Maktab Competitive Exams Services
Current Affairs Workshop for CSS 2025
Instructor: Arslan Zahid Khan (CSP - 51st Common)
Iran Israel Rivalry: Power Shifts in Syria and Lebanon and
Regional Implications
Historic Dynamics of Iran Israel Rivalry
1. Pre-Revolution Period (1948–1979)
Israel and Iran maintained cordial relations after Israel’s establishment in 1948. Iran,
under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, recognized Israel de facto, though not de jure.
Iran supplied Israel with oil, and both collaborated on military and intelligence projects,
including Operation Tzfirin, involving joint missile development.
2. The Islamic Revolution (1979)
The 1979 Iranian Revolution transformed the relationship. Ayatollah Khomeini’s
regime adopted a staunchly anti-Israel stance, branding Israel as the "Little Satan" and
advocating for the liberation of Palestine.
3. The 1980s: The Iran-Iraq War and Indirect Cooperation
Iran-Contra Affair (1985–1987): Despite public hostility, Israel secretly facilitated U.S.
arms sales to Iran during its war with Iraq, exposing pragmatic undercurrents despite
ideological enmity.
4. The 1990s: Rising Hostilities
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) helped establish and strengthen Hezbollah
in Lebanon, a key actor in Iran’s strategy against Israel. It grew increasingly wary of
Iran’s nuclear program, viewing it as a direct existential threat.
5. The 2000s: Strategic and Proxy Conflicts
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005–2013) intensified hostility with statements
denying the Holocaust and calling for Israel’s destruction. Iran’s financial and military
backing for Palestinian militant groups positioned it as a direct threat to Israel’s
security.
6. The Syrian Civil War (2011–2020)
Iran’s involvement in supporting Bashar al-Assad aligned it with Hezbollah and
positioned it closer to Israel’s borders. Israel launched hundreds of airstrikes targeting
Iranian assets and Hezbollah in Syria, aiming to curb Iran’s regional influence.
7. Abraham Accords and Iran's Isolation (2020–Present)
The Abraham Accords (2020) between Israel and several Arab states, including the
UAE and Bahrain, further isolated Iran regionally. Tehran has intensified its ballistic
missile and drone programs and its support for proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis,
escalating tensions.
Core Themes of the Rivalry
1. Ideological Conflict: Iran’s theocratic regime views Israel as illegitimate, tied
to its anti-Western, anti-Zionist stance.
2. Geopolitical Competition: Iran aims to expand its influence across the Middle
East, while Israel seeks to contain Iran’s regional ambitions.
3. Proxy Warfare: Iran uses proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian
Islamic Jihad to challenge Israel indirectly.
Contemporary Course of Events
1. Hamas Led attacks in Southern Israel Oct 08, 2023
2. Israeli Strike on Iranian Consulate in Damascus resulting in the deaths of 13
individuals, including Major General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a top IRGC
commander, and his deputy. April 1, 2024
3. Iran launched approximately 300 missiles and drones targeting Israel. The
majority were intercepted with assistance from the U.S., U.K., France, and
Jordan. April 13, 2024
4. Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran July 31, 2024
5. Israel launched extensive airstrikes across Lebanon, claiming to have hit 1,600
Hezbollah targets September 23, 2024
6. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike September
27, 2024
7. Iran fired approximately 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, claiming it was in
response to Israeli assassinations of top Hamas, Hezbollah, and IRGC leaders.
Oct 02, 2024
8. The Israel Defense Forces conducted an airstrike on an underground bunker in
Dahieh, Beirut, killing Hashem Safieddine Oct 03, 2024
9. Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza and mastermind behind the
October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel, was killed by Israeli forces during a firefight
in Rafah, Gaza. October 17, 2024
10. Israel launched a wave of missiles targeting what it described as military sites
in Iran. Iranian officials reported that air defense systems intercepted several
incoming missiles. October 26, 2024
11. Fall of the Assad Regime December 08, 2024
Power Assessment: Who emerged Stronger?
Israel:
1. Military Technology Complex: The assassinations of Hassan Nasrallah
(Hezbollah), Yahya Sinwar, and Ismail Haniyeh (Hamas) underscore Israel’s
intelligence dominance and operational precision. Iron Dome (Intercept short
range missiles), David’s Sling (Medium to Long range missiles), Arrow Defence
system (Long range), Cyber warfare, Drones, Smart Bombs and missiles,
Advanced surveillance technologies, Pager attacks
2. Strategic Alliances: I2U2, Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA) also known
as Arab NATO ( strengthen the security relationships between the United
States, Israel, and key Arab states (including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain,
and others) in order to counter Iran), NATO’s Mediterranean Dialogue (involves
NATO cooperation with seven Middle Eastern countries, including Israel to
counter Iran), The Abraham Accords, Central Eastern Mediterranean
Cooperation (CEMEC) A trilateral cooperation between Israel, Cyprus, and
Greece, primarily focused on regional stability in the Eastern Mediterranean,
Israel-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Relations
3. Domestic Challenges: Coalition Government - Ultra orthodox Group –
Overburdened Military – Clamours of Secular Groups – Public Pressure due to
exhaustive pressures
Iran:
1. Proxy Network Resilience: Despite major leadership losses, Iran’s influence
through proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and various Shiite militias across
Iraq, Yemen, and Syria remains significant. The ideological and military
infrastructure supporting these groups is deeply entrenched and capable of
regeneration. Axis of Resistance (Iran Iraq Syria Hezbollah Hamas- Shiite
Crescent)
2. Nuclear Brinkmanship: Iran’s advancing nuclear program continues to be its
strategic card, creating a constant threat to Israel and escalating fears of a
broader conflict. Earth Quake in Northern Iran in Oct. Speculations of
Nucleartest
3. Fall of Asad and Weakening of Hezbollah: Iran’s significant investment in
Syria was a pillar of its regional strategy. The loss of Assad weakens its direct
land corridor to Hezbollah in Lebanon and complicates its military supply routes,
though it may seek alternative strategies to retain influence. Hezbollah itself got
disorganized after killing of its leadership – 1 million refugees in Hezbollah
creating disturbance for Hezbollah because majority of refugee are sunni. Iran
announced delinking support to its proxies to pacify US.
Regional Implications
Core themes are still there (Ideological, Geopolitical and Proxies)
1. Increasing Regional Militarization in MENA region
2. Disruption of Regional and Global supply Chains: Houthis aggression in Bab el
Mandeb
3. War of Infrastructure Corridors: IMEEC Vs BRI, China Iran $400 Bn Strategic
Partnership
4. Uncertain Role of US under Trump will make dynamics of Middle East more
Complex
5. Overshadows the Israel-Palestine crisis, diverting global attention away from
the longstanding Palestinian issue.
Way Forward
1. A two-state solution for Israel and Palestine might form the foundation of
broader negotiations, where Iran could be involved as a key regional actor to
broker peace
2. Creation of a Middle Eastern Security Organization, where Iran and Israel
have defined roles in security and peacekeeping related to promoting
transparency, arms control, and nuclear non-proliferation measures to build
confidence and reduce military tensions.
3. Direct bilateral diplomacy between Iran and Israel, bypassing third-party
intermediaries, could lead to a gradual de-escalation of tensions.
4. The promise of sanctions relief could serve as an incentive for both parties to
engage in dialogue and reach a peaceful resolution
5. Emphasize on multi-level mediation involving not just state actors but also
non-governmental organizations, think tanks, and religious groups that can act
as intermediaries between Iran and Israel (Track II Diplomacy).
6. Negotiations between both countries for a Middle East Weapons of Mass
Destruction-Free Zone (MEWMDFZ), as proposed by the UN