
supply accordingly
o By reducing the amount of land left fallow and then by
employing multi-cropping, so that the supply of food is
increased to feed the additional population
5. The demographic transition
o This is different than the previous four
o This model is a descriptive generalization
o Describes changing levels of fertility and mortality, and hence
of natural increase, over time in the contemporary, more
developed world
o It is based on known facts rather than specific axioms or general
assumptions
o More realistic than the other explanations
o However, it does not offer a bold, provocative perspective or
hypothesis
o The first stage of the demographic transition is characterized by a
high CBR and a high CDR (the two rates are approximately equal)
o High mortality rate is due to lack of clean water and sewage
system
o Throughout this stage, infant mortality is high and life
expectancy low
o The high birth rates are characteristic of a situation where
there is no incentive to reduce birth
o This stage involves a low-income agriculture economy
o The second stage, CDR is reduced dramatically as a result of the onset
of urbanization and industrialization and related sanitation, medical,
and health advances
o This reduction is not accompanied by a parallel reduction in
CBR; consequently, the RNI is high and population growth is
rapid
o Within the larger context of urbanization and industrialization,
there are several specific reasons for the decline in deaths
o Improvements in agricultural technologies, especially crop
rotation and selective breeding, preceding the Industrial
Revolution,
o Better conditions of life
o The third stage is a declining CBR, the result of voluntary decisions to
reduce family size
 o Voluntary birth control is related to declining death rates, as
parents realize that fewer births are needed; generally to
increased standards of living; and, critically, to the
empowerment of women
o Improvements in female literacy and in employment
opportunities
o The RNI falls as the CBR approaches the already low CDR
o In the forth stage. The CBR and CDR are once again approximately
equal but are low, as is in RNI
o Fertility rates below replacement level and an aging population
 Distribution and density
o Determining population distributions and densities, where people are
located and in what numbers, is one of the human geographer’s
central concerns
o Establishing these basic facts normally through a census, is not as easy
as you might think, there are three related problems
 The required data are not available for all countries
 Might not be reliable
 May reflect different divisions from the ones we are interested
in
o Since distribution and density statistics are closely related to spatial
scale, they often suggest an inaccurate picture of reality
 Distribution of world population
o Most of the population is located in the less developed world
o The countries with the largest populations are not those wit the
highest densities
 Migration
o Population movement has contributed to the current pattern and as it
occurs today
o Humans have always moved from one location to another
o Such movements expanded the resource base available, facilitated
overall population increases, and stimulated cultural change by
requiring ongoing adaptations to new environmental circumstances
o Migration may be defined as a particular kind of mobility that involves
a spatial movement of residence
 Migration movements involve a change of residence, distanced
moved, numbers of persons involved, the cultural and
economic characteristics of those moving, consequences of
movement
 Why people migrate
o Strive to improve their quality of life
o We have identify five approaches to this topic:
1. Push-pull logic
 o Best to describe as a useful generalization, people move from one
location to another because they consider the new location to be
more favourable than the old location
o Key idea of inequalities from place to place
o Being located in an unattractive area is a push; being aware of an
attractive alternative area is a pull
o Typical elements can be sorted into four categories:
o Economic
 Migration is a consequence of differences in income,
with people moving from low to high income areas
 Relatively low income is a push
 Relatively high income is a pull
 Relatively availability of agricultural land
o Political
 Conflict, some felt obliged to seek refugee in a
country other than their own
o Cultural
 Migrants are most likely o move to areas that they
perceive as similar in terms of language and
religions
o Environmental
 Most migrations have been towards the temperate
climate areas
o Push factors at one place depend on pull factors at others
o As obvious as push-pull reasoning may seem, it does have a
serious limitation:
o It assumes that people invariably behave according to the
logic of a theory
o It is unable to explain why some people decide to stay in an
unfavourable area when a more favourable alternative is
available
2. Laws of migration
o Are not laws in a formal, positivistic sense but generalizations with
varying degrees of applicability
o Fail to take into account individual differences
3. The mobility transition
o Derived from the concept of demographic transition
o Five phase of temporal changes in migration:
o The pre-modern traditional society
 Features minimal residential migration and only
limited human mobility
 Temporally parallel to the first stage of the
demographic transition
o The early transitional society
  Numerically significant migration begins in the form
of rural-to-urban and overseas movements
 Temporally parallel to the second stage of the
demographic transition
o The late transitional society
 Rural-to-urban mobility declines, but remains
numerically significant, while overseas migration is
drastically reduced
 Temporary parallel to the third stage of the
demographic transition
o The advanced society
 Residential mobility continues apace
 Rural-to-urban movement lessens but continues
 Urban-to-urban movement is significant
 International migration increases, with both
unskilled and skilled workers moving from the less
developed to the more developed world
 Temporary parallel to the fourth stage of the
demographic transition
o A future, super-advanced society
 Attempt to predict the future, stating the most
migration is between urban centres
o Each five societies has particular migration characteristics
o Its useful, but it can be seen as an example of developmentalism,
a “geography of ladders”
o In which “the world is viewed as a series of hearth areas
out of which modernization diffuses, so that the Third
World’s future can be explicitly read from the First World’s
past and present in idealized maps and graphs of
developmental social change”
4. A behavioural explanation
o It explains why people migrate shifts attention to the people
themselves and away from the forces presumed to be affecting
their decisions
o Label this approach the behavioural view of migration, since it
centres on the behaviour of individuals rather than on aggregate,
large-group, behaviour
o Place utility
o A measure of the extent to which an individual is satisfied
with particular locations
o Typically, the place utility that people attribute to their
current place of residence is much better grounded in fact
than the place utility they attribute to other locations
o Place utility is thus an individually focused version of push-
pull logic
 o Which argued that it was necessary to research an
individual’s spatial preferences (individual evaluation of
the relative attractiveness of different locations)
5. Moorings
o The ideas of moorings issues through which individuals five
meanings to their lives (life-course issues, cultural issues, spatial
issues)
o One way of advancing studies in this area is to acknowledge that
migration reflects a personal decision made within a larger
political and economic framework
o Moorings approach centres on the idea that individuals’
perception of their current location, and hence the likelihood of
their either remaining there or migration to another location
o Depends on the value they place on their various moorings
 The selectivity of migration
o Migration is a selective process
o Areas in themselves are neither unattractive nor attractive
 Relative attractiveness is a mater of subjective, individual
perception
o Among the factors that appear to influence individual decisions about
migration are age; marital status (from less developed to more
developed world); gender (male tend to migrate more); occupation
(higher skilled workers tend to migrate more); and education
o There is a useful relationship between life cycle and the likelihood of
individual migration
 Life cycle- the process of change experienced by individuals
over their lifespans
o There are substantial different between what people would like to do
and what they are able to do
 Some who want to migrate may be unable to leave for reasons
 Some want to move to a specific new area may not be able to
due to the immigration policies in that new area
o Potential migrants need to consider the economic and personal costs;
some may be unable to pay for the move; some may not be able to
move due to health, age, or family circumstances
 Types of migration
o Primitive migration
 Specific instance of adaption to environment, in which people
respond to an unfavourable environment by leaving it in
search of a more favourable one
 Tend to make such adaptation decisions on a group rather than
on an individual basis
o Forced migration
 Slavery was a significant institution in early civilizations
 Slaves forced to migrate from areas occupied
  Impelled migration would include the many cases in which
people have chosen to flee oppressive political regimes, war
zones and areas of famine
 Most of the contemporary refugee movements are impelled
 Most forced and impelled migrations are related to the actions
of others who directly influence the migration decision
o Free migration
 The person has the choice either to stay or to move
 Takes pace within rather than between countries
 Move from rural to urban areas and from central to suburban
zones within urban areas
 Tend to selective, reflecting the migrants’ stage in the life cycle
 Move to a more developed world
o Mass migration
 Free migrations prompted by push-pull factors that are widely
experienced and involve larger numbers or people
 Movement from densely settled countries to less densely ones
 Free and mass migration lies at the root of some of the most
difficult political issues in the world
o Also illegal migration
 Illegal exit occurs when a country prohibits out-movement
 Illegal entry occurs when people enter a country without
official approval
 Illegal immigrated violate immigration laws, but other
immigrants become “illegal” trough no fault of their own, as a
result of policy changes or the complexities f maintaining legal
residency
 The simple explanation sees such illegal movement as the
result of desperate push factors (overpopulation, political
turmoil, economic crises) combined with irresistible pull
factors (high wages, plentiful job opportunities)
 Many of the movement involves moving to many developed
countries
 Conclusion
o Awareness of population is the key since it relates to important topics
as global inequality, political conflict, changing agricultural, urban
growth, and industrial activity
o World population continues to increase markedly but at a decreasing
rate such that population may stabilize at about 10 billion people in
2200
o Women in less developed countries are having fewer children, they
are better educated and more empowered than in the past
o Declining fertility and longer life expectancy are causing populations
to age
o Government attempts to control fertility, but now fertility varies due
to the decisions that women are able to make
o Population is distributed unevenly on the earth, with areas of high
density related especially to agricultural potential
o The current distribution of people is also an outcome of a long history
of migration