Daniele Vignoli

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DEMOGRAPHY AND TOURISM

Crude and Age-specific Demographic Rates

 Today material

• Caselli G., Vallin J., Wunch G. (2006), Demography –

Analysis and Synthesis. A Treatise in Population. Elsevier.
 Chapter 4 (Sections II.1, II.2, II.3);
 Chapter 5.

• Additional material
Back to General Population Equation (1)

• We can define the General Population Equation (=

Balancing Equation of Population Change), that regulates
changes in the size of the population , as:

Pt+n = Pt + B – D + I - E
Back to General Population Equation (2)

 P = population count
− Pt = population at time t
− Pt+n = population at time t+n
− n = length of time interval in years
 B = number of (live) births
 D = number of deaths
 NI = natural increase
 I = immigration (e.g., from other countries to a country)
 E = emigration (e.g., from a country to others)
 NM = net migration = balance of migration inflows and
migration outflows
 Δ = change
Back to General Population Equation (3)

• The Balancing Equation of Population Change can

also be written as:

Pt+n = Pt + NI + NM

• Population change = natural increase + net migration:

Pt+n – Pt = + NI + NM
ΔP = + NI + NM
 Back to General Population Equation (4)

• Sometimes we don’t know what the net migration flow

has been, so we use the population accounting equation to
help make the estimate:

NM = (Pt+n - Pt) – (B – D)

• This is the residual method for estimating net migration

• Note that accurate census population counts are needed at

time t and t+n
Back to General Population Equation (5)

 Min = in-migration (from the rest of the country to a region)

 Mout = out-migration (from a region to the rest of the country)
 I = immigration (e.g., from other countries to a country)
 E = emigration (e.g., from a country to others)

Pt+n = Pt + (B – D) + (I – E) + (Min – Mout)

• Note the two sets of migration terms

• The internal migration flows cancel when we are dealing
with a national population but are needed when we are
working with sub-national populations
 From Absolute to Relative Measures
• The Population change is driven by its natural increase
(births – deaths) and net migration (migration inflows –
migration outflows)

• BUT: Obviously the natural increase and net migration

measured in absolute numbers do not allow comparisons
among different populations

• We need to shift the focus from absolute to relative

measures so that the number of events are considered
“relative” to the size of their population

• So we need DEMOGRAPHIC RATES

 Demographic Rates
• In demography, a “rate” is the ratio between occurrences
and exposures

 The number of occurrences depends on the size of a

population

 The number of occurrences depends on the time the

members of the population are “exposed” to the risk of
occurrence
 Crude Demographic Rates

Crude Rates identify how many events of

a certain type (births, deaths, marriages,…)
were recorded during the considered
time-span (for instance a year), for each
element of the population (or, for 100,
1000,… persons)
 Crude Rates (1)
Formula Definition

Crude Number of live

births over 1000
Birth Rate n= B/P *1000 individuals, in a
(“CBR” or “n”) specific year
Crude Number of deaths
over 1000
Death Rate m= D/P *1000 individuals, in a
(“CDR” or “m”) specific year

• Note: these are the vital events rates

 Crude Rates (2)
Formula Definition

Crude Number of live

marriages over
Marriage Rate m= M/P *1000 1000 individuals, in
(“CMR” or “m”) a specific year
Number of
Crude separations
(including divorces)
Separation Rate s= S/P *1000 over 1000
(“CSR” or “s”) individuals, in a
specific year
• Note: these are the vital events rates
 Crude Rates (3)
Formula Definition

Crude Rate of Number of

immigrants over
In-migration i= I/P *1000
1000 individuals, in
(“CRIM” or “i”) a specific year
Crude Rate of Number of
emigrants over
Out-migration e= E/P *1000
1000 individuals, in
(“CROM” or “e”) a specific year

• Note: Denominator of CRIM does not represent those

exposed to risk!
 Crude Rates (4)
Formula Definition

Number of individuals
Crude Rate of that “adds” to the
ni= (NI)/P
Natural Increase population by births
*1000 over 1000 individuals,
(“CRNI” or “ni”) in a specific year
Number of individuals
Crude Rate of that “adds” to the
nm= (NM)/P population by
Net Migration
*1000 migration over 1000
(“CRNM” or “nm”) individuals, in a
specific year
 Crude Rates (5)

Formula Definition

Number of individuals
Crude Growth that “adds” to the
r= (NI+NM)/P
Rate population over 1000
*1000 individuals, in a
(“CGR” or “r”) specific year
 Crude Growth Rate
• The CGR can also be seen as directly derived rearranging the
balancing equation of population change between time t and
t+n when dividing each element of the equation by the
average population of the period (P):

ΔP = NI + NM

ΔP / P = NI / P + NM / P

• This means:

CGR = CRNI + CRNM

CGR = CBR – CDR + CRIM – CROM

To be sure
The Demographic Profile of a Country (1)
The Demographic Profile of a Country (2)
The Demographic Profile of a Country (3)
The Demographic Profile of a Country (4)
 Back to Age
• Age is the key variable to describe how demographic
behavior (including the one of a cohort) unfolds

• Crude rates are too crude (e.g., in population where

demographic aging is advanced, an higher number of
deaths is intrinsically recorded, being equal the rest)

• Why age?
 Rates show huge variation with age
 Age composition changes importantly in human populations
 Age composition is a function of the past history
 Data to compute age-specific rates are commonly available
Age-Specific Demographic Rates

Age-Specific Rates identify how many

events of a certain type (births, deaths,
marriages,…) were recorded at a certain
age x, during the considered time-span
(for instance a year), for each element of
the population having that age (or, for
100, 1000,… persons of that age)
Crude and Age-Specific Mortality

Formula

Crude
m= (D/P)*1000
Death Rate

Age-Specific mx = (Dx /Px)*1000

Death Rate for every x

Remember: the population of the denominator is the mean population

of same age in the period.
Example of Age-Specific Mortality Rates (1)
Age -s pe cific m ortality rate s for the Italian fe m ale population (1975)
EVENTS RATES
Age 1.1.1985 1.1.1986 Average P Female Mortality
deaths (000)
0-4 2,107,840 2,089,033 2,098,437 8,467 4.03
5-9 2,238,464 2,201,025 2,219,745 576 0.26
10-14 2,216,421 2,239,179 2,227,800 567 0.25
15-19 1,977,770 2,034,900 2,006,335 816 0.41
20-24 1,917,335 1,897,993 1,907,664 790 0.41
25-29 1,990,968 2,081,196 2,036,082 989 0.49
30-34 1,809,433 1,725,987 1,767,710 1,181 0.67
35-39 1,921,562 1,960,259 1,940,911 1,937 1.00
40-44 1,870,613 1,840,782 1,855,698 3,050 1.64
45-49 1,842,037 1,874,203 1,858,120 4,818 2.59
50-54 1,861,581 1,844,128 1,852,855 7,846 4.23
55-59 1,187,186 1,247,963 1,217,575 7,985 6.56
60-64 1,592,362 1,574,846 1,583,604 16,375 10.34
65-69 1,381,642 1,423,049 1,402,346 24,240 17.29
70-74 1,085,752 1,102,020 1,093,886 33,736 30.84
75 + 1,427,478 1,484,855 1,456,167 146,032 100.29

Total 28,428,444 28,621,418 28,524,931 259,405 9.09

Example of Age-Specific Mortality Rates (2)

Age-specific mortality rates for the Italian female population (1975), per
1000 individuals of that age
 Note that
1. We can compute age-specific mortality rates with respect to
the female population, to the male population, or to both
sexes considered jointly

2. The rates are very low until age 50 to 60 years, then rise
rapidly with age, in a near-exponential manner. Thus,
conventionally, age-specific mortality rates are plotted
using a log scale
 the variations at young ages become more visible and the
near-exponential growth at older ages can be verified.

3. The observation of age-specific mortality rates allows to get

the mortality developments according to age
 Mortality Development by Age (1)
Age-specific death rates in France, 1995: logarithmic representation
 Mortality Development by Age (2)
• This age-wise mortality increase can be interpreted as the
statistical translation of the process of biological aging of the
human body  The older one becomes, the more the vital
functions become impaired and the greater the risk of dying.

• There are two exceptions to this regular progression.

 One, concerns the first years of life: At the youngest ages, mortality begins
by diminishing with age, until approximately age of 10. This is the effect of
another biologic process: birth and the first days of life are particularly
perilous (obstetric trauma, environmental aggressions with which the new
born cannot yet cope, etc.), and these dangers disappear as the infant ages.

 Then, around age 20, another exception is observed: a strange hump in the
curve that has no biologic explanation, but reflects the excessive importance
of traffic accidents in mortality.
Variation Through Time of Age-Specific Rates
Age-specific death rates for different years (in 20-year intervals from 1806 to
1995) in France.
 Crude Fertility Measures

Formula

Crude Birth Rate n = B / P *1000

Crude Fertility
Rate (or General fP
Fertility Rate) GF = B / 15-49 *1000
 Age-Specific Fertility

Formula

Age-Specific f x = Bx / fPx *1000

Fertility Rates For every x

Remember: the population of the denominator is the mean population

of same age in the period.
 Note that
1. Traditionally, age-specific fertility rates are computed
on the female population, but they can also be
computed on the basis of the male population.

2. They cannot be computed on the overall population (both

sexes considered jointly) because mothers and fathers do
have generally different ages.

3. fx express the number of children per women of a certain

age

4. They illustrate the fertility development by age.

Examples of Age-Specific Fertility Rates (1)

Age-specific fertility rates in France, 1995

 Examples of Age-Specific Fertility Rates (2)

Age-specific fertility
tassi di fecondità rates
specifici per età. Italia. in
Anni Italy. Years 1960, 1980, 1996.
1960-1980-1996.

1000
nati vivi per 1000 donne di ciascuna classe d'età

900 1960

1980
800
1996

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
<20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-45 <=45

classi di età
Age-group
 Measuring Fertility

Formula

Total Fertility TFR = Σ Nx / fPx

Rate (TFR) = Σ fx
for every x

NOTE: Generally fx are computed and summed up for women aged 15

to 49.
 The Total Fertility Rate

INTERPRETATION: TFR indicates the average number of

children per women (or per 1000 women if multiplied per
1000).

KEY-ISSUE: TFR is NOT influenced by the population age-

structure because it is obtained summing up the fx which
already “relate” the number of occurrences (births from
women of a certain age) to the number of exposures
(number of women of that age) for each reproductive age
(or for each reproductive age-group considered).
The Demographic Profile of a Country (1)
The Demographic Profile of a Country (2)
The Demographic Profile of a Country (3)
The Demographic Profile of a Country (4)
 TFR

1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
2,2
2,4
2,6
2,8
3
1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

Years 1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994
Example: TFR evolution in Italy (1960-1997)

1996
 Back to Age
• Note: one might also define Cohort-Age-Specific death
(birth…) rates by adopting a longitudinal perspective
(behaviorally they are much more informative).

• As we will see, using the Lexis diagram the actual calculation

of numerators and denominators for rates and probabilities
becomes relatively straightforward