Risk-Informed

Development Guide
A practical approach for civil society organisations and communities most at risk
 SUKANTI BEHRA

India

“Cyclones are a major threat

here. Most of the families are
engaged in farming and paddy
is the main crop of the season.
We lose our crops in cyclones.

“We attend the Gram Sabha

(village council) but we are not
able to give any input because
we do not have sufficient
knowledge about local
government plans.” Photo: Sarika Gulati/GNDR

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 2

 CONTENTS

Introduction Key stages Tools

5 What is risk-informed development? 34 Stage 1: Engage with communities 77 Tool 1: From vision to goals template
most at risk
11 How to use this guide 79 Tool 2: Checklist on what data to
39 Stage 2: Organise around the vision gather and how to record it
16 The risk-informed development of the community most at risk
approach 86 Tool 3: Contextual analysis of
44 Stage 3: Understand context and geophysical susceptibility to hazards
22 The role of civil society organisations risks
92 Tool 4: Relationship mapping
25 Guiding principles 50 Stage 4: Risk prioritisation and exercise
development impact assessment
29 The three key phases of risk- 95 Tool 5: Reflective questions on the
informed development 54 Stage 5: Strategic foresight and resilience of people, place and
scenario planning systems

59 Stage 6: Strategise with 98 Tool 6: Risk-informed development

communities most at risk analysis options

65 Stage 7: Action with communities 102 Tool 7: SWOT analysis

most at risk

70 Stage 8: Accountability to
communities most at risk and
learning with them

74 Stage 9: Repeat and strengthen

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GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 3

 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Background Funder
This guide aims to consider how we can The production of this publication was funded
integrate risk-informed development into by the German Federal Ministry for Economic
all aspects of development, disaster risk Cooperation and Development (BMZ). All
management, climate adaptation and crises content is the sole responsibility of GNDR and
response work. It builds on the work of does not necessarily reflect the views of the
GNDR in community-based disaster risk BMZ.
management and coherence to measure
civil society’s success in engaging with
communities most at risk.
‘Risk-informed development: From crisis to
resilience’ (UNDP, p. 34) is a guiding reference
to evolve the process of risk-informed
development planning, alongside existing
GNDR approaches and resources.
We have also received input from GNDR
members who have shared risk-information The guide was written as part of the GNDR
and planning tools they currently use and project, Local Leadership for Global Impact,
places where they have identified gaps in their implemented in partnership with Diakonie
work. Katastrophenhilfe.
The content is a product of multiple resources,
best practices and research on disaster
management, risk drivers and development
planning, including participatory and
community-led development planning.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 4

 INTRODUCTION

What is risk-informed
development?

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 5

 INTRODUCTION

What is risk-informed development?

Risk-informed development Prioritise communities

prioritises the risks faced by most at risk
communities living in the most
vulnerable situations. It works GNDR wants to prevent hazards from Communities most at risk come up with
through the perspective of becoming disasters. As a global network of development solutions that mitigate their
people most at risk themselves. civil society organisations we can easily think risks and their build resilience. Their reality,
that we are ‘all in this together’ as we respond lived experience, knowledge, organisation and
Communities most at risk come to the hazards, risks and challenges that cause action allows us to be truly risk-informed in
up with development solutions disasters. planning for development. It is an approach
that mitigate their risks and builds However, when taking a closer look at
which enables more sustainable and resilient
development overall.
resilience. communities and the risks they face, it
becomes apparent that we are not ‘all in this
together’ in the same way. Threats, risks or
challenges discriminate.
Risk-informed development prioritises the
risks faced by communities living in the most
vulnerable situations. It works through the
perspective of people most at risk themselves.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 6

 INTRODUCTION

Base development on
community perspectives
of risk
The primary aim of risk-informed development Risk-informed development can only be Most importantly, if development planning
is to prepare the most vulnerable communities achieved if the development planning process considers local risk from the perspective of
for future risks, take up proactive measures is informed by the knowledge of risk and those most at risk, its potential for positive
to mitigate risks and to build the resilience acts to then mitigate the risk. Risk-informed impact on the lives, livelihoods and assets is
of communities and the landscapes they development planning therefore must substantially strengthened.
occupy and depend on - and do this through a involve multiple stakeholders with multiple
process led by them. objectives and agendas so as to streamline
Risk factors are part of the places in which action and decisions through coherence and
we live, such as the environmental capacity collaboration.
and the ecosystem service provided. The purpose is to arrive at documented
Unfortunately, risk factors are also linked to strategic actions and mutually agreed
people’s actions and social, economic and decisions that will:
psychological factors that put certain people
more at risk than others. • Avoid creating complex risks through poor
development choices
When development is not risk-informed,
communities most at risk report that far from • Reduce complex risks by using
offering progress, this so-called ‘development’ development to reduce vulnerability and
actually creates risk, increases existing risk exposure, and increase resilience
and wipes out potential development gains. • Promote iterative and constant learning
It challenges everyone involved to recognise to improve sustainable development and
that development choices create risk as well resilience
as opportunity.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 7

 INTRODUCTION

Knowledge generation
Becoming risk-informed 1 Avoid creating complex risks
through poor development choices

Reduce complex risks

which aims to 2 by using development to reduce vulnerability
and exposure, and increase resilience

Acting on knowledge Promote iterative and constant learning

Undertaking development 3 to improve sustainable development and
resiliently and sustainably resilience

Source info: UNDP report on risk-informed development: from crisis to resilience 2019

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 8

 INTRODUCTION

Six drivers of risk

GNDR has identified six risk drivers: these Understanding these risk drivers and how they Risk-informed development integrates this
are the contexts in which reducing disaster operate or influence communities, especially risk perspective by embedding risk drivers
risk has become more challenging as the from the perspective of those most at risk, can and hazards into the development planning
world changes. They are interconnected and help make effective and relevant decisions to process across each stage.
have the potential to amplify existing risk be more risk-informed.
and negatively impact the development of A localised understanding of the intrinsic
communities most at risk, as well as society at factors that increase peoples’ vulnerability to
large. these risk drivers across diverse geographies,
socio-cultural and economic contexts is vital.

Climate change Forced Urbanisation

displacement

Gender Food and water Conflict

inequality insecurity

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 9

 INTRODUCTION

Risk-informed Prevent hazards from

development planning becoming disasters
Development planning is a decision-making GNDR hopes that local knowledge, expertise
tool. When this process is applied by and realities from the perspective of the
communities most at risk and those around communities most at risk will contribute to
them, it allows them to make informed the development plans of all actors, including
decisions to realise their aspirations as a government, international institutions and the
community, for themselves and their place. private sector, so that policies and practices
are more risk-informed and hazards are
Risk-informed development resolves issues
prevented from becoming disasters.
and roadblocks in their progress and growth -
especially risk from risk drivers and hazards. The GNDR risk-informed development
guide and toolkit sets out the principles,
Conventional planning practices are now
approaches, stages and steps to complete
being replaced by more dynamic and iterative
risk-informed development planning.
processes as landscapes and communities
rapidly transform. This is partly due to hazards Conventional planning
and their associated risk drivers becoming
more complex, intense and frequent. practices are now
The GNDR community-led and participatory being replaced by more
risk-informed development planning process dynamic and iterative
involves nine stages. As development plans
and strategies are reviewed on a regular basis, processes as landscapes
revisit the nine stages. Always ask: How can
communities most at risk and everyone around
and communities
them work together to strengthen resilience rapidly transform.
and prevent hazards from becoming disasters?

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 10

 OVERVIEW

How to use this

guide

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 11

 OVERVIEW

How to use this guide

This risk-informed development What is included in

guide and toolkit aims to this guide?
strengthen the capacity of civil
society organisations to engage The guide highlights key approaches to Each stage recommends ways to integrate
in transformative risk-informed strengthen risk-informed development and aspects of risk information into a community-
development planning with recommends the stages necessary to deliver led development planning framework. This
risk-informed development planning. guide suggests ways to:
communities most at risk.
It aims for risk-informed development that is
• Gather, integrate and use information
localised, community-led and participatory.
around risks (specifically related to hazards
It highlights ways in which risks created by
and risk drivers)
hazards and risk drivers (e.g. climate change,
urbanisation, food and water insecurity, forced • Read and analyse multiple factors and
displacement, gender inequality and conflict) their impacts on places, people and
can be mitigated. systems (both physical and social)
It should not be seen as an exhaustive manual. • Prepare for anticipated risks in the
Its purpose is to point in the right direction, future and build resilience by harnessing
give an overview of the complexities involved environmental, social and economic
and highlight the multi-sectoral nature of potential
development planning. This guide should
not be seen as a replacement for the formal A central approach and guiding principles
development planning processes in various for carrying out risk-informed development
countries and regions. planning is provided, as well as structured
advice for each stage of the process.
It is intended to introduce or strengthen the
Objectives, key steps, as well as relevant tools
capacities of communities most at risk on
are given at each stage.
the use of risk information and encourage
greater participation by those most at risk in
development processes.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 12

 OVERVIEW

Who is this guide for?

This guide is for civil society organisations Those involved at national, regional or state
working together with communities most levels could further use this guide to advocate
at risk to strengthen their participatory for policies, national action plans and
development planning, so that it is risk- strategies that:
informed and results in strengthened
resilience. • Support localised and participatory
approaches which actively involve the
Civil society or non-governmental most at risk communities in the larger
organisations working at national and regional development planning and decision-
levels can also use the guide to ensure those making process
most at risk are able to advocate for policies
at the national level, and to support localised • Take into consideration the use of local
and risk-informed development planning that knowledge and data, localised scientific
is accountable to those most at risk. data on climate change, and the localised
implications of disasters
Development and planning require
institutional support through policies, • Support localised and indigenous methods
financing mechanisms and technical capacity. for resilience building and risk-mitigation

This guide is for civil

society organisations
working together with
communities most at
risk.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 13

 OVERVIEW

How to use this guide

Community-led and participatory methods For example, if gender imbalance is a major
and models of development planning should issue, carry out each stage with a gender
be carried out at a local scale. This means lens before moving on to address other risks.
that whether you are in a mega-city, town or If food and water insecurities have been
village, the scale of engagement has to start highlighted, then gather information and look
at the neighbourhood level to identify those out for evidence and issues specific to this.
most at risk and engage them in a process of Stage three will help you understand this
learning and knowledge gathering which can context.
inform development plans and decisions at If you are working well with the community and
regional and national levels. have lots of ideas for collaboration, perhaps
It is recognised that there are multiple look at stage four to prioritise risk actions.
entry points for this guide. Risk-informed If you are negotiating with national plans,
development can start at any point, including use stage eight to conduct learning and
in the immediate response to disasters. accountability measures to strengthen and
If work is already underway but you need to build on existing work.
know more of a community’s vision or engage
them further, refer to stages one and two of
this guide.
Risk-informed
If you know that amongst the six prioritised
risk drivers one is more prominent, take development can start
measures to focus your risk-informed
development process accordingly.
at any point, including in
the immediate response
to disasters.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 14

 MUWAMUNYA PATIENCE

Uganda

“We face poverty, hunger and

famine. My local government
have not helped us. The water
we have is unsafe although
we use it for drinking and
cooking. We are not included
in community planning and
decision making.”

Photo: Jjumba Martin/GNDR

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 15

 APPROACH

The risk-informed
development approach

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 16

 APPROACH

The risk-informed development approach

Risk-informed development Key considerations A rights-based approach

enables communities most at risk
to be leaders and key decision The central approach of risk-informed When identifying those individuals and
makers of development - and their development planning integrates participatory community groups most at risk, it must be
action and embeds risk information into remembered that whatever circumstances
future. It empowers individuals and existing planning processes. It is therefore they face, people deserve their human rights -
communities at risk to take action necessary to consider: the basic standards every person deserves to
today and in future to prevent risks live a life of dignity.
• How we incorporate the risk perspective
and build resilience. It captures local of those most at risk while carrying out the
Rights are economic, social, cultural, civil and
knowledge and better understands political. They are universal and indivisible.
development planning exercises
One person is not owed more or fewer rights
the localised implications of various • How we use risk information, including than another person. They should be seen
global and local factors of influence. from the perspective of those most at risk, with collective responsibility. It is the primary
It aims to ensure that no one is left while planning for community development responsibility of the state to respect, protect,
such that communities most at risk have promote and fulfil human rights.
behind. better resilience against various risks as
However, where rights are denied, the issue
they progress into the future
should be addressed to tackle the root causes
and empower people to achieve or claim their
rights, and enable duty-bearers to meet their
obligations.
The rights-based approach within risk-
informed development takes the side of
people who suffer injustice and inequality,
seeing them as active rights-holders who can
be empowered to change their situation.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 17

 APPROACH

Build power to
achieve risk-informed
development
Risk-informed development aims to address Gender inequality or discrimination once again their rights, power and the risk factors they
the fact that communities are at risk because can prevent certain groups accessing the face, development becomes risk-informed,
their human rights are being denied. resources they need to rebuild their lives. sustainable and resilient.
They don’t have access to, or equitable control Patriarchy and social exclusion continue to Building power for risk-informed development
over, the resources or rights they need to be reduce the collective or individual rights means:
resilient and lead a life of dignity. available.
• People have control over their own lives
When individuals’ rights are denied, their Those most at risk are therefore prone
experience of risk starts. What begins with to injustice, and left without the power • Power is diffused to communities most at
a loss of self-confidence or hope, leads to to address their denial of rights. They are risk
further displacement from the power needed not considered when designing policies • Skills and capacities are developed to build
to address their situation. addressing risks. self-confidence and make decisions that
Once displaced from resources or the It is essential that we strengthen and build improve life chances
decision-making processes connected to power as part of risk-informed development, • The anticipated futures of individuals and
them, it becomes easier for individuals at risk in order to address the fact that rights are groups - especially those most at risk -
to be criminalised, blamed, stigmatised, and denied. define and shape the world around them
eventually made invisible by those in authority (environmentally, economically, socially
If power is the ability to influence another’s
- who are meant to protect, respect and and systemically)
actions, then power imbalances that deny
promote their rights.
rights must be addressed.
The multiple denial of rights increases as
Risk-informed development therefore aims to
disasters strike. Risk drivers - including climate
primarily include them so that in considering
change, conflict, food and water insecurity,
forced displacement, gender inequality and
urbanisation - further deplete resources and
amplify the multiple and complex risks faced.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 18

 APPROACH

Put people at risk at the Prioritise local Build relationships with

centre of development perspectives of risk communities most at risk
People at risk are central to risk-informed Local considerations of risk are central to Building relationships is key in all we do. These
development. risk-informed development. With regards tips are a reminder of how to do this:
to risk-informed development planning, it is
It is essential that risk-informed development
important to bring coherence between actions • Listen to different perspectives, especially
is inclusive and this means involving those
that communities take up and the actions those most at risk
most at risk in the process. They are critical
already existing in the formal development • Connect with the people most at risk
to understanding and assessing the complex
planning frameworks, which are applicable or through one-on-one conversations to get
threats, risks, challenges, opportunities,
relevant to the community. to know them individually; when working
uncertainties and options faced by
communities most at risk. Civil society must Risk-informed development planning at the with children and young people connect
partner with them. community level has to leverage the provisions through schools or organisations, ensuring
of existing plans, policies and actions across child safeguarding processes are followed
The foundation of any engagement
sectors and scales. At the same time, it must • Consult and communicate with community
with communities is built on trust and
evolve to inform regional and national policies groups and individuals about the risk-
accountability. Building positive relationships
around disaster risk reduction, climate change informed development process to co-
with the community is a starting point. The
adaptation and sustainable development. design how and when communities want to
role of civil society is not in directing or
This bridges the gap between local, national carry out development actions
dictating to communities what to do, but in
and international plans and encourages
facilitating, building awareness and creating • Encourage ideas and suggestions from
localisation.
an enabling environment for community community members about how they want
members to take leadership roles in risk- to engage in risk-informed development
informed development planning. planning
• Consult with leaders and community
representatives before agreeing on the
format for carrying out and completing
each stage of the process to ensure a
good relationship with them

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 19

 APPROACH

Ensure inclusion in
planning
Ensure that all groups in a community or • Ask broad, open-ended questions (not • Be flexible in allowing participants to take
neighbourhood, especially the most at-risk, yes or no questions); the intention is breaks during workshop sessions, focus
are actively included and participate in every to encourage discussion between the group discussions or community forums
stage of the risk-informed development members and share ideas
• Facilitate and encourage informal and ice-
process in the following ways:
• Pay special attention to support the breaking sessions to enable diverse groups
• Identify the most at-risk groups in the participation of the most at-risk groups to work together and interact directly
community that civil society organisations when they are involved in conversations or
• Ensure participatory exercises are flexible
(CSOs) work with events with others
in schedule and conducted in places where
• Organise focus group discussions • Accommodate different language and all community members can comfortably
with specific at-risk groups to further communication methods to ensure and easily participate
understand their perspective; at-risk everyone understands and can contribute
groups could include women, people that to the conversation
identify as part of the LGBTQ+ community, • Ensure that all community members have
people living with disabilities, minority the opportunity to speak
groups, younger or older people, etc.
• Be culturally sensitive, especially when
• Ensure that workshops, meetings and working with diverse cultural groups
discussions are scheduled at times
• Pay special attention and design
appropriate to those most at risk, and
appropriate communication methods
repeated if necessary to ensure inclusion,
for those who need it (e.g. children,
and at times that maximise participation
youth, older people or people living with
disabilities)

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 20

 APPROACH

Ensure collaboration with

multiple stakeholders
Gender inclusion
Gender inequality arises from the expected Effective risk-informed development, whilst • Explore continued sponsorships with larger
roles of men and women in a society, which primarily includes people most at-risk, needs corporate social responsibility funders;
influences socio-economic status, the level of to involve a range of stakeholders. CSOs should ensure that community
agency, and the way men and women prepare representatives and leaders in charge of
To ensure strong collaboration:
for, react to, are impacted by, and recover risk-informed development planning are
from disasters. • Identify local partners for collaboration, involved in these discussions
Natural hazards are gender neutral but the for example: experts and academics from
impacts are not. Men and women, and boys the fields of geography, social sciences,
and girls face different levels of exposure natural sciences, development and health;
and vulnerability to natural hazards, driven by private sector philanthropists, prominent
gender relations and discrimination in society. local companies and industries; and local
Gender dynamics play a role in a wide range government units
of factors associated with resilience - from • Identify local institutions for collaboration
preparedness levels to access to coping during each of the stages, for example
mechanisms that can support recovery. educational, technical and local
We can build gender inclusion by ensuring: government agencies
• Include facilitators from already
• That women hold leadership positions
established community organisations (if
• That each stage and process of risk- present) to conduct the workshops or
informed development planning exercises
accommodates women’s time and
• Explore the scope of local funding partners
convenience
in sponsoring or supporting smaller
• Methods for meaningful participation and activities and requirements in the risk-
inclusion are incorporated informed development process

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 21

 CIVIL SOCIETY

The role of civil society

organisations in risk-
informed development

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 22

 CIVIL SOCIETY

The role of civil society organisations in risk-informed development

Facilitate and advocate

for localisation
Civil society organisations (CSOs) engage CSOs operating at national and regional levels • The integration of findings and outcomes
in local and national risk-informed planning can help drive the agenda of localisation. of local level risk-informed development
processes. While local-level development They can engage with national and regional plans into national and regional adaptation
planning aims to capture, understand, decision makers to facilitate, promote and plans, disaster management, mitigation
plan and manage local aspects of various advocate for: plans and development regulations, so as
sectors, the development agenda for each to resolve conflicts and to bring coherence
sector is determined by sectoral policies and • Policies and legislation that support
• Schemes and funding opportunities
investment decisions which are typically made community-led risk-informed development
to undertake community-led, risk
by national and state governments. planning processes
informed development planning process,
Risk information cuts across all sectors, and • Policies and legislation that orientate and implement specific actions and
by extension, the government departments, planning departments and agencies to interventions proposed by communities
ministries and private agencies associated support community-led risk-informed
with them. Development plans at national development planning
and regional levels can be sectoral or cross- • Policies and legislation that integrates
sectoral. community-led risk-informed development
Broadly speaking, the sectoral plans of a planning into other legal documents of
national or state government aim to bring planning (e.g. city development plans or
growth for a given sector, to cater for the master plans)
requirement of individuals and communities • Policies and legislation that integrates
(i.e. physical and social requirements in terms community-led risk informed development
of resources or service provision); generate planning into sectoral plans
employment and livelihood opportunities;
ensure the flow of money in the supply chain;
and generate revenue.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 23

 CIVIL SOCIETY

Practical steps for CSOs

Civil society organisation (CSOs) can • Get the necessary permissions for
take these practical steps to achieve their conducting the workshop at the venue
facilitating role in risk-informed development: (whether it is a town hall, school premises,
• Provide technical support and institutional or any other public open space like a
recognition of grassroot level activities market centre, town centre or village
around community-led, risk-informed meeting ground)
development planning processes • Ensure there is continued communication
• Provide access to national and sectoral with community members throughout risk-
data platforms and research materials informed development planning
(which local communities can use in their • Empower community representatives
development planning process) through capacity building and training
• Be prepared to provide additional throughout risk-informed development
information and be aware of important planning
current events, issues, and development- • Advocate for a risk-informed approach
related activities in and around the to development to national and regional
community decision makers (GNDR has published
an advocacy toolkit to help guide the
Advocate for a risk-
• Encourage community members to lead
various activities and exercises involved in advocacy planning process at the national informed approach
level)
risk-informed development planning to development to
• Utilise a public place, community hall
or classrooms in a local school (i.e.
national and regional
somewhere familiar and comfortable to decision makers.
community members, where ownership of
place already exists)

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 24

 PRINCIPLES

Guiding principles
of risk-informed
development

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 25

 PRINCIPLES

Guiding principles of risk-informed development

Five principles guide who is involved 1. Owned by communities 3. Inclusive

and how they participate in risk- most at risk
informed development. The inclusion of relevant and multiple
stakeholders - particularly marginalised
Recognition of community custodianship of
groups - for fair, equitable and effective
commons (i.e. cultural and natural resources
results.
accessible to all members of a society,
including natural materials such as air, water
and a habitable earth) by those who live there;
the recognition of communities most at risk
4. Gender transformative
to take part in decisions and development
processes that affect them. Actively examine, question and change rigid
gender norms and imbalances of power
that advantage boys and men over girls and
2. Participatory women.

Meaningful and engaging spaces for multiple

stakeholders to harness collective wisdom
5. Empowering
and capacities to make decisions together,
diagnose challenges and chart a course of Remove barriers (individual, societal,
action to resolve them. systemic) that hinder people - especially
those that are marginalised, denied rights or
most at risk - from taking control of their own
lives and the decisions that affect them.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 26

 PRINCIPLES

Six principles guide how the risk- 1. Localised 4. Evidence-based

informed development process is
approached and delivered. Adaptable to ensure communities most at An approach that involves making evidence-
risk have the capacity, information, linkages, based deductions and conclusions which
resources and power they need to decide are then tested and further studied to
how to strengthen their own resilience; this arrive at the best solution, while retaining
adaptation should be contextual and meet the perspectives and the interests of the
the requirements or unique conditions of a communities most at risk.
particular area.

5. Adaptive
2. Aspirational
Flexible to make changes when appropriate
Use imagined futures from individuals and and to not compromise risk-informed
groups themselves, especially those most at development (whether short term or long
risk, to define and shape the world around term).
them.

6. Result-oriented
3. Anticipatory
Ensure that the development vision is
Take proactive intervention based on translated into action and that these decisions
forecasts of predicted risks on the lives and and strategic actions show the expected
livelihoods of the most marginalised, or drivers results; this requires regular monitoring and
of development and change. management wherein all stakeholders involved
are accountable.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 27

 CHRISTINA ROSARIO DE OLIVEIRA

Brazil

“What can I do to improve the

place I love so much? Some
people will say the role of
women is to wash, iron, tidy and
cook. But no.
“There are many other
important roles within society,
within the community, that
need to be valued. One is what
we women do with the NUDEC
(local civil defence centres).”
Photo: Julia Lemos Lima/GNDR

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 28

 KEY PHASES

The three key phases

of risk-informed
development

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 29

 KEY PHASES

The three key phases of risk-informed development

The risk-informed development Phase I: Define (re-define)

planning process can be broken
down into three main phases, each Stage 1: Engage with communities Stage 3: Understand context and
with three stages. most at risk risks
The starting point is with communities most at There is a need for communities most at risk
risk themselves: seek their vision and ensure to interact with scientific knowledge and
their perspective is at the heart of all that is emerging global contexts in order to gain a
carried out. better understanding of the context-specific
risks and relationships, and therefore develop
Firstly, it is crucial to listen to them articulate
through informed analysis and choices. This
what is happening in their context. The
is achieved by gathering knowledge and
conversation should engage them with
data with the community most at risk and
knowledge of what is happening around
from other secondary sources. This stage
them - a wider perspective of the decisions
covers key aspects around context and risk
taken elsewhere or wider phenomenon - that
assessment and relationship mapping.
ultimately impacts their lives. From this, it is
possible to capture their aspirations for the
future.

Stage 2: Organise around the vision

of the community most at risk
Community members, civil society
organisations (CSOs) and other stakeholders
prepare and organise themselves to work
together for risk-informed development
planning.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 30

 KEY PHASES

Phase II: Assess and

anticipate
Stage 4: Risk prioritisation and Stage 6: Strategise with
development impact assessment communities most at risk
Community risk prioritisation enables At this stage, communities (facilitated by
communities to make decisions on what to CSOs) will be able to learn from examples
prioritise and what the key challenges are in and best practice, identify and agree on
addressing risks and building resilience. For necessary action, and make decisions around
this stage, various conditional and impact prevention, and mitigation and resilience
assessments are recommended to gain building. It is important that prioritisation by
a deeper understanding of complex risks the communities most at risk is incorporated
and their impacts on communities and the in the priorities of the wider communities. This
landscape they occupy. is arguably where the biggest challenge of It is important that
development lies.
prioritisation by the
Stage 5: Strategic foresight and communities most at
scenario planning
risk is incorporated in
This stage is about helping communities to
re-imagine their visions and goals based the priorities of the
on a better understanding of future trends
and emerging issues. It provides tools
wider communities. This
and methods to engage communities in is arguably where the
foreseeing future trends. Mega-trend analysis,
scenario imagining and back-casting the
biggest challenge of
community vision are the key components of development lies.
strategic foresight.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 31

 KEY PHASES

Phase III: Act and manage

Stage 7: Action with communities Stage 9: Repeat and strengthen
most at risk Risk-informed development planning is not
Implement the necessary actions and a one-time activity. Its success is anchored
interventions that communities have decided in sharing learning, strengthening action
upon. Different modes to implement the and revisiting the process to improve
actions and other aspects involved in realising development. This is because risks and risk
action (such as finding coherence with other drivers are dynamic and so is development
relevant projects, schemes and plans) need to and growth. CSOs and communities can
be considered. improve or expand the scale of their risk-
informed development planning process in the
next cycle based on insights gained by action
Stage 8: Accountability to and learning. GNDR hopes that through the
communities most at risk and success of a first risk-informed engagement,
communities are empowered to address more
learning with them complex issues, bigger risks or more powerful
Whilst documented as stage eight, barriers. As momentum builds
accountability to, and learning with,
communities most at risk should take place around what is taking
across the entire process, as well as at the end. place, it is hoped that
As momentum builds around what is taking
place, it is hoped that more stakeholders will more people will join the
join the process and that shared learning - via process and that shared
formal and informal review processes - can
lead to sustained progress. Accountability learning can lead to
processes should mobilise a responsible use sustained progress.
of power by duty bearers and stakeholder
responsible for development.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 32

 KEY PHASES

e II Phase I: Define (re-define)

P ha s • Stage 1: Engage with communities most
at risk
5 • Stage 2: Organise around the vision of the
community most at risk

4 • Stage 3: Understand context and risks

1
Phase II: Assess and
9 anticipate
6 • Stage 4: Risk prioritisation and
development impact assessment
2 3 • Stage 5: Strategic foresight and scenario
planning
Ph • Stage 6: Strategise with communities
as e most at risk
I
Phase III: Act and manage
7 8
III • Stage 7: Action with communities most at
s e risk
a
Ph • Stage 8: Accountability to communities
most at risk and learning with them
• Stage 9: Repeat and strengthen

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 33

 STAGE 1

Engage with
communities most
at risk

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 34

 STAGE 1

Engage with communities most at risk

This stage supports civil society Overview Visioning

organisations (CSOs) to initiate
conversations with community To achieve this stage civil society The visioning process aims to:
members to identify the most organisations should aim to carry out initial
• Strengthen relationships with communities
conversations with all demographic groups
at-risk and marginalised groups; - especially those most at risk. They should
or individuals most at risk
introduce the risk-informed listen to their experiences and initiate the • Share understanding of global phenomena
development planning process; and exploration of their vision for the future. and its influence on local contexts
consider with community members • Share understanding of rights, power,
how they want to engage. rights-holders and duty bearers
Aims
• Mobilise interest and engagement in risk-
The aim of this stage is to capture their informed development planning processes
perspectives and aspirations to understand • Mobilise community members for the next
their vision, and also understand their stages
apprehensions or concerns about the risks
• Draw out the aspirations and
they face. It is also important to know their
apprehensions of all community groups
understanding of rights and cultural norms.
• Enable communities to articulate and
translate visions into tangible and
achievable goals through individual and
collective action later

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 35

 STAGE 1

Key steps in this stage

• Familiarise community members with their 1. Identify key groups 3. Introduce global trends
role and their scope for determining their
Identifying those most at risk and local leaders Take time to discuss with community
future
and, crucially, building a relationship with them members their rights, responsibilities and the
• Provide a level platform and opportunity starts the risk-informed development process. roles of duty-bearers.
for all community members to voice their
Those most at risk may include, for example, Highlight global risk drivers, such as climate
aspirations and concerns (related to risks,
people that identify as part of the LGBTQ+ change, and how it may impact their context.
risk-drivers, as well as other issues)
community, people living with disabilities, Be creative in how this is achieved: drama,
• Encourage discussions to resolve conflicts minority groups due to their social or song, street art and other methods can gain
and to better understand each other and economic status, older people, and children attention and engagement more than formal
the place they live in and youth. meetings.
Make a special effort to communicate directly Briefly discuss the broader risk-informed
with women and women leaders. development planning framework and the
purpose of seeking their vision for change.

2. Prepare and mobilise

communities
Agree with community members on when and
how the visioning exercise can be carried out,
including the preferred format, date, time and
place. Plan and design the exercise.
Whilst civil society organisations might
organise and advertise the event, identified
community leaders or representatives of
civil society groups are encouraged to take
the lead in facilitating. Host the event within
existing, neutral community spaces such as a
school, community centre or town hall.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 36

 STAGE 1

4. Carry out the visioning exercise Translate vision to goals 6. Overview of the risk-informed
Visioning is the process by which a community Prompt the participants to come up with ways development planning stages
defines the future it wants. It should bring and ideas that can help translate their visions Once the above steps are completed,
forward the voice of people in the community to goals. If they want a particular aspiration introduce and explain the next stages of the
and it must be a platform for every community fulfilled, what can they do (individually and risk-informed development process with
member to express their aspirations for where as a community) over the next few months or special reference to co-creation.
they live. years to realise these aspirations?
This exercise will help evolve targeted Encourage them to also identify what the
outcomes and mobilise communities to work roadblocks are in achieving these aspirations
towards common aspirations. It can also
function as a platform for various groups
and goals. Additional resources
to share perspectives, communicate and
potentially resolve conflicts. This can be seen 5. Coming to an agreement Î Incorporating Visioning into
as the launch pad for the community-led risk- Comprehensive Planning by Anna Haines
informed development planning process. The purpose of this step is to find
commonalities that are mutually beneficial, yet Î Section 17 of Participatory Incremental
inclusive, with short- and long-term value to Urban Planning (edition for fast growing
Draw out individual and community vision
the community and its individuals. small cities by UN-Habitat)
The facilitators can invite every participant
(including and especially children, elderly The conversation should reflect on the
people, women and other marginalised outcomes of this vision exercise, with the
people) to say or write down their aspirations. facilitator seeking commonality between
participants as well as helping resolve
Consider splitting the event into focus group concerns or conflicts arising between ideas of
discussions to build trust and confidence what a joint vision might be for the community.
between different community members if
appropriate.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 37

 CORAZON BAJUYO CLARIN

Philipines

“It is very important that the

initiative of disability-inclusive
disaster risk reduction is led
by persons with disability. We
always advocate: nothing about
us without us.”

Photo: Jeremy Kruis/GNDR

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 38

 STAGE 2

Organise around the

vision of the community
most at risk

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 39

 STAGE 2

Organise around the vision of the community most at risk

This stage of risk-informed Overview

development planning involves
organising around the vision of the Time for the community to organise To achieve this stage, collaboration
community most at risk. Success is themselves to work together, connect established with communities most at risk
with existing organisations and initiate needs to be in place. In communities where
seen when communities most at risk communication about preparing and setting multiple civil society groups and organisations
lead the process. up mechanisms (communication, capacity already engage and operate, it is important to
building, leadership committees, knowledge also collaborate formally to facilitate the risk-
generation and gathering) to implement informed development planning process with
the risk-informed development planning is the community.
required.
Secondly, a primary asset of risk-informed
development planning is knowledge and
data about risks (in terms of hazards, risk-
drivers, vulnerability, resilience etc.), especially
local risks that directly and indirectly impact
communities.
This should also then indicate what
additional support or collaboration from
other stakeholders (like technical experts,
institutions, other organisations and agencies,
local government units, etc.) across the stages
of the risk-informed development process are
required.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 40

 STAGE 2

Aims
The aims of this stage of the process are to: • Initiate preparatory activities in creating
supporting mechanisms (such as
• Bring existing community representatives community organisations, data library,
and leaders to the forefront of the mechanisms for gathering data etc.);
process right from the beginning; forming speaking with community members and
community organisations is important for gathering secondary sources or openly
this, especially where other organisations available knowledge and data resources is
(such as groups delivering CBDRM fundamental in beginning to understand
together) do not exist complexities around risks and development
• Encourage and initiate leadership from
community groups most at risk to carry out
risk-informed development planning, by
creating space for them to take decisions
about their roles in the overall planning
process
• Create and identify collaboration
opportunities with various stakeholders
Encourage and initiate
• Prepare, co-create and adapt the details
of risk-informed development planning to leadership from
suit the community, for example putting community groups most
in place necessary supporting resources
or assets or mechanisms, so that the at risk to carry out risk-
community themselves can be the flag
bearers of the process
informed development
planning.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 41

 STAGE 2

Key steps in this stage

1. Risk-informed development task 2. Stakeholder collaboration 4. Quick risk estimation
force Next, initiate collaboration with other If, amongst all risk drivers, certain risk drivers
The first step is to initiate discussions for the stakeholders. Consider other stakeholders are more prominent or resonate more with
formation of a risk-informed development that could collaborate with the process. These the communities most at risk, take measures
task force composed of members from the groups could include other CSOs or groups to orientate and focus risk-informed
community. This taskforce should be gender from the area, private sector actors, media, development efforts accordingly.
balanced, include representatives of the community-elected leaders, academia, local
The quick risk estimation tool is a multi-
most at risk groups and be supported by civil researchers, and institutions for education,
stakeholder engagement process to establish
society organisations (CSOs). planning, development and technology, etc.
a common understanding of risk. The tool can
Consider formalising collaboration with these
Leverage on already existing community be used to identify and understand current
groups.
organisations, communication channels or and future risks, stresses, shocks and exposure
modes of operation within a given community threats to both human and physical assets.
or region is important, as well as the role of 3. Co-creation of process
the task force to mobilise the rest of the
community. Consider sub-groups with key Initiate detailed discussions with the 5. Co-design a data gathering plan
responsibilities, i.e. in research or in budgeting community to co-create and evolve the details
An agreement on how to gather data, when
roles, if there are many people willing to help of a risk-informed development planning
to gather data and who should be involved
coordinate the process. process that suits their context. Communities
in the data gathering process should be
most at risk themselves can be flag bearers
discussed and agreed with the community
of the process. They should be able to explain
members. If necessary, this can be a closed
the process, aligning it with their community
group discussion with those appointed by the
context and take broad decisions on how to
taskforce for the purpose.
carry out each stage.
Consider preparatory tasks, leadership roles
for different aspects, how to communicate
with and operate at the convenience of all
members, and outline what support is required
by CSOs.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 42

 STAGE 2

6. Co-create a data hub 7. Capacity strengthening 8. Wider communication

A data hub is a virtual or physical storage Strengthen capacity in maintaining a data Communicate with the rest of the community
point for relevant data which has been hub and a community-led risk monitoring members about the newly established data
collected with the communities most at risk mechanism. This is to ensure the data hub repository and data gathering method, to seek
or via secondary sources. They should be remains active, updated and information individual cooperation and contribution.
stored in an organised manner so that it can analysed is on a regular basis to highlight
be accessed at any time by the community changed or emerging risks. Ideally, it should be
members and civil society groups involved
in the process. If viable, explore scope for
managed by community members within the
locality.
Additional resources
collaboration with data management experts
To ensure this takes place, consider:
or local government data centres to develop Î Open Data Infrastructure for City
the data hub (Usually local governments have • Capacity strengthening of community Resilience: A roadmap showcase and guide
emergency operating centres which keep members to carry out the task
data). Î Cookbook on Institutionalising Sustainable
• Clarity about what information to gather CBDRM
There are four sets of relevant data that need
to be stored: • Clearly defining tasks and roles for Î Case studies on community-based
community members involved disaster risk management
• Local community data • Keeping a monthly record of the tasks
• Secondary data (which will be gathered taken up for risk monitoring
from open sources, local government units, • Continued tracking to capture time-based
studies and reports, experts, etc.) variations (seasonal, monthly etc.) and
• Observations on contextual aspects dynamically evolving conditions
of geophysical susceptibility to various
hazards
• Data calendars: monthly and annual data
calendars could be used to communicate
and inform the community about various
aspects of hazards, vulnerability and
building resilience

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 43

 STAGE 3

Understand context
and risks

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 44

 STAGE 3

Understand context and risks

Stage three involves contextualising Overview

risk-informed development
planning. That means gathering Links between various local, regional or Understanding contextual aspects of a
and generating relevant data or global factors, how these affect different community are foundational to understanding
people, communities, places and social or risks and risk impacts better. Therefore,
knowledge to understand how risk physical systems, guides what action to take. generating and gathering relevant data and
and resilience affect development in A participatory relationship mapping exercise knowledge should be in cognition of this
the community’s context. can help communities better understand context.
complex linkages.
Similarly, the knowledge gathered can
be examined against local aspects of
susceptibility to hazards and resilience
potential. This generates useful knowledge
which is essential for the next stage of
prioritising risks.
Various factors will all determine how
communities can identify risks and adapt
to build resilience through development
decisions. These include: the social make-
up; the socio-economic and socio-cultural
background; the physical environment;
governance structures of the larger
society; access to basic infrastructure; and
communities’ awareness of their rights.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 45

 STAGE 3

Aims Key steps in this stage

The aims of this stage are to: 1. Gather knowledge and data with Gathering secondary information from
communities at risk open sources is vital. As well as statistics or
• Generate relevant data around risks and forecasts for the area, successful efforts in
resilience, understanding context, as well A starting point might be to create a map of participatory development planning, risk-
as understand relationships between the area, dividing it into smaller parts based management and adaptation can also be
various factors and aspects that will on identifiable landmarks and assigning each helpful to learn from. This data should then
influence risks and resilience area to a person or group to facilitate the be organised into the data library or hub, as
knowledge gathering. planned for in stage two.
• Gather relevant data, information and
knowledge from various sources, based on A variety of participatory techniques can
the plan made in stage two be used to engage with residents of that
specific locality: transect walks, photographs, 2. Research documentation
• Mobilise and engage community members sketches/illustrations, diagrams and notes. Each group or person responsible for
to participate in gathering local data and The tips and tricks for mapping tool is gathering knowledge or data should update
knowledge recommended for this exercise, alongside the data hub, ideally within one week of
• Improve understanding of the widely used online resources such as transect completing their task and referring regularly
interdependence of factors linked to profile images from Google, freely available to the agreed plans and document storage
hazards and risk drivers web-based data platforms, and apps. process. The information gathered is a
Conducting focus group interviews, household knowledge resource for development planning
interviews and surveys allows data to be for years to come as the data hub stores
gathered with communities most at risk. this valuable information and knowledge for
Suggested questions can be found in our later use and analysis. Once baseline data is
Views from the Frontline methodology. established, initiate the monitoring of risks
Storytelling or anecdotes of local knowledge using the indicators of hazards and risk-
is just as important. Collect stories of best drivers.
practices and this will enrich the community’s
knowledge resource. Collect and gather
local knowledge, especially via focus group
discussions with community members most at
risk and different community stakeholders.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 46

 STAGE 3

3. Understand relationships 4. Contextualise factors linked to Communities displaced due to disasters and
between risks and impacts risks and resilience conflict refugees also often live in areas with
limited and unreliable resources. Communities
Once knowledge is gathered, communities This step is to examine the data and displaced due to conflicts, or who are not
can begin to analyse it. This will lead to a knowledge gathered against contextual citizens, may only have restricted rights,
better understanding of the common, as well aspects of geophysical susceptibility and unlike citizens of the country, until they are
as unique, contextual aspects and risks that resilience. normalised or integrated into the new system.
the communities currently face and/or could
Every community and the landscape they live All these conditions and context determine
face in the future.
in is unique. Here we focus on communities the risks that communities are exposed to
The relationship mapping exercise is a most at risk and living under various stressors and it will also limit their agency in building
collaborative exercise involving community - social, cultural, economical, political, resilience to, or adapting to avoid, these risks.
members to initiate thinking/understanding in environmental. These nuances are unique to each community,
terms of relationship between people, place which is why contextualising risks and
Whether people living in urban or rural
and systems, and their links to risk drivers. resilience are critical.
settings, dwellings in coastal areas or in
Experts or professionals in development
forests, are pastoralists or nomadic, there The local conditions of people, places and
planning, risks, disasters, socio-economics
are rights, risks, resources, knowledge and systems play an important role in determining
and environment should be involved.
solutions that make up their context. vulnerability. Similarly, natural landscapes
Human mobility leads to populations provide ecosystem services that enhance the
who move due to social, economic and resilience of any area. It is important to ensure
environmental reasons. Many lower that the data and observations gathered is
income groups move between villages and relevant to the context.
neighbouring urban areas. They encounter
constraints living in and navigating
vulnerable parts of the city as they seek new
opportunities.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 47

 STAGE 3

Additional resources
To examine and ensure that critical contextual Î Disaster Resilience Scorecard for Cities by Î Participatory Asset Mapping: A
aspects of vulnerability and local factors of UNDRR Community Research Lab Toolkit by
risks are considered, two checklists can be Advancement Project
referred to: Î Addressing Disaster Displacement in
Disaster Risk Reduction Policy and Î Community Mapping: A Tool for
• Contextual analysis of geophysical Practice: A Checklist by UNDRR Community Organisation by WaterAid
susceptibility to hazards
Î Gender Dimensions of Disaster Risk and Î UNDRR Asia-Pacific COVID-19 Brief:
• Reflective questions to examine resilience Resilience: Existing Evidence, 2021 by the Disaster-Responsive Social Protection
of people, place and systems International Bank for Reconstruction and
Development/The World Bank Î UNDRR Asia-Pacific COVID-19 Brief:
Leave No One Behind in Covid-19
Î Gender Dimensions of Disaster Risk and Prevention, Response and Recovery
Resilience
Î Tool Kit on Gender Equality Results and
Indicators
Î Gender analysis of conflict
Î Risk management and decision-making
in relation to sustainable development,
Chapter 7 of IPCC report 2021
Î Disability Inclusive Development Toolkit
Î Baseline Resilience Indicators for
Communities (BRIC) by University of
South Carolina

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 48

 PARANATI PATRA

India

“The industrial town of Paradip

is just 22 km from our locality.
Fifty percent of people living
in the community suffer from
respiratory and heart diseases.
Air pollution causes itching,
irritation, and discomfort in
eyes.
“Even the fruits and vegetables
we buy from the market
have chemicals. There is no
awareness programme on air
pollution. We would like to
Photo: Sarika Gulati/GNDR

know how we can reduce the

risk of air pollution and remain
healthy.”

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 49

 STAGE 4

Risk prioritisation and

development impact
assessment

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 50

 STAGE 4

Risk prioritisation and development impact assessment

Stage four of the risk-informed Overview Aims

developing planning involves
communities most at risk prioritising To achieve this stage, communities at risk Risk prioritising and development impact
risks and considering impact need to gain a strengthened understanding of assessments aims to:
the impacts of development and how it adds
assessments against their vision and to risks and vulnerabilities - as well as untangle • Critically analyse and assess risk and
goals. complexities around rights, risk, resilience and vulnerability factors that reduce resilience
capacity for adaptation. • Analyse impacts of development activities
This will support prioritising critical or (of the past, present and future) that are
complex/multiple risks in order to take directly relevant to the community and
focused decisions around development that locality
can improve their adaptation and resilience. • Understand the interplay of various
regional and local factors of risks,
especially disaster risk drivers, and analyse
the impacts and consequences of hazards
and risk drivers in the locality
• Critically analyse capacities and potential
for resilience building and adaptation by
identifying opportunities to mitigate risks
and its consequence
• Prioritise risk to be addressed based on
analysis, identifying key challenges in
addressing risks and building resilience

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 51

 STAGE 4

Key steps in this stage

• Delineate landscapes that are: hazard 1. Consolidating information 3. Set up a collaborative analysis
prone; ecologically sensitive; and suitable process
Scan the data hub or library for knowledge
and safe for development
and information on the locality, region or topic Analysis and impact assessments using
• Identify the gaps in basic rights, needs, which is being considered. Repeat research various participatory tools should ideally
amenities and capacities in order to activities as outlined in stage three, if there be collaborative with representatives of
address them based on priority, and make are any gaps in what is required. community members most at risk, civil society
decisions for sustainable development and groups, local government representatives and
adaptation technical experts. Invite those required to your
• Support communities most at risk, civil
2. Consultation with experts analysis event.
society groups and technical experts to Identify technical advisory support. Identify Collaboration may be explored through
effectively collaborate in their decision- local and regional institutions and/or experts technical institutions, or by developing
making, ensuring information captured in to assist in analysis and seek advice on proposals for accessing corporate social
the previous stages is utilised relevant data for carrying out analyses. responsibility, government, organisational or
global funds. In situations where collaboration
with technical experts is not feasible, training
of selected community members may be
explored.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 52

 STAGE 4

Additional resources
4. Participatory analysis Further information can be added to the Î Section 5.2, 5.3, 5.4 of Inclusive and
process through applying the radius of Sustainable Urban Planning: A guide for
Carry out participatory exercises to analyse
influence technique, calculating carrying Municipalities: Volume 2
the information collected around a few of
capacity and seeking indicators of
the above analysis methods. By using the Î Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study:
unsustainable practices.
data collected from the field and other open Carrying Capacity Analysis/Impact
sources in stage three various assessments Assessment Model
can be done. 5. Decision-making
Since the analysis methods for some of these Record the proceedings of this stage by
assessments is technical, design participatory documenting the analysis process and the
formats of analysis in collaboration with decisions made.
technical experts or ask them to present their
own findings.
Participatory analysis methods to prioritise
risks triggered by development impacts which
communities can take part are:

• SWOT analysis By using the data

• Development impact assessment collected from the field
(environmental, social and economic
impacts) and other open sources
• Overlay analysis to identify multi-risk areas in stage three various
• Land suitability analysis assessments can be
• Degradation and fragmentation of done.
resilience infrastructure analysis

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 53

 STAGE 5

Strategic foresight and

scenario planning

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 54

 STAGE 5

Strategic foresight and scenario planning

Exploring what is happening in Overview

the wider society and trying to
foresee the many different plausible Horizon scanning and recognising mega- To achieve this stage - and start influencing
futures from multiple emerging trends can help inform and capture new risk development - engage with communities
drivers and other external forces of change. most at risk to:
trends allows communities most It can also help capture the changing nature
at risk to shape their risk-informed of the six major risk drivers in the context of a • Draw out signals of change
development plans. country, region or cities. • Identify external trends in the wider society
The findings of participatory contingency • Identify relevant global phenomena
planning and its process allows for the
preparation of plans for various scenarios of • Examine the identified risk drivers and
hazards. Strategic foresights help capture emerging drivers of change
signals of change and mega-trends at a It is an opportunity for communities to look at
global level, and in particular detect trends their immediate and long-term development
with respect to the six primary risk drivers. priorities through the lens of these larger
Together these two techniques can vastly more global trends. Importantly, facilitating
improve insights for adaptation and future conversations that re-imagine visions and
proofing. goals in alignment with a better view and
understanding of multiple trends should take
place.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 55

 STAGE 5

Aims Key steps in this stage

Strategic foresight and scenario planning aims 1. Foresee the future exercise Mega-trends analysis
to:
Design a participatory group exercise for Exploring and reviewing large-scale
• Foresee how the community’s future could communities most at risk to foresee the changes in the present at the intersection of
look with respect to future trends and future. This can be done through foresight multiple policy domains, with complex and
external factors of influence - including the methods using multiple alternative plausible multidimensional impacts in the future.
six disaster risk drivers futures based on their usefulness in
• Re-imagine all possible risk scenarios developing robust, future-ready policy. Scenario planning
(with respect to hazards and communities’ It is different from forecasting: forecasting Developing multiple stories or images of how
vulnerabilities) under various future attempts to predict a single ‘correct’ version of the future could look to explore and learn from
conditions and trends (including the future based on evidence and probability. them in terms of implications for the present.
consequences for the locality and
community members) to take anticipatory However, strategic foresight understands
the future as an emerging entity that is Back-casting the vision for the community
action
only partially visible in the present, not a Developing an image of an ideal (or
predetermined destiny that can be fully known undesirable) future state and working
in advance (i.e. predicted). The intent is not to backwards to identify what steps to take (or
get the future right, but to expand and re- avoid).
frame the range of plausible developments
It should also involve, in collaboration with
that need to be taken into consideration.
relevant experts, presentations on signals
There are broadly four types of foresight of change in the community and wider
methods: region, along with mega-trends (including
the six drivers of risks which are global with
Horizon scanning local implications). Interactive discussion to
present these findings to communities should
Seeking and researching signals of change in
strengthen discussions around these multiple,
the present and their potential future impacts.
possible future scenarios.
Horizon scanning is the foundation of any
strategic foresight process. It can involve
desk research, expert surveys, and reviews of
existing futures literature.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 56

 STAGE 5

Additional resources
2. Long-term trends 3. Review decisions Î Toolkit on Futures and Foresights by
Aim to identify specific trends that the Stage four facilitated risk prioritisation and OECD Observatory of Public Sector
community thinks would affect them in decisions were made to focus on certain risk Innovation
the long run. Imagine how these trends factors, groups at risk or geographical areas.
could affect their basic needs, housing/ In this stage, the community should review this Î Foresight as a Strategic Long-Term
shelter, safety and security, livelihoods, jobs, process against any emerging knowledge to Planning Tool for Developing Countries by
connectivity and access to various resources. strengthen those decisions. UNDP
Discuss and imagine how the community Î Practical Foresight Guide, Chapter 1 –
Hold discussions to explore ways to prepare
vision and aspirations for the future will be Foresight
for all of these positive and negative trend-
influenced by these global and regional trends.
based scenarios. Discuss how communities
Examine and discuss if existing vulnerabilities Î Practical Foresight Guide Chapter 3 –
can re-adapt both their vision for the future
and risks (as identified in the earlier stages Methods
and existing practices (life and development
of analysis) will be influenced by these future
activities), to be prepared to deal with any of Î Game On: Foresight at Play with the
trends.
these future scenarios. United Nations

Examine and discuss if

existing vulnerabilities
and risks will be
influenced by these
future trends.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 57

 JOHN MPHAYA

Malawi

“They offered to build a weir

and a scheme so we could
irrigate our crops. I was involved
in the construction of the
scheme – mixing cement and
bringing construction stones.
“Both men and women took
part in the construction work
because this is something that
we had wanted for a long time.” Photo: Homeline Media/GNDR

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 58

 STAGE 6

Strategise with
communities most at risk

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 59

 STAGE 6

Strategise with communities most at risk

Alongside communities most at risk, Aims Key steps in this stage

it is important to consolidate the
decisions they have made to design Strategising for action aims to: 1. Major takeaways
appropriate and viable development Draw out key takeaways from stages one to
• Define and agree on the actions required
actions, strategies or interventions to enhance the resilience of people, places, five and participatory contingency planning (if
around development, that build a and infrastructure systems also underway).

sustainable and resilient future. The • Address gaps in basic rights, needs and
best course of action to address risk amenities 2. Actions and interventions
should be anchored in the mitigation • Collectively decide on adaptation actions Determine the necessary actions and
or adaptation of that risk. to reduce the impacts and consequences interventions to address various issues of the
of future risks, in order to build the present and future, and to drive sustainable
resilience and sustainable development of and resilient development. Consulting and
communities collaborating with development planners or
• Define appropriate anticipatory actions to expert organisations and institutions is useful
establish effective response and revival and essential, if viable.
mechanisms in possible risk scenarios Some of the well-known and successful
• Realise human and financial resources, strategies for strengthening resilience,
and other mechanisms, to enable and mitigating future risks, and adapting to risks
facilitate the realisation of these actions through development interventions include:
and strategies
Landscape and ecosystems
Resilience can be strengthened through
landscape infrastructure development and

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 60

 STAGE 6

ecosystem service enhancement. Examples Hazard specific interventions Life-cycle approaches

include blue-green infrastructure; buffer
These include: maintaining a protective buffer Support and facilitate life-cycle approaches
protection of landscape systems like river and
zone and a no-development zone; retro- while making decisions and choices around
natural drainage networks; wetland systems;
fitting or rehabilitating existing developments products, development decisions and even
and coastal buffers.
or homes in hazard-prone areas to safer areas; daily chores in every family. Often, most
and watershed management, redirection, marginalised and indigenous communities
Integrated watershed management and diversion of water to designed sinks or have unique and efficient methods of resource
Activities for integrated watershed detention ponds in flood-prone areas. management, living in sync with nature and
management are anchored in: the innovatively adapting to changes. Identify and
understanding of watersheds of a given area; Retrofitting support such practices.
drainage paths and their health; the soil and
Retro-fitting existing infrastructure, human-
environmental health of the watershed; social Entrepreneurial initiatives
occupied land and buildings to be resilient
and cultural practices and mechanisms that
and future proof to various risks, especially Explore with community members and
enable healthy livelihoods; and sustainable
increasing rainfall intensity, landslides, support entrepreneurial initiatives and
resource harvesting by communities within the
floods and storms. This can be achieved consider village saving and loan groups, or
watershed.
through actions such as: improving the community cooperatives.
capacity of drainage channels by creating
Sustainable and climate-appropriate vegetated buffers; detention ponds to divert Share local data
agricultural practices floodwaters; stabilising the soils on steep
Share local data with local government units
Examples of practices include: water terrains; and strengthening the structural
and regional and national agencies. This
efficiency; use of local and native species that stability of buildings.
can bring a positive focus through policies,
are drought and flood resistant; minimal use
or prompt sustainable, resilient and climate
of polluting synthetic fertilisers; agroforestry Safe zones
appropriate activities.
practices; bees and birds conservation and
Delineate or identify safe zones or areas that
protection practices; and organic farming.
are hazard and risk-free. This is especially
relevant in communities on the front lines
of risks. These areas can accommodate the
growth in future members of the community
and their activities.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 61

 STAGE 6

Strengthen capacities 4. Risk-informed development

Strengthen the capacities of community planning
members by investing in human resource Estimate the need for carrying out individual
development. Communities should be able to stages of risk-informed development planning
manage their own development through the and implementing the actions and strategic
risk-informed development planning process, interventions around resilient and sustainable
and take action or adopt practices in their development, risk mitigation and adaptation.
daily activities that build resilience.
The needs include:

3. Coherence • Financial support for implementing actions

or strategic interventions proposed
Ensure coherence between various policies,
schemes, plans, programmes, actors and • Human resources to implement actions
decision makers: • Institutional support, for example from
local government units, other regulatory
• Examine development plans, agencies of the government (sector
environmental regulation zones and rules, specific, national, regional or local
disaster management plans; review how agencies)
they apply to the community and how they Ensure coherence
connect to national policies, or policies of
other sectors between various
• Develop actions to strengthen horizontal policies, schemes, plans,
coherence between plans addressing
different risks or sectors, and vertical
programmes, actors and
coherence between local government and decision makers.
national plans
• Ensure actions selected align with existing
local and national policies and plans

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 62

 STAGE 6

5. Funding • For non-government funds, CSOs may 6. Monitoring mechanisms

explore corporate social responsibility
Identify funds from various financial modes Co-create a monitoring mechanism to
funds, or funds from local businesses who
to implement proposed actions/strategic monitor risk drivers, vulnerabilities, hazards
may directly or indirectly benefit from
interventions. and resilience with the community task force:
risk-informed development in the locality
• Take the community agenda and proposed and region; for this, organisations and • Design of the monitoring mechanism
strategies, actions and interventions communities have to bring out innovative must be collaborative and involve experts
to other decision-making stakeholders models to engage local businesses in disaster monitoring, forecasting and
(especially government departments, • Exploring in-situ funds generated via local management; agreement has to be
local government units, technical agencies cooperative and social enterprises based reached on who will take up the monitoring
and institutions, and private sector on grassroots economic organisation of tasks, frequency of monitoring, and the
organisations) community members resources required to develop a monitoring
mechanism within the community
• The roles of locally elected representatives
or local government representatives • Crowdsourcing data is an option to
are critical in supporting civil society continuously keep track of the conditions
organisations (CSOs) and community of communities and their habitats; this
members to access necessary method relies on data gathering mobile
funds; directly request government apps and websites which the public are
implementation of proposed actions and expected to use to upload data and
strategic interventions observations
• Local government units and
elected representatives can bridge
communications and access to
government funded plans that align with
the community agenda for risk-informed,
resilient and sustainable development; it
will be very useful to engage with elected
representatives and office holders

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 63

 STAGE 6

Additional resources
Î NbS Evidence Platform: Case studies and
evidence showing the effectiveness of
nature-based solutions
Î Evaluating the impact of nature-based
solutions: a summary for policy makers
- this reference toolkit illustrates various
nature-based solutions and their
effectiveness
Î Evaluating the impact of nature-based
solutions: a handbook for practitioners
The role of locally
Î Ecosystem-Based Disaster Risk Reduction:
Implementing Nature-based Solutions for elected representatives
Resilience is critical in supporting
Î Risk management and decision-making civil society
in relation to sustainable development -
Chapter 7 of IPCC report 2021 organisations and
Î International Workshop on Disaster
community members to
Resilient Infrastructure 2018 access necessary funds.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 64

 STAGE 7

Action with communities

most at risk

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 65

 STAGE 7

Action with communities most at risk

Stage seven of the risk-informed Overview Aims

development planning process
recommends necessary steps to To achieve this stage, it is critical to anchor Actions with communities most at risk aim to:
realise agreed actions - using the action, interventions and strategies in
sustainability, resilience building and • Realise human resources and capacities
most viable and effective modes of adaptation. required to realise action (both within and
action. beyond the community)
Steps should be taken to identify the most
viable and effective approach for each • Realise funds and financing mechanisms
agreed action, strategy or intervention. involving community members, via
Cooperation, partnerships and collaboration government schemes and other external
opportunities with other stakeholders and sources
decision makers are also necessary to begin • Formalise partnerships for long and short-
the implementation of actions. term action
Sourcing human resources and funds, finding • Formalise informal community
partnerships with other stakeholders and organisations - if the community agree;
aligning with local entrepreneurs is also this is often essential to access financial
required. support
• Strengthen the capacities of community
members most at risk, for implementation,
monitoring and management
• Support local entrepreneurs to undertake
selected actions or strategic interventions;
this may include supporting skills
development, capacity strengthening and
funding procurement

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 66

 STAGE 7

Key steps in this stage

The main task in this stage is figuring out Tactical urbanism Urban living labs
which mode of approach is best suited Tactical urbanism is “a city and citizen- Initiate urban living labs in collaboration with
for each action or strategic intervention led approach to neighbourhood building technical institutions that are particularly
proposed, in consultation with urban, spatial using short-term, low-cost, and scalable suited for urban engagement.
or development planning experts. interventions intended to create long-term
change”. Children and youth
1. Mode of action Mobilise children and youth to carry out
Temporal interventions
monitoring and documentation exercises. This
Discuss and agree the right mode of carrying
These are interventions that are not could be via schools or community groups
out, and realising, the agreed actions and
permanent but dynamic in nature i.e. the and events. Aware and motivated children can
strategies.
intervention may be appropriate for a specific bring great ideas.
Actions and strategic interventions can be season in the year, for few days a week, or
realised and implemented through various for certain hours of the day. This can be Innovation
modes. successfully applied in dynamic landscapes
Some recommended modes include: like floodplains of seasonal rivers, public Innovation where viable proposed strategies/
spaces, parks, streets or agricultural lands. actions or interventions may be highlighted
Pilot projects to seek from technical experts, or propose
Government funding to them, innovative ideas in connection with
Pilot projects can demonstrate the value communities most at risk.
of a specific action or project which can be Submit proposals to local, regional or
replicated or re-adapted later based on the national governments where the proposal
learning outcomes. aligns with the requirements or objectives of
government schemes in various sectors (e.g.
relevant agencies or departments across
various sectors like education, water supply,
agriculture etc.)

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 67

 STAGE 7

Additional resources
2. Action plan 3. Stakeholder engagement Î GEF SGP Project Proposal Template and
Guidelines by Global Environment Facility
An implementation or action plan should be Bring the local perspectives of communities
and UNDP
prepared by the risk-informed development to higher levels of government (e.g. city,
taskforce, in order to keep track and regional, state or national authorities), and Î Project management for change makers
operationalise the various actions agreed. It other stakeholders (e.g. relevant local private
should document roles and responsibilities to companies, institutions and organisations). Î Urban Ecosystem Design Lab
deliver the plan, and set timelines and budgets
While communicating with government Î Tools for project planning in community
for each action. It is recommended that you
departments, ensure that community development by Grassroots Collective
start with actions that can show immediate
members are represented directly. Share the
and evident results - this approach will help Î ParCitypatory website
community-led, risk-informed development
build momentum.
planning process undertaken, along with
the findings and action envisaged to seek
cooperation, funding or feedback on existing
policies. The GNDR advocacy toolkit sets out
methods to achieve this.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 68

 BARBRA BIRABWA

Uganda

“The rainwater enters our

houses and I have no solution
to address the problem.
“The floodwater recently came
into the house and covered my
child. I almost lost him.”

Photo: Jjumba Martin/GNDR

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 69

 STAGE 8

Accountability to
communities most at risk
and learning with them

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 70

 STAGE 8

Accountability to communities most at risk and learning with them

By enabling and building the Overview Aims

capacity of communities in
managing the outcomes and To achieve this stage, communities most at The aims of this accountability and learning
results of the actions, strategies risk need to hold to account duty bearers and stage are to:
other stakeholders perpetrating the denial of
and interventions agreed for risk- rights. • Ensure that the actions and interventions
informed development, greater have resulted in the desired positive
This allows them to realise their rights and
resilience is enabled for a more change or development gains; review
bring justice to any rights previously denied.
their effectiveness and how they might be
sustainable future. This is especially Holding to account other stakeholders in the changed or strengthened
true because risks and development planning process ensures they are supporting
• Monitor risks and risk drivers by keeping
factors are dynamic and evolve communities to update, adapt and implement
track of new data and knowledge that may
their plans. Shared learning is also vital at this
continuously. influence development and risks for the
stage.
community and locality
• Ensure that stakeholders and decision
makers are held accountable for their
responsibilities and there is open dialogue
around it
• Continue to learn via what is taking place
in the risk-informed development planning
process and via the monitoring of risks, risk
drivers and development

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 71

 STAGE 8

Key steps in this stage

1. Agree responsibilities 3. Social audits 4. Review actions
Together with the planning leadership Strengthen the capacity of communities most Review actions being undertaken as agreed in
committee and community taskforce, at risk to conduct social audits to understand stage seven. This includes:
discuss and agree responsibilities within the effectiveness and success of:
the community leadership and members to • Monitor monthly and yearly targets and
collaboratively participate in accountability Community engagement and leadership the schedule of activities for each of
and learning activities as actions, strategies the project or strategic interventions
Refer to the 11 success factors for proposed, as set by communities most at
and interventions are realised.
community-based disaster risk management risk
in the CBDRM Cookbook to examine
the effectiveness of the risk-informed • Devise a method to address roadblocks
2. Identify accountable that may emerge and facilitate inclusive
development planning, especially
stakeholders characteristics of sustainability and feedback
Identify decision makers and accountable institutionalisation. • Set up a community taskforce for
stakeholders (i.e. individuals, institutions, accountability and learning who can
government agencies and departments, local Coherence oversee this stage - it should be gender-
government units, etc.) within and outside the balanced and representative of the
Refer to the 19 key ingredients for successful
community who should be involved. community most at risk
coherence in the Coherence Cookbook to
evaluate the risk-informed development • Support capacity strengthening as needed
planning process and its outcomes with
respect to other sectoral or local, regional,
national and global agenda on risk informed,
resilient and sustainable development.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 72

 STAGE 8

Additional resources
Î Social audit
Î Economic Literacy and Budget
Accountability Groups
Î Gantt charts: a visual representation
that provides an instant overview of the
status of a project; it outlines all activities
involved in a project against a timescale

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 73

 STAGE 9

Repeat and strengthen

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 74

 STAGE 9

Repeat and strengthen

Stage nine involves repeating and Overview How to achieve this stage
strengthening the previous stages
of the risk-informed development It is not a one-off process. Everything within To achieve this stage, go back and revisit
planning process. and outside the community is always evolving any of the stages to respond to unforeseen
and dynamic, be it socio-economic, socio- factors, risk drivers (newly realised or pre-
cultural, environment or population changes. existing) and development drivers.
It is critical that we reflect on how to revisit the The value of risk-informed development is
risk-informed development planning stages that it allows us to add in new ideas or bring
to integrate new and dynamic challenges more clarity to the process in a systematic
that emerge over time and expand the work manner without losing the spirit and objective
as more people come on board and more of each stage.
complex risks are addressed.
If necessary, return to a former stage rather
than attempting to complete all stages if
something has been missed, or could be
added, to improve the overall process. The
success of the risk-informed development
relies on adaptiveness.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 75

 STAGE 9

Key questions to ask

When all eight stages are complete,
• What have we achieved? What have we
communities most at risk should have gained a
missed or could improve on? What have we
good understanding of their:
learnt and are there new things to add?
• Scope to drive risk-informed development • Where do we go next? When should we
for themselves revisit (any of) the stages?
• Power to make or influence decisions • What findings from the community-led
• Capacity to actively participate in risk-informed development process can
decisions about their future inform policies, plans and regulations at
national or regional levels?
• What value are we seeing in the risk-
informed development process? How can
we capitalise on this value?
• Are communities most at risk more
aware of their rights? Are they more
empowered? Are they aware of their role
in deciding their future and risk-informed The value of risk-
development in their community? What informed development
more can be done?
is that it allows us to
add in new ideas or
bring more clarity to the
process.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 76

 T
TOOL 1

From vision to goals

template

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 77

 TOOL 1

From vision to goals template

This sample template can be used Results from different focus groups should Long-term goals should cover the next 1-2
be compared by the community members years or longer, depending on the response
for translating your vision into goals involved to seek agreement on joint goals from the community.
in a participatory exercise. It can be and move forward to later stages of the risk-
An editable Microsoft Word version of this
completed individually and then as a informed development planning process.
template is available for download on the
focus group. Short-term goals should cover the next GNDR website.
few months and for the year, and include
things that require immediate attention, be it Î DOWNLOAD TEMPLATE
aspirations, needs or concerns.

Short-term goals Long-term goals

What can I do to realise this vision or 1. 1.

aspiration? 2. 2.
3. 3.

What can we as a community do to 1. 1.

realise this vision or aspiration? 2. 2.
3. 3.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 78

 T
TOOL 2

Checklist on what data

to gather and how to
record it

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 79

 TOOL 2

Checklist on what data to gather and how to record it

This sample template can be used Data sources

to guide your data-gathering in • SS: Secondary open source
stage two. Capture all of the data
• PS: Primary source (comprising of
checklist information in maps, apart community observations/mapping and
from textual information. photo documentation)
• HI: Household interviews
• FGI: Focus group interviews

Word version
An editable Microsoft Word version of this
template is available for download on the
GNDR website.

Î DOWNLOAD TEMPLATE

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 80

 TOOL 2

Data checklist Data Who is How is data By Where is it

source responsible? collected? when? stored?

1. Geography and location

1.1 Where is the neighbourhood/village located with respect to the SS + PS
surrounding area? Locate the neighbourhood or village on the map,
marking out rough distances from surrounding landmarks (like a
highway, major canal, or other land features), and other villages,
neighbourhoods and towns. If your neighbourhood is within a large
city use a map of the city to mark out your neighbourhood within it.

1.2 What are the major land features, landmarks in and around the SS + PS
neighbourhood? Identify and locate the following on the map of
the village: hills, valleys, mountains, beach, streams, rivers, lakes,
wetlands, forests, meadows, grasslands, orchards, springs, geysers or
any other such features.

2. People, culture and heritage

2.1 Demographic data: total population of your village or SS + HI
neighbourhood and type of livelihoods of the community members.

2.2 What and where are the historic areas of heritage and cultural PS
value to the community, the region, or the country, in your locality?

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 81

 TOOL 2

Data checklist Data Who is How is data By Where is it

source responsible? collected? when? stored?

3. Economic activities and financial security

3.1 What are the major economic activities of the community HI
members? Which of these economic and employment generating
units and companies are owned by the local community?

3.2 Do community members have financial security during HI

employment or loss of livelihood? Do the women, elderly or orphaned
members of the community have any mechanisms for financial
security and protection? If so, what?

4. Environment, ecology and natural resources

4.1 What are the environmental issues and where are these issues PS + SS
observed in your community? (e.g. air pollution, water pollution, + FGI*
degradation of water bodies, poor waste disposal, biodiversity
loss, and loss of - or disappearing - forest and green spaces.) If
possible, simple water quality testing tools can also be carried during
community surveys.

4.2 What are the major natural resources in and around your PS + SS
community or neighbourhood (e.g. trees, forests, rivers, ponds, + FGI
wetlands, fisheries, springs, fertile soils, etc.)?

* With local ecologists, environmental organisations, or technical institutes, etc.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 82

 TOOL 2

Data checklist Data Who is How is data By Where is it

source responsible? collected? when? stored?

5. Soil and geology

5.1 What are the soil types and how are these soil types distributed in PS + SS
your neighbourhood and village? + FGI*
Identify areas with fertile soils.
Identify local knowledge and techniques associated with soil
management practices, related to agriculture, to prevent erosion.

5.2 Which are the geologically significant areas (e.g. areas which had PS + SS
landslides, areas with springs, hard rock beds, thin soil etc.)? + FGI

6. Land and landscape

6.1 What are the different land uses and land-based activities PS + SS
observed across the area of the neighbourhood or village? What are + FGI**
the different types of land cover or landscapes in your locality?
Land cover or landscapes types include: barren lands, rocky outcrops,
fertile floodplains, wetlands, mangroves, deserts, sandy beaches. It
will be useful to identify these via secondary data as well as verify
them on the ground during community observations or exercises.

* With local farmers, environmental organisations, or technical institutes, etc.

**With local government units, municipality, development authorities, landscape experts or subject matter experts.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 83

 TOOL 2

Data checklist Data Who is How is data By Where is it

source responsible? collected? when? stored?

7. Housing and housing security

7.1 How are the structures built, especially the houses distributed PS + SS
on the land? How densely occupied is each household? What is the
distance between each house?

7.2 Are there homeless people in the community? Why are FGI* +
they homeless and do they have any shelter facilities in the SS
neighbourhood or village?

7.3 How safe are the built structures? How many buildings and homes HI**
are not safe in terms of structural safety, sanitary conditions, etc.?
Which structures require repair and maintenance?

8. Accessibility and condition of infrastructure, amenities

and transport facilities
8.1 Accessibility of households to basic amenities, water sources, PS + HI
public transport, public toilets, electricity and power sources: locate
these public amenities on the map.

8.2 Condition of existing basic amenities, water sources, public PS + HI

transport, public toilets, electricity and power sources etc.

* With local government units.

**Plus mapping and locating unsafe structures.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 84

 TOOL 2

Data checklist Data Who is How is data By Where is it

source responsible? collected? when? stored?

9. Hazards and areas that are susceptible to hazards (include

predicted or projected data, and historical data)
9.1 Depending on the geographic location, collect information on SS
hazards and areas susceptible to hazards within the locality and
region.

9.2 Gather spatial data and maps on areas prone to specific hazards SS + PS
(this information can be captured from various secondary sources).

9.3 Gather local information and knowledge about historical events PS +

and hazards in the past and how communities adapted to those FGI
events.

10. Institutions and organisations

10.1 List all relevant local and regional institutions, organisations and PS + SS
agencies (e.g. public, private, government, non-governmental, formal
and informal across various sectors including education, agriculture,
infrastructure, environment etc.) along with basic information about
their area of work. This information is useful to identify appropriate
collaborators at various stages of risk-informed development
planning.

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 T
TOOL 3

Contextual analysis
of geophysical
susceptibility to
hazards

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 86

 TOOL 3

Contextual analysis of geophysical susceptibility to hazards

Use this tool to check if the Overview Word version

communities concerned are living Certain conditions and contexts can cause An editable Microsoft Word version of this
in contexts or conditions that are specific hazards. Look for these conditions template is available for download on the
to determine if the community concerned is GNDR website.
susceptible to various hazards. prone to the hazards corresponding to these
conditions. Î DOWNLOAD TEMPLATE
Two tables are provided:

• Table 1 shows hazards that are either

natural or triggered by climate change
• Table 2 shows hazards that are triggered
by human activity

The list of hazards is illustrative and not

exhaustive.
The geographic determinants of susceptibility
to hazards could be mapped or located with
reference the settlement.
Local indicators of susceptibility to hazards
may be related to people, place, physical
factors, and systems.

GNDR RISK-INFORMED DEVELOPMENT GUIDE 87

 TOOL 3

Table 1: Hazards that are either natural or triggered

by climate change

Hazard Geographic determinants of susceptibility Local indicators of susceptibility to

to hazards hazards

Earthquakes and/or tremors • Presence of fault lines in the locality and in the • Soil instability (frequent erosions, lands that are
region around the community, village or town barren)
• Are there dams or mining explosion activities in • Buildings and constructions that are not seismic
areas with a history of earthquakes and seismic appropriate or resistant
activities?
• No/poor early warning systems
• Presence of volcanic craters

Landslides • Mountainous landscapes and valley regions • Barren lands, fallow agricultural landscapes,
soils with high water holding capacity and
shallow soils

Flooding (river flooding) • Communities living in proximity to large river • Valley regions and drainage areas of the river
and river systems, especially in floodplains
• Communities living in proximity to rivers with
increasing trends of rainfall (rainfall duration and
intensity) in its basin

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 TOOL 3

Hazard Geographic determinants of susceptibility Local indicators of susceptibility to

to hazards hazards

Flooding (urban flooding) • Older historic areas within the city (as these • Areas in close proximity to canals and storm
typically become low lying areas as the city water drains or rivers and rivulets
expands around it and also because these areas
• Areas with older drainage and sewerage
have older and degraded drainage systems)
systems and areas which do not have drainage
• Areas which have organically developed (i.e. systems in place
unplanned) within the city
• Areas in proximity to polluted landscapes and
• Peri-urban areas (areas that are lying towards drains that are clogged with solid waste
the edges of the city administrative areas)

Volcanic eruptions • Landscapes with previous history of volcanic • Areas lying in proximity to active and dormant
eruptions and volcanic activities (refer to fissures.
historic data from data library)
• Valley areas in volcanic landscapes

Cyclones and tsunamis • Coastal regions and island regions • Coastal belts that do not have mangroves or
coral reefs
• Coastal belts that have narrow deltas
• No/poor early warning systems or forecast
models

Wildfires • Regions with deciduous forests • Deciduous landscapes with high lightning
activities and thunderstorms

Heat waves • Increased frequency of extreme daily maximum • Areas with urban heat island effects
temperatures
• Areas with sparse tree canopy or tree cover

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Hazard Geographic determinants of susceptibility Local indicators of susceptibility to

to hazards hazards

Drought • Deserts, regions with low rainfall and high • Barren landscapes
evapotranspiration
• Areas with seasonal water bodies

Cloudburst • Mountainous landscapes and valley regions • Areas lying in close proximity to rivers
below

Glacier outburst • Mountainous landscapes and valley regions • Observed trend of higher daily temperatures in
below high altitudes
• Blasting and mining activities in close proximity
to glaciers

Insects swarming farmlands • Global and especially linked to climatic changes • Large swarms of insects migrating across
in regions regions (farmlands and agricultural lands are
most at risk and susceptible)

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Table 2: Hazards that are human triggered

Hazard Local indicators of susceptibility to hazards

Health crisis related to an infectious disease • Poor health and starving population
• Absence of robust primary health centres and network of higher-order medical facilities

Fire and explosions • Unregulated and unsafe chemical industries, fire-cracker making industries
• Unregulated, unsafe or poorly maintained gas pipelines or electricity grids

Industrial hazards (air poisoning/pollution) • Proximity of hazardous industries or nuclear power plants to human settlements

Industrial hazards (water poisoning/pollution, • Proximity of hazardous industries or unscientific landfill sites to water bodies or regions
radiation) with high water table

Industrial hazards (soil/land pollution) • Agricultural belts with heavy fertiliser or pesticide usage
• Unscientific landfill sites and waste dumping grounds

Dam break • Blasting and mining activities near dams

• Dams located near fault lines and in earthquake prone regions
• High erosion rates in the catchment region of the dam

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TOOL 4

Relationship mapping
exercise

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Relationship mapping exercise

This relationship mapping exercise is Overview Preparation

designed as a collaborative exercise This exercise has the potential to educate Before initiating this exercise, you should:
involving community members communities about the complexity,
interdependencies and linkages between 1. Present and explain the findings of the
and aims to initiate thinking and people, place/land and systems (natural and visioning workshop
understanding of the relationships human made) - if conducted in a participatory 2. Present work done so far under stages
between people, a place and format. two, three and four of risk-informed
systems. The civil society organisation may bring in development planning
experts (or professionals in the community) 3. Explain the concept of relationship
with experience in development planning, mapping and its purpose to the
risks, disasters, socio-economics or participating community members
environment as observers or as consultants to
collaborate in this exercise.
An example of a relationship mapping exercise
is described below with the objective of
understanding factors linked to hazards and
risk drivers, as well as their impacts.
This exercise can be run as a workshop or a
small group exercise.

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How to conduct the relationship 6. Ask each group to deliberate and list 10. Display this grouping on the floor or on
mapping exercise answers to the question on the back of the wall for everyone to see and discuss
the cue card
11. Conclude and capture the proceedings of
1. Randomly divide the participants into 7. On a large classroom board or on the the group exercise
groups floor, write down each of the hazards and
2. Make a list of all hazards and risk-drivers risk drivers discussed and place all the cue
that the community is facing (ask cards around each of the hazards and risk-
participants and write them on the board; drivers that have been taken up Additional resources
the facilitator can add any other threats 8. Ask all the participants to take time to go Î Relationship mapping by CIToolkit
or hazards that are not mentioned but are through all the cue cards around each risk
relevant to the community or region) driver
3. Assign one or two hazards/risk drivers to 9. Ask a few of the participants to rearrange
each group all the cue cards based on the titles:
4. Share a set of four cue cards with each • Group the cue cards on people affected
group titled: People, Place, Resource and by all the listed hazards/risk drivers
Infrastructure/Systems for each hazard/
risk driver; use a cue card set of one • Group cue cards on places/areas/
colour for each hazard/risk driver (i.e, regions and resources affected by
each hazard or risk driver discussed will the various hazards/risk drivers. Pin
have a pre-assigned cue card colour) up a large base map (A1 or A0 size) of
the village/neighbourhood and map/
5. The question for deliberation is: What colour the impacted area on the base
are the impacts and/or consequences of map of the neighbourhood/village.
hazards and risk drivers on people, place/ Use coloured pencils assigned to each
resource, and infrastructure/systems? hazard to draw/colour impacted areas
(This question has to be discussed for
each of the hazards or risk drivers that • Group cue cards on infrastructure
each group is assigned) affected by hazards/risk drivers
• Group all cue cards on systems (social/
economic/cultural/democratic systems
etc.) affected by hazards/risk drivers

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TOOL 5

Reflective questions on
the resilience of people,
place and systems

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Reflective questions on the resilience of people, place and systems

This checklist of questions can be Communities Specific groups and individuals

used during stage three of the risk- • Can people access information about • Are the special needs of vulnerable groups
informed development planning specific hazards that habitats are addressed by community organisations,
process. It can be used together vulnerable to? local governments or other decision
with the relationship mapping makers (e.g. persons with disabilities,
• Are they aware of personal safety
economically marginalised, socially
exercise. measures to be taken for each type of
marginalised, elderly, women and children -
hazard event?
especially orphans)?
• Are they aware about housing and
• Are there special directives to improve the
necessary structural safety to the hazard?
resilience of these special groups?
• Do they know if their homes fall in hazard
• Are formal development plans sensitive
zones?
to the special needs of marginalised and
vulnerable groups?
Financial security
Consider the financial security of: Health of natural environment
• Families via employment or livelihood • Are natural environments in and around
security the community polluted, fragmented or
• Families via social security schemes degrading? Are they near pristine?

• Micro and small-scale industries via • Does urbanisation, agriculture and

schemes and support mechanisms real estate cause conversion of natural
landscapes?

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• Are communities benefiting from the Accountability

natural resources in the area? Are
livelihoods dependent on these natural • Transparency and accessibility to
resources secure? information about government spending
and use of public funds
Local government
Financial support
• Do local government units support
communities with response-rehabilitate- • Are financial or livelihood support schemes
recover-rebuild mechanisms? by the local government units and national
governments available for the marginalised
groups and communities?
Local development plans
Do the local area development plans and local
government institutions: Infrastructure

• Identify local vulnerable and hazard prone • Are basic infrastructure facilities available
areas in the locality? and provided by the government (e.g.
coverage of water supply, sewage and
• Take up mitigative measures to address drainage infrastructure - especially if in
these physical risks? cities; access to community amenities)?
• Invest and support in establishing
mechanisms to strengthen local responses
to emergencies?
• Review the vulnerability of place, people
and systems and propose measures to
mitigate and re-adapt to new risks?
• Have contingency plans which are
reviewed and revised regularly with
evolving risks?

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TOOL 6

Risk-informed
development analysis
options

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Risk-informed development analysis options

This tool can be used during Development impact assessment Conduct an exercise to make the community
members aware of the overall impact of
stage four of the risk-informed A development impact assessment covers development, risk drivers and risk factors
development planning process. environmental, social and economic impacts. associated with various physical and non-
It specifically examines the impacts of physical hazards.
development activities (e.g. mega projects Collaborate with local experts (e.g. EIA and
and land transformation via urbanisation). SIA experts and environmental consultants)
Dam construction, mining, blasting, high-ways and development authorities (e.g. local
and transport networks are examples of mega government bodies).
projects that can cause considerable - and
many times - irreversible environmental, social
and economic damage to communities and Overlay analysis
landscapes. An overlay analysis can help identify areas
Undertake an environmental, social and with multiple hazards. Spatial relationships
economic impact assessment for the local can be mapped through the process of spatial
area with respect to all possible development overlay. Spatial overlay is accomplished by
interventions including mega projects. joining and viewing together separate spatial
data sets (or maps) that share all or part of
In cases where project-specific impact
the same area.
assessment studies are already available,
civil society organisations can support the Individual hazard maps of the neighbourhood,
community members in sharing the findings which are printed on transparent sheets, can
from these studies with the objective of be placed one over the other to delineate
examining the relevance of those studies to and identify areas with multiple hazards (i.e.
the community. overlapping hazards). The graphic overlay
method is the most viable overlay analysis to
work together with community members.

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Land suitability analysis Degradation and fragmentation of how these landscapes and natural systems
resilience infrastructure have transformed over time.
This type of spatial analysis can help identify
lands that are most appropriate/suitable for This covers natural systems like drainage The above findings can be documented in
various types of activities. systems, wetland systems and green networks. maps. If basic maps are available, a simple
overlay analysis between a map of buildings
It can be derived by deducing vulnerable The primary resilience infrastructure are the and development activities, and a historical
lands, hazard-prone areas and environmentally natural landscape systems, as they have the map of natural landscape networks and
important or ecologically sensitive landscapes intrinsic ability to adapt because they have natural waterways (bodies and drainage),
from the larger map of the area. self-regulating mechanisms embedded in can help identify points and areas where
Another example of suitability analysis is land their systems. the natural systems have been destroyed or
suitability for agriculture, which has to be Mangroves are an important resilience fragmented.
derived based on a soil fertility spatial map infrastructure against coastal inundations
showing water availability for irrigation. and tidal forces. Natural drainage paths and
networks are critical in preventing flooding Radius of influence technique
The key here is to identify all important
physical and non-physical factors that and water-logging as they are a result of the Pollution is another major cause of
determine the suitability of land for any terrain. infrastructure degradation and the poor
particular activity. Forests and wetlands are natural sinks and resilience of infrastructure. Areas of
all of them provide ecosystem services degradation from pollution and other factors
that are critical for resilience. For these can be assessed using radius of influence
systems to function well, structural integrity method.
is fundamental. Fragmentation of these This can be done by locating the sources
networks (via construction activities, road of pollution with respect to the resilience
ways, etc.) harms the performance of these infrastructure systems/networks (natural
natural resilience systems. landscapes). If pollution sources are in close
The most effective method is to carry out proximity to these natural resilience systems,
a field exercise with community members then they are prone to degradation. Both of
to physically identify them using the these assessments can be conducted as a
community’s local and historic knowledge of group exercise involving community members.

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Carrying capacity Indicators of high emissions and

unsustainable practices
Carrying capacity can be calculated for
a given area with respect to an available
These indicators can
Dependency on private vehicles due to
resource against the demand for it. If the inaccessible public transport, poor walkability, be used to examine
availability of the natural resource within
a given area is lower than the demand/
high dependency on non-local products, sustainable and
cultivation of exotic species, water-intensive
requirement then it increases dependency on agriculture and disappearing local biodiversity unsustainable practices
resources outside the area and thus beyond
the natural carrying capacity of the area.
are evident indicators of unsustainable
practices.
at household level,
This can help make informed policy decisions These indicators can be used to examine
community level or city
on matters like resource provisioning or even sustainable and unsustainable practices at level.
utilising under-utilised local resources. household level, community level or city level.
Making communities aware of these indicators
is critical to ensure accountability to all
concerned stakeholders.
It is useful for communities to brainstorm and
make a list of these indicators for themselves
based on their lifestyle and local conditions.
This will help them shift and evolve their own
innovative and sustainable practices that are
most suited to them.

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TOOL 7

SWOT analysis

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SWOT analysis

Strengths, weaknesses, How to do a SWOT analysis Groups should then list external threats and
opportunities. This should be related to the
opportunities and threats (SWOT) To complete a SWOT analysis, groups wider environment, or stakeholders and duty
can be analysed to prioritise risks to should begin by listing internal strengths and bearers who are not directly involved in the
weaknesses. These can be related to their
be addressed in a participatory way. people (social, economic and cultural factors),
emerging process.
place (physical environment, ecosystem Information from other sources, such as
services factors) and systems (institutions, knowledge gathered by other tools in the
mechanisms, political/governance factors) risk-informed development process, can be
context. utilised.
It should relate to those who have organised Answers can be presented for everyone to see
themselves to complete risk-informed in a large table such as the one shown on the
development planning, and those taking part next page.
(or represented) in the SWOT exercise.

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To further analyse the results and make

Strengths Opportunities strategic decisions on which risks to be
addressed as a priority in future actions, ask
1. 1. the following questions:
2. 2.
• What strategies will use identified
3. 3. strengths to maximise opportunities?
• What strategies will use identified
Weaknesses Threats strengths to minimise threats?
• What strategies will minimise weaknesses
1. 1.
by taking advantage of opportunities?
2. 2.
• What strategies will minimise weakness
3. 3. and avoid threat?

Answers can be presented for everyone to see

in a large table such as the example on the
next page.
Word version The information provided can be referred to
An editable Microsoft Word version of this as the group moves to other stages of the
table and the following one is available for risk-informed development process.
download on the GNDR website.

Î DOWNLOAD TEMPLATE

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External stakeholder opportunities External stakeholder threats

1. 1.
2. 2.
3. 3.

Internal stakeholder strengths Strategies that use strengths to Strategies that use strengths to
1. maximise opportunities minimise threats
2. 1. 1.

3. 2. 2.
3. 3.

Internal stakeholder weaknesses Strategies that minimise weaknesses to Strategies that minimise weaknesses
1. make use of opportunities and avoid threats
2. 1. 1.

3. 2. 2.
3. 3.

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Risk-Informed Development Guide
First published 2022
© Global Network of Civil Society Organisations for Disaster Reduction (GNDR)
Registered charity no. 1141471
Company limited by guarantee, registered in England and Wales no. 07374358
8 Waldegrave Road
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