Extinction Risk

Extinction
• Through evolutionary time diversity
has been increasing
• Not a constant increase
• Periods of high rates of speciation
followed by lags, & episodes of mass
extinction
• 5 mass extinction are present in fossil
record
• 65 myo extinction of dinosaurs during
Late Cretaceous
• 250 myo end of Permian 95% of all
marine animal species & ½ of all animal
families
• Volcanic eruption, asteroid, enormous
methane release from ocean – changed
climate
Extinction
• Extinctions happen so why do we
care about species loss?
• Our current rate of extinction far
surpasses speciation rates
• >99% of modern species
extinctions linked to human activity
• Sixth extinction episode – caused
by human activities rather than
natural disasters (Anthropocene)
• Ex. 13% of birds, 25% of mammals,
40% of amphibians threatened etc.
Extinct?
• Extinct – after a thorough search
no member of the species is found
alive in the world
• Extinct in the wild – alive only in
captivity
• Locally extinct or extirpated – no
longer found in a specific area but
still found elsewhere in the wild
• Functionally or ecologically extinct
– species persists at reduce
numbers that its community
impacts are negligible
• Extant – still living
The current, human-caused mass extinction
• Humans intentionally alter
landscapes for their own benefit
(this is not new)
• Deliberately burned savannas at
least 50,000 ya
• Extinction of 80% of megafauna
in Australia & North & South
America went extinct post
human colonization
 The current, human-caused mass extinction
• How much have we lost in the last 2000 • Stick insect (Dryococelus australis)
years? driven to extinction on Lord Howe
• Extinction rates for obvious species better Island in Australia – rats from ships
understood • Found some similar stick insects on
• Birds, mammals another island
• Critically endangered or extinct • Used DNA to confirm same species
• 3.7 % of mammals
• 8.1% of amphibians
• Most human-caused extinctions in last
150 years
• Rates of species lost declined since 1950
• How do we know if it is extinct?
• Sometimes hard to find
• Sometimes they are re-discovered!
The current, human-caused mass extinction
• Extinction debt – the presumed
eventual loss of species
following habitat loss &
fragmentation
• Ex. estimated 9% of
Madagascar’s species will go
extinct from habitat destruction
that has already occurred
 Local extinctions
• Local extinctions - Extinctions in
part of a species range (range
contraction)
• Alter community structure &
ecosystem functioning
• Important warning signs that
something is wrong in the
environment
• Can sometimes be reversed with
species reintroductions
Extinctions in Aquatic environments
• Marine
• Pollution & overharvest
• Many whales & large fish have
declined by 90% & are in danger
of extinction
• Many marine mammals are top
predators (as are sharks) and
could have major effects on
community structure
Extinctions in Aquatic environments
• Freshwater
• Threats: dams, pollution,
irrigation projects, invasive
alien species, habitat
degradation
• In NA:
• 1/3 of freshwater fish are in
danger of extinction
• ~50% of mussel species
imperiled or extinct
• ~51% of crayfish extinct,
critically imperiled, or
vulnerable
Background extinction rates
• Estimates are from wide-ranging
• Estimated from fossil record marine mammals – could be a little
• On average a species lasts 1-10 biased
million years (extinction or • Maybe higher for species with a
speciation) narrower range
• About 10 million species currently • Current rate for birds & mammals is
• Predict 1-10 lost per year 0.01% per year
• OR 0.0001% - 0.00001% per year • 100-1000 times > than background rate
• Ex. 100 species of birds and mammals
went extinct from 1850-1950
• Prediction would be 1 species, so we
lost another 99 due to human impacts
Extinction rate predictions – Island Biogeography
• Island biogeography model
• MacArthur & Wilson 1967
• Built to explain species-area relationship
• Rate of immigration determined by
distance from source of immigrants
(mainland)
• Rates of extinction determined by island
size
• Bigger islands have 1) more habitat
heterogeneity & higher population sizes
• Ex. large near islands = greatest #
• & small far the least #
Extinction rate predictions – Island Biogeography
Extinction rates & habitat loss
• Insular biogeography – explores
diversity in isolated communities
• Species-area relationship also
applies to all “islands”

• Mountain tops, ponds, patches

of habitat
• Reserves
Extinction rates & habitat loss
• Predictions of extinction rates • 1) Species may be given
based on habitat loss vary additional protections if
• Species-area relationship is unique threatened
• Dire predictions for extinctions • 2) Time not calculated – maybe
• BUT they don’t seem to be just not gone yet
happening that fast….. • 3) Some places (ex. New
England) have had some
recovery – refuges
• Why….? • Maybe this provides a window to
conserve them?
 Vulnerability to Extinction
• There are features that increase a
species risk of extinction
• Better to predict than wait until
decline is happening – possibly too
late
• Narrow geographic range
• Endemic species (likely have one or a
few pops)
• Ex. birds on oceanic island, fish in one
lake or watershed
• Ex. Haleakala silverswords – found
only on Haleakala Volcano, on the
island of Maui, Hawaii
Vulnerability to Extinction
• Only one of a few populations
• Increased risk of chance extinction
• Linked with previous feature
• Small population size
• More vulnerable to loss of genetic
diversity
• Large predators or extreme
specialists
Vulnerability to Extinction
• Island habitat
• Often have 1) limited ranges, 2)
small pops, 3) small # of pops
• Evolved with limited # of
competitors, predators, &
pathogens - vulnerable
• Extinction cascade – loss of co-
adapted species
• Plants losing pollinators
Vulnerability to Extinction
• Hunting or harvesting by people
• Overharvesting – thylacines &
dodos
• Large home range
• Needs to forage over large range
• Wildebeest & African elephants
• Large body size
• Large ranges & low reproductive
rates
• Large animals are more vulnerable
to habitat fragmentation
Vulnerability to Extinction
• Slow reproduction
• Low number of
offspring/reproductive event
• Often overlaps with large body size
• Slow growth rates, late sexual
maturity, long gestation, long
intervals between reproductive
events
• Cannot easily compensate for
increased mortality
• Elephants, rhinos, gorillas, whales,
giraffes
Vulnerability to Extinction
• Limited dispersal ability
• Anthropogenic impacts occur
rapidly – not enough time to for
evolutionary adaptation – must
disperse instead
• If species cannot cross poor habitat
to get to better habitat
• Especially important in aquatic
habitats
• Dams, point source pollution,
channelization, sedimentation
• Mussels & snails
Vulnerability to Extinction
• Seasonal migration
• Migratory species depend on 2 or
more habitats
• Barriers can impact dispersal
• Salmon, migratory birds
• Little genetic variation
• Genetic variation allows species to
adapt to changing environment
• Low tolerance for disturbance
• Require old growth forests
• Alterations change environmental
characteristics + invasive species
Vulnerability to Extinction
• Permanent or temporary
aggregations
• Vulnerable to local extinctions
• Salmon, bison, passenger pigeons,
schools of spawning fish
• Overharvest
• Allee effect –interaction between
population size & density &
growth - animals cannot persist
when pop falls below certain
threshold – cannot forage, defend
themselves, find mates
 Vulnerability to Extinction
• No prior contact with people
• People are a threat & so are invasive
species associated with them
• Close relative that are recently
extinct or threatened
• Some groups are vulnerable &
members share these characteristics
• Cranes, sea turtles, orchids, primates
• Many of these characteristics
overlap
Problems of Small Populations
• Species with small populations are in increased danger of going extinct
• 3 reasons:
• 1) Loss of genetic diversity – related problems of inbreeding depression
& genetic drift
• 2) Demographic fluctuations due to random variations in birth & death
rates
• 3) Environmental fluctuations due to variation in predation,
competition, disease, and food supply as well as natural catastrophes
• Fires, floods, storms, droughts
Loss of genetic diversity
• A populations ability to adapt to
environmental changes depends on
genetic diversity
• Ex. in many plant pops – some
individuals carry alleles that
provide tolerance for high conc. of
toxic metals (e.g. zinc & lead)
• Small populations have low genetic
diversity
• New alleles can arise in pops
• Random mutations
• Migration of individuals from other
pops
Loss of genetic diversity
• Small pops – allele frequencies
can change significantly based
on random chance – separate
from natural selection
• Genetic Drift
Loss of genetic diversity
• Genetic Drift
Loss of genetic diversity
• Loss of heterozygosity – • H0 = original heterozygosity
proportion of individuals with 2 • H1 = heterozygosity remaining after
different alleles for a gene each generation
• If we assume 2 alleles for a gene • H1 = [1-1/(2Ne)] H0
• Wright (1931) • Ex. 50 breeding individuals
• Proportion of original heterozygosity
remaining after each generation • H1 = (1-1/100)1 = 0.99
• Includes Effective population size • After 1 generation remaining
(Ne) – size of pop as estimated by # of heterozygosity would be 99%
breeding individuals
• Successive generations
• Ht/ H0 = (H1)t
Loss of genetic diversity
• H0 = original heterozygosity • So after 10 generations
• H1 = heterozygosity remaining after • 0.99^10 = 90%
each generation
• Ex. 10 breeding individuals
• H1 = [1-1/(2Ne)] H0
• H1 = (1-1/20)1 = 0.95
• Ex. 50 breeding individuals
• H1 = (1-1/100)1 = 0.99 • After 1 generation 95%
• After 1 generation remaining
heterozygosity remaining
heterozygosity would be 99% • So after 10 generations
• Successive generations • 0.95^10 = 60% heterozygosity
• Ht/ H0 = (H1)t remaining
Loss of genetic diversity
• Can increase genetic variation 2
ways
• Mutations
• Rates vary
• Can make up for genetic drift in
large pops
• But not in pops <100
• Migration of individuals from
other populations (Gene flow)
 Loss of genetic diversity
• Migration of individuals from
other populations (Gene flow)
• 1 or 2 immigrants each generation
in pop of 100 can greatly reduce
impact of genetic drift
• 4-10 immigrants – effects of
genetic drift are negligible
Loss of genetic diversity
• Consider:
• Habitat Fragmentation
• Metapopulations
• Important in captive breeding
• Assisted immigration – wildlife
biologists transplant individuals
from one pop to another
Consequences of reduced genetic diversity
• Inbreeding depression
• Matings between close relatives
• Individual receives 2 identical
copies of defective allele from each
parent
• Higher mortality of offspring, fewer
offspring, weak or sterile offspring,
offspring with low mating success
• = fewer individual in next
generation = ↑inbreeding
depression
Consequences of reduced genetic diversity
• Outbreeding depression
• If a species is rare, new species
introduced, barrier removed, it may
breed with a member of a different
species or subspecies
• Weakness, sterility, lack of
adaptability
• Common in plants
• Opposite of hybrid vigor
• Genetic rescue – intentional
hybridization to prevent complete
extinction
Factors that determine effective population size
• Effective population size (Ne) - # of • Ex. oaks
breeding individuals • 20 mature trees
• Many individuals do not reproduce • 500 saplings
• Inability to find a mate • 2000 seedlings
• Too old or too young • N = 2520
• Poor health • Ne = 20
• Sterility
• Malnutrition
• Small body size • Ex. alligators
• Plants & fungi – seeds or spores in • 990 immature individuals
soil • 10 adults
• Ne often < N (actual pop size) • N = 1000
• Ne = 10
Factors that determine effective population size

• Other factors affect Ne

• Unequal sex ratios
• Due to: chance, selective mortality,
overharvesting
• Ex. monogamous goose species
• 20 males
• 6 females
• Ne = 12
• Can also be due to social system
• Ex. dominant males get a harem
• Elephant seals, elk, gorillas,
• Ex. dominant female bears all offspring
• African wild dogs, hyenas
Factors that determine effective population size
• Unequal sex ratios • Consider for some taxa temp
• Effect of unequal F vs M determines sex
• Ne = [4(NfNm)] / (Nf +Nm) • Climate change can cause
unequal sex ratios
• As sex ratio becomes
increasingly unequal Ne : N • What happens to pop?
declines
• # of individuals contributing to
genetics of next generation
declines
Factors that determine effective population size
• Variation in reproductive output
• # of offspring varies between
individuals
• Pronounced in fecund species –
plants & fish
• A few individuals will be
disproportionately represented in
the gene pool of next gen.
• Greater variation in reproductive
output the lower effective
population size
Factors that determine effective population size
• Populations fluctuations & • Ex. butterfly pop
bottlenecks • Monitored for 5 years – has 10,
• Populations can vary greatly 20, 100, 20, 10 breeding
from gen to gen individuals
• Ne is closer the smallest # rather • Ne = 5/(1/10 + 1/20 + 1/100 +
than the largest 1/20 + 1/10) = 16.1
• Ne = t / (1/N1 + 1/N2 + …+1/Nt) • Ne is above lowest (10) but well
• Period of t years below max (100) & average (32)
Factors that determine effective population size
• 1 year of reduced pop will
greatly lower Ne
• Population bottleneck
• Loss of rare alleles
• Lower heterozygosity
• Fitness of pop may decline
• Iberian lynx
• 3 bottlenecks
• Current Ne <200
Factors that determine effective population size
• Founder effect
• Individuals leave one pop &
found another
• New pop has less genetic
diversity
• Bottlenecks can occur from
fragmentation
Factors that determine effective population size
The impact of stochasticity
• Stochasticity • Population size
• Random variation – in biological or • Carrying capacity – K
physical environment • Birth rate – b
• Can disproportionately affect small • Death rate – d
populations

• Pop increases to K & b=d & pop

stable
• BUT real life has variation
• As long as pop is large this mostly
holds true
The impact of stochasticity
• Demographic variation or • Habitat destruction or
demographic stochasticity fragmentation → smaller pop
• Variation in pop size due to • Demographic variation becomes
random variation in b & d more important
• If pop drops because of variation • Allee effect
in b & d → smaller pop → more • Species with low birthrates
susceptible to negative effects of
fluctuation in following year • Unequal sex ratio
• If pop <50 can cause extinction
The impact of stochasticity
• Environmental stochasticity
• Random variation in biological &
physical environment
• Affects all individuals in pop
• Disproportionately affects small
pops
• Variation in rainfall, predation,
competition
• Droughts, floods, storms, fires
etc.
 The extinction vortex
• The smaller a pop
becomes the more
vulnerable to:
• Low genetic diversity
• Inbreeding
depression
• Genetic drift
• Demographic
variation
• Environmental
stochasticity
• = gets smaller &
smaller → extinction