PSYCHOLOGICAL
STATISTICS
What is
Statistics?
INTRODUCTION
TO STATISTICS
What is Statistics?
Statistics include numerical facts and figures.
For instance:
The largest earthquake measured 9.2 on the Richter scale.
Men are at least 10 times more likely than women to
commit murder.
One in every 8 South Africans is HIV positive.
By the year 2020, there will be 15 people aged 65 and over
for every new baby born.
INTRODUCTION
TO STATISTICS
What is Statistics?
The study of statistics involves math and
relies upon calculations of numbers. But it
also relies heavily on how the numbers are
chosen and how the statistics are
interpreted.
INTRODUCTION
TO STATISTICS
What is Statistics?
For example, consider the following three
scenarios in the next slide and the
interpretations based upon the presented
statistics. You will find that the numbers may
be right, but the interpretation may be wrong.
Try to identify a major flaw with each
interpretation before we describe it:
A new advertisement for Selecta's ice cream introduced in
late April of last year resulted in a 30% increase in ice cream
sales for the following three months. Thus, the
advertisement was effective.
A new advertisement for Selecta's ice cream introduced in late April of last year
resulted in a 30% increase in ice cream sales for the following three months. Thus, the
advertisement was effective.
A major flaw for this example is that ice cream consumption
generally increases in the months of May, June, and July (due
to hot the weather on these months) regardless of
advertisements. This effect is called a history effect and leads
people to interpret outcomes as the result of one variable
when another variable (in this case, one having to do with the
passage of time) is actually responsible.
The more churches in a city, the more crime there is. Thus,
churches lead to crime.
The more churches in a city, the more crime there is. Thus, churches lead to crime.
A major flaw is that both increased churches and increased
crime rates can be explained by larger populations. In bigger
cities, there are both more churches and more crime.
Namely, a third variable can cause both situations; however,
people erroneously believe that there is a causal relationship
between the two primary variables rather than recognize that
a third variable can cause both.
INTRODUCTION
TO STATISTICS
What is Statistics?
As a whole, these examples show that statistics
are not only facts and figures; they are
something more than that.
In the broadest sense, “statistics” refers to a
range of techniques and mathematical
procedures for organizing, summarizing,
analyzing, interpreting, displaying, and making
decisions based on data/information.
INTRODUCTION
TO STATISTICS
What is Statistics?
Statistics is the language of science and data.
The ability to understand and communicate
using statistics enables researchers from
different labs, different languages, and
different fields articulate to one another
exactly what they have found in their work. It is
an objective, precise, and powerful tool in
science and in everyday life.
INTRODUCTION
TO STATISTICS
Why do we Study
Statistics?
Statistics is how we communicate in science.
It serves as the link between a research idea
and usable conclusions.
Without statistics, we would be unable to
interpret the massive amounts of
information contained in data.
INTRODUCTION
TO STATISTICS
Why do we Study
Statistics?
Beyond its use in science, however, there is a more
personal reason to study statistics.
You are able to properly evaluate the data and
claims that bombard you every day.
If you cannot distinguish good from faulty reasoning,
then you are vulnerable to manipulation and to
decisions that are not in your best interest.
INTRODUCTION
TO STATISTICS
Why do we Study
Statistics?
Without a way to organize these numbers into a more
interpretable form, we would be lost, having wasted the
time and money of our participants, ourselves, and the
communities we serve.
Statistics provides tools that you need in order to
react intelligently to information you hear or read. In
this sense, statistics is one of the most important things
that you can study.
All of the claims in the next slide are statistical in
character. We suspect that some of them sound familiar;
if not, we bet that you have heard other claims like them.
Notice how diverse the examples are. They come from
psychology, health, law, sports, business, etc. Indeed, data
and data interpretation show up in discourse from
virtually every facet of contemporary life.
Here are some claims: (We don’t know if these are true!)
4 out of 5 dentists recommend Colgate.
Condoms are effective 94% of the time.
People tend to be more persuasive when they look others
directly in the eye and speak loudly and quickly.
A surprising new study shows that pancit can increase
one's life span.
There is an 80% chance that in a room full of 30 people
that at least two people will share the same birthday.
79.48% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
INTRODUCTION
TO STATISTICS
Why do we Study
Statistics?
Statistics are often presented in an effort to add
credibility to an argument or advice.
You can see this by paying attention to television
advertisements. Many of the numbers thrown about in
this way do not represent careful statistical analysis.
They can be misleading and push you into decisions
that you might find cause to regret.
INTRODUCTION
TO STATISTICS
Why do we Study
Statistics?
For these reasons, learning about statistics is a long
step towards taking control of your life. (It is not, of
course, the only step needed for this purpose.) The
purpose of this course, beyond preparing you for a
career in psychology, is to help you learn statistical
essentials. It will make you into an intelligent
consumer of statistical claims.
The British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli is quoted by Mark
Twain as having said,
“There are three kinds
of lies -- lies, damned
lies, and statistics.”
To be an intelligent consumer of statistics, your first
reflex must be to question the statistics that you
encounter.
This quote by the British Prime Minister reminds us
why it is so important to understand statistics. So let
us invite you to reform your statistical habits from
now on. No longer will you blindly accept numbers or
findings. Instead, you will begin to think about the
numbers, their sources, and most importantly, the
procedures used to generate them.
INTRODUCTION
TO STATISTICS
Why do we Study
Statistics?
On a positive note, it is just as important as detecting
the deceptive use of statistics is the appreciation of
the proper use of statistics.
You must also learn to recognize statistical evidence that
supports a stated conclusion.
Statistics are all around you, sometimes used well,
sometimes not. We must learn how to distinguish the
two cases.
INTRODUCTION
Why Are Statistics in
TO STATISTICS
Psychology Necessary?
According to APA, Psychological Statistics is
the area within psychology and the behavioral
sciences that is concerned with research
design and methodology, addressing issues of
measurement, sampling, data collection, data
analysis, and reporting of findings.
INTRODUCTION
Why Are Statistics in
TO STATISTICS
Psychology Necessary?
In the field of psychology, statistics is
important for the following reasons:
When dealing with huge amounts of
information, it's all too easy to become
overwhelmed. Statistics enable
psychologists to organize data in ways that
are easier to comprehend.
INTRODUCTION
Why Are Statistics in
TO STATISTICS
Psychology Necessary?
In the field of psychology, statistics is
important for the following reasons:
Descriptive statistics allow psychologists to
summarize data related to (for example)
human performance, happiness, and other
metrics.
INTRODUCTION
Why Are Statistics in
TO STATISTICS
Psychology Necessary?
In the field of psychology, statistics is
important for the following reasons:
By using what's known as inferential
statistics, researchers can draw
conclusions about a given sample or
population.
INTRODUCTION
Why Are Statistics in
TO STATISTICS
Psychology Necessary?
In the field of psychology, statistics is
important for the following reasons:
Regression models allow psychologists to
quantify the relationship between
variables related to (for example) human
performance, happiness, and other metrics.
INTRODUCTION
Why Are Statistics in
TO STATISTICS
Psychology Necessary?
In the field of psychology, statistics is
important for the following reasons:
Hypothesis tests allow psychologists to
compare the effectiveness of different
methods, techniques, and procedures on
(for example) human performance,
happiness, and other metrics.