Chapter 11
The Efficient Market Hypothesis
Multiple Choice Questions
1. If you believe in the ________ form of the EMH, you believe that stock prices reflect all
relevant information including historical stock prices and current public information
about the firm, but not information that is available only to insiders.
A. semistro
ng
B. stron
g
C. wea
k
D. All of the
options
E. None of the
options
2. When Maurice Kendall examined the patterns of stock returns in 1953, he concluded
that the stock market was __________. Now, these random price movements are
believed to be _________.
A. inefficient; the effect of a well-functioning
market
B. efficient; the effect of an inefficient
market
C. inefficient; the effect of an inefficient
market
D. efficient; the effect of a well-functioning
market
E. irrational; even more irrational than
before
11-1
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3. The stock market follows a
A. nonrandom
walk.
B. submartinga
le.
C. predictable pattern that can be
exploited.
D. nonrandom walk and predictable pattern that can be
exploited.
E. submartingale and predictable pattern that can be
exploited.
4. A hybrid strategy is one where the investor
A. uses both fundamental and technical analysis to
select stocks.
B. selects the stocks of companies that specialize in
alternative fuels.
C. selects some actively managed mutual funds on their own and uses an investment
advisor to select other actively managed funds.
D. maintains a passive core and augments the position with an actively
managed portfolio.
5. The difference between a random walk and a submartingale is the expected price
change in a random walk is ______, and the expected price change for a
submartingale is ______.
A. positive;
zero
B. positive;
positive
C. positive;
negative
D. zero;
positive
E. zero;
zero
11-2
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6. Proponents of the EMH typically advocate
A. an active trading
strategy.
B. investing in an index
fund.
C. a passive investment
strategy.
D. an active trading strategy and investing in an
index fund.
E. investing in an index fund and a passive investment
strategy.
7. Proponents of the EMH typically advocate
A. buying individual stocks on margin and trading
frequently.
B. investing in hedge
funds.
C. a passive investment
strategy.
D. buying individual stocks on margin and trading frequently and investing in
hedge funds.
E. investing in hedge funds and a passive investment
strategy.
8. If you believe in the _______ form of the EMH, you believe that stock prices only
reflect all information that can be derived by examining market trading data such as
the history of past stock prices, trading volume or short interest.
A. semistro
ng
B. stron
g
C. wea
k
D. All of the
options
E. None of the
options
11-3
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9. If you believe in the _________ form of the EMH, you believe that stock prices reflect
all available information, including information that is available only to insiders.
A. semistro
ng
B. stron
g
C. wea
k
D. All of the
options
E. None of the
options
10. If you believe in the reversal effect, you should
A. buy bonds in this period if you held stocks in the
last period.
B. buy stocks in this period if you held bonds in the
last period.
C. buy stocks this period that performed poorly last
period.
D. go
short.
E. buy stocks this period that performed poorly last period and
go short.
11. __________ focus more on past price movements of a firm's stock than on the
underlying determinants of future profitability.
A. Credit
analysts
B. Fundamental
analysts
C. Systems
analysts
D. Technical
analysts
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12. _________ above which it is difficult for the market to rise.
A. A book value is a
value
B. A resistance level is a
value
C. A support level is a
value
D. A book value and a resistance level are
values
E. A book value and a support level are
values
13. _________ below which it is difficult for the market to fall.
A. An intrinsic value is a
value
B. A resistance level is a
value
C. A support level is a
value
D. An intrinsic value and a resistance level are
values
E. A resistance level and a support level are
values
14. ___________ the return on a stock beyond what would be predicted from market
movements alone.
A. An irrational
return is
B. An economic
return is
C. An abnormal
return is
D. None of the
options
E. All of the
options
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15. The debate over whether markets are efficient will probably never be resolved
because of
A. the lucky event
issue.
B. the magnitude
issue.
C. the selection bias
issue.
D. All of the
options
E. None of the
options
16. A common strategy for passive management is
A. creating an index
fund.
B. creating a small firm
fund.
C. creating an investment
club.
D. creating an index fund and creating an
investment club.
E. creating a small firm fund and creating an
investment club.
17. Arbel (1985) found that
A. the January effect was highest for neglected
firms.
B. the book-to-market value ratio effect was highest in
January.
C. the liquidity effect was highest for
small firms.
D. the neglected firm effect was independent of the small
firm effect.
E. small firms had higher book-to-market value
ratios.
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18. Researchers have found that most of the small firm effect occurs
A. during the spring
months.
B. during the summer
months.
C. in
December.
D. in
January.
E. randoml
y.
19. Basu (1977, 1983) found that firms with low P/E ratios
A. earned higher average returns than firms with high
P/E ratios.
B. earned the same average returns as firms with high
P/E ratios.
C. earned lower average returns than firms with high
P/E ratios.
D. had higher dividend yields than firms with high
P/E ratios.
20. Basu (1977, 1983) found that firms with high P/E ratios
A. earned higher average returns than firms with low
P/E ratios.
B. earned the same average returns as firms with low
P/E ratios.
C. earned lower average returns than firms with low
P/E ratios.
D. had higher dividend yields than firms with low
P/E ratios.
11-7
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21. Jaffe (1974) found that stock prices _________ after insiders intensively bought
shares.
A. decrease
d
B. did not
change
C. increase
d
D. became extremely
volatile
E. became much less
volatile
22. Jaffe (1974) found that stock prices _________ after insiders intensively sold shares.
A. decrease
d
B. did not
change
C. increase
d
D. became extremely
volatile
E. became much less
volatile
23. Banz (1981) found that, on average, the risk-adjusted returns of small firms
A. were higher than the risk-adjusted returns of
large firms.
B. were the same as the risk-adjusted returns of
large firms.
C. were lower than the risk-adjusted returns of
large firms.
D. were unrelated to the risk-adjusted returns of
large firms.
E. were
negative.
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24. Banz (1981) found that, on average, the risk-adjusted returns of large firms
A. were higher than the risk-adjusted returns of
small firms.
B. were the same as the risk-adjusted returns of
small firms.
C. were lower than the risk-adjusted returns of
small firms.
D. were unrelated to the risk-adjusted returns of
small firms.
E. were
negative.
25. Proponents of the EMH think technical analysts
A. should focus on relative
strength.
B. should focus on resistance
levels.
C. should focus on support
levels.
D. should focus on financial
statements.
E. are wasting their
time.
26. Studies of positive earnings surprises have shown that there is
A. a positive abnormal return on the day positive earnings surprises are
announced.
B. a positive drift in the stock price on the days following the earnings surprise
announcement.
C. a negative drift in the stock price on the days following the earnings surprise
announcement.
D. a positive abnormal return on the day positive earnings surprises are announced
and a positive drift in the stock price on the days following the earnings surprise
announcement.
E. a positive abnormal return on the day positive earnings surprises are announced
and a negative drift in the stock price on the days following the earnings surprise
announcement.
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27. Studies of negative earnings surprises have shown that there is
A. a negative abnormal return on the day that negative earnings surprises are
announced.
B. a positive drift in the stock price on the days following the earnings surprise
announcement.
C. a negative drift in the stock price on the days following the earnings surprise
announcement.
D. a negative abnormal return on the day that negative earnings surprises are
announced and a positive drift in the stock price on the days following the earnings
surprise announcement.
E. a negative abnormal return on the day that negative earnings surprises are
announced and a negative drift in the stock price on the days following the
earnings surprise announcement.
28. Studies of stock price reactions to news are called
A. reaction
studies.
B. event
studies.
C. drift
studies.
D. reaction studies and event
studies.
E. event studies and drift
studies.
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29. On November 22, 2012, the stock price of WalMart was $69.50 and the retailer stock
index was 600.30. On November 25, 2012, the stock price of WalMart was $70.25
and the retailer stock index was 605.20. Consider the ratio of WalMart to the retailer
index on November 22 and November 25. WalMart is _______ the retail industry, and
technical analysts who follow relative strength would advise _______ the stock.
A. outperforming,
buying
B. outperforming,
selling
C. underperforming,
buying
D. underperforming,
selling
E. equally performing, neither buying nor
selling
30. Work by Amihud and Mendelson (1986, 1991)
A. argues that investors will demand a rate of return premium to invest in less
liquid stocks.
B. may help explain the small firm
effect.
C. may be related to the neglected firm
effect.
D. may help explain the small firm effect and may be related to the
neglected firm effect.
E. All of the
options
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31. Fama and French (1992) found that the stocks of firms within the highest decile of
book-to-market ratios had average monthly returns of _______, while the stocks of
firms within the lowest decile of book-to-market ratios had average monthly returns
of ________.
A. greater than 1%; greater
than 1%
B. greater than 1%; less than
1%
C. less than 1%; greater than
1%
D. less than 1%; less than
1%
E. less than 0.5%; greater than
0.5%
32. A market decline of 23% on a day when there is no significant macroeconomic event
______ consistent with the EMH because ________.
A. would be; it was a clear response to
macroeconomic news
B. would be; it was not a clear response to
macroeconomic news
C. would not be; it was a clear response to
macroeconomic news
D. would not be; it was not a clear response to
macroeconomic news
33. In an efficient market,
A. security prices react quickly to new
information.
B. security prices are seldom far above or below their
justified levels.
C. security analysis will not enable investors to realize superior returns
consistently.
D. one cannot make
money.
E. security prices react quickly to new information, security prices are seldom far
above or below their justified levels, and security analysis will not enable investors
to realize superior returns consistently.
11-12
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34. The weak form of the efficient market hypothesis asserts that
A. stock prices do not rapidly adjust to new information contained in past prices
or past data.
B. future changes in stock prices cannot be predicted from
past prices.
C. technicians cannot expect to outperform the
market.
D. stock prices do not rapidly adjust to new information contained in past prices or
past data and future changes in stock prices cannot be predicted from past prices.
E. future changes in stock prices cannot be predicted from past prices and
technicians cannot expect to outperform the market.
35. A support level is the price range at which a technical analyst would expect the
A. supply of a stock to increase
dramatically.
B. supply of a stock to decrease
substantially.
C. demand for a stock to increase
substantially.
D. demand for a stock to decrease
substantially.
E. price of a stock to
fall.
36. A finding that _________ would provide evidence against the semistrong form of the
efficient market theory.
A. low P/E stocks tend to have positive abnormal
returns
B. trend analysis is worthless in determining
stock prices
C. one can consistently outperform the market by adopting the contrarian approach
exemplified by the reversals phenomenon
D. low P/E stocks tend to have positive abnormal returns and trend analysis is
worthless in determining stock prices
E. low P/E stocks tend to have positive abnormal returns and one can consistently
outperform the market by adopting the contrarian approach exemplified by the
reversals phenomenon
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37. The weak form of the efficient market hypothesis contradicts
A. technical analysis, but supports fundamental analysis
as valid.
B. fundamental analysis, but supports technical analysis
as valid.
C. both fundamental analysis and technical
analysis.
D. technical analysis, but is silent on the possibility of successful
fundamental analysis.
38. Two basic assumptions of technical analysis are that security prices adjust
A. rapidly to new information and market prices are determined by the interaction of
supply and demand.
B. rapidly to new information and liquidity is provided by
security dealers.
C. gradually to new information and market prices are determined by the interaction
of supply and demand.
D. gradually to new information and liquidity is provided by
security dealers.
E. rapidly to information and to the actions of
insiders.
39. Cumulative abnormal returns (CAR)
A. are used in event
studies.
B. are better measures of security returns due to firm-specific events than are
abnormal returns (AR).
C. are cumulated over the period prior to the firm-
specific event.
D. are used in event studies and are better measures of security returns due to firm-
specific events than are abnormal returns (AR).
E. are used in event studies and are cumulated over the period prior to the firm-
specific event.
11-14
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40. Studies of mutual fund performance
A. indicate that one should not randomly select a
mutual fund.
B. indicate that historical performance is not necessarily indicative of future
performance.
C. indicate that the professional management of the fund insures above
market returns.
D. indicate that one should not randomly select a mutual fund and indicate that
historical performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.
E. indicate that historical performance is not necessarily indicative of future
performance and indicate that the professional management of the fund insures
above market returns.
41. The likelihood of an investment newsletter's successfully predicting the direction of
the market for three consecutive years by chance should be
A. between 50% and
70%.
B. between 25% and
50%.
C. between 10% and
25%.
D. less than
10%.
E. greater than
70%.
42. In an efficient market the correlation coefficient between stock returns for two
nonoverlapping time periods should be
A. positive and
large.
B. positive and
small.
C. zero
.
D. negative and
small.
E. negative and
large.
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43. The weather report says that a devastating and unexpected freeze is expected to hit
Florida tonight, during the peak of the citrus harvest. In an efficient market one would
expect the price of Florida Orange's stock to
A. drop
immediately.
B. remain
unchanged.
C. increase
immediately.
D. gradually decline for the next several
weeks.
E. gradually increase for the next several
weeks.
44. Matthews Corporation has a beta of 1.2. The annualized market return yesterday was
13%, and the risk-free rate is currently 5%. You observe that Matthews had an
annualized return yesterday of 17%. Assuming that markets are efficient, this
suggests that
A. bad news about Matthews was announced
yesterday.
B. good news about Matthews was announced
yesterday.
C. no news about Matthews was announced
yesterday.
D. interest rates rose
yesterday.
E. interest rates fell
yesterday.
11-16
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45. Nicholas Manufacturing just announced yesterday that its fourth quarter earnings will
be 10% higher than last year's fourth quarter. Nicholas had an abnormal return of -
1.2% yesterday. This suggests that
A. the market is not
efficient.
B. Nicholas' stock will probably rise in value
tomorrow.
C. investors expected the earnings increase to be larger than what was actually
announced.
D. investors expected the earnings increase to be smaller than what was actually
announced.
E. earnings are expected to decrease next
quarter.
46. When Maurice Kendall first examined stock price patterns in 1953, he found that
A. certain patterns tended to repeat within the
business cycle.
B. there were no predictable patterns in stock
prices.
C. stocks whose prices had increased consistently for one week tended to have a net
decrease the following week.
D. stocks whose prices had increased consistently for one week tended to have a net
increase the following week.
E. the direction of change in stock prices was unpredictable, but the amount of
change followed a distinct pattern.
47. If stock prices follow a random walk
A. it implies that investors are
irrational.
B. it means that the market cannot be
efficient.
C. price levels are not
random.
D. price changes are
random.
E. price movements are
predictable.
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48. The main difference between the three forms of market efficiency is that
A. the definition of efficiency
differs.
B. the definition of excess return
differs.
C. the definition of prices
differs.
D. the definition of information
differs.
E. they were discovered by different
people.
49. Chartists practice
A. technical
analysis.
B. fundamental
analysis.
C. regression
analysis.
D. insider
analysis.
E. psychoanalys
is.
11-18
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50. Which of the following are used by fundamental analysts to determine proper stock
prices?
I) Trendlines
II) Earnings
III) Dividend prospects
IV) Expectations of future interest rates
V) Resistance levels
A. I, IV, and
V
B. I, II, and
III
C. II, III, and
IV
D. II, IV, and
V
E. All of the items are used by fundamental
analysts.
51. Which of the following are used by technical analysts to determine proper stock
prices?
I) Trendlines
II) Earnings
III) Dividend prospects
IV) Expectations of future interest rates
V) Resistance levels
A. I and
V
B. I, II, and
III
C. II, III, and
IV
D. II, IV, and
V
E. All of the items are used by fundamental
analysts.
11-19
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52. According to proponents of the efficient market hypothesis, the best strategy for a
small investor with a portfolio worth $40,000 is probably to
A. perform fundamental
analysis.
B. exploit market
anomalies.
C. invest in Treasury
securities.
D. invest in derivative
securities.
E. invest in mutual
funds.
53. Which of the following are investment superstars who have consistently shown
superior performance?
I) Warren Buffet
II) Phoebe Buffet
III) Peter Lynch
IV) Merrill Lynch
V) Jimmy Buffet
A. I, III, and
IV
B. II, III, and
IV
C. I and
III
D. III and
IV
E. I, III, IV, and
V
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54. Google has a beta of 1.0. The annualized market return yesterday was 11%, and the
risk-free rate is currently 5%. You observe that Google had an annualized return
yesterday of 14%. Assuming that markets are efficient, this suggests that
A. bad news about Google was announced
yesterday.
B. good news about Google was announced
yesterday.
C. no news about Google was announced
yesterday.
D. interest rates rose
yesterday.
E. interest rates fell
yesterday.
55. Music Doctors has a beta of 2.25. The annualized market return yesterday was 12%,
and the risk-free rate is currently 4%. You observe that Music Doctors had an
annualized return yesterday of 15%. Assuming that markets are efficient, this
suggests that
A. bad news about Music Doctors was announced
yesterday.
B. good news about Music Doctors was announced
yesterday.
C. no news about Music Doctors was announced
yesterday.
D. interest rates rose
yesterday.
E. interest rates fell
yesterday.
11-21
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56. QQAG has a beta of 1.7. The annualized market return yesterday was 13%, and the
risk-free rate is currently 3%. You observe that QQAG had an annualized return
yesterday of 20%. Assuming that markets are efficient, this suggests that
A. bad news about QQAG was announced
yesterday.
B. good news about QQAG was announced
yesterday.
C. no significant news about QQAG was announced
yesterday.
D. interest rates rose
yesterday.
E. interest rates fell
yesterday.
57. QQAG just announced yesterday that its fourth quarter earnings will be 35% higher
than last year's fourth quarter. You observe that QQAG had an abnormal return of -
1.7% yesterday. This suggests that
A. the market is not
efficient.
B. QQAG stock will probably rise in value
tomorrow.
C. investors expected the earnings increase to be larger than what was actually
announced.
D. investors expected the earnings increase to be smaller than what was actually
announced.
E. earnings are expected to decrease next
quarter.
11-22
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58. LJP Corporation just announced yesterday that it would undertake an international
joint venture. You observe that LJP had an abnormal return of 3% yesterday. This
suggests that
A. the market is not
efficient.
B. LJP stock will probably rise in value again
tomorrow.
C. investors view the international joint venture as
bad news.
D. investors view the international joint venture as
good news.
E. earnings are expected to decrease next
quarter.
59. Music Doctors just announced yesterday that its first quarter sales were 35% higher
than last year's first quarter. You observe that Music Doctors had an abnormal return
of -2% yesterday. This suggests that
A. the market is not
efficient.
B. Music Doctors stock will probably rise in value
tomorrow.
C. investors expected the sales increase to be larger than what was actually
announced.
D. investors expected the sales increase to be smaller than what was actually
announced.
E. earnings are expected to decrease next
quarter.
60. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) just announced yesterday that they would
approve a new cancer-fighting drug from King. You observe that King had an
abnormal return of 0% yesterday. This suggests that
A. the market is not
efficient.
B. King stock will probably rise in value
tomorrow.
C. King stock will probably fall in value
tomorrow.
D. the approval was already anticipated by the
market.
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61. Your professor finds a stock-trading rule that generates excess risk-adjusted returns.
Instead of publishing the results, she keeps the trading rule to herself. This is most
closely associated with
A. regret
avoidance.
B. selection
bias.
C. framin
g.
D. insider
trading.
62. At freshman orientation, 1,500 students are asked to flip a coin 20 times. One
student is crowned the winner (tossed 20 heads). This is most closely associated
with
A. regret
avoidance.
B. selection
bias.
C. overconfiden
ce.
D. the lucky event
issue.
63. Sehun (1986) finds that the practice of monitoring insider trade disclosures, and
trading on that information, would be
A. extremely profitable for long-term
traders.
B. extremely profitable for short-term
traders.
C. marginally profitable for long-term
traders.
D. marginally profitable for short-term
traders.
E. not sufficiently profitable to cover
trading costs.
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64. If you believe in the reversal effect, you should
A. sell bonds in this period if you held stocks in the
last period.
B. sell stocks in this period if you held bonds in the
last period.
C. sell stocks this period that performed well last
period.
D. go
long.
E. sell stocks this period that performed well last period and
go long.
65. Patell and Woflson (1984) report that most of the stock price response to corporate
dividend or earnings announcements occurs within ____________ of the
announcement.
A. 10
minutes
B. 45
minutes
C. 2
hours
D. 4
hours
E. 2 trading
days
66. Del Guerico and Reuter (2013) report that the average underperformance of actively
managed mutual funds is driven largely by
A. sector mutual
funds.
B. index
funds.
C. direct sold
funds.
D. broker sold
funds.
E. bank sold mutual
funds.
11-25
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Short Answer Questions
67. Discuss the various forms of market efficiency. Include in your discussion the
information sets involved in each form and the relationships across information sets
and across forms of market efficiency. Also discuss the implications for the various
forms of market efficiency for the various types of securities' analysts.
68. What is an event study? It is a test of what form of market efficiency? Discuss the
process of conducting an event study, including the best variable(s) to observe as
tests of market efficiency.
69. Discuss the small firm effect, the neglected firm effect, and the January effect, the
tax effect and how the four effects may be related.
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70. Why might the degree of market efficiency differ across various markets? State three
reasons why this might occur, and explain each reason briefly.
71. With regard to market efficiency, what is meant by the term "anomaly"? Give three
examples of market anomalies and explain why each is considered to be an
anomaly.
11-27
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