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Probability Exercises and Solutions

The document presents a series of probability exercises involving various scenarios such as coin tosses, machine defects, insurance customers, weather conditions, health risk factors, and a casino game. Each exercise requires calculating specific probabilities based on given conditions and data. The exercises cover a range of probability concepts including conditional probability, joint probability, and the law of total probability.

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bachuanqi7
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13 views2 pages

Probability Exercises and Solutions

The document presents a series of probability exercises involving various scenarios such as coin tosses, machine defects, insurance customers, weather conditions, health risk factors, and a casino game. Each exercise requires calculating specific probabilities based on given conditions and data. The exercises cover a range of probability concepts including conditional probability, joint probability, and the law of total probability.

Uploaded by

bachuanqi7
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Exercises

EX1 Toss two fair coins, blindfolded. Somebody tells you that you tossed at least one Heads. What is the probability
that both tosses are Heads?

EX2 Flip a fair coin. If you toss Heads, roll 1 die. If you toss Tails, roll 2 dice. Compute the probability that you roll
exactly one 6.

EX3 A factory has three machines, 𝑀! , 𝑀" and 𝑀# , that produce items (say, lightbulbs). It is impossible to tell which
machine produced a particular item, but some are defective. Here are the known numbers:

You pick an item, test it, and find it is defective. What is the probability that it was made by machine 𝑀" ?

EX4 An insurance company examines its pool of auto insurance customers and gathers the following information:
(i) All customers insure at least one car.
(ii) 70% of the customers insure more than one car.
(iii) 20% of the customers insure a sports car.
(iv) Of those customers who insure more than one car, 15% insure a sports car.
Calculate the probability that a randomly selected customer insures exactly one car and that car is not a sports car.
EX5 The Land of Nod lies in the monsoon zone, and has just two seasons, Wet and Dry. TheWet season lasts for 1/3
of the year, and the Dry season for 2/3 of the year. During the Wet season, the probability that it is raining is 3/4;
during the Dry season, the probability that it is raining is 1/6.
(a) I visit the capital city, Oneirabad, on a random day of the year. What is the probability that it is raining when I
arrive?
(b) I visit Oneirabad on a random day, and it is raining when I arrive. Given this information, what is the probability
that my visit is during the Wet season?
(c) I visit Oneirabad on a random day, and it is raining when I arrive. Given this information, what is the probability
that it will be raining when I return to Oneirabad in a year’s time?
EX6 An actuary is studying the prevalence of three health risk factors, denoted by A, B, and C, within a population of
women. For each of the three factors, the probability is 0.1 that a woman in the population has only this risk factor
(and no others). For any two of the three factors, the probability is 0.12 that she has exactly these two risk factors
(but not the other). The probability that a woman has all three risk factors, given that she has A and B, is 1/3.
Calculate the probability that a woman has none of the three risk factors, given that she does not have risk factor A.
Ex7 Many casinos allow you to bet even money on the following game. Two dice are rolled and the sum S is
observed.
If 𝑆 ∈ {7,11}, you win immediately. If 𝑆 ∈ {2,3,12}, you lose immediately.
If 𝑆 ∈ {4, 5, 6, 8, 9,10}, the pair of dice is rolled repeatedly until one of the following happens:
• S repeats, in which case you win.
• 7 appears, in which case you lose.
What is the winning probability?

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