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DPP-Applied Math-12-Probability

This document outlines the periodic test IV for Applied Mathematics for Class XI at Delhi Public School, Hapur, for the session 2024-25. It includes various probability-related questions, with a total of 12 questions covering different aspects of probability theory. The test is designed to assess students' understanding of concepts such as conditional probability, independence of events, and expected value.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
47 views2 pages

DPP-Applied Math-12-Probability

This document outlines the periodic test IV for Applied Mathematics for Class XI at Delhi Public School, Hapur, for the session 2024-25. It includes various probability-related questions, with a total of 12 questions covering different aspects of probability theory. The test is designed to assess students' understanding of concepts such as conditional probability, independence of events, and expected value.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Delhi Public School, Hapur

Session 2024-25
Periodic Test - IV
Subject – Applied Mathematics (241)
Class - XI
Time: 1 Hour Max. Marks: 25
General Instructions:
1. All the questions are compulsory.
2. Marks have been written in front of each question.
𝟏 [1]
1. If P(A) = , P(B) = 0, then P(A|B) is:
𝟐

a) 0 b) not defined 𝟏 d) 1
c) 𝟐
2. If A and B are events such that P(A|B) = P(B|A), then: [1]
a) A ⊂ B but A ≠ B b) A = B c) A ∩ B =∅ d) P(A) = P(B)
𝟒 [1]
3. Probability that A speaks truth is 𝟓 . A coin is tossed. A reported that a head

appears. The probability that actually there was head is:


𝟒 𝟐 𝟏 𝟏
a) 𝟓 b) 𝟓 c) 𝟓 d) 𝟐

4. The probability of obtaining an even prime number on each die, when a pair of [1]
dice is rolled is:
a) 0 𝟏 𝟏 𝟏
b) 𝟑𝟔 c) 𝟑 d) 𝟏𝟐

5. If A and B are two events such that A ⊂ B and P(B) ≠ 0, then which of the following [1]
is correct?
a) P(A|B) =P(A) b) P(A|B) ≥ P(A) c) P(A| B) = P(B)/P(A) d) P(A|B) < P(A)

6. Two events A and B will be independent, if: [1]


a) A and B are mutually exclusive b) P(A) + P(B) = 1
c) P(𝑨′ ∩ 𝑩′ ) = [ 1 – P(A)] [ 1 – P(B)] d) P(A) = P(B)

7. In a meeting, 70% of the members favour and 30% oppose a certain proposal. A [2]
member is selected at random and we take X = 0 if he opposed, and X = 1 if he is in
favour. Find E(X) and Var(X).
8. An urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls. A ball is drawn at random, its colour is [3]
noted and is returned to the urn. Moreover, 2 additional balls of the colour drawn
are put in the urn and then a ball is drawn at random. What is the probability that
the second ball is red?

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9. A card from a pack of 52 cards is lost. From the remaining cards of the pack, two [3]
cards are drawn and are found to be both diamonds. Find the probability of the
lost card being a diamond.
10. Given three identical boxes I, II and III each containing two coins. In box I both [3]
coins are gold coins, in box II, both are silver coins and, in the box III, there is one
gold and one silver coin. A person chooses a box at random and takes out a coin.
If the coin is of gold, what is the probability that the other coin in the box is also of
gold?
11. A and B throw a die alternatively till one of them gets a 6 and wins the game. Find [3]
their respective probabilities of winning, if A starts first.
12. A laboratory blood test is 99% effective in detecting a certain disease when it is in [5]
fact, present. However, the test also yields a false positive result for 0.5% of the
healthy person tested (i. e if a healthy person is tested, then, with probability
0.005, the test will imply he has the disease). If 0.1 percent of the population
actually has the disease, what is the probability that a person has the disease
given that his test result is positive?

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Common questions

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Initially, the urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls. The first ball draw influences the probability of the second ball draw; drawing a red and adding two more red balls results in (7 red, 5 black), and drawing a black resulting in (5 red, 7 black). This application of conditional probability uses these modified fractions to compute the likelihood of the second draw being red: 5/10 * 7/12 + 5/10 * 5/12 = 6/12 .

In a setup where 70% favor (X=1) and 30% oppose (X=0) a proposal, the expected value E(X) is 0.7 and Var(X) is 0.21, calculated using E(X) = p and Var(X) = p(1-p), where p is the probability for X=1. This provides insight into the weighting of outcomes based on probabilities and their deviations .

There is only one even prime number, which is 2. Since dice contain numbers 1 through 6, and there is no 2 on a single die when considering prime numbers, the probability of rolling an even prime on each die is zero .

With a disease having a 0.1% prevalence and a 99% detection rate but a 0.5% false positive rate, Bayes' Theorem evaluates the probability of true disease presence given a positive test. Despite the high detection rate, the low base rate and false positives result in many positives being incorrect (approx. 1.96% true positive rate). This highlights the importance of considering base rates and test accuracies in medical statistics .

Using Bayes' Theorem, the probability that the other coin is gold given one gold coin is drawn is calculated. The prior probabilities of choosing each box are equal (1/3), and given one gold coin, you update based on each box's conditional probabilities: P(Box I | gold) = 1, P(Box II | gold) = 0, P(Box III | gold) = 0.5. Overall probability is P(Box I) = 1/2, assuming the gold-to-gold conditional creates higher likelihood .

Given that two drawn cards from the remaining deck are diamonds, the probability that the lost card is also a diamond can be found using Bayes' Theorem. Initially, the chance of drawing 2 diamonds if the lost one was a diamond is higher (combining probabilities of initially having 12 diamonds out of 51 remaining cards) compared to the case where no more diamonds are lost. This calculation requires using conditional probabilities to overturn initial assumptions with new evidence .

Two events A and B are independent if their joint probability P(A ∩ B) equals the product of their individual probabilities P(A)P(B). This definition ensures that the occurrence of one event does not inform or alter the likelihood of the other event occurring .

Two events A and B are independent if P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B). Consequently, the independence condition also implies that P(A' ∩ B') = (1 - P(A))(1 - P(B)), where A' and B' are the complements of A and B, respectively .

In dice games, probability helps model and predict outcomes based on set conditions—here with players alternately rolling until a 6 appears. Calculating each player's chance involves geometric series principles where probabilities build sequentially, tracking previous outcomes (e.g., probability of success on the first try and repeats thereafter).

If P(A|B) equals P(B|A), it implies a symmetric relationship between the two events in terms of conditional probability. This often suggests that either A is a subset of B or vice versa, or both events are equal or mutually exclusive .

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