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Sta 232

Operation research 11
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Sta 232

Operation research 11
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‘Official Statisties is the totality of the statistics produced by public statistical agencies ofa colinmy. Tt covers economic statistics including statistics of industrial production, services, prices and institutional sector, and social statistics encompassing population, and demography, housing, education, employment, health, autrition, income and expenditure, public order and afety; social security and welfare, leisure and cultural activities. i ! Official statistics are produced within the framework of national statistical system, A statistical: LU asgtom consists of the people, procedure, data and equipment for data processing and cl ; Hielemination. If the system is organised on a national basis, it is called a national stétistical, System. b ay pes of National Statistical System (NSS) jj1-' Centralised National Statistical System: is one where the whole process of data’ | production and dissemination to the governments and other users of statistics is carried out by an organ of the government. ‘4 iP Decentralised National Statistical System: is one whereby there is division of responsibility between various data collection agencies at different tiers of government yygi. and the different agencies are free to collect data to satisfy their respective needs. USER'S OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS 1. Users with @ general interest such as citizens, media and journalists, students and teachers, Users with a pre-defined/siructured interest such as intemational policies and monitoring frameworks, international organizations. 3 pie ; ©. 3. Users with a specific subject/domain interest such as decision mélers, policy makers = and analysis, marketing analysts, experts in a specific field, Priv and associations, = 4, Users with a reuse and reproduction interest such as other statistics, private or government organizations providing ‘informations Other providers of information services (e.g. App builders) Users with a research interest such as scientific community — academics and researchers, consultants and researchers in the government or private sector, formation as a sound basis for their advocacy work. Statistics is an important ‘ool for the eo yelopmentel planning of any country and the absence of such makes it impossible to, ensure’ i | fiffure development and the welfare of the society. i an National Statistical al System i Ay jj Research and Training institution including higher education instit Qbjectives of Nigeria National Statistical System ‘Yo raise public awareness about the importance and role of st , society ; & . To collect, process, analyses and disseminate quality statistical data, : To promote the use of best practice and international standards in statistical produetion, management and dissemination. i i | To promote the use of statistical data and information at individual, institutional, local | government area, national-and international levels, especially for evidence based policy design and decision making. 7 { To build sustainable capacity for the production and use of statistical ddia and i information in the country for iia purpose. I system, The committee is headed by the Statistician General (i.e CEO of the Ms. ctions of Coor: inating Agenctes | 1) sion statietient programme for the approval of the NBS board. i || To examine the Statistics Act and recommend to the board any taastiy, ane as. , the need arises. e " To develop strategies which shall ensure uniform standard and methodolo gies alongs the various agencies with a view to improving on the quality comparability and timeliness of their statistics output. Hot {ppovcEEs 0 OF NATIONAL STATISTICS i ae tional Bureau of statistics’ (NBS) i 4 H eit : ‘ian is the main national agency responsible for the devel lopment and mnngerent of. Functions of National Bureau of Statistics | I ‘i To coordinate the National Statistical System. i i To advise the federal, state and local government on all suc to statistica? and development. | To develop and promote use of statistical standards and epproptiate methodologies in the system. \ To collect, compile, analyze, interpret, publish and disseminate statistical information alone or in collaboration with other agencies, both governments non- governmental agencies | To develop and maintain a comprehensive national data bank by encouragitg unit of line ministries and agencies develop their sectoral data bank and forward to the 4 bureau. To provide a focal point of contact with intemational agencies on statistical m To carry out all other functions relating to statistios as the federal government only’ assign to the bureau. ional Food Consumption Survey Isnal Consumer Expenditure Survey ey of Housing Status = of modern agricultural holdings ad iA dministrative Statistics Programme fi jalytical programme oe tional Accounts Statistics | oa Reporting Service mnmental Statistics ons of National Bureau of Statistics nual Abstract of Statistics Distribution Survey of Nigeria, btrial Survey of Nigeria onsumer price index N ational Accounts of Nigeria ligest of statistics ies; To undertake the enumeration of the population of Nigeria ey 1 censuses and sample surveys. To establish and maintain a machinery for continuous and births and deaths throughout the country. To prepare and maintain a national framework for censuses and sample surveys To eatled, collect and publish data on migration planning and economic development. | To advise the federal government on any population and related mates and problems, the commission, and , To arrange for the appointment and training of enumerators and all other eat : of staff of the commission. sopatiee s through its | | Annual Report and Statement of Account. | Economic and Financial Review. Monthly Report. Nigeria principal ec ic and financial indicators. DESIGNS FOR DATA COLLECTION Data Definition: Data can-be defined asa set of values of qualitative or quantitative variables, a fact , or figure from which conclusions can be drawn. Sources of data Data collection plays a very crucial role in the statistical analysis, In research, there are different methods used to gether information, all of which fall into two categories, i.e. primary data and secondary data 1. Primary Data Primary data refers to the first hand data gathered by the researcher for a specific purpose. Primary data are real time data. : The basic sources of primary data are censuses, sample surveys, observations, experiments, questionnaire, personal interview ete. Primary data are collected where a. The needed information does not exist elsewhere b. The needed information exist but is not reliable c. Collecting the information at first hand is only way such information can be obtained 2. Secondary Data ‘ ‘These are data which already exist and may be adapted for use in the current survey. Such data are collected originally for another purpose. Secondary data can be sourced fiom publications and records of ¢ nts and non- government organisations, joumals of universities and research administrative records ete. For secondary data to’be used with reasonable degree of confides must be assessed. This involves checking for the following: a, The source of the data b. The purpose of which it was collected . The method of data collection used °, d. Definition of terms used : 2 Coverage and changes overtime, if any Method of analysis cS For secondary data to be used with reasonable degree of confidence, the validity of such data ‘must be assessed. This involves checking for the following; “a. The source of the data ‘b. The purpose of which it was collected c. The method of data collection used d. Definition of terms used “e..Coverag~ and changes overtime, if any Method of analysis Categories of data Data can be broken down into two categories: quantitative data and qualitative data. Quantitative data refers to any information that can be quantified that is, numbers. It refers to any information that can be counted or measured, and giyen a numerical value. Some of the examples of quantitative data are: , 1. How many people attended last. week’s birthday party? 12. How much revenue did a particular company make last year? Qualitative data is descriptive in nature, expressed in terms of language rather than numerical ~ °. values. You would turn to qualitative data to answer the “why?” or “how?” questions. It is often used to investigate open-ended studies, allowing participants 1o show their true feelings and actions without guidance. Data collection : || Data collection is the process of gathering and measuring information on targeted variables in 'en established system, which then enables one to answer Telewant gill outcomes. The goal of all data collection is to capture quality : Jead to the formulation of convincing and credible answers to th ‘There are many methods to collect data, but most statistical i ily use three methods of data collection: censuses, sample surveys and admis 5 1, Censuses In general, census refers to data collection about every unit in a grou opulation. If you Eo rded as a census of collect data about the height of everyone in your class, that would be reg your class. Censuses are often used not only to collect data about all units of a population. If you wanted to know how many people live in your street, you would need to list all of the dwellings in the street and then all people living at each of these dwellings. As you do so, you can decide to collect other information, such as age, sex and mother tongue. “That would enable you count the number of men, women and children in your street. So, census is a straight forward means to count the number of units and to produce statistics on their characteristics as well. Advantages of census 1. No sampling variability: no sampling variability attributed to the statistics produced froma census because they are calculated using the entire population. 2. High level of details: with a census, you would’be able to produce statistics for small { sub-groups of the population, as long as you collected the righty classification variables. 3. Direct estimation of counts: a census allows for the direct estimation of the population counts, although some adjustments may be considered for units that couldn’t be reached. Disadvantages of census a : | 1. High cost: conducting # census ofa large population can be very expensive 2, Timeliness: a census generally takes longer to conduct than a sample survey, which means the lag between the reference date and the release of result could be much larger. 3. High response burden: information needs to be received from every member of the population, 4, Less control on quality: ifthe size of the population is much larger than the sample size j of a survey and resources are limited, it is possible that some compromises on quality ey control will be necessary.. For example, it is, possible that only part of the non- respondents will be reached for nonresponse follow-up. 5, Less detailed information: due to cost, response burden and scale of activities needed t to carry a census in a large population, the variables that can be 1 are sometimes limited to a short list of identification and 2, Sample survey A survey is any activity to collect information in en organized and the characteristics of the units of a population. The tom survey is mor sample survey, which means a survey where the information is col units of the target population only. 7 If you collected data about the height of 10 students in a class of 30, that would be a sample survey of the class rather than a census. But ideally, you would want to select them randomly to make sure the 10 students are representative of all students in the class. i P ~ Advantages of sample survey -_ 1. Lower cost: a sample survey costs less than a census seca data is collected from only part of a population. 2. Faster results: results are obtained far more quickly as fewer units need to be contacted and fewer data need to be processed. 3. Lower response burden: fewer people have to respond to the survey. 4, More control on quality: the smaller scale of operations allows for better monitoring 4 and quality control. | Disadvantages of sample survey 1. Sampling variability: if you selected multiple samples from the same population and computed statistics for each of those samples, the results would be a bit different from one sample to another. This source of uncertainty must be taken of in the estimation of statistics from a sample survey. 2. Lower level of details: the sample may not be large enough to produce information about sub-groups of the population or small geographical areas. 3. Administrative data Administrative data is collected as a result of an organization’s day-to-day operations. Examples include data on births, deaths, tax, car registrations and transactional data. These | administrative files can be used as a substitute for a survey or to support surveys (as sampling frames, for imputation, to add new variables, ete.). { Advantages of administrative data | 1. Lower cost: using administrative data is less expensive than censuses and surveys because there are no collection operations. 2. No sampling variance: there is no sampling variability .attributed to the statistic produced from administrative data because they are calculated using entire groups of population. Time series: data are collected on an ongoing basis, allowing for trend analysis. 4, Noresponse burden: since the data are already collected, there is no additional burden on the respondents. 5. High level of details: with administrative data, you would be able to produce statistics for small sub-groups of the population or small geographic area, as long as the right classification variables are present in the file and the subgroups have good coverage. Disadvantages of administrative data 7 j | 1. Less flexibility: unlike a survey, data users have limited control over which variable ' are collected. In some cases, variables can be limited to a few essential administrative information. 2. Lower coverage: data is limited to the population on whom the administrative records are kept. Most of the time, this population is different from the target population which results in sources of under-and over-coverage. 3. Comparatively over time: definitions are'created to serve specific purposes, but often change and evolve over time. 4. Concepis and definitions: the definitions are established by those who create and manage the file for their own purposes and these definitions might not be fit fro use in \ another context. . | 5. Data quality: data quality can be different from one data provider to another because they don’t give the same importance to the different dimensions of quality. Data preparation Data preparation is the process of cleaning and transforming raw data prior to processing and analysis. It is an important step prior to processing and often involves reformatting data, making corrections to data and the combining of data sets to enrich data. Data preparation helps to fix errors quickly, it help to produce top quality data and it helps to make better business decisions. . Data presentation Data presentation is the process of using various graphical formats to visually represent the relationship between two or more data sets so that an informed decision can be made based on. them. There are three methods of data presentation: textual, tabular and diagrammatic. DESIGN OF QUESTIONAIRES A questionnaire is a document or form which contains questions d {nformation from the respondents for the purpose of statistical Objectives of questionnaire design = a, To collect the information required. b. To facilitate interviewing or responses. c. To facilitate data processing. Basic steps in 1. Identify the type of data required from the population of interest or ta 2. The type of information required showed be specified. 3, Write up a first draft. 4, Re - examine and revise the draft. 5, Pre-test the draft. 6. Re - edit ard produce final draft. estionnaire design a In questionnaire design, decisions are taken in the various component of questionnaire. Decisions are taken in the following areas of questionnaire design: : a. Forms of the questions _) b. Question order. | c. Question content. “ d. Question wording e. Question type. ‘Types of Questions in Questionnaire design. Factual questions straight forward types usually requiring sample and straight forward response sc netimes in the form of yes or no. Memory questions those requiring efforts on the part of respondents to remember past happenings. Opinion questions those that seek views or opinion of respondents on certain issues. Structured questions those in which the respondents are guided as to the kind of response expected. Open ended questions those in which the respondents are allowed to respond in their own words, : “» Decisions on Forms of question y ——— 1, A questionnaire should be attractive especially if respondent have to answer unaided. 2. Preferable short questions should be asked. 14 | 3. The questions should be clear and simple. i |g There are five major divisions in the construction, However, | A Identification of the respondent is the first division. |B ttis then followed by classificatory information. C. Topies of the survey. D. Decisions on request for extra comments. E, Acknowledgement. Decision on Question order_ 1, General questions should be asked first. 2, Followed by more specific questions. 3. Ask very intimate or personal information at the very end. Decision on Question 1. Ask orily necessary questions. 2. Sub divides questions into simple ones. ‘ i 3. Sub divides questions into sections or parts. 4, Questions should be within the experience and competence of the respondents. 5. Questions should not be loaded in one direction. Decision on question wording Questions should be: 1. Simple and framed in a way to be interpreted in the same manner by all respondents. 2. Avoid ambiguous statement, terminologies, or technical languages 3. Clear frame of reference is important to make it better understood. | Decision on question type There are two types; a. Closed or fixed response questions. These are well structured or complete statements with their response categories, These types of questions can be; dichotomous e.g. yes or no, scale with various grades e.g. 10-19, 20-29, etc. +b. Open ended questions, ‘This is an unstructured or incomplete statement in which response is recorded directly from the respondents. However, closed or fixed response questions are preferred because it has anumber . of advantages over open ended responses. Advantages of Structured Questions 1. It facilitates coding or processing. 2. Interviewing is faster, it saves time. . It saves space. » . Response is fast. ». Data Processing : z it aed Data processing is the method of collecting raw data and translating it into usable information. . & Iv is usually done in a step by step process. The data is collected, filtered, sorted, processed, Steps in data processing : i e Data processing methods : L 11° analysed, stored and ther presentéd in a readable format like graphs, cherts and dociiments. Collection: the collection of raw data is the first step of the data processing cycle. type of raw data collected: has a huge impact on the output produced. Hence, r should be gathered from defined and acourate sources so that the sequent findings are valid and usable. . Prepar. ation: data preparation or data cleaning is the processing of sorting and Being the raw data to remove unnecessary and inaccurate data. Raw data is checked fo errors, duplicatipn, sniscalculations or missing data, and transformed into a suitable farm for further analy is and processing. This is done to ensure that only the highest auallty data is fed into the processing unit. 4 ‘The purpose of this step isto remove bad data (redundant, incomplete or incor okt be data) so as to begin assembling high-quality information so that it can be used in the best possible way. i ¢ Input: in this step, the raw data is converted into machine readable form and fed into” : thy progessing unit. This can be in the form of data entry through a keyboard, scanner) or any other input source. i . — : a: . Data,processing: in this step, the raw data is subject to various data processing methods using machine learning and artificial intelligence algorithms to generate a de: output. This step may vary slightly from process to process dey on the source of data being processed and the intended use of the output. \ adable form like Output: ithe data is finally transmitted and displayed to the § be stored and ables, vector files, audio, video, documents, ete, this « further processed in the néxt data processing cycle. Storage: the last step of the data processing cycle is storage, wl ila are stored for further use. This allows for quick access and retrieval of information whenever needed, and also allow it to be used as input in the next data processing cycle directly. | , There are ihreé main data processing methods — manual, mechanicat and electronic Manual Data Processing: this data processing method is handled manually. The entire provess of data collection, filtering, sortirig, calculation, and other logical cptstions ave all done with human intervention and without the use of any other electronicidevice 5-8 or automation software, It is low-cost method, and requires little to nofto : produces'high errors, high labor costs, and lots of time and tedium. Mechanical Data Processing: data is processed mechanically through the use offdevice and machines, These can include simple devices such as calculators, typewriters, method more complex and difficult Data is processed with modern technologies using data processing software and | programs. A set of jnstruetions is given to the software to process the data and yield output. This method is the most expensive but provides the fastest processing | speeds with the highest reliability and accuracy of output, Hportance of the = computer as a tool for data Processing or data | The following are the advantages of using computers for data processing: ‘1. Speed: Computer operations are done at the speed of light ie. data is prodesied at a ‘ist fate when using the computer. like human beings. 3: Retiability: Computers can work for long periods of time performing repetitive tasks without complaining and @ user can be sure that a directive given to the compiifer will be carried out j 4 Storage: Computer storage is far more efficient such that the quantity of data stored at any point can be accessed anytime it is required. ; : N and they have total and instant recall of these data. [ sory Capability: Computer system can store a huge amount of or information ‘of information: Computer has the ability to exchange information quickly nays and easily with computers and other devices. & 7.: Bf .ncy and productivity can be raised. | : |. Running cost becomes lower in the long term. : 9, Overall security can be raised due to less human intervention, INDE NUMBER i Introduction ‘The: value of money does not remain constant over time: It rises or falls and is i nverselyfleted tothe changes in the price level. A rise in the price level means a fall in the value of'money s in the Value of ‘anda fall i in the price Jevel means a rise in the value of money. Thus, chan: money are reflected by the changes in the general level of price over a period of time. Changes in the general level of prices can be measured by a statistical device known as index ci ee Ferleet to tims, 60 iaphical location or other characteristics. Pe Features of Index Numbers ga) Index numbers are a special type of average. Whereas mean, median and mode measure the absolute changes and are used to compare only those series which are. expressed in the same units, the technique of index numbers is used to measure the relative changes in the level of a phenomenon where the measurement of absolute change is not possible‘and the series are expressed in different types of items, Index numbers are meant to study the changes in the effects of such factors which cannoy be measured directly, or exarmple, the gener price level is an imaginary concept and is not capable of direct measurement. But, through the technique of inclex aumbers, its possible t have an idea of relative changes in the general level of pr ides by measuring relative changes in the price level of differ variables can be price of suger, the price of milic and th ‘The technique of index mambers is used to compare a certain date with its level on ‘some previous date (e.g. different places on the same date (eg., the price level im D pt comparison with-that in other countries in 2010), a 25 4 ‘Hypes of Index Numbers _ Pa 1. Value Indpx: a value index number is formed from the ratio of the aggregate value for a particuldr period with that of the aggregate value that is found in the base period. The vulue inde is utilized for inventories, sales, and foreign trade, among others. j i md : fo. a il { h . | i +) Quanity findex: a quantity index number is used to measure * changes in the volume or cular, quantities of Rood thee of € ; «shove the relative changes across a sero for part | Induswiall Production (IIP) is an example of Quantity Index. | I "018.) Price Index: a price [Link] is used to measure how price alters across a period. ; Wage rate regulation is consistent with the changes in the price level. With the i Government policies are framed following the index number of prices. Tit price 4 determination of price levels, wage rates may be revised. o stability inherent to fiscal and economic policies is based on index numbers. '4,| Tt gives a pointer for international comparison concerning different economic valiables: | for instance, living standards between two countries, tages of Index Number It adjust primary data at varying costs, which is useful for deflating, It facili itates the { . Index numbers find extensive usage in economics and help in the framing of appropriaté |_| policies. Such finding help with the establishment of researches as wel. k iransformation from nominal wage to real wage. Lthelps in the case of trends such as'drawing outcomes for irregular forces and dyclical | forces. .| Index numbers can be leveraged in case of future developme econornic sphere. This ti | and cyclical developments. 5.; The number is useful in measuring the changes in differenticountries [Link] established period. itations of fndex Number ie chances for errors given that index numbers © 4.) There These samples are put together after deliberation, which creates eb can also be found in weights or base periods ete. 2.: tris always calculated based on items. [Link] are so selected may not exactly be in ' trend, which in turn creates an inaccurate analysis. é ; Multiple methods can be bsed to formulate index numbers. Due to this saipcy of | methods, outcomes may bing forward ¢ a different set of values which may fur lead to confusion, . i a The ow amumbers show the appropriate indications of the relative changes that:occur,.. x ‘| Moreover, the changes inivariables that are compares over a prolonged time shay fall short on isi. :| The sel cto of representative | commodities may be skewed. It is since: these \ i : | i | comniodities are based oni samples. i | | i | ! j !

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