Time series analysis and forecasting
Master in Big Data Analytics
Final Project: Advanced forecasting tools
Deadline: March 20th, 2025, at 13:00 (no delays are allowed)
Upload to Aula Global: notebook and csv
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General Objectives
• The goal is to predict the 2 target variables (Share value and Share volume) for 8 brands (i.e.
8x2 time series) on a weekly basis.
• Work in teams of max 3 students. You need to register your team here: Team Registration Sheet.
• For each time series, you will have 2 regressors: Price and DP, along with the weekly date.
• Your task is to forecast the 16 time series for the next 52 weeks.
• All models should include both statistical and machine learning tools, as well as methods for
generating prediction intervals (only for the notebook).
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Competition Setup and Data
• The training dataset (provided on Aula Global) consists of the historical time series for all brands,
with the predictors (Price and DP) and the targets (Share value and Share volume).
• Your goal is to forecast the next 52 weeks for each brand and each target variable.
• Forecasts should be produced on a weekly basis.
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Performance Evaluation
• Prediction Accuracy (30%):
• Your predictions for the hidden test set (last 52 weeks) will be evaluated using Mean Absolute Error
(MAE).
• Teams will be ranked based on MAE.
• Predictive Methodology (30%):
• Use advanced statistical and machine learning tools, including automatic tools, dynamic regression,
multivariate time-series, and ML
• Justify your model choices and validation procedures.
• Model Explanations (20%):
• Identify key drivers for Share value and Share volume, with emphasis on the effects of Price and DP.
• Originality and Documentation (20%):
• Innovative approaches, feature engineering, and thorough documentation will be rewarded.
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Submission Format for Predictions (CSV)
• The prediction file must include the following columns: Brand, Date Monday, Share value pred,
Share volume pred.
• The file should contain 52 rows for each brand (a total of 8x52 rows).
• Example: Brand,Date Monday,Share value pred,Share volume pred
Brand1,2024-02-04,15.5,12.8
Brand1,2024-02-11,14.7,11.1
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Submission Guidelines
• The training dataset is available on Aula Global.
• Submit the following:
1 Notebook (R Markdown or Jupyter Notebook): Include all code, visualizations, and analysis.
2 CSV File (Predictions): Your forecasts for the test set in the required format, named as
[Link].
3 Compiled Report (HTML or PDF): An exported version of your notebook.
• Name your notebook file as: TeamName LastName1 [Link] or
TeamName LastName1 [Link].
• Cite all external sources or code snippets used in your analysis.
Deadline: March 20th, 2025, at 13:00
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