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Understanding Risk and Management in Banking

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
22 views8 pages

Understanding Risk and Management in Banking

rkm

Uploaded by

ram
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

What we study

A. What is risk?
B. Diff bet risk and uncertainty?
C. Relation between risk, return, capitals?
D. How and why to manage risk?
E. Risk management framework in banks?

What is risk? & Diff bet risk and uncertainty?

Risk is defined as:

1. Risks are uncertainties resulting in adverse outcome.

Financial Risk is defined as:

1. Loss in case of business units


2. Deviation of cash flows
3. Uncertainties resulting in adverse profit variations

Classical economists (pre-Keynesians) thinks future is predictable because in those


classical days trade volumes are less and there is no much speculation , but now a
days it has grown exponentially and keep growing to , so predicting the future is
more and more difficult.

Uncertainty is the mother of risk.

Risk describes a situation, in which there is a chance of loss or danger. Conversely,


uncertainty refers to a condition where you are not sure about the future outcomes
(profit or loss).

I.e. the possible unfavorable uncertainty is risk.

Relation between risk, return, capitals?

Risk appropriate to the return. Invest in government bonds and bank


deposits less risks hence less return, but invest in equities has more risks
hence return will be high more over high risk may results in loss which
many times erodes the capital. Thus in high risk trades investor can gets
high gain or loss but incase if he suffers loss, the capital comes in to play.
Thus capital is the shock absorber, thus minimum capital required for a
business is that it is able to meet maximum loss arising out of the
business and prevent the e company / person going bankrupt.

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John Maynard Keynes defines banking as an illusion, depositor will get his
money back and bank will recover their assets.

Frame work?

a. Zero risk/Sovereign Risk?


i. Theoretically zero risk .Eg. invest in goverment bonds
ii. But practically zero risk never exists.
a. This means these instruments not carry credit risk
but has market and interest rate risks if the
investor exists before maturity
b. Risk management:
i. Risk to be managed in early stage itself
ii. A risk ignored is itself a high risk
iii. A risk neglected is risk retained

Hence an organization requires separate setup for risk management.

c. Risk Appetite:
i. It is the level of risk the financial institution ready to take based
upon its mission and vision. It should not be static because
based on the current scenario risk appetite must keep changing.
d. Risk management Organization:
i. It consists of
1. Board of directors-top most authority
2. Risk management committee /Supervisory Committee
of directors
a. Represented by the directors
i. Full time directors –MD & CEO
ii. Director from RBI & government Only for government banks
iii. Other 2/3 directors of eminence
b. Responsibilities:
i. Guiding the sub groups
ii. Placing for board approvals
iii. Revise of framework and systems
iv. Competency of staff

3. Committee of senior level executives-(called as sub


groups)
a. Assets liability committed-market risk(ALCO)
i. Oversees the liqudity of bank

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ii. Works on improvement of NIM
iii. Recommends base rates like BPLR/MCLR
iv. Mid Office group
v. Monitor treasury operation on real time basis
b. Credit risk management committee(CRMC)
i. Robustness of credit rating process /
assessment
ii. Yearly rating wise distribution charts &
migration charts
iii. POD
iv. Portfolio analysis of credit assests
c. Operational risk management committee (ORMC)
i. Robustness of Operational risk
ii. Monitoring for Frauds and clearance of new
products other than credits
4. Risk management Department headed by CRO-chief risk
officer, he will be managing
a. ALCO
b. Mid office group to monitor treasury
c. Credit risk group
They have the overall responsibility for the risk
management. Board articulate all risk management
policies for the bank.

e. Risk Identification:
Determining what risk exists in the organization and remoteness of its
happening/possible outcomes.
Eg: Bank gives loan deposit=1cr
Loan amt = 1 crore RoI=6%
Period= 5yrs Period=3yrs
ROI= MCLr 1yr + 1%
Equal quarterly installments and
With 1 year moratorium

Analyze/ identify the risks to this scenario?


1. Assets –liability Mismatch/Gap risk: 5yrs loan funded with 3years
deposit, this way funding short term liability with long term assets
are called maturity transformation which is the major function of
banks thus helps the borrowers and depositor s satisfying their
needs.
2. Liquidity Risk: Due to maturity mismatch at the time of deposit
maturity, the bank has to pay. But at that time only 50% of the loan
was recovered.

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a. To meet depositor commitment bank has to run for other
sources/deposts. The rate at which bank raises the fund from
this sources may affect the bank earnings called Earnings
risk.
3. Embedded Optionally Risk: If the borrower close the deposit ahead
of maturity or the borrower prepay the loan before due date
4. Basis risk: Loan linked to floating rate and deposit linked to fixed
rate any changed in floating rate rates will affect the scenario
5. Time risk: Sub component of liquidity risk\
Borrower can remit the dues belatedly but before 90days ,
thus time risk is define as compensating funds from market
due to delay in expected fund inflow.

6. Default Risk: Borrower may default the installments even after 90


days of due.
7. Operation risk: Faking in loan process eg: Fake mortgage,Benami
transaction etc
f. Risk measurement:
Quantifying the risk. Risks are essentially measures Furturistic.
Quantitative measures classified in three categories.
1. Based on sensitivity: Deviation of single variable for per
unit deviation in market parameters
a. Macaulay Duration
Separate file attached for reference
b. Modified duration
Used to arrive sensitivity of bond and debentures
c. A changing scenario depends on marker variables
2. Based on volatility: number of movements in the given
period. Movmemnt of prices up d down during the period
a. Frequency of observation may be
weekly/monthly/yearly
b. Square root of time rule:
i. Volatility of Time T=Daily voltality x [Link] of
T
ii. Eg: If daily volt of stock is 1.5% the monthly
volt is = 1.5 x √30=8.22
iii. Holidays and Sundays are ignored
c. Standard deviation: For any given expected rate of
return we may expect a [Link]: If investor
expects a return of rs.500 with deviation of 10% he
may get 450 /[Link] variability of returns is
calculated using standard deviation.
Cal. Sd of the following Nos.:3,9,4,12,8,11,1,13,3,6??

STEP 1 TOTAL=70
STEP 2 Mean = 70/10= 7
STEP 3 Deviation from mean= -4,2,-3,5,1,4,-6,6,-4,-1 4
STEP 4 [Link] deviation=Variance = (16+4+9+25+1+16+36+36+16+1)/10=16
STEP 5 SD=√VARIANCE = √16 =4
Lower the SD lowers the risk. Assets diversification is the best
way to minimize the SD
g. Risk Mitigation:
i. Credit Risk Mitigation Techniques:
1. Due diligence
2. Credit rating/ scoring
3. Obtaining collateral securities
4. ECGC, CGTMSE guarantees
ii. Mitigation through Diversification:
1. Don’t put all egg in one baskets
2. Remember us SUB prime crisis 2008-2009 ,hence banks
has to give loans to diverse sectors
iii. Mitigation through Negative correlation
1. Though diversified some sectors will have parallel
movement’s i.e. Correlation is positive means prices go
up / done together Eg. Steel cement, paint, construction,
realty. So sectors opp to those like (Eg. IT ) have negative
correlation hence we avoid big losses at a time and run
business for long time
iv. Pricing of Loans:
1. Fair assessment and understanding of the loans and risks
involved will help in pricing of loans. So far RBI has come
out with the following Interest rate structure.
a. Bench Mark Prime Lending rate: It was introduced
in 2003 and has the following components
i. Cost of Deploying Funds: Let’s assume banks
accept a deposits of Rs.100 @ 6% with CRR
4% and SLR 18%
STEP 1 : 100 -4 = 96---CRR
STEP 2 : 96-18=78----SLR IN GSECS
WITH 5% RETURN
STEP 3 :NET INT=((18*(5/100))-
6))=5.10
STEP 4 : CODF= (100*5.10)/78=6.54%.
ii. Operating Expenses as per banks norms and
expenses (here assume 1.56%)
iii. POD:Deafult probability or expected loss that
explains borrower will default over a period.
(assume 2% here)
iv. Capital Charge: Dividend servicing ratio.
Dividend payout to eq share holders (here
0.5%)

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v. Profit margin: after adding all the cost
incurred now bank can add its profit (here
0.25%)

DETAILS Percent (%)


CODP 6.54%
OPERATING EXPENSES 1.56%(bank Opr exp)
PROBABLITIES OF DEFAULTS 2.00%
CAPITAL CHARGE 0.50%
PROFIT MARGIN 0.25%
BPLR 10.85%

RBI advised to issue loans above BPLR but due to stiff competition bank
started lending below BPLR, hence the same was discontinued.
b. BASE LENDING RATE: RBI implemented base rate
from July [Link] were allowed lend only above
this. the components are

DETAILS Percent (%)


CODP 6.54%
OPERATING EXPENSES 0.56% ([Link] of customer category
is taken)
PROFIT MARGIN 0.25%
BASE RATE 7.35%
After arriving base rate we start arrive
interest rates
a. Retail loans

DETAILS Percent (%)


BASE RATE 7.35%
OPERATING EXPENSES 1.25%(EXCLUDING AS ASSUMED
[Link] FOR RETAIL SINCS
LARGE NUMBER OF LOANS)
PROBABLITIES OF DEFAULTS 0.50%
CAPITAL CHARGE 0.25%
BPLR 09.35%
a. Corporate loans

DETAILS Percent (%)


BASE RATE 7.35%
OPERATING EXPENSES 0.75%(EXCLUDING AS ASSUMED
[Link] FOR RETAIL SINCS
LARGE NUMBER OF LOANS)
PROBABLITIES OF DEFAULTS 2.25%
CAPITAL CHARGE 0.75%
BPLR 11.10%

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Base rate captures risk senstivity higher than BPLR, but there is lack
transparency in this when RBI reduces repo it was not transformed to borrower
immediately, hence RBI withdrawn this rate.

c. MCLR(marginal cost of funds based lend rate).it


compromise of
i. Marginal cost of funds: The marginal cost of
funds has several components like the
Return on Net Worth and the Marginal Cost
of Borrowings. Marginal Cost of Borrowings
takes up 92% while the Return on Net Worth
accounts for 8%. This 8% is equivalent to the
risk of weighted assets as denoted by the
Tier I capital for banks.

Marginal cost of funds = Marginal borrowing cost x 92% + ret on the net worth x 8%

ii. Negative Carry on CRR: Banks must also


maintain a cash reserve ratio of 3%. On this
deposit, no interest is earned by the bank.
Under MCLR, banks can avail some
allowance called Negative Carry on CRR.
NC= [Link] X ([Link]/ (1-CRR))

iii. Operating Costs: all operating exp of banks


iv. Tenor premium: The reset period for the
interest rate is called the tenor. It is directly
proportional to the reset period i.e. the tenor
is higher if the reset period is higher.
Banks must have at least 5 MCLR rates.
(Overnight, 1 m, 3m, 6m, 1yr)

After adding all the components banks can


add business strategy charges and credit risk
premium. That depends on individual case to
case
d. Loans linked to External Benchmark: RBI advised all
loans linked to floating rates must be linked to
External benchmark. RBi has given thee such
benchmarks
i. REPO
ii. 3 month and 6 month Gsec yield pub by FBIL
iii. Any other benchmark pub by FBIL
Banks has to follow uniform benchmark for
particular loan category. After adding all the

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components banks can add Banks Spread
and credit risk premium. That depends on
individual case to case

Common questions

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Quantitative measures for risk assessment include sensitivity, volatility, and standard deviation. Sensitivity measures, such as Macaulay and Modified duration, assess the reaction of a financial instrument to interest rate changes, aiding in bond and debenture evaluations . Volatility measures the degree of price movement over time, guiding decisions regarding the stability and predictability of asset prices. The standard deviation assesses the variability of expected returns around a mean, providing insight into investment risk levels, where lower standard deviation implies lower risk . These tools enable investors and financial managers to quantify risks, facilitating more informed, data-backed decision-making in financial contexts.

A risk management framework in banks involves several components and committees to effectively monitor and manage risks. The framework includes a board of directors who guide policies, a risk management committee supervising framework updates and director responsibilities, and sub-groups like the Assets Liability Committee (ALCO) focusing on liquidity, the Credit Risk Management Committee (CRMC) ensuring the robustness of credit ratings, and the Operational Risk Management Committee (ORMC) addressing frauds and associated operational risks. A Chief Risk Officer (CRO) oversees these functions, ensuring the overall risk management policies are in place and updated . This multi-tiered approach allows banks to manage various types of risks systematically.

Maturity transformation involves funding long-term assets with short-term liabilities, a core banking function offering benefits like higher interest margins. However, this can expose banks to liquidity risks, as short-term liabilities may mature before the long-term assets do, necessitating finding new funding sources which may be costly or unavailable, thus impacting earnings via higher funding costs . This funding mismatch can ultimately affect the bank's profitability and stability if not managed properly, illustrating the delicate balance required to maintain sufficient liquidity while optimizing earnings .

Risk appetite defines the level of risk a financial institution is willing to undertake in pursuit of its goals. It shapes risk management strategies by determining the boundaries within which risks are acceptable. This parameter must adapt to changes in the macroeconomic environment, ensuring the institution remains aligned with its strategic objectives amidst evolving market conditions . By setting a risk appetite, institutions can tailor their risk management frameworks to proactively handle risks at an early stage, avoiding ignored or neglected risks that could potentially lead to significant future exposures . This approach ensures structured and systematic risk management tailored to the institution's specific operational landscape.

Risk refers to the potential for a loss or danger in situations where outcomes are known to some extent, whereas uncertainty involves a lack of predictability in outcomes, whether favorable or unfavorable. In financial decision-making, uncertainty often gives rise to risk, as decision-makers must account for the potential variability in returns or losses due to unknown future events . This relationship is crucial because it affects how investments are managed, with riskier ventures typically demanding higher potential returns to compensate for the uncertainty involved .

The Chief Risk Officer (CRO) plays a critical role in overseeing a bank's risk management processes. This includes managing committees such as the Assets Liability Committee for market risk, the Credit Risk Group focusing on credit-related exposures, and ensuring effective coordination with the Mid Office group for treasury operations . The CRO is responsible for ensuring that all risk policies articulated by the board are implemented and that risk identification, measurement, and mitigation processes are effectively applied throughout the institution. By integrating risk management functions across various operational areas, the CRO ensures that risks are managed comprehensively and consistently across the bank, aligning with overall strategic outcomes and policy directives .

Diversification mitigates risks by spreading investments across various sectors or asset classes, reducing reliance on any single investment. This strategy lowers portfolio risk since negative performance in one area can potentially be offset by gains in others, as observed during financial crises like the subprime mortgage collapse of 2008-2009 . By investing in negatively correlated sectors, investors avoid massive simultaneous losses, enhancing the resilience and sustainability of portfolios over time, regardless of broad market fluctuations . Thus, diversification remains a fundamental risk management tool in constructing robust investment portfolios.

Balancing risk mitigation and profitability in bank lending involves complex challenges. While risk mitigation seeks to minimize potential losses and ensure financial stability through measures like credit rating assessments and collateral requirements , profitability depends on achieving sufficient interest margins and returns. High-risk strategies can endanger capital and stability, yet overly conservative approaches may result in lower returns, impacting competitive positioning and financial performance. Banks must therefore carefully assess loan pricing structures, actively manage loan portfolios, and adjust to regulatory changes like risk-based pricing and capital requirements . Successfully navigating these challenges requires sophisticated risk management systems that align with strategic profitability targets and risk management frameworks.

The relationship between risk, return, and capital is central to investment decisions. Higher risks are generally associated with the potential for higher returns; however, they also pose a threat to the capital invested. In low-risk investments, like government bonds or bank deposits, returns are typically lower, reflecting their safer nature. In contrast, equities present higher returns due to their high-risk nature but can also lead to potential capital erosion if losses occur . Thus, sufficient capital acts as a shock absorber, ensuring that even in the event of high losses, the invested entity can withstand financial strain and avoid bankruptcy . This balance influences investors to weigh potential returns against the acceptable level of risk and the protection of their capital.

The Benchmark Prime Lending Rate (BPLR) was replaced by the Base Lending Rate in July 2010 to enhance transparency in the lending process. The BPLR was criticized because competitive pressures allowed banks to lend below the rate, compromising transparency and fairness. The Base Lending Rate system aimed to standardize interest rates and ensure that banks lend at rates reflective of their cost of funds, operating expenses, and minimum profit margin . This shift aimed to provide a more consistent and fair lending rate baseline, ensuring borrowers and customers received interest rates based on a disclosed and logical structure rather than opaque bank-specific rates .

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