GH SunshineINTRODUCTION TO TREE DIAGRAM

A tree diagram is a pictorial representation of different ways of outcomes. Tree diagram can be a useful
device for keeping track of conditional probabilities when using multiplication and partition rules.

The idea is to draw a tree where each path represents a sequence of events.
- On any given branch of the tree, write the conditional probability of that event given all the events on
branches leading to it.
- The probability at any node of the tree is obtained by multiplying the probabilities on the branches leading
to the node and equals the probability of the intersection of the events leading to it.

*The probabilities on the terminal nodes must add up to one.

 GH Sunshine
EXAMPLE 4.10
A bag contains of five yellow balls and three blue balls. Two balls are drawn one by one with replacement.
a) Draw a tree diagram.
b) Find the probability of at least one blue ball will be selected.

a) Outcomes b) Probability of at least one blue ball

n(Aሻ
P A = will be selected
n(Sሻ 5 Y YY
8 = YB + BY + BB
3
5 Y
5 3 3 5 3 3 39
8 = × + × + × =
8 B YB 8 8 8 8 8 8 64

5 or
3 Y BY
8 8 1 - Probability of no blue ball will be selected
3
B 8 = 1 − YY
B BB 5 5 39
=1 − × =
8 8 64
GH Sunshine EXAMPLE 4.11
A bag contains of five yellow balls and three blue balls. Two balls are drawn one by one without replacement.
a) Draw a tree diagram.
b) Find the probability of getting the first ball is blue and the second ball is yellow.

a) Outcomes b) Probability of getting the first ball

n(Aሻ
P A =
4 is blue and the second ball is yellow
n(Sሻ Y YY
7 = BY
3
5 Y
3 5 15
7 = × =
8 B YB 8 7 56

3 5 Y BY
8 7
2
B 7
B BB
GH Sunshine
EXAMPLE 4.12

65% of the students go to college by their own transport, 20% by bus and the remaining students walk to college.
From past experience, 2% of the students with own transport were late for college and 4% of those who take buses
were late to college. Only 1% of those walking to college were late. Draw a tree diagram.

Outcomes
* O: Own transport P L Oሻ = 0.02
0.02 L
B: Bus
W: Walk 0.98
L: Late O L’ P L′ Oሻ = 0.98
L’: Not late (early) 0.65
L P L Bሻ = 0.02
0.04
0.20 0.96
B L’ P L′ Bሻ = 0.96

L P L Wሻ = 0.01
0.01
0.15 0.99
W L’ P L′ Wሻ = 0.99
GH Sunshine
EXAMPLE 4.13

In a Running Kids game, players are asked to find treasure boxes (X, Y and Z) hidden in a garage. Each box contains a total
of 10 gold coins and silver coins. The probability of finding the treasure box X, Y and Z are 0.3, 0.5 and 0.2, respectively.
Box X contains 6 gold coins, box Y contains 3 gold coins, while box Z contains 2 gold coins.
Draw a tree diagram to summarize the above information.
 GH Sunshine
EXAMPLE 4.14
A manufacturing firm employs three designs for the development of a particular product. The three designs; A, B and C are used
for 30%, 20% and 50% of the product respectively. The defect rate for the three designs is as follows.
P(D|A) = 0.01 P(D|B) = 0.03 P(D|C) = 0.02

where D represents defective product.

a) Draw a tree diagram representing the situation. b) Find the probability that a product chosen at random
is free from any defect.
* D: Defect
D’: No defect P(D|A) = 0.01 P(D’ሻ = P (A ∩ D’ሻ ∪ P(B ∩ D’ሻ ∪ P(C ∩ D’ሻ
0.01 D
= (0.3 x 0.99) + (0.2 x 0.97) + (0.5 x 0.98)
0.99
A
0.3 D’ = 0.981
D P(D|B) = 0.03
0.03 c) If a random product was observed and found to be
0.2
B 0.97 defective, find the probability that design B was
D’ used.
0.5 D P(D|C) = 0.02 P(B ∩ Dሻ
0.02 P(B | D) =
P(Dሻ
C 0.98 P(D) = 1 – P(D’ሻ
D’ (0.2 x 0.03ሻ
= = 1 – 0.981
0.019
6
= or 0.3158
19
 QUICK CHECK 2

Question 1
Three local pharmaceutical wholesalers (X, Y and Z) are competing for a contract to supply medicines to a Hospital
ABC. The probabilities that pharmaceutical wholesaler, X, Y and Z will win the contract are 0.35, 0.25 and 0.40
respectively. If pharmaceutical wholesaler, X, Y and Z win the contract, the probabilities that they will make profits
are 0.65, 0.85 and 0.55 respectively.
a) Draw a tree diagram for the above information.
b) Find the probability that pharmaceutical wholesaler will make profit.
c) Calculate the probability that the contract was given to pharmaceutical wholesaler X given that the contract is
found to be unprofitable.

Question 2
A transistor radio manufacturing factory has three machines, A, B and C. Machine A, B and C contribute 25%, 30%
and 45% respectively in the production of transistors. From past record, machine A, B and C produced 8%, 7% and
5% defective transistors respectively.
a) Draw a tree diagram for the above information.
b) A transistor is chosen at random. Calculate the probability that the transistor is produced by machine C given it
is defective.
Answers:
49 45
1. b) 0.66 c) 2. b)
136 127
 INTRODUCTION TO CONTINGENCY TABLE

EXAMPLE 4.15
Contingency table is also known as cross-
tabulation table. It summarized a group by GH Corporation has recently conducted a survey to obtain a gender
and age profile of customers of its new brand of laptops. 200
means of distinct categories according to purchasers were selected where 80 were female purchasers, 60
purchasers are males and under 30 years old; 50 purchasers are over
the respective characteristics. The numbers 45 years old and 10 of them are females. A total of 30 females is
within the table represent the frequency, between 30 to 45 years old. Present the data in a contingency table.

within each pair of subcategories and so the Solution:

contingency table allows the interaction Age (Years)

Gender Total
between these two categories.
below 30 30 - 45 over 45

Male

Female

Total
 P(A ∩ Bሻ
INTRODUCTION TO CONTINGENCY TABLE P(A | B) =
P(Bሻ

EXAMPLE 4.16 EXAMPLE 4.17

n(Aሻ
P A =
n(Sሻ
The sales manager of a GH computer shop recorded the A Statistics class consists of 10 male and 20 female students.
sales of 250 units of computers in a particular month. Of Two of the male students and four of the female students are
those 250 units sold, 150 units belonged to model A, of bumiputera. Present the information in a contingency table.
which 30 units were sold with 15 inches monitor. 35 A student is randomly selected. Find the probability of selecting
units of model B were sold with 15 inches monitors. The a male student given that the student is a non-bumiputera.
rest of the units were sold with 17 inches monitors.
Present the information in a contingency table. Hence,
find the number of units sold with model B and a 17
inches monitor.
 QUICK CHECK

Random samples of 200 adults are classified below by gender and their level of
education attained. The probability for each category of gender and education
level is shown below.

Education level
Gender Total
Elementary Secondary College

Male 0.190 0.140 0.110

Female 0.225 0.250 0.085

Total

If a person is selected at random from this group, find the probability that the
person
a) attained a secondary level education.
b) is a female and attained a college level education.
c) attained an elementary level education given that the person is a male.