Scenario Actual Actual Forecast
Forecast Actual Actual Jun_Fcst
Year 2019 2020 2021
Formatted FY19A FY20A FY21F
Error Check Summary
Error Check FY19A FY20A FY21F
A = L + OE 0 0 0
Retained Earnings = Begin + NI - Div 0 0
Beginning Cash + NCF = BS Cash 0 0
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Jun_Fcst Jun_Fcst Jun_Fcst Jun_Fcst Jun_Fcst
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
FY22F FY23F FY24F FY25F FY26F
FY22F FY23F FY24F FY25F FY26F
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
Control Selection
Current Year 2021
Current Year Scenario Jun_Fcst
Instructions:
Lorem Ipsum
Date Selection
Scenario Actual Actual Forecast Forecast
Forecast Actual Actual Jun_Fcst Jun_Fcst
Year 2019 2020 2021 2022
Formatted FY19A FY20A FY21F FY22F
Scenario Selection
Assumptions
FY19A FY20A FY21F FY22F
Marketing Drivers
Shopper Growth 4.94% 5.58% 5.60%
Cost / Shopper $0.75 $0.75 $0.71
Conversion Rates
Air 1.56% 1.57% 1.59%
Hotel 9.34% 9.06% 8.79%
Car 12.45% 12.36% 12.27%
LocExp 19.22% 19.02% 18.83%
Product Drivers
Air Unit/Txn 1.64 1.64 1.64
Air Rate/Unit $533.51 $572.97 $615.34
Hotel Unit/Txn 3.40 3.44 3.47
Hotel Rate/Unit $172.96 $175.72 $178.52
Car Unit/Txn 2.95 2.95 2.95
Car Rate/Unit $34.33 $34.57 $34.81
LocExp Unit/Txn 1.74 1.74 1.74
LocExp Rate/Unit $48.27 $53.63 $59.58
Product Margins
Air 2.54% 2.55% 2.57%
Car 10.44% 10.40% 10.37%
Hotel 19.75% 19.86% 19.98%
LocExp 25.46% 25.03% 24.60%
Ancillary Revenues
Insurance % of Car Revenue 18.97% 18.68% 18.40%
Ancillary % of Tot Product Revenue 1.64% 1.60% 1.56%
COS & OpEx Drivers
COS % of Revenues 15.82% 16.74% 17.71%
Average HC Costs (fully-loaded) $154,701 $148,450 $162,584
Headcount 25,400 27,740 27,740
Depreciation % of Gross PPE 10.08% 10.53% 10.50%
Amortization % of Gross DL Intangibles 6.40% 6.67% 6.75%
Other Expense % of Revenues 0.54% 0.50% 0.46% 0.50%
Interest Rate 3.78% 3.65% 3.53% 3.75%
Tax Rate 37.42% 27.53% 21.00% 21.00%
Working Capital Drivers
A/R Days 98 days 83 days 118 days 120 days
Inventory Days 234 days 229 days 227 days 240 days
A/P Days 50 days 55 days 65 days 65 days
Accrued Expense % of OpEx 15.23% 16.84% 13.80% 14.00%
Deferred Revenue % of Revenue 11.82% 12.39% 11.47% 12.00%
Other Liabilities % Total Liabilities 4.30% 3.74% 4.54% 4.60%
Capex Drivers
Net PP&E % of Revenues 0.0% 16.41% 12.74% 13.00%
Net DL Intangibles % of Revenues 0.0% 18.64% 15.75% 16.00%
IL Intangible Acquisitions ($) - - - -
Debt Drivers
ST Debt / EBITDA 0.9x 0.8x 0.6x 0.5x
LT Debt / EBITDA 5.0x 4.0x 3.4x 2.7x
Equity Drivers
Equity Issuance - - - -
Dividend Rate % of NI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sensitivity Tables
- The sensitivity table results will vary with the scenario selected above, which w
inputs aside from those being sensitized.
- Update Data Tables anytime an adjustment is made by hitting 'F9' to refresh calc
5 Year EBIT CAGR Shopper Growth (%)
(6.0%) (4.0%) (2.0%)
(7.5%)
Cost per Shopper
(5.0%)
(2.5%)
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
5 Year EBIT CAGR Conversion Rate Change (bps)
(15 bps) (10 bps) (5 bps)
(7.5%)
Cost per Shopper
(5.0%)
(2.5%)
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
Annual Net Income FY20A FY21F FY22F
Optimistic
Scenario
Base
Scenario
Downside
Worst
Custom
Summary Statements
Income Statement
x FY19A FY20A FY21F FY22F
Air 1,048.6 1,191.5 1,353.8
Hotel 5,227.1 5,571.4 5,938.3
Car 2,883.6 3,107.2 3,348.1
Local Experience 673.7 776.9 895.8
Insurance 547.0 580.5 616.0
Advertising 161.0 170.3 180.2
x Total Revenues 10,541.0 11,397.7 12,332.2
x Cost of Sales 1,667.3 1,908.1 2,183.8
x Gross Profit 8,873.8 9,489.6 10,148.4
Gross Profit Margin 84.2% 83.3% 82.3%
Marketing Expenses 3,946.7 4,146.4 4,172.5
People Costs (fully-loaded) 3,929.4 4,118.0 4,510.1
Depreciation 273.9 286.3 299.1
Amortization 167.9 175.5 182.8
Other Operating Expenses 57.0 57.0 57.0
x Total Operating Expenses 8,374.9 8,783.2 9,221.4
x Operating Income (EBIT) 498.9 706.4 927.1
EBIT Margin 4.7% 6.2% 7.5%
Net Interest (Income) Expense 211.2 204.9 198.8
x Pre-tax Operating Income 287.6 501.5 728.3
Tax Expense 107.6 138.1 152.9
x Net Income 180.0 363.4 575.4
Net Margin 1.7% 3.2% 4.7%
Supplemental:
EBITDA 940.7 1,168.2 1,408.9
EBITDA Margin 8.9% 10.2% 11.4%
x
Balance Sheet
x FY19A FY20A FY21F FY22F
Cash 1,408.8 2,903.7 2,619.1
Accounts Receivable 2,830.2 2,592.2 3,999.1
Inventory 1,068.9 1,195.1 1,359.9
Current Assets 5,307.9 6,691.0 7,978.1
Property, Plant, & Equipment, Net 2,144.3 1,870.4 1,571.3
Goodwill 4,967.8 4,967.8 4,967.8
Intangible Assets, Net 3,292.9 3,125.0 2,942.3
Total Assets 15,712.9 16,654.3 17,459.5
Accounts Payable 1,147.2 1,321.3 1,649.9
Accrued Expenses 1,275.5 1,478.8 1,272.3
Bonus Payable - - -
Short-term Debt 865.1 885.1 905.1
Deferred Revenues 1,246.0 1,412.5 1,415.1
Current Liabilities 4,533.8 5,097.7 5,242.3
Long-Term Debt 4,727.1 4,727.1 4,727.1
Other Liabilities 353.0 367.0 452.3
Total Liabilities 9,613.9 10,191.8 10,421.7
Common Stock 14,063.0 14,063.0 14,063.0
Treasury Stock (10,426.5) (10,426.5) (10,426.5)
Retained Earnings 2,462.5 2,825.9 3,401.3
Total Liabilities & Stockholder's Equity 15,712.9 16,654.3 17,459.5
Assets = Liabilities + Owner's Equity
RE = Beginning + NI - Dividends
Cash Flow Statement
x FY20A FY21F FY22F
Net Income (Loss) 363.4 575.4
Add back non-cash expenses:
Depreciation 286.3 299.1
Amortization 175.5 182.8
Adjustments to Working Capital:
(Increase) Decrease in Accounts Receivable, Net 238.0 (1,406.9)
(Increase) Decrease in Inventory (126.2) (164.8)
Increase (Decrease) in Accounts Payable 174.0 328.6
Increase (Decrease) in Accrued Expenses 203.3 (206.5)
Increase (Decrease) in Deferred Revenue 166.5 2.6
Increase (Decrease) in Other Liabilities 14.0 85.3
Operating Cash Flow 1,494.9 (304.6)
(Capital Expenditures) - -
(Acquisition of Intangibles) - -
Investing Cash Flow - -
Issuance (Repayment) of Short-Term Debt - 20.0
Issuance (Repayment) of Long-Term Debt - -
Proceeds from Issuance of Shares - -
Shares (Repurchased) - -
Dividends - -
Financing Cash Flow - 20.0
Net Cash Flows 1,494.9 (284.6)
Beginning Cash Balance 1,408.8 2,903.7
Ending Cash Balance 1,408.8 2,903.7 2,619.1
Begin + NCF = Ending
Detailed Statements
Income Statement
x Shoppers FY19A FY20A FY21F FY22F
Air 3,021,857 3,151,745 3,287,216
Hotel 910,222 978,960 1,052,888
Car 1,158,735 1,242,236 1,331,754
Local Experience 164,140 175,074 186,736
x Total Shoppers 5,254,954 5,548,014 5,858,593
x Transactions FY19A FY20A FY21F
Air 47,129 49,601 52,203
Hotel 85,039 88,713 92,545
Car 144,275 153,527 163,373
Local Experience 31,551 33,306 35,159
x Total Transactions 307,994 325,148 343,280
x Units FY19A FY20A FY21F
Air 77,424 81,456 85,697
Hotel 289,518 304,738 320,758
Car 425,393 452,589 481,524
Local Experience 54,817 57,883 61,121
x Total Units 847,152 896,665 949,100
x Gross Bookings (millions) FY19A FY20A FY21F
Air 41,306.4 46,671.2 52,732.8
Hotel 50,074.9 53,548.1 57,262.1
Car 14,604.1 15,645.1 16,760.3
Local Experience 2,646.1 3,104.3 3,641.8
x Total Gross Bookings (millions) 108,631 118,969 130,397
Balance Sheet
Assets
Property, Plant, & Equiptment, Gross FY19A FY20A FY21F FY22F
Beginning Balance 2,841.2 2,841.2
+ Capital Expenditures - -
x Ending Balance ### 2,841.2 2,841.2 2,841.2
Accumulated Depreciation
Beginning Balance 970.8
+ Depreciation 299.1
x Ending Balance ### 970.8 1,269.9
x Ending Net PP&E Balance ### 1,870.4 1,571.3
Definited-Lived Intangibles, Gross
Beginning Balance 2,741.3 2,741.3
+ Acquisition Intangibles - -
x Ending Balance ### 2,741.3 2,741.3 2,741.3
Accumulated Amortization
Beginning Balance 616.3
+ Amortization 182.8
x Ending Balance ### 616.3 799.1
x Ending Net DL Intangible Balance
### 2,125.0 1,942.3
Indefinited-Lived Intangibles
Beginning Balance 1,000.0
+ Acquisition Intangibles -
x Ending Balance ### 1,000.0 1,000.0
Liabilities
Short-Term Debt FY19A FY20A FY21F
Beginning Balance 885.1
+ ST Debt Issuance (Repayment) 20.0
x Ending Balance ###### 885.1 905.1
Long-Term Debt
Beginning Balance 4,727.1
+ LT Debt Issuance (Repayment) -
x Ending Balance ###### 4,727.1 4,727.1
Equity
Consolidated Equity FY19A FY20A FY21F
Beginning Balance 6,462.5
+ Share Issuances -
- Treasury Repurchases -
+ Net Income 575.4
- Dividends -
x Ending Balance ### 6,462.5 7,037.9
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Jun_Fcst Jun_Fcst Jun_Fcst Jun_Fcst
2023 2024 2025 2026
FY23F FY24F FY25F FY26F
FY23F FY24F FY25F FY26F
- - - -
0.4x 0.3x 0.1x
2.0x 1.3x 0.7x
- - - - Set to automatically issue equity to prevent cash b
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
selected above, which will drive the other
hitting 'F9' to refresh calculations
Shopper Growth (%)
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%
Conversion Rate Change (bps)
0 bps 5 bps 10 bps 15 bps
FY23F FY24F FY25F FY26F 5 Yr CAGR
FY23F FY24F FY25F FY26F 5 Yr CAGR
FY23F FY24F FY25F FY26F
FY23F FY24F FY25F FY26F
FY23F FY24F FY25F FY26F 5 yr CAGR
FY23F FY24F FY25F FY26F
e equity to prevent cash before dividends & repurchases from turning negative
Item Cost Center Description
Marketing Efficiency Improve shopper mix with increased organic
Improvement Mktg traffic while reducing paid search
Addition of new Airline Possible addition of new Airline partner on
partner Revenue favorable terms
Substantial website redesign expected to
Website redesign Product improve customer purchase rates
Total Opportunities
Item Cost Center Description
Competitive market Increasing CPC rates on Paid Search media
increases CAC Mktg pressuring results
Possible loss of existing Car partner or
commission reduction during contract
Possible loss of Car partner Revenue renegotiations
Possibility of a global pandemic reducing travel
Global Pandemic Revenue demand
Total Risks
Base EBIT
Adjustments (Included)
Adjusted EBIT
EBIT Impact (m)
Category New / Existing? Prob (%) Include? FY22F FY23F FY24F FY25F FY26F
SG&A New 50% N 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Revenue New 75% Y 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5
Conversion New 90% Y 5.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 12.0
13.0 16.0 16.5 17.5 18.5
Category New / Existing? Prob (%) Include? FY22F FY23F FY24F FY25F FY26F
SG&A Existing 40% N (5.0) (5.5) (6.0) (6.5) (7.0)
Revenue New 85% Y (3.5) (3.5) (3.8) (4.0) (4.3)
Revenue Existing 5% N (12.0) (9.0) (6.0) (3.0) (1.0)
(20.5) (18.0) (15.8) (13.5) (12.3)
- - - - -
4.5 7.5 7.8 8.5 9.3
4.5 7.5 7.8 8.5 9.3
Account Lookup Date Lookup
Account Account_type Fin_Stmt Account_type Fin_Stmt Month_num Month Quarter
Revenue IS 1 Jan 1
Fixed Expense BS 2 Feb 1
Semi-Fixed Expenses CFS 3 Mar 1
Cost of Revenues 4 Apr 2
Marketing 5 May 2
SG&A 6 Jun 2
Interest 7 Jul 3
Taxes 8 Aug 3
Current Asset 9 Sep 3
Non-Current Asset 10 Oct 4
Current Liability 11 Nov 4
Non-Current Liability 12 Dec 4
Stockholder's Equity
Scenario Version Year CY_Year
Actual Actual 2019 CY-2
Forecast Mar_Fcst 2020 CY-1
Projection Jun_Fcst 2021 CY
Sep_Fcst 2022 CY+1
Dec_Fcst 2023 CY+2
2024 CY+3
2025 CY+4
2026 CY+5