Jacob Ritchie

Ibad Security Brief

The Ibadian military is backing the Tulian Liberation Front (TLF), a rebel group fighting
for land in southwestern Tulia to gain bargaining power for political representation. Together,
they’ve advanced to the outskirts of the major city of Toji but have yet to enter. Tulia, a wealthier
nation under a ruthless dictator, is prepared to counterattack. If the Tulian military were to back
off, the TLF and Ibadian forces could capture Toji in less than a week.
●​ We most greatly desire a ceasefire, but with specific stipulations. Either Tulia agrees to
withdraw their military from rebel controlled areas during negotiation, or Tulia agrees to
a delayed ceasefire which could begin in roughly a week's time.
●​ We must avoid an immediate ceasefire.

Background

Eight days ago, a violent and well-coordinated attack was carried out by organized
mercenaries on a Tulian police station, resulting in the deaths of six officers and the abduction of
ten individuals who were held in the prison. The attack sent shockwaves through Tulia, and in
the immediate aftermath, its dictator, Large Papa, presumed that the Ibadian military was behind
the assault. In response, Large Papa unleashed a massive counter-attack on a military base
situated 20 miles within our borders. This base had long been rumored to be a stronghold for
Tulian rebels who were actively opposed to Large Papa’s regime, thus making it a prime target
for retaliation. The attack was severe, and our military suffered significant losses, prompting
Ibadia to file a formal complaint with the Organization of African Unity (OAU).

Following our complaint, the OAU intervened, and Tulian forces withdrew from our
territory. However, the damage was done, and tensions remained high. Although Tulian troops
retreated, this did little to quell the ongoing conflict between the two nations. Yesterday, the
Tulian anti-government rebels, known as the Tulian Liberation Front (TLF), joined by a
contingent of our military, launched an invasion into southwestern Tulia. Their immediate goal is
the capture of the strategic town of Toji. This move is part of a larger mission: for the TLF, the
aim is to secure land that would strengthen their bargaining position in their quest for political
representation in a government they believe ignores their demands. Meanwhile, our military sees
this as a critical opportunity to weaken Large Papa’s grip on power. The fall of Toji could disrupt
the dictator’s control over the region and potentially lead to the acquisition of much-needed
resources for Ibad.

However, this military campaign has come under significant international scrutiny,
particularly from the OAU, which has been closely monitoring the escalation between Tulia and
Ibad. As a smaller, less financially stable nation, Ibadia cannot afford to lose the support or
goodwill of the OAU. We understand the potential consequences of prolonged conflict with
Tulia—both economically and diplomatically. Therefore, despite our initial backing of the TLF
and shared desire to oust Large Papa, Ibadia is increasingly reluctant to be drawn into a
long-term war. We are not in a position to endure an extended fight, especially with the OAU’s
criticism mounting.

The OAU has already called for an immediate ceasefire to halt the violence, but the
situation remains precarious. While Ibadia is mindful of the need to avoid further conflict, the
TLF has not yet secured Toji and the surrounding area, which they view as essential to their
strategy. For the TLF, the capture of this land is not just symbolic but a practical necessity that
would enhance their negotiating power in any future peace talks. Without it, they fear their
demands for political representation will be ignored.

From our military’s perspective, capturing Toji could serve as a strategic blow to Large
Papa’s regime, potentially destabilizing his control and shifting the balance of power in the
region. The rebels, along with our forces, estimate that it will take no more than five days to
seize Toji and its surrounding territory. Given this tight timeline, the objective is to delay the
acceptance of any ceasefire until the TLF can achieve this critical victory. This delicate balance
between adhering to international pressure and securing a final strategic win is now the focal
point of our military operations in Tulia.

Conclusion

The situation presents a few possible outcomes. In the worst-case scenario, accepting an
immediate ceasefire would spell disaster for both the TLF and Ibadia. The TLF would be forced
out of the land they've captured, losing all leverage for negotiating political representation. For
Ibadia, backing down after invading would make us appear weak and overextended, damaging
the credibility of both our military and government. While this might reduce OAU scrutiny,
there's no guarantee they'll be lenient after our aggressive move into Tulia.

On the other hand, the best-case scenario involves accepting a ceasefire, but with a
critical stipulation. Ideally, we would demand that the Tulian military withdraw from the
rebel-held area around Toji before the ceasefire is enacted, or agree to a one-week delay in
implementing the ceasefire. If Tulia agrees to pull back their troops, the TLF and Ibadian forces
could capture Toji within the week. Even if Tulia doesn’t withdraw, our military predicts that we
could still seize Toji within the week before the ceasefire is enforced.

In either case, the TLF would successfully secure the land they needed to strengthen their
bargaining position with the Tulian government. Controlling this territory would give them
crucial leverage to demand political representation. For Ibadia, this would be a strategic win, as it
would allow us to maintain a foothold in the region and secure valuable resources, at least
temporarily, until the TLF reaches a settlement. Furthermore, capturing Toji would put pressure
on Large Papa’s regime and create a more favorable situation for both the rebels and our
interests, all while minimizing the risk of further OAU backlash. This would strike a balance
between avoiding long-term conflict and achieving a strategic victory.

Reference

-​ Activity general Instructions sheet

Harvard Law School . (n.d.). Tulia and Ibad Simulation General [Link]. Google
Drive. [Link]