HOW MANY PEOPLE CAN THE
EARTH SUPPORT?
We do not know how long we can continue
increasing the earth’s carrying capacity for
humans without seriously degrading the life-
support system that keeps us and many other
species alive.
Human Population Growth
Population
Timeline
Human Population Growth Continues
• Reasons for human population increase
• Movement into new habitats and climate zones
• Early and modern agriculture methods
• Control of infectious diseases through
• Sanitation systems
• Antibiotics
• Vaccines
• Health care
• Most population growth over last 100 years due to drop
in death rates
• Population growth in developing countries is increasing
9 times faster than developed countries
Five Most Populous Countries, 2010 and 2050
What Factors Influence the Size of the
Human Population?
• Population size increases because of births and immigration, and
decreases through deaths and emigration.
• Population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration)
• The average number of children born to women in a population
(total fertility rate) is the key factor that determines population
size.
• Between 1955 and 2013, the global TFR dropped from 5 to 2.5.
• However, to eventually halt population growth, the global TFR
would have to drop to 2.1.
Total fertility rate, 1955-2010
Total Fertility Rate
U.S. TFRs and birth rates 1917-2010
20th Century Lifestyle Changes in the U.S.
Question: Which
two of these
changes do you
think were the
most important?
Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Fertility Rates
• Children as part of the labor force
• Cost of raising and educating children
• Availability of private and public pension
• Urbanization
• Educational and employment opportunities for women
• Average age of a woman at birth of first child
• Availability of legal abortions
• Availability of reliable birth control methods
• Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms
Factors Affecting Death Rates
• Life expectancy: Between 1955 and 2013, the average global life
expectancy increased from 48 years to 70 years.
• Infant mortality rate
• Number of live births that die in first year
• Why are people living longer?
• Increased food supply and distribution
• Better nutrition
• Medical advances
• Improved sanitation
Infant Mortality Rates, 1950-2010
Migration Affects an Area’s Population Size
• Economic improvement
• Religious freedom
• Political freedom
A Population’s Age Structure Helps Make Projections
• Age structure categories
• Pre-reproductive ages (0-14)
• Reproductive ages (15-44)
• Post-reproductive ages (45 and older)
• Seniors are the fastest-growing age group
Generalized Population Age-Structure Diagrams
Some Problems with Rapid Population Decline
Can threaten economic growth
Labor shortages
Less government revenues with fewer
workers
Less entrepreneurship and new business
formation
Less likelihood for new technology
development
Increasing public deficits to fund higher
pension and health-care costs
Pensions may be cut and retirement age
increased
Four Stages of the Demographic Transition
TFR in Bangladesh and U.S., 1800-2010