‭Table of Contents‬

‭ able of Contents‬
T ‭‬
1
‭Features of Populations (3-41)‬ ‭4‬
‭r-Selected and K-selected Species (3-42)‬ ‭10‬
‭Survivorship Curves (3-43)‬ ‭17‬
‭Life Tables and Survivorship‬ ‭21‬
‭Modeling Human Survivorship (3-45)‬ ‭25‬
‭Life Expectancy (3-46)‬ ‭29‬
‭Carrying Capacity (3-47)‬ ‭33‬
‭A Case Study in Carrying Capacity (3-48)‬ ‭37‬
‭Population Growth (3-49)‬ ‭40‬
‭Patterns of Population Growth (3-50)‬ ‭44‬
‭Modeling Population Growth (3-51)‬ ‭49‬
‭Populations and Resources (3-52)‬ ‭52‬
‭Population Age Structure (3-53)‬ ‭57‬
‭World Population Growth (3-54)‬ ‭63‬
‭Factors Affecting Human Population Dynamics (3-55)‬ ‭70‬
‭Demographic Transition (3-56)‬ ‭73‬
‭The End‬ ‭79‬
 ‭Features of Populations (3-41)‬
‭Features of Populations‬
‭ ey Question: What are the attributes of populations and what distinguishes specialist and‬
K
‭generalist species?‬
‭ he statistical study of populations is called demography. Demographers are concerned about‬
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‭population attributes that can be measured or calculated to provide information about the‬
‭population. Such attributes include aspects of population composition, distribution and‬
‭abundance, and dynamics (below). It is also useful to understand the characteristics of a species‬
‭in terms of its resource needs, i.e. is it a generalist or a specialist? This information, when used in‬
‭conjunction with an understanding of population dynamics, can help to evaluate a population's‬
‭risk of extinction.‬

‭Generalist vs specialist species‬

‭●‬ P
‭ opulation management requires information not only about the dynamics of the‬
‭population in question, but also the biological characteristics of the species as a‬
‭whole. Organisms can be broadly categorized as generalists or specialists. Generalists‬
‭thrive in a wide range of habitats and are able to exploit a wide range of resources in‬
‭order to meet their requirements. Specialists on the other hand have specific, narrow‬
‭resource needs in terms of habitat and food.‬
‭●‬ O
‭ rganisms do not generally fit neatly into one or other of these categories. Specialists‬
‭and generalists exist along a continuum from highly specialized to broadly-generalist‬
‭species. Even within a single taxon, such as butterflies (below), we can recognize‬
‭specialists and generalists based on aspects of their life history and feeding‬
‭preferences.‬

‭●‬ I‭ n a study of butterfly community structure, the proportions of specialists and‬

‭generalist species were determined for habitats with varying amounts of human‬
‭disturbance. Species were classified as generalists or specialists on the basis of larval‬
‭diet breadth and number of generations per year. Specialists had one generation per‬
‭year and a narrow range of host plants. A number of species were intermediate in‬
‭their strategy (images below).‬
‭●‬ ‭Generalists had a wide and continuous distribution and were often the dominant‬
‭species, whereas specialists were restricted and fragmented in their distribution and‬
‭were generally rare.‬
‭Questions‬
‭1.‬ D
‭ escribe one example of a population attribute that would be a good indicator of each of‬
‭the following:‬
‭a.‬ ‭Whether the population is increasing or decreasing:‬

‭b.‬ ‭The ability of the environment to support the population:‬

‭2.‬ ‭Answer the following questions:‬

‭a.‬ ‭Identify the population attributes that can be measured directly from the‬
‭population:‬

‭b.‬ ‭Identify the population attributes that must be calculated from the data collected:‬

‭3.‬ ‭Explain the value of population sampling for each of the following situations:‬
‭a.‬ ‭Conservation of a population of an endangered species:‬

‭b.‬ ‭Management of a fish stock:‬

‭4.‬ ‭Examine the scatter plot of butterfly species richness. Describe the pattern in the data for:‬
‭a.‬ ‭Total species richness:‬

‭b.‬ ‭Number of generalist species:‬

‭c.‬ ‭Number of specialist species:‬

‭5.‬ E
‭ xplain this pattern in terms of the characteristics of generalist and specialist outlined in‬
‭the table above:‬
 ‭r-Selected and K-selected Species (3-42)‬
‭r-Selected and K-Selected Species‬
‭ ey Question: What are the characteristics of r-selected and K-selected species and what do‬
K
‭these terms mean?‬
‭ he maximum rate at which a population can grow is called its‬‭biotic potential (r)‬‭. It is a‬
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‭measure of reproductive capacity and is assigned a value that is specific to the organism‬
‭involved. Species with high biotic potentials are called r-selected species. Their life history‬
‭strategy is to maximize reproduction at an early age and many are generalists in unpredictable‬
‭environments. In contrast, K-selected species have lower biotic potentials and exist as specialists‬
‭at or near the carrying capacity of the environment (K). Their life history strategy is to maximize‬
‭competitive ability over a longer life.‬

‭r- and K selection and life history strategy‬

‭●‬ O
‭ rganisms can be grouped according to how they allocate their resources to growth‬
‭and reproduction. A suite of characteristics are correlated with species that are either‬
‭"r-selected" or "K-selected".‬
‭●‬ K ‭ = the carrying capacity of the environment‬‭. This is the number of individuals‬
‭that the environment can support indefinitely.‬
‭●‬ ‭r = biotic potential‬‭. This is the potential of the‬‭species to increase in number.‬
‭Different species have different biotic potentials as part of their biology. You will‬
‭learn more about terms later in this chapter as they are important in models of‬
‭population growth.‬
‭●‬ ‭In reality, species exist along an‬‭r-K continuum‬‭and‬‭may show some r-selected and‬
‭some K-selected traits. Their life history reflects the strategy that results in highest‬
‭fitness int he prevailing environment.‬
‭Flexible strategists‬
‭●‬ S ‭ mall species with rapid reproductive rates, such as mice, are generally categorized‬
‭as r-strategists, and long-lived slow growing species, such as elephants, are‬
‭considered to be K-strategists. However, under certain conditions, individuals may‬
‭shift towards one or other strategy.‬
‭●‬ ‭Meadow voles (also called field mice) are typically an r-selected species. In meadow‬
‭voles, the average lifespan is less than one month because of high juvenile mortality‬
‭and they typically show large cycles (fluctuations) in population numbers. However,‬
‭beach voles on Muskeget Island (MA), a closely related species, do not show large‬
‭population cycles and exhibit attributes of K-selected organisms, such as larger size,‬
‭later age at maturation, stable populations, and low reproductive output.‬
‭●‬ ‭Muskeget Island lacks mammalian predators, which normally prey on voles during‬
‭dispersal phase. The absence of mammalian predators has seen a shift in the strategy‬
‭towards maintaining a more stable population of longer-lived individuals.‬
‭ igures: Seasonal population variation in beach voles on Muskeget Island and mainland meadow‬
F
‭vole (below).‬
‭r-selected species are colonizers in ecological successions‬
‭●‬ T ‭ he characteristics of r-selected species mean that they typically dominate in early‬
‭successional communities. As the succession develops over time, these early‬
‭colonizers are replaced by species with more K-selected traits. In a mature‬
‭community, K-selected species are relatively more common, although moderate‬
‭disturbances occur naturally in all communities allow colonizing (pioneer) species to‬
‭maintain a presence.‬
‭●‬ ‭Scientists follow the succession of plant species on Mt. St. Helens, Washington,‬
‭following its eruption in 1980. They observed the typical pattern of increasing species‬
‭richness in the years following the eruption, with a steady decline in pioneer‬
(‭ r-selected) species, such as fireweed and hairy catsear (below), and an increase in‬
‭larger, shrubby mat forming species such as partridgefoot (below).‬
‭Questions‬

‭1.‬ ‭Compare the pattern of population fluctuation in the beach voles and meadow voles:‬

‭2.‬ H
‭ ow does the population data from the study of vole populations provide evidence for an‬
‭r-K continuum?‬

‭3.‬ D
‭ escribe features of r-selected organisms that explain their role as early pioneers in‬
‭ecological successions:‬

‭4.‬ ‭Answer the following questions:‬

‭a.‬ ‭Describe the pattern of plant diversity (species richness) on Mt. St. Helens in the‬
‭years following the eruption:‬

‭b.‬ ‭Describe the change in plant types following the eruption:‬

‭c.‬ B
‭ ased on the traits of r- and K- strategists, provide an explanation for the pattern‬
‭observed in the data:‬
 ‭Survivorship Curves (3-43)‬
‭Survivorship Curves‬
‭ ey Question: What are survivorship curves and what do they tell us about an organism's life‬
K
‭history strategy?‬
‭ survivorship curve is a graph showing age-specific mortality. It is obtained by plotting the‬
A
‭number of individuals of a particular age against time. Survivorship curves are standardized to‬
‭start at 1000 and, as the population ages, the number of survivors progressively declines. The‬
‭shape of a survivorship curve thus shows graphically at which life stages the highest mortality‬
‭occurs. Survivorship curves in many populations fall into one of three hypothetical patterns‬
‭(below). The late loss (Type I) curve is typical of populations in which individuals tend to live‬
‭out their physiological life span. Such species are typically K-strategists. In contrast, r-selected‬
‭organisms suffer most mortality in early life stages (a Type III curve). They compensate by‬
‭producing vast numbers of offspring. In Type II populations, mortality is evenly spread across all‬
‭life stages.‬
‭Hypothetical survivorship curves‬
‭Type I: Late loss‬
‭ ortality is very low for young and throughout most of adult life. Mortality increases rapidly in‬
M
‭old age. Examples: Humans (in developed countries) and other large mammals (e.g. big cats,‬
‭elephants).‬
‭Type II: Constant loss‬
‭ ortality is relatively constant through all life stages (no one age is more susceptible than‬
M
‭another). Examples: Some invertebrates, some birds, some annual plants, some lizards, and many‬
‭rodents.‬
‭Type III: Early loss‬
‭ ortality is very high during early life stages, followed by a low death rate for the few‬
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‭individuals reaching adulthood. Examples: Many fish (not mouth brooders), frogs, most plants,‬
‭and most marine invertebrates (e.g. oysters, barnacles).‬
‭ hese curves are conceptual models only, against which real life curves can be compared. Many‬
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‭species exhibit a mix of two of the three basic types.‬
‭Questions‬

‭1.‬ B
‭ ased on the survivorship curves presented above, what age groups suffer the highest‬
‭mortality in:‬
‭a.‬ ‭Type I curve:‬
 ‭b.‬ ‭Type II curve:‬

‭c.‬ ‭Type III curve:‬

‭2.‬ ‭Answer the following questions:‬

‭a.‬ ‭Identify the survivorship curve typical of an r-selected species:‬

‭b.‬ ‭Identify the survivorship curve typical of a K-selected species:‬

‭3.‬ D
‭ iscuss the following statement: "There is no standard survivorship curve for a given‬
‭species. The curve depicts the nature of a population at a particular time and place and‬
‭under certain environmental conditions":‬
 ‭Life Tables and Survivorship‬
‭Life Tables and Survivorship‬
‭Key Question: How can life tables be used as a tool for analyzing population dynamics?‬
‭ ife tables, such as those shown below, provide a summary of mortality for a population (usually‬
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‭for a group of individuals of the same age or cohort). The basic data are just the number (or‬
‭proportion) of individuals remaining alive at successive sampling times (the survivorship or Ix).‬
‭Life tables represent the data collected from real populations, so they are an important tool when‬
‭analyzing changes in populations over time. They can tell us what age groups in a population‬
‭suffer the most mortality and can provide information above lifespan and population age‬
‭structure. The survivorship (Ix) column of a basic life table is used to derive a survivorship‬
‭curve. In this activity, we will look at data from real populations to draw conclusions about the‬
‭general statements made about survivorship curves earlier.‬
‭Questions‬

‭1.‬ ‭Based on the Balanus data, identify the type of survivorship curve for this animal:‬

‭2.‬ ‭Answer the following questions:‬

‭a.‬ ‭Plot a survivorship curve for elk hinds based on the life table data provided,‬
‭Upload your graph:‬

‭b.‬ ‭Describe the survivorship curve for these large mammals:‬

‭3.‬ D
‭ o the life table data support the general statements made about survivorship curves‬
‭opposite? Explain:‬
 ‭Modeling Human Survivorship (3-45)‬
‭Modeling Human Survivorship‬
‭Key Question: How can historical data be used to examine changes in human survivorship?‬
‭ emeteries are an excellent place to study changes in demographics. Data collected from‬
C
‭headstones can be used to calculate the death rates and produce survivorship curves. It is also‬
‭possible to compare survivorship curves over different periods and see how certain factors (e.g.‬
‭war or advancements in medicine) have altered survivorship.‬
‭Death data males and females‬
‭ he data (below) represents age of death data for males and females collected over two different‬
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‭time periods; pre-1950 and post-1950. The pre-1950s was characterized by two world wars, and‬
‭the prevalence of diseases such as polio and tuberculosis. The post 1950s have also seen global‬
‭conflict, but to a lesser degree than the pre-1950 period. Many advances in medicine (e.g.‬
‭vaccines) and technology have been made during this time.‬
‭ he data used in this exercise has been collected from the online records of several cemeteries‬
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‭across five different states in the United states to provide representative data.‬

‭Questions‬
‭1.‬ C
‭ omplete the following table using the cemetery data provided. The males' pre-1950 data‬
‭have been completed for you.‬
‭a.‬ ‭In the number of deaths column, record the number of deaths for each age‬
‭category.‬

‭b.‬ C
‭ alculate the survivorship for each age category. For each column, enter the total‬
‭number of individuals in the study (30) in the 0-9 age survivorship cell. This is the‬
‭survivorship for the 0-9 age group. Subtract the number of deaths at age 0-9 from‬
‭the survivorship value at age 0-9. This is the survivorship at the 10-19 age‬
‭category. To calculate the survivorship for age 20-29, subtract the number of‬
‭deaths at the age 10-19 age category from the survivorship value for age 10-19.‬
‭Continue until you have completed the column.‬

‭2.‬ ‭Answer the following questions:‬

‭a.‬ ‭A - Construct a graph to compare the survivorship curves for each category.‬
‭Upload a screenshot of the graph.‬

‭b.‬ B
‭ - What conclusions can you make about survivorship before 1950 and after‬
‭1950?‬

‭c.‬ ‭C - What factors might cause these differences?‬

 ‭Life Expectancy (3-46)‬
‭Life Expectancy‬
‭Key Question: What is life expectancy and why does it vary?‬
‭ ife expectancy is the average number of years of life remaining at any given age and changes as‬
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‭an individual ages. For example, in the US, a human has a life expectancy of around 78 years at‬
‭birth. However, a 66 year old has a life expectancy of around 16 years meaning they should live‬
‭to the age of 82. In human societies, life expectancy depends on sex and on variable‬
‭socio-economic factors such as public health and level of poverty. Countries where war, famine,‬
‭or disease are common invariably have low life expectancies.‬

‭ uman populations typically exhibit Type I survivorship. However, average life expectancy can‬
H
‭vary greatly between developed and developing nations. The average life expectancy can be‬
‭estimated from the survivorship curves above as being the age at which 50% of individuals are‬
‭still alive.‬
‭ ife expectancy is linked to many factors but in human society there is a close correlation‬
L
‭between life expectancy and a country's per capita gross domestic product (GDP). Those‬
‭countries with high GDP can be expected to have citizens with long life expectancies.‬
‭ ar, civil instability, poor infrastructure, and poverty can greatly reduce life expectancy. Life‬
W
‭expectancy in stable, industrialized nations, e.g. Japan, can be around 80 at birth, while war-torn,‬
‭poor, or developing nations may have life expectancies as low as 39 at birth, e.g. Swaziland.‬
I‭ n developed nations, the infant mortality rate (IMR) is low because of better standards of living‬
‭and access to medicine. People in developing countries often lack access to medical care and the‬
‭IMR can be high, especially where there are high rates of endemic disease. However, populations‬
‭in developing countries often have high birth rates so that population growth rates remain high‬
‭despite a high IMR.‬

‭Questions‬

‭1.‬ L
‭ ife expectancy and survivorship of a population are closely linked to the wealth of the‬
‭country they live in:‬
‭a.‬ ‭Describe the relationship between a country's per capita GDP and life expectancy‬
‭of its citizens:‬

‭b.‬ ‭Explain why IMR might be linked to a nation's wealth:‬

‭c.‬ ‭Identify some factors that lower life expectancy and survivorship of a country:‬

‭2.‬ ‭Explain why life expectancy changes as one ages:‬

‭3.‬ ‭Estimate average life expectancy for:‬

‭a.‬ ‭United Kingdom‬

‭b.‬ ‭Gaza Strip:‬

‭c.‬ ‭Iraq:‬
 ‭Carrying Capacity (3-47)‬
‭Carrying Capacity‬
‭Key Question: What is carrying capacity and why is it important in studies of populations?‬
‭ n ecosystem's carrying capacity, i.e. the size of population that the available resources can‬
A
‭sustain indefinitely, is limited by the ecosystem's resources. Factors affecting carrying capacity‬
‭(population limiting factors) can be biotic (e.g. food supply) or abiotic (e.g. water, climate, and‬
‭available space). The carrying capacity is determined by the most limiting factor and can change‬
‭over time (e.g. as a result of environmental changes). A population below carrying capacity will‬
‭increase because resources are not limiting. As the population approaches its carrying capacity‬
‭(or exceeds it) resources become limiting and environmental resistance increases, decreasing‬
‭population growth. An understanding of carrying capacity is important to explaining population‬
‭fluctuations and patterns of population growth.‬
‭Limiting factors and carrying capacity‬
‭ imiting factors are factors that limit the growth, abundance, or distribution of an organism or a‬
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‭population. Which factor is limiting and its effect may change over time. Ultimately, changes in‬
‭limiting factors (such as water or food) operate by changing a habitat's carrying capacity. The‬
‭graph below shows how the carrying capacity of a steppe environment varies based on changes‬
‭to biotic and abiotic limiting factors.‬
‭1.‬ A ‭ small number of steppe voles move into an area of steppe. The population increase‬
‭quickly.‬
‭2.‬ ‭The population overshoots the carrying capacity.‬
‭3.‬ ‭Large numbers damage the environment and food becomes limiting. The carrying‬
‭capacity falls.‬
‭4.‬ ‭The population stabilizes at the new carrying capacity.‬
‭5.‬ ‭The steppe experiences a drought and carrying capacity is reduced.‬
‭Questions‬

‭1.‬ ‭Explain how changes in limiting factors alter carrying capacity?‬

‭2.‬ W
‭ hat limiting factors have changed at points 3, 5, and 6 in the graph, and how are they‬
‭changed?‬
‭a.‬ ‭3:‬

‭b.‬ ‭5:‬

‭c.‬ ‭6:‬

‭3.‬ ‭Explain what the scenario above illustrates about carrying capacity:‬
 ‭A Case Study in Carrying Capacity (3-48)‬
‭A Case Study in Carrying Capacity‬
‭Key Question: What evidence do we have for the carrying capacity of ecosystems?‬
‭ he introduction of wolves to Coronation Island, Alaska, was a classic example of an experiment‬
T
‭that failed in its aims but revealed a lot about the carrying capacity of ecosystems. Coronation‬
‭Island is a small island and includes 78 km2 of wilderness area. In 1960, the Alaska Department‬
‭of Fish and Game released two breeding pairs of wolves onto the island. Their aim was to control‬
‭the sitka black-tailed deer, which had been overgrazing the land. They had expected the wolves‬
‭would control the deer and the ecosystem would recover. What happened was entirely different.‬

‭The experiment and its results‬

I‭ ntroduction of the wolves in 1960 initially appeared to have the desired effect. The wolves‬
‭preyed on the abundant deer and bred successfully. Deer numbers fell dramatically (below).‬
‭However, within a few years the deer numbers completely crashed. The wolves ran out of food‬
‭(deer) and began eating each other. Within 8 years, only one wolf remained and deer were‬
‭abundant. By 1983, there were no wolves on the island, and the deer numbers were high.‬
‭What went wrong?‬
‭●‬ T ‭ he study showed Coronation Island was too small to sustain both wolf and deer‬
‭populations.‬
‭●‬ ‭The deer could not easily find refuge from the wolves, so their numbers were quickly‬
‭reduced.‬
‭●‬ ‭Reproductive rates in the deer may have been low because of poor forage following‬
‭years of overgrazing. When wolves were introduced, predation and low reproductive‬
‭rates, caused deer to decline.‬
‭●‬ ‭The deer were the only food source for the wolves. When deer became scarce the‬
‭wolves lacked other prey and resorted to cannibalism.‬
‭Questions‬

‭1.‬ W
‭ hy was the introduction of wolves to Coronation island considered a failure in terms of‬
‭its aims?‬

‭2.‬ ‭What factors contributed to the observed results?‬

‭3.‬ ‭What did the results tell ecologists about the carrying capacity of this ecosystem?‬
 ‭Population Growth (3-49)‬
‭Population Growth‬
‭Key Question: What factors are responsible for changes in population number?‬
‭ he number of individuals in a population (N) is calculated by knowing the gains and losses to‬
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‭the population. Births, deaths, immigrations (movements into the population) and emigrations‬
‭(movements out of the population) are events that together determine the number of individuals‬
‭in a population. Scientists usually measure the rate of these events, which are influenced by the‬
‭resources available and the biotic potential, which varies among species.‬
‭ irths, deaths, immigration (movements into the population) and emigration (movements out of‬
B
‭the population) are events that determine the population size. Population growth depends on the‬
‭number of individuals added to the population from births and immigration, minus the number‬
‭lost through deaths and emigration. This is expressed as:‬

‭ he difference between immigration and emigration gives net migration. Ecologist usually‬
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‭measure the rate of these events. These rates are influenced by limiting factors in the‬
‭environment (such as availability of food, water, or habitat) and by the characteristics of the‬
‭organisms themselves (their biotic potential or natural capacity to increase, r).‬
‭Rates in population studies are commonly expressed in one of two ways:‬
‭●‬ N ‭ umbers per unit time‬‭, e.g. 20, 150 live births per‬‭year. The birth rate is termed the‬
‭natality, whereas the death rate is the mortality.‬
‭●‬ ‭Per capita rate‬‭(number per head of population), e.g.‬‭122 live births per 100‬
‭individuals per year (12.2%).‬
‭ he human population is estimated at peak at around 9 billion by 2050 as a result of multiple‬
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‭factors, including falling birth rates. Humans have the technology and production efficiency to‬
‭solve many resource problems and so might appear exempt from the direct influence of limiting‬
‭factors. However, declining availability of water and land for food production are limiting factors‬
‭likely to constrain population growth, at least regionally.‬

‭Questions‬

‭1.‬ ‭Define the following terms used to describe changes in population numbers:‬
‭a.‬ ‭Death rate (mortality):‬

‭b.‬ ‭Birth rate (natality):‬

 ‭c.‬ ‭Net migration rate:‬

‭2.‬ ‭Explain how the concept of limiting factors applies to population biology:‬

‭3.‬ ‭Using the terms, B, D, I, and E, construct equations to express the following:‬
‭a.‬ ‭A population in equilibrium‬

‭b.‬ ‭A declining population:‬

‭c.‬ ‭An increasing population:‬

‭4.‬ A
‭ population started with a total number of 100 individuals. Over the following year,‬
‭population data were collected. Calculate birth rates, death rates, net migration rate, and‬
‭rate of population change for the data below (as percentages):‬
‭a.‬ ‭Births = 14: Birth rate =‬

‭b.‬ ‭Net migration = +2: Net migration rate =‬

‭c.‬ ‭Deaths = 20: Death rate =‬

‭d.‬ ‭Rate of population change =‬

‭e.‬ ‭State whether the population is increasing or declining:‬

 ‭Patterns of Population Growth (3-50)‬
‭Patterns of Population Growth‬
‭ ey Question: What do exponential and logistic patterns of growth look like and how does‬
K
‭carrying capacity limit the maximum population size that can be sustained?‬
‭ opulation growth is the change in a population's number over time (dN/dt or ΔN /Δt). It is‬
P
‭regulated by the carrying capacity (K), which is the maximum number the environment can‬
‭sustain. Population growth falls into two main patterns: exponential and logistic. Both can be‬
‭defined mathematically.‬‭Exponential‬‭growth‬‭occurs‬‭when resources are essentially unlimited‬
‭and produces a J shaped curve on a linear scale.‬‭Logistic‬‭growth‬‭begins exponentially, but slows‬
‭as the population approaches carrying capacity.‬

‭Exponential growth‬
‭ ecall the relationship between the factors determining population growth. If we want to‬
R
‭compare populations of different sizes, it is useful to express population parameters such as rates‬
‭of birth, death, and population growth on a‬‭per‬‭capita‬‭(per individual) basis.‬
‭ he maximum per capita rate of population increase under ideal conditions (or‬‭biotic‬‭potential‬‭)‬
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‭is called‬‭r‭m‬ ax‬‭. We can calculate this using a simple‬‭equation (below):‬

‭Exponential‬‭growth‬‭is then expressed as:‬

‭ xponential growth is‬‭density‬‭independent‬‭because‬‭per capita birth and death rates do not‬

E
‭depend on the population size. It is a typical pattern of population growth when a few individuals‬
‭enter a new area with unlimited resources, but it is rarely sustained.‬
‭ he biotic potential (recall this is the r‬‭max‬‭) is‬‭constant for any one species. However, in natural‬
T
‭populations, the per capita rate of increase (r) is usually lower than the r‬‭max‬ ‭because resource‬
‭limitation slows population growth. Organisms will show exponential growth if r is positive and‬
‭constant so the equation is often given simply as‬‭dN/dt = rN‬‭(below).‬
‭ ecall that gray wolves were hunted almost to extinction in many parts of North America. In the‬
R
‭1980s, following their protection under law, packs began to repopulate parts of the US from‬
‭Canada. The table below records the wolf population in Montana 1979-1995. Gray wolves were‬
‭removed from the endangered species list in 2011 and hunting has since recommenced.‬
‭Logistic growth‬
‭ opulations do not generally continue to grow unchecked. Their numbers generally stabilize‬
P
‭around a maximum that can be supported by the environment. This maximum number is called‬
‭the carrying capacity (K). As the population number approaches K, the resources required or‬
‭continued growth become limiting and there is increasing environmental resistance to further‬
‭expansion. As a result, the rate of population growth slows. If the change in number is plotted‬
‭over time, the curve is S shaped (sigmoidal), and the pattern of growth is called logistic. Logistic‬
‭growth is typical of populations that live at or near carrying capacity and per capita birth and‬
‭death rates are affected by population size (density dependent). Logistic growth is expressed as:‬
‭dN/dt = rN(KK-N/K).‬
‭Questions‬

‭1.‬ ‭Produce a line graph of the gray wolf population, Upload the graph:‬

‭2.‬ ‭What would explain the lag in population growth before 1999?‬

‭3.‬ ‭Explain why wolves showed this pattern of population growth:‬

‭4.‬ C
‭ ensus information provides a good test of the prediction of population growth models.‬
‭The table of data above records census data for the human population of West Virginia‬
‭1800-1900.‬
 ‭a.‬ B
‭ ased on what you know so far, what sort of curve would you predict for a new‬
‭settlement of humans? Explain:‬

‭b.‬ P
‭ lot the data, the axes have been labeled to help you, and upload your graph when‬
‭done.‬

‭c.‬ ‭Did the plotted curve agree with your predictions?‬

‭5.‬ U
‭ se mathematical reasoning to explain the differences between exponential and logistic‬
‭growth:‬
 ‭Modeling Population Growth (3-51)‬
‭Modeling Population Growth‬
‭ ey Question: How can a computer model help us to understand the factors affecting logistic‬
K
‭growth?‬
‭ lotting a logistic growth curve on a spreadsheet can help in understanding logistic growth and‬
P
‭the factors that affect population growth rate. In this exercise, you will create your own‬
‭spreadsheet model of logistic growth for a hypothetical population of 2, where r is 0.15 and K‬
‭100. You can use Microsoft Excel or an equivalent spreadsheet program.‬
‭Questions‬

‭1.‬ ‭Describe the shape of the curve you have plotted:‬

‭2.‬ ‭Around which time period does the curve on the spreadsheet above given to flatten out?‬

‭3.‬ U
‭ se the logistic equation and mathematical reasoning to explain the changes in‬
‭population growth rate (dN/dt):‬
 ‭Populations and Resources (3-52)‬
‭Populations and Resources‬
‭Key Question: How does the availability of resources influence population growth?‬
‭ he size of population can be altered by factors that may or may not be influenced by population‬
T
‭density (i.e. density dependent vs density independent). However, population growth is regulated‬
‭primarily by factors that alter the rates of birth and/or deaths. These regulatory factors, such as‬
‭competition for food, have a proportionately greater effect at higher population densities.‬
‭Density-independent factors, such as natural disasters, can severely limit growth, e.g. by‬
‭increasing death rates. Both density dependent and density independent factors can alter the‬
‭availability of resources and so directly or indirectly limit population growth and size.‬
‭Density-dependent and density-independent factors in populations‬

‭Density-dependent and density-independent factors can alter the availability of resources‬

I‭ n mammals, there is a strong relationship between population density, population fertility, and‬
‭population growth. For example, fertility in harp seals (above), as measured by numbers of‬
‭females breeding, is density dependent (above). Fertility declines were recorded at higher‬
‭densities when the population was more resource limited. This decline shows population growth.‬

‭ ensity-independent factors can act indirectly on population growth. Climatic events can be‬
D
‭unpredictable. A cold spring may kill oak flowers and cause the acorn crop to fail. Squirrels,‬
‭ hich depend on plentiful acorns, may then starve the following winter. The proximate cause of‬
w
‭starvation is the density of squirrels and lack of food, but the ultimate cause was climate related.‬
‭Population regulation in pronghorn antelope‬
‭●‬ T ‭ he Coronation Island example earlier in this unit showed how biotic factors can‬
‭influence population numbers. Abiotic factors are also important in regulating‬
‭population growth and size. Drought (lower than average rainfall) is one such factor‬
‭and can persist for many years.‬
‭●‬ ‭During the late 90s and early 2000s drought occurred in Arizona and New Mexico.‬
‭Researchers studied the effect of the drought on the ecosystem. In particular, they‬
‭wanted to know how populations were affected by changes to habitat and availability‬
‭of food and water. One of the aspects they investigated was how drought affected the‬
‭survival rate of pronghorn fawns in Arizona. Their results are shown in the table‬
‭below.‬
‭Questions‬

‭1.‬ E
‭ xplain how each of the following can influence the population growth through changes‬
‭to resource availability:‬
‭a.‬ ‭Density dependent factors:‬

‭b.‬ ‭Density independent factors:‬

‭2.‬ ‭Plot the tabulated rainfall and fawn survival data, then upload the graph.‬

‭3.‬ ‭Answer the following questions:‬

‭a.‬ ‭Describe the plot for rainfall over time:‬
‭b.‬ ‭Describe the fawn survival rate over time:‬

‭c.‬ ‭Describe the relationship between rainfall and fawn survival:‬

 ‭Population Age Structure (3-53)‬
‭Population Age Structure‬
‭ ey Question: What do population age diagrams tell us about the growth and sustainability of‬
K
‭populations?‬
‭ he age structure of a population refers to the relative proportion of individuals in each age‬
T
‭group in the population. The age structure of populations can be categorized according to‬
‭specific age group (e.g. years), or by other measures such as life stage (egg, larvae, pupae) or‬
‭size class (height or diameter in plants). Population growth is strongly influenced by age‬
‭structure. Population age structures are represented as diagrams (or pyramids), in which the‬
‭proportions of individuals in each age class are plotted with the youngest individuals at the‬
‭diagram's base. The number of individuals moving from one age class to the next influences the‬
‭age structure of the population from year to year. The loss of an age class (e.g. through‬
‭over-harvesting) can profoundly affect a population's ability to sustain itself.‬
‭Age structures in animal populations‬
‭ opulation growth is strongly influenced by age structure. A population with a high proportion‬
P
‭of reproductive and pre-reproductive aged individuals has a much greater potential for‬
‭population growth than one that is dominated by older individuals. These theoretical age‬
‭pyramids show how growing populations are characterized by a high ratio of young (white bar)‬
‭to adult age classes (blue bars). Aging populations with poor production are typically dominated‬
‭by older individuals.‬
‭ ost of the growth in human populations in recent years has been in the developing countries in‬
M
‭Africa, Asia, and Central and South America. This is reflected in their age structure. A large‬
‭proportion of the population is made up of individuals younger than 15 years (age pyramid‬
‭above). Even if each has fewer children, the population will continue to increase for many years‬
‭(a phenomenon known as population momentum). Compare this to the stable age structure of‬
‭ weden. In projections of human population growth for the rest of this century, Africa will be the‬
S
‭only world region still with strong population growth.‬
‭Age structure can be a tool in managing fisheries‬
‭ nalysis of a population's age structure can help in its management because it can indicate where‬
A
‭most of the mortality occurs and whether or not reproductive individuals are being replaced. The‬
‭age structure of plant and animal population can be assessed through an analysis of size which is‬
‭often related to age in a predictable way.‬
‭ he graphs below show the age structure of a hypothetical fish population under different fishing‬
T
‭pressures. The age structure of the population is determined by analyzing the fish catch to‬
‭determine the frequency of fish in each size (age) class.‬

‭Age structure can reveal the history of a population‬

‭ xamining a population's age structure from year to year can detect how the population might be‬
E
‭affected by stressors in the environment, such as drought and disease.‬
I‭ n Galapagos finches, reproductive activity and breeding success are determined by rainfall,‬
‭which governs food supplies. In 1982, rainfall on the island of Daphne Major was minimal and‬
‭in 1983 reproduction in the cactus ground finch failed. 1983 was an El Nino year, rainfall was‬
‭heavy, and reproduction was very successful. The changes in age classes for males and females‬
‭for breeding years 1983 and 1984 are shown below.‬

‭Questions‬

‭1.‬ ‭For the theoretical age pyramids above:‬

‭a.‬ ‭Determine the approximate ratio of young to adults in a rapidly increasing‬
‭population:‬

‭b.‬ E
‭ xplain how the age structure diagram for a population can provide information‬
‭about the population's growth rate:‬
‭2.‬ W
‭ hy are changes in population age structure alone not necessarily a reliable predictor of‬
‭population trends?‬

‭3.‬ W
‭ hy is the population of Mexico likely to continue to increase rapidly even if the rate of‬
‭population growth slows?‬

‭4.‬ W
‭ ith reference to the data above, explain why is it important to know the age structure of‬
‭a harvested population:‬

‭5.‬ A
‭ nswer the following with reference to the population age data presented for the cactus‬
‭ground finch on Daphne Major:‬
‭a.‬ ‭What was the effect of the 1982 drought on the age structure of the population in‬
‭1983?‬

‭b.‬ ‭How can you tell from the data that 1983's birds had good breeding success?‬

‭c.‬ ‭Describe what the data reveals about the population growth rate in:‬
‭i.‬ ‭1983:‬

‭ii.‬ ‭1984:‬
 ‭World Population Growth (3-54)‬
‭World Population Growth‬
‭ ey Question: What are the trends in world population growth and what factors predominate in‬
K
‭projections?‬
‭ or most of human history, humans have not been very numerous compared to other species. It‬
F
‭took all of human history to reach a population of 1 billion in 1803, but little more than 150 years‬
‭to reach 3 billion in 1960. The world's population, now at 7.8 billion, is growing at just over 1%‬
‭but this rate of growth is projected to decline (below). World population increase carries‬
‭important environmental consequences, particularly when it is associated with increasing‬
‭urbanization. Global population growth rates are declining however and the world population is‬
‭moving towards stabilization.‬
‭World Population Trends‬
‭ he graphs (below) illustrate some of the important current trends in human population‬
T
‭dynamics. Estimates of population growth are always uncertain and political, social, and‬
‭environmental changes all combine to affect population growth. However, for the first time in‬
‭modern human history, the world's population is expected to virtually stop growing.‬
‭Falling Fertility‬
‭ he slowing of population growth is due largely to falling global fertility rates. The global total‬
T
‭fertility rate (TFR) is expected to be 1.9 births per woman by 2100, down from the current 2.5‬
‭births per woman. This decline is associated with education of women, postponement of‬
‭marriage, and access to contraception. The rate is projected to fall below the replacement fertility‬
‭rate (2.1 births per woman) by 2070. The replacement fertility rate is the number of births per‬
‭woman needed to maintain a population's size. Projections of population growth are complicated‬
‭by the fact that countries with sub-replacement fertility may continue to grow because of‬
‭immigration, population momentum, increased life expectancy, and lower infant mortality.‬
‭ he world's median age is expected to increase to 42 in 2100, up from the current 31 and almost‬
T
‭double what it was in 1950. From 2073, there are projected to be more people ages 65 and older‬
‭than under age 15. This is the first time in human history this will be the case. Contributing‬
‭factors to the rise in the median age are the increase in life expectancy and falling fertility rates.‬
‭ frica is the only world region projected to have strong population growth for the rest of this‬
A
‭century. Six countries are projected to account for more than half of the world's population‬
‭growth through to the end of this century, and five are in Africa (Nigeria, the Democratic‬
‭Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Angola). The sixth country is Pakistan. Lagos‬
‭(below) is the most populous state in Nigeria and one of the fastest growing cities in the world.‬
‭Nigeria is a lower middle-income economy but over 89 million of its more than 200 million‬
‭people live in poverty.‬
‭ he world population has grown exponentially following advances in medicine and food‬
T
‭production. The numbers above show how this growth is apportioned between developed and‬
‭developing nations.‬
‭ or a population in exponential growth, the rule of 70 is a simple way to approximate population‬
F
‭doubling time. As the growth rate for humans is given in years, the calculated doubling time is‬
‭also in years.‬
‭70 \ % growth rate = population doubling time‬

‭Questions‬

‭1.‬ ‭Answer the following questions:‬

‭a.‬ ‭Plot a graph population numbers for developed and developing nations, upload‬
‭the graph.‬

‭b.‬ ‭Compare the pattern of growth in developing and developed nations:‬

‭2.‬ ‭Answer the following questions:‬
‭a.‬ ‭Use the rule of 70 to calculate the doubling time of the human population based‬
‭on the growth rate in 1950:‬

‭b.‬ H
‭ ow good was this approximation of doubling time for humans during this period‬
‭in history:‬

‭c.‬ N
‭ ow use the rule of 70 to calculate the doubling time of the human population‬
‭based on the growth rate in 2019:‬

‭d.‬ D
‭ oes this approximation of doubling time agree with current projections of world‬
‭population size? Explain:‬

‭3.‬ D
‭ escribe one environmental problem associated with the continued high population‬
‭growth rate projected for Africa:‬
 ‭Factors Affecting Human Population‬
‭Dynamics (3-55)‬
‭Factors Affecting Human Population Dynamics‬
‭ ey Question: What factors are currently affecting the growth and stability of the world's‬
K
‭nations?‬
‭ uman population growth is affected by the same density dependent and density independent‬
H
‭factors that affect all populations. Disease and lack of resources are important proximate causes,‬
‭but the ultimate causes are varied and complex. They include conflict and events associated with‬
‭climate change, such as crop failures and natural disasters.‬
‭Challenges to human sustainability‬
‭ he human population faces a large number of challenges in the coming decades. As described‬
T
‭earlier, global fertility rates are falling to sub-replacement levels in many countries. However, the‬
‭developing nations (where most population growth is projected to occur) are those where a large‬
‭proportion of the population live with severe food insecurity (without reliable access to sufficient‬
‭food). Widespread famines, such as those in Asia and Europe last century are rare today, but the‬
‭increasing impact of climate change and political conflicts make food insecurity an increasing‬
‭concern. Populations displaced by conflict, such as the population of Syria, are at particular risk,‬
‭and their displacement places pressure on the infrastructure of those countries that take them in.‬
‭When civil unrest coincides with natural disasters such as drought (as is occurring in Syria) the‬
‭effect on the population can be devastating. In Yemen, the 2020 humanitarian crisis has 80% of‬
‭its 24 million people in need of aid.‬
‭Questions‬
‭1.‬ D
‭ iscuss some of the challenges facing the human population as it continues to grow. In‬
‭your answer, consider which regions of the world will contribute to most of the projected‬
‭increase in the human population:‬
 ‭Demographic Transition (3-56)‬
‭Demographic Transition‬
‭ ey Question: What demographic changes occur as human populations move from developing to‬
K
‭developed societies?‬
‭ uman populations through time have undergone demographic shifts related to societal changes‬
H
‭and economic development. The demographic transition model (DTM) was developed in 1929 to‬
‭explain the transformation of countries from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth‬
‭rates and low death rates as part of their economic development from a developing to a‬
‭developed (post-industrial) economy. The original DTM recognized four stages, but more‬
‭recently, as some nations enter a stage of sub-replacement fertility, a fifth stage has been‬
‭proposed. Each stage of the transition reflects the changes in birth and death rates observed in‬
‭human societies over the last 200 years. Most developed countries are beyond stage three of the‬
‭model and the majority of developing countries are in stage two or stage three. The model was‬
‭based on the changes seen in Europe, so these countries follow the DTM relatively well. Many‬
‭developing countries have moved into stage three. The exceptions include some poor countries,‬
‭mainly in sub Saharan Africa and some Middle Eastern countries, which are affected by poverty,‬
‭poor government policy, or civil strife.‬
‭Stage 1‬‭: Birth and death rates are balanced but high‬‭as a result of starvation and disease.‬
‭Stage 2‬‭: Improvement in food supplies and public health‬‭result in reduced death rates and birth‬
‭rates are high.‬

‭Stage 3‬‭: Moves the population towards stability through‬‭a decline in the birth rate, as in this city‬
‭in Malaysia.‬
‭Stage 4‬‭: Birth and death rates are both low and the‬‭total population is high and stable. Argentina‬
‭is in Stage 4.‬
‭Stages‬
‭●‬ S ‭ tage 1 (high stationary)‬‭: A balance between birth‬‭and death rates as was true of all‬
‭populations until the late 18th century. Children are important contributors to the‬
‭household economy. Losses as a result of starvation and disease are higher.‬
‭Population growth is typically very slow in this stage, because it is constrained by the‬
‭available food supply. Unless the society develops new technologies to increase food‬
‭production, any fluctuations in birth rates are quickly matched by death rates. Today‬
‭there are no countries still in Stage 1.‬
‭●‬ ‭Stage 2 (early expanding)‬‭: Rapid population expansion‬‭as a result of high birth rates‬
‭and a decline in death rates. The changes leading to this stage in Europe were‬
‭initiated in the Agricultural Revolution of the 18th century but have been more rapid‬
‭in developing countries since then. Stage 2 is associated with more reliable food‬
‭supplies and improvements in public health. Countries in Stage 2 include much of‬
‭Sub-Saharan Africa, Iraq, Nauru, and Yemen.‬
‭●‬ ‭Stage 3 (late expanding)‬‭: The population moves towards‬‭stability through a decline‬
‭in the birth rate. This stage is associated with increasing urbanization and a decreased‬
‭reliance on children as a source of family wealth. Low infant mortality allows women‬
‭to have fewer children. Family planning in nations such as Malaysia (above) has been‬
‭instrumental in their move to Stage 3.‬
‭●‬ ‭Stage 4 (low stationary)‬‭: Birth and death rates are‬‭both low and the total population‬
‭is high and stable. The population ages and in some cases fertility is below‬
‭replacement. Stage 4 of the DTM is viewed as an ideal placement for a country‬
‭because total population growth is gradual. Examples of countries in Stage 4 of‬
‭demographic transition are Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, Brazil, most of‬
‭Europe, Singapore, South Korea, and the U.S.‬
‭●‬ ‭Stage 5 (declining)‬‭: This stage represents countries‬‭that have undergone the‬
‭economic transition from manufacturing based industries into service and information‬
‭based industries and the population reproduced well below replacement levels.‬
 ‭ ountries in Stage 5 include the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan. Stage 5‬
C
‭models are largely theoretical because population outcomes can be heavily influenced‬
‭by immigration.‬

‭Questions‬

‭1.‬ E
‭ ach of the first four stages of the DTM is associated with a particular age structure. The‬
‭diagrams below show structures for three of the five stages. They are not in order.‬

‭a.‬ I‭ dentify which of the diagrams corresponds to Stage 1 of the DTM and explain‬
‭your choice:‬

‭b.‬ I‭ dentify which of the diagrams corresponds to stage 3 of the DTM and explain‬
‭your choice:‬

‭2.‬ S
‭ uggest why it might become less important to have a large number of children in more‬
‭economically developed nations:‬

‭3.‬ A
‭ mong births there is a slightly higher male birth rate than female birth rate (a ratio of‬
‭about 1.1 : 1). What effect does this have on the replacement birth rate (i.e. the number of‬
‭births per female required to maintain a stable population).‬

‭4.‬ D
‭ escribe factors that might delay the demographic transition of some countries from‬
‭Stage 2 to Stage 3:‬
‭5.‬ I‭ n many countries, the government pays a benefit (superannuation) to retired citizens. In‬
‭others, there is no government help for people who are elderly and cannot work, or are‬
‭retired. Explain why both of these systems require a large population of younger workers‬
‭and cannot be supported by declining populations where young people are the minority.‬
‭The End‬