Probability Concepts Chapter 11
Basic Counting Method:
M x N rule
Permutation
Combination
M x N Rule: To determine total outcomes
Two Coins are tossed 2x2=4
Two Dice are rolled 6 x 6 = 36
Three Coins are tossed 2x2x2=8
Two Coins and 1 dice 2 x 2 x 6 = 24
Example: For how many days different dressing is possible if a person has 4 different shirts, 3 pants, 2
shoes pair and 4 ties.
Sol. (4 x 3 x 2 x 4 = 96)
Permutation:
An arrangement of finite number of distinct objects in a definite order
Order matter
Different Objects
( )
Permutation in Numbers:
Example 1: In how many ways 3 digit numbers can be formed using 2, 3, 5, 7, and 9
Sol. R.N.A 5 x 4 x 3 = 60 ways
R.A 5 x 5 x 5 = 125 ways By Default R.N.A
Example 2: In how many ways 3 digit numbers can be formed using 3, 2, 0, 5 and 7
Sol. R.N.A 4 x 4 x 3 = 48 ways
R.A 4 x 5 x 5 = 100 ways
Example 3: In how many ways 3 digit numbers can be formed using 3, 3, 2, 5 and 7
Sol. R.N.A = 30 ways
R.A = 62.5 ways
Example 4: In how many ways 4 digit numbers can be formed from 5, 8, 4, 3 and 1 if number start from
3 and end at 5
Example 5: In how many ways 3 digit odd numbers can be formed from 5, 7, 3, 2, and 9.
Example 6: In how many ways 3 digit even numbers can be formed from 5, 7, 3, 2 and 9.
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Permutation in Words:
Non repeated letters
Repeated letters
Vowels together
Vowels not together
Non Repeated letters:
Example: In how many ways “KITE” can be rearranged?
Sol. 4! = 24
Repeated letters:
Example: In how many ways “SCHOOL” can be rearranged?
Sol. 360 ways
Example: In how many ways “LAPTOP” can be rearranged?
Sol. 360 ways
Example: In how many ways “MISSISSIPPI” can be rearranged?
Sol. 34650 ways
Vowels Together:
Example: In how many ways “SCHOOL” can be rearranged having vowels together?
Sol. 120 ways
Example: In how many ways “LAPTOP” can be rearranged having vowels together?
Sol. 120 ways
Example: In how many ways “MISSISSIPPI” can be rearranged having vowels together?
Sol. 840 ways
Vowels Not Together:
Example: In how many ways “SCHOOL” can be rearranged having vowels not together?
360 – 120 = 240 ways
Example: In how many ways “LAPTOP” can be rearranged having vowels not together?
360 – 120 = 240 ways
Example: In how many ways “MISSISSIPPI” can be rearranged having vowels not together?
34650 – 840 = 33810 ways
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Probability Concepts Chapter 11
Combination:
Repetition not allowed
Order does not matter
Same/identical objects.
( )
Example 1: In how many ways 4 apples can be selected from 12.
(12C4 = 495 ways)
Example 2: In how many ways 3 players can be selected from 7.
Example 3: In how many ways a team of 3 players consisting of 2 boys and 1 girl can be selected from 5
boys and 5 girls? (5C2 x 5C1 = 50 ways)
Example 4: In how many ways 5 fruits can be selected from 3 apples, 2 melons, 4 mangoes and 1
pineapple. (10P5 = 30240 ways)
Order matters
Different Objects
Try it!
In a class of 10 students 4 are girls. 3 students are selected at random. Find
number of ways that.
2 girls are selected:
6C1 x 4C2 = 36 ways
Atleast 2 boys are selected:
(6C2 x 4C1) + (6C3 x 4C0) = 80 ways
Atmost 2 girls are selected:
No girl is selected: Contingency Table
All boys are selected:
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Probability Concepts Chapter 11
Probability:
Chances of occurrence or non-occurrence of an uncertain event is numerically known
as probability.
It ranges from 0 to 1
0 means impossible event
1 means sure event
( )
Probability of Coins:
Question 1: A coin is tossed, find the probability that
A head appears
A tail appears
Two heads appears
Two tails appear
Question 2: Two coins are tossed, find the probability that
Both are head All Possible
One is head outcomes are called
Atleast one tail
“sample space”.
Atmost one tail
All tails
Question 3: Three coins are tossed, find the probability that
All are head
Two tails
One is head
Atmost 3 heads
Atleast 2 tails
Atmost 1 head
All tails
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Probability of Dice:
Question 1: A dice is rolled, find the probability that
4 appears
6 appears 6
Atleast 2 appears
Zero appears
Prime number appears
Even appears
Odd appears
Question 2: Two dice are rolled, Find the probability that
Sum of both is 7
Their sum is 12 6 x 6 = 36
Their sum is 14
Their sum is even number
Their Sum is odd
Their sum is 4
Their product is 2
Their product is 12
Their product is 24
Duplet numbers What about rolling 3
Duplet even numbers or more dices?
Duplet odd numbers
Play!
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Probability of Cards:
Black Red
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Example: A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability that
Card is a number card
Card is a club card
Card is a king card
Queen card
Face card
Red number card
Black number card
Danger!
Black ace card
Do Not Try At Home!
An ace card
Diamond King Card
Red queen card
Black heart card
Red club card
Card of number 5
Black jack card
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Laws of Probability:
1) Addition Law
2) Multiplication Law
1) Addition Law
Occurrence of only one event
or, atleast, atmost, neither, nor
Mutually Exclusive Event (MEE):
Event not occur together
Nothing Common
P (AUB) = P (A) + P(B)
Not Mutually Exclusive Event (NMEE):
Events occur together
Common
P (AUB) = P (A) + P(B) – P (A B)
Example 1: From a pack of 52 cards a card is drawn, find the probability of drawing
i) An ace or face card (MEE)
4/52 + 12/52 = 16/52
ii) Ace or black card (NMEE)
4/52 + 26/52 – 2/52 = 28/52
iii) Face or red card:
iv) Queen or diamond card
v) King or spade card
vi) Queen or number card
vii) Jack or king card
Example 2: A class contains 10 men and 20 women out of which half of the men and half of the women
have brown eyes. Find probability that
i) A person chosen at random is a man or has brown eyes.
10/30 + 15/30 – 5/30 = 20/30
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Men Women Total
ii) A person chosen at random is women or other eyes
iii) A person chosen at random is a man or other eyes. Brown 5 10 15
iv) A person chosen at random is women or brown eyes. eyes
V) A person selected from men has brown eyes. Other 5 10 15
(5/10) eyes
Total 10 20 30
2) Multiplication Law
Probability of both events
and, both
Independent Event:
P (A B) = P (A) x P (B)
Dependent Event:
P (A B) = P (A) x P (A/B)
P (A B) = P (A) x P (B/A)
Example 1: From a pack of 52 cards, two cards are drawn one after another with replacement.
Find probability that
i) Both are King: (KK)
4/52 x 4/52 = 1/169
Independent
ii) One is Ace other is Queen.
AQ + QA
(4/52 x 4/52) + (4/52 x 4/52) = 2/169
iii) 1st is Ace and 2nd is Queen.
AQ = 1/169
Example 2: A bag contains 5 Red and 3 Green balls. Two balls are selected one after another with
replacement. Find probability that
i) Both are Green
GG
ii) One is Red other is Green
RG + GR Independent
iii) Both are Red:
RR
iv) Atleast one is red
RG + GR + RR
v) No one is Red
GG
vi) Atmost both are Red
RR + RG + GR + GG
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Example 3:
From a pack of 52 cards 2 cards are drawn without replacement. Find Probability that
i) Both are King
4/52 x 3/51 = 1/221
ii) One is Ace other is Queen Dependent
AQ + QA
(4/52 x 4/51) + (4/52 x 4/51) = 8/663
iii) 1st is Ace 2nd is Queen
AQ = 4/52 x 4/51
iv) Both are Queen
Practice Now
Question 1: One integer is chosen from 1, 2, 3, ….. 50. What is the probability that
i) It is divisible by 7
ii) It is divisible by 9 or 14
iii) It is divisible by 6 or 8.
Question 2: In a group of 22 persons, 4 out of 7 women and 6 out of 15 men wear glasses. What is the
probability that a person chosen at random is a
i) Women or someone who not wear glasses.
7/22 + 12/22 – 3/22 = 16/22
ii) Man or someone who wear glasses
iii) Women who wear glasses,
4/22
iv) Person selected from men who not wear glasses.
9/15
Question 3:
If 75% people use cell phones. 15% use PTCL and 10% use both of them. Find probability that a
person chosen at random
i) Not use both of them
20% Use Not use Total
ii) Use both of them PTCL PTCL
10% Use Cell 10% 65% 75%
iii) Use PTCL only
5% Not use 5% 20% 25%
iv) Use Cell only. Cell
65% Total 15% 85% 100%
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Question 4.
A Committee is to be formed of 4 members from a total of 13 people. 5 from Punjab, 2 from
Balochistan, 4 from Sindh and 2 from KPk. What is the probability that committee contain
i) All members from Balochistan:
Balochistan Others Total
ii) None from Punjab: 2 11 13
2 2 4
iii) Atmost 2 from Sindh:
iv) Atleast 1 from KPK:
v) All from Punjab
Question 5:
The Probability that A will alive after 15 years to come is 4/5 and for B it is 6/9. Find Probability
that
i) Both of them will alive:
AxB
ii) Both will die: A=4/5
̅ ̅ ̅ 𝟏/𝟓
𝑨
iii) A alive B dead:
A ̅ B= 6/9
iv) Atleast one will alive: ̅ 3/9
𝑩
A̅ ̅
v) Atmost one will alive:
A̅ ̅ ̅̅
Question 6:
A and B plays four games of Chess. A’s chances of winning the game is 7/10. What is the
probability that A wins three games consecutively only and lose the remaining one?
̅̅̅ + ̅̅̅ G Won
̅ Lost (0.2058)
Question 7:
Three students appeared in the examination with the following probability to pass the exam
Student Passing probability
A 9/10
B 8/10
C 7/10
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i) What is the probability that none of the student pass the exam?
̅ ̅ ̅ (0.006)
ii) Only A and B will pass the exam.
(0.216)
iii) All three students will pass the exam.
Question 8:
The Probability of Rain on first three days of August is as follows
Days Probability of Rain
Day 1 3/10
Day 2 If rain on day 1 : 5/10
If no rain on day 1: 2/10
Day 3 If rain on day 1 and day 2: 9/10
If rain on day 1 only : 5/10
If rain on day 2 only : 3/10
If no rain on both days: 5/10
i) What is the probability of rain on all three days:
3/10 x 5/10 x 9/10 (0.135)
ii) What is the probability of rain on second day only?
̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅ ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
7/10 x 2/10 x 7/10 (0.098)
iii) What is the probability of rain on first and third day?
( ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅ ) ( )
(3/10 x 5/10 x 5/10 ) + ( 3/10 x 5/10 x 9/10)
(0.210)
iv) What is the probability of rain on first and third day only?
̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
3/10 x 5/10 x 5/10 (0.075)
v) What is the probability of rain on atleast 2 out of 3 days?
( ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅) ( ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅ ) (̅̅̅̅̅̅̅ ) (
)
(0.267)
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