PROBABILITY

Likelihood or chance a particular event will occur

 THINKING CHALLENGE
 What’s the probability
of getting a head on
the toss of a single fair
coin? Use a scale from
0 (no way) to 1 (sure
thing).
 So toss a coin twice.
Do it! Did you get one
head & one tail?
What’s it all mean?
 EXPERIMENTS & SAMPLE
SPACES
1. Experiment
• Process of observation that leads to a single
outcome that cannot be predicted with
certainty
2. Outcomes Sample Space
• Result of a trial or an Depends on
experiment Experimenter!

3. Sample space (S)

• Collection of all possible outcomes
 SAMPLE SPACE EXAMPLES

Experiment Sample Space

 Toss a Coin {H, T}
 Toss 2 Coins {HH, HT, TH, TT}
 Toss a dice {1,2,3,4,5,6}
 Select 1 Card, {Red, Black}
 Play a Football Game {Win, Lose, Tie}
 Inspect a Part, Note Quality {Defective, Good}
 Observe Gender {Male, Female}
 EVENTS
1. Specific collection of sample points
2. Simple Event
Contains only one sample point
3. Compound Event
Contains two or more sample points

Example:

Experiment for tossing a dice: Let A be the event of

getting an odd number; A = {1,3,5)
EQUALLY LIKELY OUTCOME :

The outcomes are said to be equally likely when
one does not occur more than the others or each
outcomes for an experiment has an equal
probability of occurrence.

 Example:
For rolling a dice:
the chances of getting score 1,2,3,4,5 or 6 are all
the same.
 VENN DIAGRAM
Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Note Faces.

Sample Space S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

Compound
Event: At
least one
TH Tail
Outcome HH HT

TT
S
 EVENT EXAMPLES
Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Note Faces.

Sample Space: HH, HT, TH, TT

Event Outcomes in Event

1 Head & 1 Tail HT, TH
 Head on 1st Coin HH, HT
 At Least 1 Head HH, HT, TH
 Heads on Both HH
 WHAT IS PROBABILITY?
1. Numerical measure of the
likelihood that event will 1 Certain

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc

cccur
 P(Event)

 P(A)
0.5 Occur or
 Prob(A) not occur

2. Lies between 0 & 1

3. Sum of sample points is 1
0 Impossible
 PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
If S is the sample space of an experiment
and A is an event which is a subset of S,

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc

then the probability of A is

P(A) = number of outcomes in A n(A)

number of outcomes in S n(S) © 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

P(A) = number of successful outcomes

total number of all possible outcomes
 PROBABILITY RULES
FOR SAMPLE SPACE


MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE


EXAMPLE

 A number from 1 to 11 is chosen at random.

What is the probability of choosing an even
number?

 Solution:
sample space: S = { 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11}
Even number, A = {2,4,6,8,10)

n( A) 5
P(even) = 
n( S ) 11
EXAMPLE

EXAMPLE

EXAMPLE

EXAMPLE


A fair coin is tossed three times. List all the eight

outcomes in the sample space. Find the probability
of

a. Getting at least one tail

b. Getting at most one head.
SOLUTION:
 HHH , HHT , HTH , HTT , 
S  
THH , THT , TTH , TTT 
7 1
(a) (b)
8 2
PRACTICE 1.1

 The Additive Rule and
Mutually Exclusive Events
 COMPOUND EVENTS

Compound events:
Composition of two or more other events.
Can be formed in two different ways.
 UNIONS & INTERSECTIONS
1. Union
 Outcomes in either events A or B or both
 ‘OR’ statement
 Denoted by  symbol (i.e., A  B)
2. Intersection
 Outcomes in both events A and B
 ‘AND’ statement
 Denoted by  symbol (i.e., A  B)
EVENT RELATIONS
The beauty of using events, rather than simple
events, is that we can combine events to make
other events using logical operations: and, or and
not.
The union of two events, A and B, is the event
that either A or B or both occur when the
experiment is performed. We write
A B
S

A B
EVENT RELATIONS
The intersection of two events, A
and B, is the event that both A and B
occur when the experiment is
performed. We write A B.
S

A B

• If two events A and B are mutually

exclusive, then P(A B) = 0.
EVENT RELATIONS
The complement of an event A
consists of all outcomes of the
experiment that do not result in event
A. We write AC.
S
AC

A
 EVENT UNION AND INTERSECT:
VENN DIAGRAM

Experiment: Toss 1 dice. Event A : {even number}, Event B :

{divided by 3}

Even number Event B:

Sample 3,6
Space:
{1,2,3,4,5,6}
S
©
Event A: 2011
A  B = 2,3,4,6 Pea
rson
A  B: 6 27 Edu
cati
on,
Inc
 CALCULATING PROBABILITIES
FOR UNIONS AND
COMPLEMENTS
 There are special rules that will allow you
to calculate probabilities for composite
events.
 The Additive Rule for Unions:
 For any two events, A and B, the probability of their
union, P(A B), is

P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)
A B
EXAMPLE: ADDITIVE RULE
Example: Suppose that there were 120
students in the classroom, and that
they could be classified as follows:
A: brown hair Brown Not Brown
P(A) = 50/120 Male 20 40
B: female Female 30 30
P(B) = 60/120
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)
= 50/120 + 60/120 - 30/120
= 80/120 = 2/3 Check: P(AB)
= (20 + 30 +30)/120
EXAMPLE: TWO DICE

A: red die show 1

B: green die show 1

P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)

= 6/36 + 6/36 – 1/36
= 11/36
EXERCISE
The following table shows the number of car
owners according to the car owners’ gender
and the colour of their cars.
Gender Colour of the cars
Bright (B) Dull (D)
Male (M) 18 32
Female (F) 23 17

Find the probability;

a) A car chosen at random is bright in colour.
b) A car chosen at random is bright in colour or the
owner is a male.
SOLUTION

(a)P(B) = 18/90 + 23/90

= 41/90

(b)P(BM) = P(B) + P(M) – P(BM)

= 41/90 + 50/90 - 18/90
= 73/90
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
Mutually Exclusive Events
• Events do not occur
simultaneously
• A  B does not contain any sample points
• A  B and P (A  B)0.
• For mutually exclusive events:
P(A OR B) = P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)
S

A B
 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
EXAMPLE
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind & Suit.

Sample
 Outcomes
in Event
Space: Heart:


2, 2, 2, 3, 4
2, ..., A , ..., A
S
Event Spade: Events  and are Mutually
2, 3, 4, ..., A Exclusive
A SPECIAL CASE
When two events A and B are
mutually exclusive, P(AB) = 0
and P(AB) = P(A) + P(B).
Brown Not Brown
A: male with brown hair Male 20 40
P(A) = 20/120
B: female with brown hair Female 30 30
P(B) = 30/120
A and B are mutually P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)
= 20/120 + 30/120
exclusive, so that
= 50/120
EXAMPLE: TWO DICE

A: dice add to 3
B: dice add to 6

A and B are mutually P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)

= 2/36 + 5/36
exclusive, so that
= 7/36
EXAMPLE

EXAMPLE

EXAMPLE OF MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
 A fridge contains orange juice, apple juice and grape
juice. A cool drink is chosen at random from the
fridge. Event A: the cool drink is orange juice. Event
B: the cooldrink is apple juice.
 A packet of cupcakes contains chocolate cupcakes,
vanilla cupcakes and red velvet cupcakes. A cupcake
is chosen at random from the packet. Event A: the
cupcake is red velvet. Event B: the cupcake is
vanilla.
 A card is chosen at random from a deck of cards.
Event A: the card is a red card. Event B: the card is a
picture card.
 A cricket team plays a game. Event A: they win the
game. Event B: they lose the game.
DE MORGAN RULES
1. The complement of the union of two sets is
equal to the intersection of the complements
of each set
 A  B 
)  A  B
DE MORGAN RULES
2. The complement of intersection of two sets
is equal to the union of the complements of
each set
P  A  B )  P  A  B )
DE MORGAN RULES
3.
P  A  B )  P  A  B )  P  B )
 P  A)  P  A  B )
EXAMPLE
1 5
Given A and B are 2 events where P  A)  , P  B ) = and
3 9
1
P  A  B )  . Find
6
a) P  A  B)  b ) P  A  B)
 Solution:

 a ) P  A  B )  P  A)  P  B )  P  A  B )
1 5 1 13
   
3 9 6 18
 b ) P  A  B )  P  A  B )
13 5
 1 
18 18
PRACTICE 1.5
1. On festival day, the probability of a person having a
car accident is 0.08. The probability of a person
driving while used handphone is 0.22 and
probability of a person having a car accident while
used handphone is 0.14. What is the probability of a
person driving while used handphone or having a
car accident?
Ans: 0.16

2. The probability of a university student owning a

vehicle is 0.7, of owning a handphone is 0.81 and
owning both is 0.56. if a student is chosen at
random, what is the probability that the student
owns a handphone or a vehicle?
Ans: 0.95
ANSWER
 1. P(C )  0.08
P( H )  0.22
P(C  H )  0.14
P( H  C )  P( H )  P(C )  P  H  C )
 0.08  0.22  0.14  0.16

 2. P(V )  0.7
P( H )  0.81
P(V  H )  0.56
P( H  V )  P( H )  P(V )  P  H  V )
 0.81  0.7  0.56  0.95
 What are Tree Diagrams
• A way of showing the possibilities of two or
more events
• Simple diagram we use to calculate the
probabilities of two or more events

H
0.5
probability
outcome

0.5
T
For example – a fair coin is spun twice

1st 2nd
H HH

H
T HT Possible
Outcomes
H TH
T

T TT
How to calculate the overall probabilities?

1st 2nd
H HH 0.5  0.5  0.25
0.5

H
0.5 0.5
T HT 0.5  0.5  0.25

0.5 H TH 0.5  0.5  0.25

0.5
T

0.5
T TT 0.5  0.5  0.25

0.25  0.25  0.25  0.25  1.00

EXAMPLE
 In a bag there are 10 balls. There are 4 red balls
and the remaining balls are green. A ball is
removed at random and the colour noted. The
ball is replaced. A second ball is removed at
random and the colour is noted.

 Complete the tree diagram.

 Work out the probability that there will be one
ball of each colour.
 SOLUTION

1st 2nd 4 4 4
R RR    0.16
4/10 10 10 25

R 4 6 6
4/10 6/10    0.24
G RG 10 10 25
4 6 6
6/10
4/10 R GR    0.24
G 10 10 25

6/10 4 4 4
G GG    0.16
10 10 25

0.24  0.24  0.48

EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS
 When two or more events form the sample space
collectively than it is known as exhaustive events.
For example:
1. In the experiment of tossing a coin:
Event A: the event of getting a HEAD
 Event B: the event of getting a TAIL

 The two events A and B are exhaustive events

because when we conduct the experiment, at least
one of these will occur.
 If we consider only Event A, it is not exhaustive
because it does not cover all the possible choice
which is getting a TAIL.
EXAMPLE
 Exhaustive & Mutually exclusive
M: getting an even number { 2,4,6 }
N: getting an odd number {1,3,5 }

 The two events M and N are mutually exclusive (not

occur together ) and exhaustive (cover all the possible
outcomes)

 Exhaustive but NOT mutually exclusive

 G: getting a prime number {2,3,5}
H:getting number 1
I; getting an even number {2,4,6}

 The three events G, H and I are NOT mutually

exclusive (G and I occur together ) but exhaustive
(cover all the possible outcomes)
 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
Complement of Event A
 The event that A does not occur

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 All events not in A

 Denote complement of A by A
C

AC
A

S
 RULE OF COMPLEMENTS
The sum of the probabilities of complementary events
equals 1:

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc

P(A) + P(AC) = 1

AC
A

S
EXAMPLE
Select a student at random
from the classroom. Define:
A: male Brown Not Brown
P(A) = 60/120 Male 20 40
B: female Female 30 30
P(B) = ?

A and B are P(B) = 1- P(A)

complementary, so = 1- 60/120 = 60/120
that
The Multiplicative Rule

© 2011 Pearson Education, Inc

and Independent Events
 CALCULATING PROBABILITIES
FOR INTERSECTIONS
In the previous example, we found P(A  B)
directly from the table. Sometimes this is
impractical or impossible. The rule for
calculating P(A  B) depends on the idea of
independent and dependent events.

Two events, A and B, are said to be

independent if the occurrence or
nonoccurrence of one of the events
does not change the probability of the
occurrence of the other event.
 MULTIPLICATIVE RULE

1. Used to get compound probabilities for

intersection of events
2. Independent Events
Event occurrence does not affect probability of
another event
3. Dependent Events
Event occurrence does affect probability of another
event
 STATISTICAL INDEPENDENCE
1. For Dependent Events:
P(A and B) = P(A  B)
= P(A)  P(B|A)
= P(B)  P(A|B)
1. For Independent Events:
P(A and B) = P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B)
Tests for independence
P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B)

P( A  B) P( A)  P( B)
P( A | B)    P( A)
P( B) P( B)
P( B  A) P( B)  P( A)
P( B | A)    P( B)
P( A) P( A)
 MULTIPLICATIVE RULE EXAMPLE
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind & Color.
Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52

P(Ace  Black) = P(Ace)∙P(Black | Ace)

 4  2  2
    
 52  4  52
EXAMPLE

Solution:
i. P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)
 0.5  0.4  0.2
 0.7 P( A  B) 0.2
ii. P( A | B)    0.5
P( B) 0.4
P( A ' B ')  P( A  B) ' P( A | B )  P ( A)
 1  P( A  B)
 1  0.7  0.3 therefore A and B are independent
EXAMPLE
 A jar contains 3 red, 5 green, 2 blue and 6 yellow
marbles. A marble is chosen at random from the
jar. After replacing it, a second marble is chosen.
What is the probability of choosing a green and a
yellow marble?

 P(green) = 5
16
P(yellow) = 6
16
P(green and
yellow) = P(green) · P(yellow) = 5 · 6
16 16
= 30/256
= 15/128
EXAMPLE


EXAMPLE

PRACTICE 1.6
1. 18% of all students stayed in KFT College play football
and basketball and 32% of all students can only play
football. What is the probability that a student plays
basketball given that the student plays football?
2. In a certain class, 80% of the students passed
mathematics, 66% passed Physics and 52% passed both
mathematics and Physics. A student is selected at
random
a) If the student passed Physics, what is the probability that the
student passed Mathematics?
b) If the student passed Mathematics, what is the probability that
the student passed Physics?
c) What is the probability the student passed Mathematics or
Physics?
d) What is the probability that the student passed neither
Mathematics nor Physics?
THE MULTIPLICATIVE RULE
FOR INTERSECTIONS
 For any two events, A and B, the probability that both A
and B occur is

P(A B) = P(A) P(B given that A occurred)

= P(A)P(B|A)

• If the events A and B are independent, then

the probability that both A and B occur is
P(A B) = P(A) P(B)
TREE DIAGRAM
Is very useful to illustrate the formula for multiplicative rule

FIRST SECOND OUTCOMES

EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT
EXAMPLE 1

 EXAMPLE 2
In a certain population, 10% of the people can be
classified as being high risk for a heart attack. Three
people are randomly selected from this population.
What is the probability that exactly one of the three are
high risk?
Define H: high risk N: not high risk
P(exactly one high risk) = P(HNN) + P(NHN) + P(NNH)
= P(H)P(N)P(N) + P(N)P(H)P(N) + P(N)P(N)P(H)
= (0.1)(0.9)(0.9) + (0.9)(0.1)(0.9) + (0.9)(0.9)(0.1)=
3(0.1)(0.9)2 = 0.243
TREE DIAGRAM
 EXAMPLE 3
Suppose we have additional information in the
previous example. We know that only 49% of the
population are female. Also, of the female patients, 8%
are high risk. A single person is selected at random. What
is the probability that it is a high risk female?
Define H: high risk F: female
From the example, P(F) = 0.49 and
P(H|F) = 0.08. Use the Multiplicative Rule:
P(high risk female) = P(HF)
= P(F)P(H|F) =0.49(0.08) = 0.0392
EXAMPLE 4
 Family X has 2 boys and 1 girl. Family Y has three
boys and 2 girls. Family Z has one boy and 2 girls.
One child is selected at random from each family.
Find the probability of selecting

i. Three girls
ii. Three boys
iii. 2 girls & 1 boy
PRACTICE 1.7
1. Bag A contains 20 chocolates, of which 5 are
M&M and 15 are Beryls’s. Bag B contains 12
chocolates, of which 8 are M&M and 4 are
Beryl’s. A chocolate is drawn at random from
each bag.
a) Draw probability tree diagram to show all the
outcomes of the experiments
b) Find the probability that:
i) both are M&M
ii) both are Beryl’s
iii) one M&M and one Beryl’s
iv) at least one M&M
PRACTICE 1.7
2. Ahmad spins 2 spinner; one of which is labeled
A, B and C and the other is labeled X,Y and Z.

a) What is the probability that the spinner stops at

C and X?
b) Find the probability that the spinners do not
stop at C and X.
c) What is the probability that the first spinner
does not stop at A?
3. Donnie has a bag with seven blue sweets and 3
red sweets in it. He picks up a sweet at random
from the bag, but does not replaces it and then
picks again at random. Draw a tree diagram to
represent this situation and use it to calculate the
probabilities that he picks
a) 2 red sweets

b) At least one blue sweet

c) One sweet of each color

d) No red sweets