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A local case study of the crime decline

Article in Safer Communities · April 2015

DOI: 10.1108/SC-01-2015-0004

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A Local Case Study of the Crime Decline
By Dr Garner Clancey, University of Sydney.

Abstract
There has been limited, but increasing, recognition and analysis of the crime decline in various parts
of the world in recent years. In New South Wales (Australia), this crime decline has mostly been
confined to property crime (which calls into question the appropriateness of the blanket term ‘crime
decline’). One dimension missing from the analysis to date has been the local dimensions and
impacts of the NSW property crime decline. Using the Glebe postcode area (Sydney, New South
Wales) as a case study, this article considers local trends in crime and the explanations provided by
local workers for the declines in key volume offences (which predominantly focus on local programs
and dynamics). Some of the associated impacts of the property crime decline in Glebe in the last 12
years including improvements in the perceptions of crime, the dismantling of some crime prevention
measures and pressure on funding of crime prevention programs are also considered.

The Crime Decline

A number of commentators have reviewed crime trends in various jurisdictions and highlighted
significant falls in crime. Zimring, in his book, The Great American Crime Decline, revealed significant
falls in major crime types in the US. Using Federal Bureau of Investigation uniform crime reports for
seven ‘index offences’ in the US from 1990–2000, Zimring highlighted the following falls: 39 per cent
reduction in homicide; 41 per cent reduction in rape; 44 per cent reduction in robbery; 24 per cent
reduction in aggravated assault; 41 per cent reduction in burglary; 37 per cent reduction in auto
theft; and 23 per cent reduction in larceny. Starting in 1991, these substantial falls amounted to ‘the
longest decline ever recorded’ in crime in the US.

Similar declines have been experienced and reported in England and Wales, where burglary fell 59
per cent, and vehicle theft fell 65 per cent between 1995 and 2007 (Farrell et al 2011, p. 148).
Britton et al (2012) suggest that ‘all property crimes are at significantly lower levels compared with
the high point in 1995’, with burglary down 57 per cent, vehicle-related theft down 72 per cent;
other household theft down 44 per cent; and bicycle theft down 20 per cent (2012, p. 164). van Dijk
et al (2012) discovered generally similar trends in various European (including Western and Eastern
European) countries.

In her analysis of crime trends in Australia and New Zealand, Mayhew (2012) concluded that
Australian burglary rates in 2009 were at about the level they were in 1977–78, ‘the national rate [of
homicide] was nearly 40 per cent lower than in 1993’ and ‘the robbery rate was at the same level in
2009 as in 1993’ (2012, pp. 83–4). Motor vehicle theft in Australia plummeted and fell 55 per cent
between 2001 and 2007 (Farrell et al 2011, pp. 151–2).

In New South Wales (‘NSW’) in ‘the 10 years between 2001 and 2010 the rate of household burglary
recorded by NSW Police fell by half and the current rate of household burglary is considerably lower
than it was 20 years ago’ (Fitzgerald & Poynton 2011, p. 1). Weatherburn and Holmes reveal that
between:

1
 2000 and 2012, New South Wales (NSW), along with most other Australian States and
Territories, experienced a remarkable fall in theft and robbery offences … Over this period
the robbery rate fell 66.5 per cent while the theft rate fell 54.8 per cent. Rates of these two
categories of recorded crime in NSW are now the lowest they have been since 1995 (2013a,
p. 1).

Clancey and Lulham (2014) estimated that the cost savings associated with this property crime
decline in NSW could be as great as A$5 billion.

While the evidence mounts that there have been significant declines in some crime types across
numerous jurisdictions, little attention has been paid to the local dimensions of these declines and
any associated impacts. Through the use of a single case study site, it has been possible to chart
impacts of falls in some offences in this area.

The Case Study Area

A Local Government Area (‘LGA’) is the geographical marker that is often used for reporting crime
statistics, crime prevention planning, and for other service delivery purposes in NSW. LGAs in NSW
vary in size ranging from 10 square kilometres to tens of thousands of square kilometres in rural
areas. It is argued that the often vast areas covered by LGAs are too large for useful analysis of crime
and to develop an understanding of the local dynamics impacting on crime.

The Glebe postcode area, the case study site, provides a contained geographical area, making it
possible to generate the depth of analysis required for a comprehensive case study. The Glebe
postcode area covers 240 hectares (Solling, 2007) or just over two square kilometres and sits about
two kilometres west of the Sydney Central Business District (see figure 1). The area has a mix of
residential, industrial and commercial uses.

Figure 1: Map of Sydney Central Business District (bordered area) and Glebe

Source: Google Maps.

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 According to the most recent census data, the residential population of the area has been stable
over the last decade, sitting just over 11,000 people (ABS, 2012). Of these, a little greater than two
per cent are Indigenous Australians, the majority of the population was born in Australia and only
speaks English at home, and the median age is 35 years. The unemployment rate has fluctuated and,
at the most recent Census, 6.7 per cent of the Glebe residential population was unemployed (see
Clancey 2014 for a more detailed overview of the area and its socio-demographic characteristics).

Crime Trends
Incidents of crime are reported to and recorded by the NSW Police Force. These records are then
provided to the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (‘BOCSAR’) who clean and publish the
data as crime statistics. These crime statistics are generally not provided for years prior to 1995 due
to the quality of the data. The introduction of an electronic police database in the early 1990s
improved the accuracy of the data captured on reported crimes. Consequently, analysis of crime
data for the Glebe area was restricted to the years 1995 to 2012. Apart from some notable
exceptions (such as murder, sexual assault), only key volume offences will be discussed here. In such
a small area as Glebe, many offences have fewer than 50 incidents per annum.

Table 1 lists the number of incidents of each offence category reported to and recorded by the NSW
Police Force between 1995 and 2012 for the Glebe postcode area.

Table 1: Incidents of Crime by Offence Category for the Glebe Postcode Area between
1995 and 2012
Offence 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Murder 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
DV related
assault 23 57 40 27 49 55 58 62 58 80 48 71 62 56 72 78 64 68
Non DV
related
assault 102 101 112 143 144 172 171 217 147 152 145 147 155 147 145 123 123 102
Sexual
assault 9 10 5 4 7 7 8 7 14 6 5 11 8 2 15 10 11 10
Robbery
without a
weapon 27 21 47 67 72 58 56 57 69 44 43 35 66 34 27 17 26 18
Robbery
with a
firearm 1 9 5 4 1 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 3 4 0 2 4
Robbery
with a
weapon not
a firearm 7 11 28 40 38 28 22 17 22 20 24 17 24 13 8 11 4 10
Break and
enter
dwelling 253 282 342 422 294 449 372 424 305 273 240 173 156 148 165 151 90 110
Motor
vehicle theft 306 254 290 328 234 275 229 188 127 153 96 106 126 94 69 77 84 52
Steal from
motor
vehicle 437 434 439 689 924 1081 977 736 866 596 341 477 879 705 238 211 121 107
Steal from
retail store 51 44 38 75 124 155 149 184 128 94 66 90 154 126 120 183 310 215
Steal from
dwelling 138 112 129 228 157 202 179 158 118 120 109 95 61 81 92 94 82 81
Steal from
person 50 74 65 97 107 86 115 151 171 139 93 109 101 88 52 42 47 33
Fraud 20 29 61 46 125 92 97 160 99 125 152 101 139 149 109 99 167 200
Malicious
damage to 376 333 315 450 542 421 466 379 353 348 296 322 423 429 277 272 247 233

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property
Breach bail
conditions 8 9 4 14 24 35 53 33 44 85 148 151 398 389 259 199 268 241
Source: BOCSAR Data File — Reference: jh13–11635.

The highest number of offences (for those offence categories that had more than 10 incidents in a
year) has been lightly highlighted. No complex analysis has been conducted on the data as it is not
required for current purposes.

What is clear from Table 1 is the lack of uniform trends across crime types. Some offence categories
have fluctuated little (murder, sexual assault), while some have increased (steal from retail store,
fraud, breach of bail conditions) and others have declined across the 1995 to 2012 period (robbery
offences, break and enter dwelling, steal from dwelling, motor vehicle theft, steal from motor
vehicle, malicious damage to property). Those offences that have fallen are predominantly the key
volume offences and many of these falls have been substantial (although there was a slight spike in
some offences in 2007/08 – steal from motor vehicle, for example).

Research Methods
Despite the somewhat mixed picture for some offences, there was widespread recognition during
two focus groups and 15 interviews with local workers that many types of crime was generally lower
in the area in 2012 than in the early 2000s. Before considering these views, a brief overview will be
provided of the research methods adopted to elicit these views.

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 workers in the Glebe area throughout 2012 and
2013. These interviews were digitally recorded and transcribed by a professional transcription
company. The semi-structured interviews ranged in duration from 31 to 99 minutes; the average
interview lasted approximately 52 minutes. In total, 772 minutes of semi-structured interviews were
recorded.

Broadly categorised, these interviewees were drawn from non-government organisations providing
diverse social services (n=8), local government (n=3), law enforcement (n=3), and a voluntary
organisation (n=1). Interviewees were recruited by direct contact, constituting a purposive sample
(Maxfield & Babbie 2005, p. 238). Snowballing techniques were used to locate further organisations
and personnel in the area (Maxfield & Babbie 2005, p. 241). Three prospective interviewees, from
NSW government agencies with a footprint in the area but cover much larger areas than just Glebe,
declined to be interviewed, failed to respond to correspondence inviting participation or interviews
were not included due to excessive administrative requirements.

Two focus groups were also conducted with diverse local stakeholders (some of whom were
interviewees). The focus groups focused on recent crime trends and informed whether there was
need to develop a new local crime prevention and community safety strategy. The focus groups
were also digitally recorded, professionally transcribed and analysed like the interview transcripts.

Content analysis (also referred to as ‘thematic qualitative analysis’ by Cosgrove and Francis (2011))
of the interview and focus groups transcripts and meeting notes was conducted manually. Given the
relatively small number of interviews and focus groups, manual analysis was considered the most
time-efficient method. All transcripts were closely read to ‘support familiarisation with material’ and

4
‘a wide range of categories or themes were identified’ (or coded) (Cosgrove & Francis 2011, p. 214).
This process enabled the ‘researcher to understand the character of the data and to control for
original assumptions’ (Cosgrove & Francis 2011, p. 214).

Coding of the data ‘entailed brining a measure of organisation to the data and identifying conceptual
categories’ (Noaks & Wincup 2004, p. 130). This process was iterative. The transcripts were read on
a number of occasions, allowing for reflection on the themes that emerged. The production of
themes and sub-themes through this process is consistent with the whittling down of data, common
in various forms of qualitative research (Cosgrove & Francis, 2011). This process allowed for ordering
and re-ordering of emerging themes, which maintained a closeness to the data.

Findings
Interviews and focus groups with local workers sought to gain an insight into their understanding of
crime trends in the area, the causes and impacts of these trends. Three key findings will be discussed
here: the widespread acknowledgement of declines in some crime categories, possible explanations
for the decline in these offences and the implications of these declines.

Widespread Acknowledgement of Declines in Some Offences in Glebe

Focus groups and interviews with local workers revealed a general consensus that some offences
had fallen in the area. Some of the comments from these focus groups and interviews are provided
below.

We’ve seen dramatic reductions in particularly steal from motor vehicle, robbery and assault
statistics … We‘ve got crime levels at their lowest ever … I think probably where Glebe has
really improved greatly in the last two to three years has been a real reduction in violent
crime (Interviewee #2).

What I am hearing is that the youth crime is down (Interviewee #3).

[F]rom where I sit today the crime stuff seems to be greatly reduced (Interviewee #5).

I think the general perception is that there’s not a lot of crime in Glebe. The police certainly
say that. Community talk about the crime having dropped off since ‘09, ‘08 when we had a
lot of petty break and enters and thefts and a few muggings and stuff like that (Interviewee
#13).

I think there has been a big drop in crime in Glebe over the last few years (Interviewee #14).

I know that the statistics have varied and come down of late (Interviewee #15).

[W]e all go to the community policing meetings and their stats certainly indicate that crime
is down in Glebe (Focus Group Participant).

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In general then, there was widespread recognition by local workers that many offence categories
had fallen in Glebe in recent years.

Possible Explanations of Falls in Some Offences in Glebe

The possible explanations for the decline in some offences were explored in the interviews and focus
groups. Many of the explanations provided neatly fall into one of the four categories of Tonry and
Farrington’s (1995) typology of crime prevention — 1) developmental, 2) social and community, 3)
situational (including crime prevention through environmental design ) (‘CPTED’), and 4) policing and
criminal justice.

The following early intervention and community-based programs operating in the area were
identified as potentially having contributed to the falls in some offences:

[C]rime prevention in its broadness, I guess, happens with all those agencies working
together in different ways at different levels. I suppose the Schools Community Centre [early
intervention program for children aged between 0 and 8 years and their families] plays a
part too, not so much with the young people that go to that but I guess with their families as
well (Interviewee #5).

[T]he Pathways Program [an alternative education program] has revealed that that
transition from primary school to high school is a component of that and people dropping
out, people not going to high school. So I know there’s been some good stuff done with
Glebe Primary, for example … (Interviewee #5).

PCYC [Police Citizens Youth Club], and then there’s the Youth Service as well. They’re
probably the two biggest players in terms of crime prevention for young people and they
both do sort of similar things but in a sense I think they’re both very different as well
(Interviewee #1).

There’s a breakfast program, again coming back to that factor of neglect happening in some
of these families which are susceptible to falling to the cycle of crime (Interviewee #2).

These diverse community and youth programs are seen as potentially contributing to the falls in
crime, despite some of the programs having varying degrees of direct focus on crime prevention.
Challinger’s (1992) ‘serendipitous’ crime prevention and Knepper’s (2007) observations regarding
various social interventions and policies that had positive unintended consequences of preventing
crime suggest that programs of this kind can have positive crime prevention outcomes irrespective
of whether they were specifically designed to prevent crime. Currie (1998) and Skogan (2006) have
highlighted the benefits of community-based programs in the United States that have direct
intentions to prevent crime.

Others are less positive about the merits of programs of this kind. Crawford (1998) has argued that
‘despite the energy and effort put into community crime prevention there has been little sustainable

6
success’ (1998, p. 155). Homel (2007) similarly suggests that ‘community programs attract funding
because they ‘feel good’ and help keep a range of community organisations operating. This is good
politics but it may or may not be good crime prevention, especially since rigorous evaluation is
seldom supported’ (2007, p. 277). A greater focus on determining the crime prevention impact of
these and related programs is needed.

Some specific situational and CPTED measures were also nominated as having reduced opportunities
for crime — some relate to broad developments impacting on Glebe, while others are specific to
Glebe. The reduction in steal from motor vehicle offences was partially attributed to car security and
the reduction in the second-hand stolen goods market:

[S]teal from cars, I don’t think that happens nearly as much now because the nature of the
way cars are locked and alarmed. There’s a reduction in GPS [Global Positioning System],
portable GPS, now or people are more aware about putting them away. I don’t think there’s
the market for fences in pubs like there used to be (Focus Group Participant).

This is consistent with aspects of Farrell et al’s (2008, 2011) ‘security hypothesis’, which suggests
that improved security has had a direct impact on offences such as steal from motor vehicle.

Street lighting, which has been positively evaluated for its impact on crime (Painter & Tilley, 2010),
was also highlighted as a successful local measure that has contributed to the reduction in crime:

We actively try and work on adequate lighting in lanes and streets so that people are safe. I
think if you‘ve got an active nightlife you certainly reduce the possibility of on the street type
crimes (Interviewee #6).

A further, very specific, design modification was mentioned by a number of interviewees and focus
group participants as having a particularly beneficial impact:

[A] gate [was installed] into one aspect of the [public housing] complex and that reduced the
crime in that area by 90 per cent almost overnight. So that was quite fascinating and
Housing were really reluctant to do that but that proved a real winner (Interviewee #5).

I mean it was interesting, because from what I remember with the [public housing estate]
stuff is the locals in that building just wanted that gate closed off, and there were a whole lot
of reasons given why it couldn‘t happen. In the end it happened and stuff just cleared up
overnight (Focus Group Participant).

They also sealed off a lot of the entrances so like many of the public housing environments
there’s probably some real design flaws in terms of the number of access and egress points
into that part of the estate, so plenty of escape routes for would-be offenders to find. So
they sealed off a lot of those and just spent some money on beautifying. They took some of

7
 the elements of the façade, they took those down because they were used as natural
ladders to climb up on to the roof (Interviewee #2).

These comments suggest the potential benefits of simple CPTED measures. The installation of these
gates, as described above, would have required little funding. While these measures have not been
thoroughly evaluated, there is research evidence from other jurisdictions of the merits of similar
interventions (Hayward et al, 2009). 1

Further CPTED treatments in the public housing estates, consistent with the CPTED principles of
space management and access control, were also mentioned:

There was some money spent by Housing NSW on that specific estate, looking at preventing
access to the underground car park which was basically a dead space which a few people
had vehicles. It was dark and a place of rubbish dumping. I think they used to find stolen
goods in there (Interviewee #2).

Considerable positive commentary was also made by interviewees and focus group members
regarding the beautification and public works along the main commercial street in the area (i.e.
Glebe Point Road):

There was an upgrade of Glebe Point Road so some CCTV footage went in … One [CCTV
camera] went in Francis Street (Interviewee #2).

[O]f course, we had the upgrade at Glebe Point Road, so that was a big jump in quality
improvement of lighting and facilitation of footpaths and all those sorts of things (Focus
Group Participant).

Further to the opportunity-reduction and design measures, police practices were also identified as
contributing to the falls in crime:

I think probably the police proactiveness has played a part as well (Interviewee #5).

I’ve got to say I think the commander at the time, [name of former Commander] was
fantastic. I think he drove — he shifted some of the ways that police did stuff, which was
really helpful (Focus Group Participant).

2008 is also when our Friend in Hand youth program [run by the police] started up which
we‘re still running and hugely successful (Focus Group Participant).

1
While there is some evidence of the effectiveness of ‘alley-gating’, for example, Hayward et al (2009)
caution against the ready application of such approaches elsewhere. Local contextual factors, they argue,
need to be considered before design measures such as these are implemented.

8
 On the streets there is a heightened police presence and I believe that community people
are feeling that. I think that’s coming from I guess police really wanting to put a halt on that
crime and by increasing that presence they’re increasing the community’s sense of safety,
and in the hopes also to reduce the crime … Yeah. My understanding is that there is quite a
mistrust between the community and police, despite the good work police do and are
looking at building those relationships (Interviewee #3).

These comments highlight the potential merits of different styles of policing. Interviewee #5
suggests that proactive policing is considered to have contributed to the reduction in crime, while
two focus group participants suggest that the more community-oriented aspects of policing have
been successful (especially the Friend in Hand youth program).

Interestingly, the majority of programs and interventions highlighted have a specific local focus. Falls
in some crimes across Sydney (Weatherburn & Holmes, 2013a), in other parts of NSW or Australia
(Weatherburn & Holmes, 2013b; Mayhew, 2012), and internationally (van Dijk et al, 2012) make it
difficult to isolate the relative contribution of local activities and dynamics and to determine the
veracity of the observations of the local workers. There is clearly much to be gained by believing that
local programs, services and interventions have had direct impacts on crime. However, as one
interviewee highlighted, this might be well be easier to do when levels of some crime types are
falling:

I’ve been in meetings with police where they’ve said it’s a state decline in crime. This has got
to do with police initiatives or there’s a global trend or a recent Labor [political party] policy
about the youth New Start [welfare payment] or I don’t know. So there’s always something
else that’s being tied to a decrease in crime. When it’s an increase that’s quite different … I
think people fall back into a mode of making it the individual’s problem rather than a
community problem or rather than a societal problem … People become protectionists
about their organisations (Interviewee #8).

Zimring has similarly cautioned that the crime decline provides a convenient justification of
particular methods of prevention: ‘The new theories of crime prevention … vary substantially in the
mechanisms they say reduce crime, but they share one common characteristic that requires special
caution: they use the … crime decline as evidence to prove that these newly discovered mechanisms
prevent crime’ (2007, p. 75). While a number of programs and policies mentioned directly
responded to specific crime problems (or perceived causes of these problems), a significant number
pre-dated the decline. The wider crime decline makes it difficult to separate important local versus
more global influences.

Impact of the Glebe Property Crime Decline

The significant decline in some offences in Glebe in recent years appears to have had particular
impacts, including reported improvements in perceptions of the area, the reduced need for renewal
of the local crime prevention and community safety plan and the decline in some inter-agency crime

9
prevention structures, and is seen by some as having the unwelcome consequence of threatening
funding for the area.

It was suggested by some that falls in some crime types in the area have had a positive impact on
the perceptions and amenity of the area:

[C]ause I’ve been up and down Glebe Point Road. I mean I go up and down it every day and
talking to shopkeepers and just popping in and saying hi, how’s it going. I’m told that
everything is fantastic. Yeah, they used to have to step over unconscious people to lift up
their roller doors at the beginning of the day, somebody had a needle hanging out of their
arm and, yeah, it used to be pretty bad (Interviewee #7).

These (limited) comments suggest that the falls in some crimes have had a positive impact on
perceptions of crime and the area more generally. This relationship between crime rates and
perceptions of crime is similar to recent findings focusing on local characteristics and crime rates and
perceptions of crime (Brunton-Smith & Sturgis, 2011). While there is considerable complexity and
debate surrounding efforts to measure fear of crime (Lee, 2007), these limited insights do suggest a
level of relationship between local crime rates and reported perceptions of crime.

While it is difficult to say with absolute confidence, there does seem to have been a direct impact of
falls in crime and improvements in the perceptions of the area on local policies. The Glebe
Community Safety Plan 2009–2012 was developed after a spike in some crime categories (especially
steal from motor vehicle) in 2007–08. In two focus groups in July 2013, it was decided that a further
community safety plan was not required, largely due to the crime decline (Ocias, 2013). There was a
commitment by local workers to keep collaborating and delivering relevant programs, but they felt
that little would be gained from developing a new Community Safety Plan.

A further potential impact of the general crime decline in the area over the last 10 to 12 years is the
gradual cessation of inter-agency groups and structures established to tackle crime and related
issues. Neighbourhood Watch has been in decline for many years; the Community Drug Action Team
is in hiatus; and Glebe does not have a Liquor Licensing Accord, due, it was suggested, to the lack of
problems with licensed venues and alcohol-related crime. The sole remaining inter-agency structure
with a crime/law enforcement focus is the Community Safety Precinct Committee (‘CSPC’).
Established in 2006, CSPCs ‘facilitate a multi-faceted approach to the development of community
safety and crime prevention strategies to address diverse community safety issues of the Local
Government Area, promoting cooperation between Council, the community, government and non-
government agencies’ (New South Wales Police Force, 2006, p. 2). Approximately four CSPC
meetings are held annually in Glebe, often not running for longer than one hour.

This decision not to develop a further crime prevention and community safety plan and the
reduction in inter-agency infrastructure contrasts with Gilling’s (1997) discussion of expansionary
tendencies of community safety and crime prevention practitioners. He suggests that there is vested
interest in identifying ‘areas of intervention over which they can attain both occupational control
and social closure, thereby maximising their own rewards and status’ (1997, p. 11). This can be
achieved by promising to be more preventive (via earlier intervention) and operating across a

10
‘broader canvass’ through partnership work (1997, pp. 12–13). While Gilling acknowledges that
there are limits to how much professionals can expand their reach, the decision not to develop
another crime prevention and community safety plan suggests a choice not to seek greater or
continued influence through policy recognition.

With generally lower crime rates for some offences in the area in recent times, there was a concern
about the ‘prevention paradox’ — if crime falls, services are withdrawn as the perceived need is
presumed to have dissipated. The perceived success of some of the local initiatives was felt to be at
risk because of the falling crime rates in the area. Workers frequently commented on the need to
consistently secure ongoing funding for particular programs and positions. This made potential
continuity of activities limited:

I’m concerned … that the City [of Sydney] will pull resources out of Glebe … And I think those
preventative strategies are preventative because they’re there and to remove them because
the crime rate is down is probably ill advised … we may well again face issues around
community safety. And if you pull all the resources then all the capital that’s built up, we
could sort of lose that as well (Focus Group Participant).

Conclusion
The failure to focus on and explaining the crime decline (‘criminology’s dirty little secret’) (Farrell et
al 2008), has been progressively tackled with increasing analysis of crime trends in various
jurisdictions in recent years. One feature missing from these empirical and theoretical works has
been a focus on the local characteristics and impacts of the crime decline. By concentrating on a
single contained geographical area, it has been possible to review crime trends and interview local
workers to explore their understanding of these trends. Local Glebe workers interviewed or
participating in two focus groups were generally aware that some crime types had fallen in the area
in recent years. Local programs, services, and interventions were frequently highlighted as reasons
for these falls.

In the absence of comprehensive evaluations of the various local programs it is difficult to attribute
falls in particular crimes to these programs. It is likely that they have contributed, at least in part, to
some of the reductions in crime, as Currie (1998) and Skogan (2006) have suggested elsewhere.
However, given the widespread nature of particular declines in specific offences, wider forces,
trends and policies have no doubt contributed a great deal to falls in offences locally. For example,
improvements in motor vehicle security are the result of work undertaken by car manufacturers and
improvements in security devices. Local falls in motor vehicle theft are undoubtedly the result of
these wider developments, with some scope for local dynamics impacting on the propensity of
would-be offenders to try to steal a motor vehicle. In this way, macro and micro dynamics interact to
produce falls in crime.

Irrespective of the explanations suggested, there does appear to have been some direct
consequences of falls in some offences in the area. It was decided by local workers that the
Community Safety Plan did not need to be renewed and there is evidence that some crime
prevention inter-agency groups have been slowly declining over time. This is perhaps in contrast to
some of the observations regarding the expansionary tendencies of crime prevention infrastructure

11
when crime was rising (see Gilling, 1997). Rather than expanding their reach, some local workers
expressed concern about preserving current levels of funding and services in the area. As crime falls,
the need to fund particular programs also falls. On a more positive note, perceptions of the area,
according to some local workers, have improved.

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