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Conditional Probability
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Conditional Probability
Although random events characterize life, they are either independent or dependent.
Independent events do not rely on each other to occur; for instance, tossing a fair coin. Chances
of getting either the head or the tails are independent events with a 50% chance each.
Conversely, dependent events are congruent - one event relies on another having transpired to
occur; for instance, the chances of taking out a colored marble from a bag with two red marbles
and three blue marbles changes with each removal. Conditional probability is one of the most
fundamental probability theories. Conditionally probable events do not need to exhibit a causal
relationship or co-occur to qualify as dependent events. Conditional probability is one of the
most fundamental and vital probability theories that measures the possibility of an event
transpiring provided another event (presumptively, assumptively assertively, or evidently) has
occurred already.
Conditional probability measures the chances of one event occurring, provided another
event has already occurred. The conditional probability of an event F occurring contingent on an
event G having already occurred is the probability of G given F, written as P(G|F) (Blitzstein &
Hwang, 2019). Therefore, P(G|F) is the product of F’s probability and the probability of G
divided by the F’s probability itself. Related to Bayes’ theorem, the conditional probability of an
event G contingent on event F is denoted thus:
P ( F ∩G)
P(G|F) =
P( F)
Where
P(G|F) is the conditional probability of an event G transpiring provided an event F has
occurred already
P(F∩G) is the probability that both events F and G occur.
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P(F) is the probability of an event F.
The equation is only valid when P(F) is more than zero.
For instance, in a card game where a player must draw two cards of the same suit to win
the game, if the player draws diamonds in the first draw, the chances of drawing the second
diamond from the remaining suit of 12 cards will be:
P (Draw a second diamond| first diamond)
=12/51
In the first draw, the player drew a diamond leaving 12 diamonds to draw from in the
second draw
As such, the chances of a second draw being diamonds depends on the first draw being a
diamond, which explains why the second draw is out of 12 (contingent on the first draw)
Conditional probability also applies to more than two events. In such cases, one must
consider the probability of all preceding events. For instance, in the case of three events
P (F and G and H) = P(F) P(G|F) P (H| F and G) (Steyer & Nagel, 2017). For example, if a
student determines that he or she has an 80% chance of acceptance into college, the school may
only provide dormitory housing to 60% of these accepted students. Out of those with dormitory
housing, 80% of them have a probability of getting a roommate. Therefore, this student’s chance
of getting accepted, receiving dormitory housing, and not having a roommate is:
P (Acceptance and Dormitory Housing and Without Roommates) = P(Acceptance) P
(Dormitory housing| Acceptance) P (Without Roommates| Dormitory Housing and
Acceptance)
= (0.80) x (0.60) x (0.20)
= 0.096
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=Therefore, the student has about a 0.10 or 10% chance of getting a room alone in
college.
Conditional probability is a fundamental and essential probability theory that measures an
event’s chances of occurring depending on another event occurring prior. Despite the
randomness of events in life, they are either dependent or dependent. Independent events are not
congruent, while dependent events are congruent. Dependent events do not necessarily need to
coincide or show a causal relationship to be conditionally probable. The probability of an event
P ( F ∩G)
G given F occurs is P(G|F) = . Conditional probability also applies to more than two
P( F)
events.
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References
Blitzstein, J. K., & Hwang, J. (2019). Introduction to probability. CRC Press.
Steyer, R., & Nagel, W. (2017). Probability and conditional expectation: fundamentals for the
empirical sciences. Wiley.