CHAPTER 8:
El-Nino: An Extraordinary
Heat Wave in Malaysia
8.1 Introduction
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El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an extraordinary global
weather change phenomenon due to the changes in the pattern of atmospheric
pressure and fluctuation of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Pacific
Ocean’s equator. There are two phases of ENSO, which are: the warm phase,
when the global temperature changes increase by more than 0.5oC which is
called as El-Nino and the cold phase when the global temperature changes
drop by more than 0.5oC known as La-Nina. The strength of ENSO is
classified based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which are weak (0.5
– 1.0oC), moderate (1.0 – 1.5oC), strong (1.5 – 2.0oC) and very strong (>
2.0oC). If in the cold phase, the range of temperature changes is in a negative
value.
According to UNISDR (2009), El-Nino is defined as Irregular Ocean and
weather patterns due to the complex interaction occurrence between tropical
Pacific Ocean and its global atmosphere. The return period (recurrence) of
the El-Nino is expected to be within 2 to 6 years in an irregular trend. Usually
the La-Nina event (occurrence) will appear after the El-Nino has taken place.
Figure 8.1 shows the historical record of ENSO event (occurrence) from
1950 to 2016 (NOAA, 2016). The El-Nino and La-Nina events (happenings)
are related to each other. The El-Nino pattern will influence the formation of
La-Nina in the following year. Between 1972-1973 and 1997-1998, also from
1973 to 1976 and 1998 to 2000, respectively the El-Nino had occurred twice
in a very strong scale. However, the formation of El-Nino has more
frequently happened rather than La-Nina and not necessarily the occurrence
of El-Nino will cause the occurrence of La-Nina in the following year. The
formation of ENSO event can be predicted earlier based on the temperature
changes in March (spring season), until it reaches its peak’s strength from
December to January and then weaken by May of the following year.
The Pacific Ocean is the largest ocean in the world with an area of 165.25
million km2. It is divided into four compartment namely as North, South, East
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(America and Peru) and West Pacific (Asia and Australia). In normal
conditions, the Eastern area has higher atmospheric surface pressure
compared to the western area. Due to pressure difference between both sides,
the trade wind blows from the Eastern to the Western area. These winds
makes the warm water accumulate and pile up at the western part of ocean
surface with 8oC warmer in the west and outpouring the cold water from the
seabed to the central and eastern part of Pacific Ocean. It creates a difference
in temperature between the East and West’s Ocean surface which produces a
diverse climate at both sides. Therefore, western Pacific countries such as
Indonesia, Asia and South East Asia normally receive heavy rainfall
meanwhile the eastern Pacific countries such as America and Peru
experiences dry season.
Very
Strong
Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)
Strong
Moderate
Weak
Weak
Moderate
Strong
Figure 8.1: Record of El-Nino event from year 1950 to 2016
(Source: [Link]/enso/[Link])
In an unusual condition, the weaker trade wind may blow in an opposite
direction. The changes in the pattern of trade wind is because of the
atmospheric pressure in the western side especially at Papua New Guinea
which is slightly rather higher than eastern side. It will reduce the spilling
process and make the warm surface prevailing at the central and eastern side
of ocean surface. These conditions change the temperature and rainfall
pattern at both sides. The western part receives higher temperature
meanwhile the eastern side receive heavier rainfall from the normal weather
condition and this is called as El-Nino.
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8.2 El-Nino Disaster Records in Malaysia
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Malaysia is located in Southeast Asia. Because of its location near to
the equator, the climate is influenced by the equator and receives dry and
humid seasons throughout the year. The seasons in Malaysia are influenced
by the 2 monsoons namely North-East monsoon (November to March) and
South-West monsoon (May to September). Normally, heavy rainfall occurs
during the North-East monsoon which is caused by the rise in wind speed
which is more than 20 knots from the northeast direction heading toward to
the east coast states of Peninsular. At the end of the humid season, the
Southwest monsoon will appear whereby the wind flow becomes weaker and
less amount of cloud brings more heat and lesser rainfall during this season.
Nowadays, the weather conditions has become crucial and unpredictable.
The warm season frequently occurs in an extreme temperature. Refering to
the year 2015, the weather pattern during northeast monsoon was identically
different whereby most of the east coast states received less rainfall below the
normal level. The temperature rose time by time in March, 2016 up to 39oC at
several locations in Malaysia such as Alor Setar, Batu Embun, and Temerloh.
Meanwhile Kuala Pilah, Ipoh and Keningau received 35oC, 10% exceeding
the normal temperature. This case has been dragged for 3 months starting
from January where previously begun at Perlis and Kedah but then all over
the states in Malaysia.
Eventhough the El-Nino had struck Malaysia several times, however the
formation of this calamity has become more frequently as compared to 100
years ago. According to the record, El-Nino had struck 12 times from 1951
to 1998. El-Nino in its moderate level recorded, hit Malaysia in 2002, 2007,
2010, and 2014. Meanwhile, the strongest El-Nino was recorded between
1982-1983 and 1997-1998 which had destroyed paddy fields and fisheneries,
water rationing, air pollutant, incurring economic losses, restriction of
recreational activities and tourism activities. The situation became critical
when haze had covered the atmosphere due to 4.5 hectars of forest fire that
had taken place in large parts of Sumatera and Kalimantan. Malaysia’s API
reading at that time had exceeded 500 that covered most states in Malaysia
and an Emergency was declared in September, 1997. About 40,000 people
had experienced various diseases that had threaten to cause health problems.
The activities of forest fire during the dry air season had caused the smoke
particles to float and these particles had concentrated at the atmosphere, and
this has contributed to the haze condition. The low speed of wind flow as
well as due to the least of air movement vertically and horizontally had
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accumulated the haze quantity in large amounts which had contributed to the
impairing of visibility and health threat.
8.3 Inter-correlation between El-Nino and Global Warming
___________________________________________________
In recent years, the phenomenon of El-Nino occurrence has become
more frequent compared to 100 years ago. Referring to the El-Nino record
since year 1900s, the recurrence of El-Nino happens in an average of 4 years.
However, the formation of El-Nino has become more frequent in an average
of 3 years beginning from 1950 to 2016. The changes of El-Nino trends are
likely to be linear with the increment of global warming issues.
Global warming can be addressed as a warmer climate due to the rise of
greenhouse gases (GHGs) trapped in the atmosphere. About 5 of the GHGs
that exist in the atmosphere are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous
oxide (N2O), water vapour and ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the highest
emission that is emitted by humans. NASA has claimed the level of CO2 have
increased yearly and surpassed to 300 ppm since the 1950s. Currently, the
reading of CO2 emission has reached 405 ppm in March, 2016 rose by 3 ppm
compared to the March, 2015. As reported by NOAA, the CO2 is expected to
increase 1.5% anomaly and about 34% rise since 1990. Fossil fuel burning is
the major contributor of CO2 in line with the country’s development and
technological advancement.
The increment of GHGs agents that are trapped in the atmosphere system
causes the earth to become warmer than usual. It can be measured using
Global Annual Temperature (GAT) value. For example, December, 2015 had
recorded the highest GAT rise achieving 1.0oC within a 137 years length
record. The drastic increment of GAT until early in the year of 2016 has
proven the existence of El-Nino event. There was a similar situation between
1997 and 1998 where the GAT had recorded 0.5 oC and 0.63 oC respectively
which are considered as the highest increment in 20th century (NOAA, 2016).
The global warming and El-Nino have strong relations and are interconnected
between each other. The global warming has potential to raise the SST and
GAT at Pacific Ocean, and can be the best agent to influence the El-Nino
formation. On the other hand, the El-Nino occurrence will create a chaos at
the global climate trend around the world and it can contribute to the rise of
GAT anomaly.
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There are many agencies and climatologist who have planned an efficient
long term management of water resources at various regions in Malaysia.
They are expecting the increment of GHGs level in the skyline (Tukimat and
Alias, 2016; Tukimat and Harun, 2014; Hassan et al., 2015; Hamidon, et al.,
2015; MMD, 2009). According to their reports, the temperature is expected
to rise from 1.1oC to 4.0oC from December to February as the warmest
season. The maximum temperature would be achieved at 37.6oC at the end of
century, whereby there will be an equal in the temperature readings during
El-Nino season. Figure 8.2 shows the projected trend of monthly temperature
for interval years 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099 meanwhile Figure
8.3 shows the annual temperature and rainfall trend for Peninsular Malaysia,
Sabah and Sarawak by MMD (2009). As the temperature is expected to
increase, the rainfall rate will fluctuate through the years. In 2028, it is
predicted that the temperature reading will rise +2.3oC drastically with lesser
rainfall amount which is expected to drop until 29% especially in Sabah. The
trend is slightly higher than 2016 which expects an unusual phenomenon to
happen.
However, the prediction of El-Nino event in the future years by using climate
modelling is still in disarray because the event involves many ocean
variables and atmospheric process that contributes to the ENSO phenomena.
8.4 El Nino Impact on Water Resources
___________________________________________________
Water resources are the most critical aspect affected by the El-Nino
disaster. It causes massive impact to the water resources management for
water supply for irrigation, residential, and hydropower, excess water and
environmental restoration. Strong El-Nino will encourage the
evapotranspiration (ET) activities especially at open surface such as river,
ocean, reservoir and others.
Tukimat et. al., 2012 in their study proved that the fluctuation of ET value
depends on the local temperature changes where the potential ET (PET) is
expected to rise in an average 0.49% per year. When active ET occurs and at
the same time receiving less rainfall, it might cause a drought at certain
specific locations.
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Average Temperature 40 37.5 37.6
35.8 35.0
35 34.2 34.6 33.4 34.5 33.9 34.734.5
32.6
30
(˚C)
25
24.6 24.4
23.9 23.8 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.722.9
21.8 22.3 23.1
20
Feb
Jun
Jul
Sep
Apr
May
Oct
Dec
Aug
Nov
Jan
Mar
Figure 8.2: Projection of monthly temperature for interval year 2020-2039, 2040-
2069, and 2070-2099 (Source: Tukimat et. al., 2012)
Peninsular Sabah Sarawak
Temperature Anomaly (˚C)
Year
Temperature Anomaly (˚C)
Year
Figure 8.3: Annual temperature and precipitation for Peninsular, Sabah and
Sarawak (Source: MMD, 2009)
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The drought can create water shortage crisis which had happened in Selangor
and the Federal Territory, Malaysia from 27 March 1998 to 16 September
1998. This crisis was due to a period of long drought and the absence of
rainfall in the water catchment areas causing the water level to drop to a
critical level. As a result, the quantity of water released to water treatment
plants was controlled and their production capacity dropped to less than 50%
(Aini et, al., 2001). The shortage of water supply is overcome by introducing
several measures which includes water rationing, water transfer from other
sources or catchment, cloud seeding and extraction from groundwater, to
maintain the water supply to reach the consumers. The drought due to El-
Nino event had recurred again in 2016 at large parts of Malaysia. The water
level at most of important dams in Malaysia dropped by more than 50% in
April, this also had had affected the irrigation water supply.
The drought has also affected the agricultural sector where the soil moisture
is inadequate to initiate and sustain crop growth (Larry, 2005). The
agricultural drought happens when the there is a shortage of water supply to
the irrigation system for crops and the soil moisture content is low to sustain
the crop growth. As a result, the failure of crop cultivation causes the farmers
to lose millions of ringgits. IPCC, 2001 reported that the high temperature
has potential to reduce the crops yields due to the short period of the crop
cycle. The extraordinary heat which came from El-Nino has created a huge
impact to our water resources. Prevention and strategies are needed to adapt
to this phenomenon. In Malaysia, the National Council of Water Resources
(NCWR) was established in June,1998 with the purpose to monitor the
holistic water management system including implementation of inter-state
water transfers and water supply services.
8.5 El Nino Impact on Building and Structure
___________________________________________________
Most of residential houses, high rise buildings, and schools in
Malaysia were designed by considering the hot weather and frequent rain.
However, the occurrence of unexpected continuous hot weather with very
less rain intensity may increase the indoor temperature and create discomfort
to the occupants and consumers. A conducive and comfortable environment
in the workplace is very important in assisting the quality of production. In
order to solve this problem, occupants find ways to create a cool and
comfortable environment by installing more electrical appliances such as fan
and air conditioning system in their buildings. As a result, more energy is
consumed through the use of electrical appliances to create a cooling
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environment at indoors of buildings. Increase in the use of air conditioning
system in many buildings consume high amount of energy and also
contributes to greenhouse gas issues. This further worsen the issue of global
warming, rising of sea level, more negative impacts to the destruction of flora
and fauna habitat and weather changes. From the point of sustainable
environment, improvement in the comfort level of indoor is possible through
innovation in design and construction method while keeping the use of air
cooling electrical appliances at the minimum level.
Realizing that the el-Nino phenomenon is an act of nature, the design of the
buildings needs to be reconsidered. This has to be different from the
conventional type in order to have a cooler and comfortable environment.
This can only be achieved when the designers and builders work and think
together on producing conducive indoor building environment using low
amount of air conditioning system. Utilization of building information
modelling (BIM) is seen as one of the effective tool that can assist in
development of this environmental friendly building that is able to offer
comfort to the occupants with minimal negative effect to the environment.
The transparency of BIM allows the users to share the information and work
together to produce a green building that is able to cater the needs of users
with less damage to the environment. Furthermore, cool indoor environment
is also influenced by the use of construction material. Instead of selecting
cheap and conventional materials that is known for causing higher
temperature indoors, the designer of this century who are dealing with the El-
Nino issue should select the construction materials such as clay brick that can
create cooler environment inside the building.
Generally, the occurrence of El-Nino has open a new horizon in construction
building industry whereby innovation is definitely required both in designing
and construction of building for the creation of comfortable living indoor
without creating huge damages to the environment.
References
___________________________________________________
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Management: Satisfaction Level, Effect and Coping of the
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of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers, Atlanta.
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AUTHOR’S BIOGRAPHY
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Nurul Nadrah Aqilah Tukimat, PhD was born in Johor, Malaysia, on 21th
Oct 1985. She was graduated with honour in Bachelor Degree of Civil
Engineering from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Skudai, Malaysia
in 2009 and PhD degree in Civil Engineering at the same university in 2014.
She is very active in journal publications and conferences. Her research
interest is related to climate modelling, climate change impact, hydrological
modelling, water resources management, optimization modelling, and
reservoir operation management
Nor Azlina binti Alias, PhD was graduated in Bachelor Degree of Civil
Engineering from Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM), Serdang, Malaysia. She
has a PhD degree in Civil Engineering from UNITEN. She is very active in
journal publications and conferences and had awarded as the Best Paper in
2nd International Symposium on Flood Research and Management 2015
(ISFRAM). Her research interest is related to water resources engineering,
hydrological modelling and flood management.
Shairul Rohaziawati Samat was born in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on 30th
April 1981. She was graduated with honour in Bachelor Degree of Civil
Engineering from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Skudai, Malaysia in
2002. She obtained her Master of Engineering (Hydraulics & Hydrology)
degree in 2004 from UTM and now working as a lecturer in Universiti
Malaysia Pahang (UMP) Gambang, Malaysia. Her research interest is related
to urban storm water management and statistical hydrology.
Khairunisa Muthusamy, PhD obtained her degree in Civil Engineering
from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia. She is involved in teaching
the Civil Engineering undergraduate students for almost 10 years. After
graduating with PhD in Civil Engineering from Universiti Teknologi
Malaysia in 2009, she has been actively involved in researching on
environmentally friendly concrete. Her keen interest in exploring the
potential of local waste materials for concrete use has resulted in
development of green lightweight concrete. Her research product has won
gold award in CITREX 2016 and silver award for green technology category
in BIOMALAYSIA 2016 Exhibition. She has published almost of 50 journal
papers and conference papers related to concrete research.
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