CHAPTER ONE

1. Introduction to Population Statistics

1.1. Some Demographic Concepts
Demography is the study of human population dynamics. It encompasses the study of:
- the size, structure and distribution of populations;
- How populations change over time due to births, deaths, migration and ageing.
Achille Guillard (1855) defined demography as- the natural and social history of the human
species or the mathematical knowledge of populations, of their general changes, and of their
physical, civil, intellectual and moral conditions. In the Multilingual Demographic Dictionary
(Van de Walle, 1982), demography defined as-the scientific study of the human populations,
primarily with respect to their size, their structure and their development.
Demography may be defined narrowly or broadly as
a. The narrowest sense is that of formal demography which helps to describe and analyses
population growth. Formal demography is concerned with the size, distribution, structure and
changes of populations.
 Size is the number of units or persons in the population.
 Distribution refers to the arrangement of the population in space at a given time.
 Structure is the distribution of the population among its sex and age groupings.
 Change is the growth or decline of the total population or one of its structural units.
The components of change in total population are births, deaths and migrations.
b. A broader sense of demography includes additional characteristics of the units such as ethnic,
social, economic and others.
 Ethnic characteristics include: race, legal nationality, mother tongue;
 Social characteristics include: marital and family status, place of birth, literacy,
educational attainment;
 Economic characteristics include: economic activity, employment status, occupation,
industry, income;

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  Genetic inheritance, intelligence and health might be considered as other
characteristics; but the usual sources of demographic data (e.g., Censuses) seldom
deal with these directly.
c. The widest sense of demography extends to applications of its data and findings in a number
of fields including the study of problems that are related to demographic process such as
 pressure of populations upon resources,
 depopulation,
 family limitation,
 The assimilation of immigrants, urban and rural likelihoods
Growth, decline or maintenance of the same population is all outcomes of the three vital processes which are
births, deaths and migration.

1.2. The Development of Demographic Study

Studying size, growth and characteristics of human population has a long history. The Chinese
philosophers noted that excessive population growth might:
 reduce output per worker;
 depress the living standards of the masses;
 Cause conflict.
In the 18th century the Physiocrats (a group of philosophers) emphasized agriculture and the need
to grow sufficient food for a large population. William Godwin in Great Britain and Marquis de
Condorcet in France asserted late in the 18th century that excessive population would never be a
problem for a nation with sufficient scientific knowledge and equitable social institutions. The
English man Thomas Robert Malthus opposed the positive views of population growth of
Godwin and Condorcet.
Malthus (1798) argued that food shortages would occur because of the difference between
arithmetic growths of food production against geometric growth of human populations. That
means populations tend to grow at a rapid rate than the food supply needed to sustain them.
Malthus was considered as the father of substantive demography. He achieved this position not
because what he said was all new and all true but because he initiated tremendous debate and
controversy over the relationship between food and population. Controversy over population has
tended to revolve around attitudes towards Malthus ever since his time. Optimists, liberals, and

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socialists have generally opposed him and pessimists and conservatives have supported him.

1.3. Types and Sources of Demographic Data

There are two main aspects of the behavior of the populations:

- The composition of the aggregate and

- The changes that occur during some period of observation.

The composition of a population is described by the distribution of people among certain more or
less standard categories. Changes are the results of events, which add or take away members of
the population. For this reason births and deaths are called vital events. Migration, marriages,
divorces and other events are also called vital events though they do not more than transfer
people from one category to another in the same population.

1.3.1. Data Collection Methods and Instruments

Data Collection Methods

The type of demographic information required for any country could be categorized into two
fundamentally different forms. The first type is concerned with the counting of individuals and
the second with a recording of events. Accordingly, the principal demographic data collection
methods could be divided broadly into two categories. These are

a. Enumeration method: counting all the persons present; usually provided by a census.

b. Registration method of vital events: record of vital events, generally events occurring in a calendar year.

The distinction between these two forms of statistics is not really based on the method of getting
facts. It lies in the nature of the facts themselves one is a record of persons and the other is a
record of events.
The enumeration method encompasses censuses and sample surveys, while the registration
method refers mainly to vital statistics registration system and population registers. Data
collection method that yields a count of individuals is census, while the method that yields record
of events is vita/civil (statistics) registration system. Therefore, census produces the stock of a
population of a given country or area in a static way (showing the size and composition at a
given point in time). On the other hand, vital statistics registration system (VSRS) provides a
flow of a record of vital events (that determine the process of change) in a dynamic way.

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Therefore, censuses, VSRS, sample surveys and population registers are the major sources of
demographic data. They can be put categorically as follows
 Enumeration method
 Censuses (Population and Housing)
 Sample Surveys
 Registration method
 Vital Statistics Registration System
 Population Registers
The economically developed nations are securing the stock and flow data through population
censuses and vital statistics registration system, respectively, while the developing (3rd world)
nations for the stock as well as the flow data nearly all use censuses and sample survey methods.

Data collection instruments

The most commonly used data collection instruments are questionnaires in the case of censuses
and surveys, registration forms in vital statistics registration system.

 A Questionnaire is a form that is designed to collect information in such a way that a

written series questions designed to elicit information from an informant on a given topic
administered by an enumerator or interviewer or could be self-administered.

 Registration Forms are designed to register vital events within short time period of the
occurrence of an event. Even though, the practice in different countries varies however, it
is customary to prepare registration records, certificates are required to notify and give
legal evidence to the informant about the occurrence of an event. Vital statistics
information is compiled either using the registration forms or through a separate vital
statistics report format.

1.3.2. Principal sources of demographic data

The major demographic data sources are censuses, sample surveys and vital statistics registration
systems. These data sources have distinct purposes as well as common or complementary use
providing the broad-based population data need. The instruments used for the data collection
exercise, specifically between those under the enumeration method and the registration method
vary. For example, censuses and sample surveys use questionnaires to fill-in responses of

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 individual inquires and usually done through canvassing the study area, while vital statistics
registration system is an event recording exercise with a standard recording format to be filled
following a passive and/or active data collection mode. Each of the demographic data collection
methods is dealt below.
a. Population Census
A population census is the largest, most extensive and costly government exercise of a country. Census
could be seen as an inventory exercise of governments, about the individual entities under their
administration. It is designed to give mainly the stock of a country‟s population at a given point in time.
A population census is defined as the total process of collecting, compiling and publishing data on the
demographic, social and economic situation of all persons in a specified territory at a particular time.
A modern census has four essential features:
A modern census has four essential features:
1. Individual enumeration - the study units are individuals and the census counts each and
every individual.
2. Universality within a precisely defined territory - all individuals are required to be
included in the census. Here a distinction should be made between two types of
enumeration methods in order to maintain universality. *The de-facto count refers to the
people actually present at the census night, while the de-jure count refers to the people
usually resident in the enumeration area.

3. Simultaneity - refers to the timing of the enumeration, at a particular short time (census
moment), which in practice is difficult to attain.

4. Defined periodicity - censuses should be taken at regular intervals so that comparable

information is made available in a fixed sequence. It is recommended that a national
census be taken at least every 10 years.
b. Vital Statistics Registration System (VSRS)
It is a continuous, permanent and compulsory data collection method that records the occurrence
of the events, principally of birth, death, marriage and divorce and also annulment, separation,
adoptions, legitimization and recognition primarily to provide legal evidence about the civil
status of individuals and secondary for the compilation and production of vital statistics data.
Even though, the vital events that occur in individual‟s life are mainly in number as observed
above, however, the major ones and dominantly exercised in most countries registration system
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 are four. The compilation of the individual records for statistical purpose has a long history,
which is known as VSRS. Therefore, VSRS has been considered and serving as one major
demographic data source.

Major characteristic features of vital statistics registration

1. Data Collection Mechanism

Currently in the developing countries, the two modes (active and passive) of vital event
recording schemes are being practiced; however the conventional method for the
recording of vital events is the passive mode of registration.
 Passive mode - the registrars wait in their office for the individuals to come and register
a vital event.
 Active mode - which is used to supplement the passive mode in order to capture the
unreported vital events by making house to house visit by the registrars.
Frequency and characteristics of data collection
 Continuous, permanent and compulsory
2. Types of data items collected
 Vital events
3. Data collection instruments
 Standard vital record forms
4. Current status
 In almost all the developed countries VSRS exists and it is the single data source for
birth, death, marriage and divorce statistics.
 Nearly in all the developing countries the system could be said non-existent,
andin the few countries where the system exists it is incomplete.
5. Purpose of the data collection exercise
 For legal and administrative purpose
 For the compilation of vital statistics data.
6. Major use in demographic work
 Provide vital statistics data that helps to keep the dynamism of census data and provide
local level population information on a continuous and permanent basis.
7. Types of Demographic data output

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  Flow of vital statistics information.
c. Sample surveys
Sample survey uses census type data collection mechanisms and recent developments as
compared to census and vital statistics registration system. The basic difference between sample
survey and census is that surveys involve only a sample of a population rather than the whole.
The advantage of sampling compared to censuses is that
 They reduce efforts(collection and processing)
 Save cost and energy(less man power)
 Save time to accommodate more detailed information
And hence the results would be released in shorter period compared to censuses. On the other
hand, the major disadvantage of the survey is that they do not provide data for lower
administrative areas and also introduce sampling errors, which would actually be minimized by
increasing the sample size.
Ways of inquiry in surveys
1. Retrospective (surveys) – base their inquiry by asking about events that happened in the
past.
2. Prospective surveys- base their inquiry by following the events in their future course
(which is difficult and not common).
Major types of demographic sample surveys
 Single round surveys (one shot surveys

 Multi-round surveys (conducting repeatedly in round or periodically)

 Dual-record methods (use two types of independent data collection methods)

1.4. Demographic Data Items

Demographic data items are the variables that are identified to be investigated. The data items
that would be collected in censuses, surveys and registration systems vary depending on the
nature of the methods and the issue being measured. Censuses usually collect major data items
that give the size and characteristics of a population. Hence, the data items that would be
included in a census questionnaire could not be detailed. Accordingly, there are traditionally as
well as conventionally recommended items that would be included in the census. They are listed
below.

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 Geographic characteristics:
 Geographic identification of enumeration area
 Place where present at the time of census
 Place of usual residence
 Place of birth
 Duration of residence
 Place of previous residence
 Place of work
Personal characteristics
 Sex
 Age
 Relation to head of household
 Relation to head of family
 Marital status
 Age at marriage
 Marriage order
 Children ever born
 Children dead
 Citizenship
 Literacy
 School attendance
 Educational qualification
 Highest grade completed
 National and/or ethnic group
 Language
 Religion
 Disability conditions
Economic characteristics
 Types of activity
 Occupational

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  Industry
 Employment status
 Main source of livelihood

It is customary to conduct population censuses with housing censuses, and named as „Population
and Housing Census‟. Hence, in addition to the personal and household information, a section on
housing conditions and facilities are included in census questionnaires. Following the above
trend, the three Ethiopian Population and Housing Censuses (1984, 1994 and 2007) were
conducted by combining the population and housing censuses in one.

1.5. Uses and purposes of demographic data.

Demographic data refers to statistical information about populations, including attributes such as
Geographic, personal and economic Characteristics (i.e age, gender, education, employment,
income, race, ethnicity, marital status, and more). This type of data is collected through various
means like censuses, surveys, and administrative records. Understanding demographic data is
essential for a wide range of disciplines including economics, public health, political science,
sociology, and business. So, it has its own uses and purposes

A. uses of demographic data

1. Government Policy and Planning

o Public Services Allocation: Demographic data helps governments determine how to allocate
resources and services like education, healthcare, and transportation. For instance, knowing the
age distribution in a population helps governments plan for schools or elderly care.
o Urban and Regional Planning: Planners use demographic data to design cities, transportation
systems, and housing projects that cater to current and projected populations.
2. Health and Public Health Initiatives
o Epidemiology and Disease Control: Understanding demographic factors such as age, gender,
and socioeconomic status is essential for public health officials to identify risk factors for diseases
and implement prevention strategies.
o Health Policy and Service Delivery: Demographic data informs the development of healthcare
services to meet the needs of different groups, such as maternal health services for women or
geriatric services for the elderly.
3. Economic Planning and Labor Market Analysis
o Workforce Analysis: Demographic data helps understand workforce trends, including
unemployment rates, job distribution, and skill gaps. Policymakers and businesses can use this
data for labor force planning and economic development.

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 o Income Distribution and Inequality: Economists use demographic data to study income
distribution and disparities, providing a basis for policies aimed at reducing poverty and economic
inequality.
4. Education
o School Enrollment Forecasting: Education authorities use demographic data to forecast future
school enrollment, which helps with the planning of school infrastructure, teacher recruitment,
and resource allocation.
o Educational Attainment Studies: Researchers can use demographic data to analyze education
levels within populations and to address gaps in access and quality.
5. Marketing and Business Development
o Target Audience Identification: Businesses use demographic data to understand their target
market's characteristics, such as age, income level, and preferences, enabling better product design
and marketing strategies.
o Market Demand Forecasting: Companies analyze demographic trends to predict consumer
demand for products and services, assisting in strategic business decisions.
6. Social Research and Policy Development
o Understanding Social Dynamics: Demographic data helps sociologists and policymakers
understand family structures, migration patterns, and social mobility, enabling the formulation of
social policies that address community needs.
o Equity and Inclusion Policies: Demographic data on race, ethnicity, and gender is used to assess
and address disparities in employment, education, and healthcare, guiding policies that promote
equality and inclusivity.
7. Environmental Planning and Sustainability
o Resource Allocation: Demographic trends such as population growth and migration are crucial
for environmental planning, especially in managing natural resources like water, land, and energy.
o Climate Change Impact Assessment: Planners use demographic data to identify populations that
are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and develop targeted adaptation and
mitigation strategies.
8. Political Representation and Electoral Processes
o Redistricting and Representation: Demographic data is used to ensure fair political
representation by guiding the redrawing of electoral districts to reflect population changes.
o Voter Behavior Analysis: Political parties and candidates analyze demographic data to
understand voter preferences and to develop targeted campaign strategies.
9. International Development and Aid Allocation
o Population Growth Projections: International organizations use demographic data to project
population growth, which is essential for planning aid programs in sectors such as food security,
education, and health.
o Humanitarian Aid: In times of crisis, demographic data helps organizations target aid delivery to
vulnerable groups such as refugees, the elderly, or children.

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B purposes of Demographic Data.
and Development
 Resource Planning: Demographic data aids in the prediction of future demands for resources like food,
water, housing, and energy.
 Infrastructure Development: Population density and growth rates guide infrastructure projects such as
roads, schools, and hospitals.
and Evaluation
 Policy Effectiveness: Governments and organizations use demographic data to monitor the outcomes of
policies and programs, making adjustments based on the changing needs of the population.
 Social Progress: Demographic indicators such as literacy rates, life expectancy, and infant mortality rates
are used to measure the progress of societies in terms of health, education, and overall development.
Management and Emergency Planning
 Disaster Preparedness: Demographic data helps in assessing the vulnerability of different population
groups to natural disasters, ensuring more effective emergency planning and disaster relief efforts.
 Pandemic Response: During health emergencies, demographic data is vital for identifying high-risk
groups and allocating resources like vaccines and healthcare personnel.
and National Security
 Migration Trends: Understanding demographic trends in migration helps governments address issues
related to national security, such as managing border control, asylum seekers, and population integration.
 Population Aging: Countries use demographic data to prepare for the security and economic challenges
posed by aging populations, including pension system strain and healthcare needs.

1.6. Basic Demographic Measures

Statistical data are the raw materials of demography. They show how many people or events
were found at a certain date of period. This is an actual or absolute number. More often we wish
to measure these facts (how many people or events were found) in relation to another number.
To do this we make use of ratios and/or rates.

A. Ratio and Rate

The most basic measurement tools used to manipulate demographic data are rates, ratios,
proportions and percentages. Demographic analysis makes abundant use of rates and ratios.
Rates and ratios provide measurements of demography by which the behavior of one population

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 or sector of population can be compared with that of another.

A ratio (R) is a single number that expresses the relative size of two numbers. The result of
dividing a number „x‟ by another number „y‟ is the ratio of x to y. That is

For example,

Dividing the number of males by the number of females gives a comparison of female and male population
in a particular place.

Proportions are special types of ratio in which the denominator includes the numerator.

That is, it has the form, , For example, the proportion of the population that is female is the

number of females divided by the total number of males and females together. A proportion can only
range from 0 to 1.

Percentages are a special type of proportion, one in which the ratio is multiplied by a constant, 100, so
that the ratio is expressed per 100.

Generally, ratios, proportions and percentages are useful for analyzing the composition of a set of
events or of a population. Ratios in contrast, are used to study the dynamics of change. A rate refers to
the occurrence of events over a given interval in time.

Vital events introduce some changes into the population. Such change must be measured be relation to
some time period. The frequency of vital events in a population is measured by a vital statistics rate,
which is often called a „vital rate‟. The most common vital rates are birth and death rates. The term rate
must appropriately apply to the number of demographic events in a given period of time divided by the
population at risk during that period. We can define rate of incidence in general terms as follows:

The numerator of a rate is number of events, such as, births or death, occurring during a specified period
of time. The denominator is the number of „person-year of exposure to risk‟ experienced by the
population during the period under consideration. Specifying the number of persons “exposed to risk”
in the denominator is important. The concept of “person-years” is the ideal way to specify the
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population exposed to the risk of event.
Person-years- is the sum, expressed in years, of the time spent in a given category by all the individuals
comprising the population. For example
Entry Date Exit Date Duration (days) Person-years
1.1.85 1.1.86 365 1.000
1.1.85 19.8.85 230 0.630
5.3.85 1.1.86 302 0.827
3.5.85 15.11.86 196 0.537
Total 2.994
Source: The dictionary of demography

In demography rates are most frequently calculated for periods of one year. This means that the number of
person-years of exposure to risk can usually be approximated by the population at mid-year. To understand this,
consider the calculation of an annual death rate. Each person surviving for the whole year will contribute one
year to the total number of years of exposure to the risk of death, while those dying during the year will
contribute only a fraction of a year. This fraction will be, on average, half a year if people die evenly throughout
the year. The total number of years of exposure to risk arrived at by adding these fractions to the total
contributed by those who survived is the same as taking the average population total during the year and letting
each person in that average contribute a whole year of exposure. And since the average population can normally
be approximated very closely by the population total at mid-year, the mid-year population can, under most
circumstance, be used for calculating annual rates (Newll, 1988).

B. The Basic Demographic Equation

The most basic method of demography is the decomposition of population change into its components.
The basic demographic equation expresses one of the most fundamental relationships in formal
demography. It can be written as:

Pt +1 = Pt + B - D + IN - OUT

Where Pt+1- stand for the population size at time t+1

Pt. - stands for the population size at time t

B- Stands for the number of births between time t and t+1

D- stands for the number of deaths between time t and t+1

IN- stands for the number of in-migrants between time t and t+1

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 OUT- stands for the number of out-migrants between time t and t+1

In words, it means the population of an area at time t+1 is just the population at time t plus
the number of births between t and t+1, the number of deaths, plus the number of migrants
entering the area, less the number of leaving the area. The deference between the number of
births and deaths gives the „natural increase‟, while the difference between the numbers of
migrants in and out gives the „net migration‟. Thus the equation can be written as:

Population change = Natural increase + Net migration

In the above formula it is expected that the sum of the balance (population changes) and the population
at the beginning of the year would give as the population size at the end of the year. However this
relationship does not hold in most cases. The extent in which the figures differ is known as the „Error of
Closure‟. Its magnitude is a sensitive indicator of the consistency of the demographic data quality of
data collection.

The equation can also be expressed in terms of rates by dividing each element by the mid- year
population (MYP). Then the rate of population change is just:

The difference between the birth and death rate is the rate of natural increase, and the difference
between the In and Out migration rate is the Net Migration rate. So the equation again can also be
written as
Growth Rate = Rate of Natural increase + Net Migration rate

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