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ARIMA Model Summary and Analysis

The document presents summaries of various ARIMA models applied to the TTL.Hrs dataset, detailing coefficients, error measures, and information criteria for each model configuration. Key metrics include AIC, BIC, RMSE, and results from the Ljung-Box test for residuals. Multiple models are evaluated, indicating varying levels of fit and performance based on the specified parameters.

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Duc Kien Dinh
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
11 views21 pages

ARIMA Model Summary and Analysis

The document presents summaries of various ARIMA models applied to the TTL.Hrs dataset, detailing coefficients, error measures, and information criteria for each model configuration. Key metrics include AIC, BIC, RMSE, and results from the Ljung-Box test for residuals. Multiple models are evaluated, indicating varying levels of fit and performance based on the specified parameters.

Uploaded by

Duc Kien Dinh
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

XY

Summary of ARIMA Model ARIMNA

Method: ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,0,0)[12]

Call:
[Link]([Link])

Coefficients:

intercept
Value 155.745
Std Err 5.056151

sigma^2 estimated as 793.38351: log likelihood = -142.20423

Information Criteria:

AIC AICc BIC


288.4085 288.8529 291.2109

In-sample error measures:

ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1


0 27.6936345 18.8973333 -5.346617 16.2516849 0.6107406 -0.1087007

Ljung-Box test of the model residuals:


Chi-squared = 16.0841, df = 15, p-value = 0.376481

Plots
AB

Summary of ARIMA Model ARIMNA

Method: ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,0,0)[12]

Call:
[Link]([Link])

Coefficients:

ar1 intercept
Value 0.248697 168.476924
Std Err 0.076885 7.488121

sigma^2 estimated as 5180.52506: log likelihood = -915.96403

Information Criteria:

AIC AICc BIC


1837.9281 1838.0809 1847.1723

In-sample error measures:

ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1


0.2239048 71.5274123 56.345201 -64.3214395 87.2470397 0.7044196 0.0067883

Ljung-Box test of the model residuals:


Chi-squared = 26.6645, df = 23, p-value = 0.270511

Plots
CD

Summary of ARIMA Model ARIMNA

Method: ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,0,0)[12]

Call:
[Link]([Link])

Coefficients:

intercept
Value 159.246667
Std Err 6.642087

sigma^2 estimated as 1633.59685: log likelihood = -183.74842

Information Criteria:

AIC AICc BIC


371.4968 371.8605 374.6639

In-sample error measures:

ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1


0 39.8524674 24.7809259 -36.5785021 50.2501045 0.6893724 0.0930103

Ljung-Box test of the model residuals:


Chi-squared = 15.5911, df = 18, p-value = 0.621058

Plots
EF

Summary of ARIMA Model ARIMNA

Method: ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)[12]

Call:
[Link]([Link])

Coefficients:

ma1
Value -0.761428
Std Err 0.167946

sigma^2 estimated as 4986.61751: log likelihood = -119.12126

Information Criteria:

AIC AICc BIC


242.2425 242.9092 244.3316

In-sample error measures:

ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1


-14.1371401 54.1599891 33.5514105 -15.9620093 27.7686816 0.7597849 0.1430872

Ljung-Box test of the model residuals:


Chi-squared = 18.2477, df = 9, p-value = 0.040904

Plots
HI

Summary of ARIMA Model ARIMNA

Method: ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,0,0)[12]

Call:
[Link]([Link])

Coefficients:

ar1 intercept
Value -0.233727 62.061646
Std Err 0.150176 3.467247

sigma^2 estimated as 834.54481: log likelihood = -209.42945

Information Criteria:

AIC AICc BIC


424.8589 425.4589 430.2115

In-sample error measures:

ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1


-0.107755 28.2242973 23.362582 -56.3863043 82.6843489 0.7101493 -0.0138183

Ljung-Box test of the model residuals:


Chi-squared = 16.1418, df = 21, p-value = 0.761634

Plots
JK

Summary of ARIMA Model ARIMNA

Method: ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,0,0)[12]

Call:
[Link]([Link])

Coefficients:

intercept
Value 167.908261
Std Err 2.821387

sigma^2 estimated as 557.33181: log likelihood = -315.55215

Information Criteria:

AIC AICc BIC


635.1043 635.2861 639.5725

In-sample error measures:

ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1


0 23.4361801 14.1677253 -5.0651517 12.6690105 0.648039 0.1098779

Ljung-Box test of the model residuals:


Chi-squared = 31.9849, df = 24, p-value = 0.127368

Plots
LM

Summary of ARIMA Model ARIMNA

Method: ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,0,0)[12]

Call:
[Link]([Link])

Coefficients:

intercept
Value 147.994286
Std Err 8.38682

sigma^2 estimated as 2042.42108: log likelihood = -145.92761

Information Criteria:

AIC AICc BIC


295.8552 296.3352 298.5196

In-sample error measures:

ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1


0 44.3787953 32.5313265 -38.4560237 56.5731147 0.8680808 0.0915166

Ljung-Box test of the model residuals:


Chi-squared = 6.3025, df = 14, p-value = 0.958281

Plots
OP

Summary of ARIMA Model ARIMNA

Method: ARIMA(0,0,0)(1,0,0)[12]

Call:
[Link]([Link])

Coefficients:

sar1 intercept
Value -0.309231 138.086
Std Err 0.166941 5.224577

sigma^2 estimated as 1922.99237: log likelihood = -238.76951

Information Criteria:

AIC AICc BIC


483.539 484.1105 489.0249

In-sample error measures:

ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1


-0.9837509 42.8880404 33.9527207 -52.4320965 72.0704421 0.6524683 0.0362562

Ljung-Box test of the model residuals:


Chi-squared = 28.0948, df = 22, p-value = 0.172562

Plots
QR

Summary of ARIMA Model ARIMNA

Method: ARIMA(0,0,0)(0,0,0)[12]

Call:
[Link]([Link])

Coefficients:

intercept
Value 123.984528
Std Err 7.076686

sigma^2 estimated as 2705.25024: log likelihood = -284.12713

Information Criteria:

AIC AICc BIC


572.2543 572.4943 576.1948

In-sample error measures:

ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1


0 51.5190041 46.0877038 -41.0877654 68.4023268 0.7606334 0.0177433

Ljung-Box test of the model residuals:


Chi-squared = 12.8618, df = 24, p-value = 0.968344

Plots
ST

Summary of ARIMA Model ARIMNA

Method: ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,0,0)[12]

Call:
[Link]([Link])

Coefficients:

ar1 intercept
Value -0.33769 128.321765
Std Err 0.173579 5.348965

sigma^2 estimated as 1719.21598: log likelihood = -163.62793

Information Criteria:

AIC AICc BIC


333.2559 334.113 337.6531

In-sample error measures:

ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE ACF1


-0.6315489 40.1467929 30.3258611 -48.5020456 66.8408951 0.6898434 0.0226793

Ljung-Box test of the model residuals:


Chi-squared = 13.0056, df = 15, p-value = 0.601864

Plots
Group MAE MAPE MASE ACF1 p-value
XY 18.8973333 16.2516849 0.6107406 -0.1087007 0.376481
. . . . . .
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. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
ST 18.8973333 16.2516849 0.6107406 -0.1087007 0.601864

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