Crop Yield Forecasting Strategies
Crop Yield Forecasting Strategies
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This edited book brings together a diverse array of perspec ves, methodologies, and
case studies that shed light on the path toward sustainable and resilient crop
management. It is the product of a convic on that sustainable agriculture is not a
Ensuring Food
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choice but a responsibility, a commitment to future genera ons and the planet we call
home. The book delves into a range of topics, from soil health and fer lity management
to precision agriculture, crop rota on, and integrated pest management. The aim is not
Security
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only to impart knowledge but to inspire a profound sense of stewardship and a vision
for an agriculture that respects the Earth's capacity for regenera on.
Editors
Us
Sumit Sow
The chapters within this book delve into mul faceted aspects of crop management, Shivani Ranjan
addressing issues of precision agriculture, climate-smart prac ces, technological
interven ons, and the integra on of tradi onal wisdom with cu ng-edge innova ons. Dhirendra Kumar Roy
al
Each contribu on is a unique piece of the puzzle, contribu ng to the broader picture of Navnit Kumar
how we can ensure not only an abundance of crops but also the conserva on of natural
Rajan Kumar
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resources and the mi ga on of environmental impacts. From soil health to pest
management, from the use of advanced technologies to indigenous wisdom, the
content of this book reflects the holis c approach necessary for a comprehensive
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transforma on in crop management prac ces. This book, with its diverse perspec ves,
methodologies, and case studies, provides a valuable resource for those seeking to
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advance sustainable and resilient crop management prac ces.
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ISBN 93-58878-55-X
978-93-58878-55-4
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789358 878554
INR 3995.00 ®
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Revolutionising
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This edited book brings together a diverse array of perspec ves, methodologies, and
case studies that shed light on the path toward sustainable and resilient crop
management. It is the product of a convic on that sustainable agriculture is not a
Ensuring Food
On
choice but a responsibility, a commitment to future genera ons and the planet we call
home. The book delves into a range of topics, from soil health and fer lity management
to precision agriculture, crop rota on, and integrated pest management. The aim is not
e Security
only to impart knowledge but to inspire a profound sense of stewardship and a vision
for an agriculture that respects the Earth's capacity for regenera on.
Editors
Us
Sumit Sow
The chapters within this book delve into mul faceted aspects of crop management, Shivani Ranjan
addressing issues of precision agriculture, climate-smart prac ces, technological
interven ons, and the integra on of tradi onal wisdom with cu ng-edge innova ons. Dhirendra Kumar Roy
al
Each contribu on is a unique piece of the puzzle, contribu ng to the broader picture of Navnit Kumar
how we can ensure not only an abundance of crops but also the conserva on of natural
Rajan Kumar
on
transforma on in crop management prac ces. This book, with its diverse perspec ves,
methodologies, and case studies, provides a valuable resource for those seeking to
Pe
ISBN 93-58878-55-X
978-93-58878-55-4
t
an
9 789358 878554
INR 3995.00 ®
Me
Revolutionising Crop Management
Practices for Ensuring Food Security
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Us
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®
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Mr. Sumit Sow is currently pursuing Ph.D. in Agronomy with
an ICAR-SRF at Dr. Rajendra Prasad Central Agricultural
University, Pusa, Bihar. He completed his graduation from
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Visva-Bharati, West Bengal and his [Link]. in Agronomy with
an ICAR-JRF Scholarship from Bihar Agricultural University,
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Sabour, Bihar. He has qualified for ICAR-NET and UGC-
NET. He has authored two textbooks and four edited books.
Additionally, he has published 12 research articles, 7 review articles, 35 popular
articles, and 25 book chapters. He has received prestigious awards such as Best
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has also received various national awards like Best Article and Best [Link]. Thesis
award.
Dr. Dhirendra Kumar Roy is the Director Seeds and a
Professor-cum-Chief Scientist at Dr. Rajendra Prasad Central
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funded projects and six consultancy projects. He has published 70 research papers,
32 popular articles, 10 technical bulletins, 4 extension bulletins, 6 pamphlets, 3
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students and held various administrative positions. He has published more than 25
research papers, 6 books, 6 book chapters and several popular articles in reputable
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peer-reviewed journals.
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Revolutionising Crop Management
Practices for Ensuring Food Security
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Editors
Sumit Sow
Shivani Ranjan
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®
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© 2024, Editors
Print ISBN: 978-93-58878-55-4
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efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author/s, editor/s and
publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity, accuracy or completeness of all materials
or information published herein or the consequences of their use. The work is published with
the understanding that the publisher and author/s are not attempting to render any professional
services. The author/s, editor/s and publisher have attempted to trace and acknowledge the
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copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication and apologize to copyright
holders if permission and/or acknowledgements to publish in this form have not been taken. If
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any copyrighted material has not been acknowledged, please write to us and let us know so that
we may rectify the error, in subsequent reprints.
Trademark Notice: NIPA®, the NIPA® logos and their presentations (the way they are written/
presented) in this book are the trademarks of the publisher and hence may not be used without
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written permission, if copied or used without authorization, the infringer will be prosecuted as
per law.
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NIPA® also publishes books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print
may not be available in electronic books, and vice versa.
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Preface
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In the ever-evolving landscape of agriculture, the quest for sustainable and efficient
crop management practices has become paramount. We are delighted to publish
our book entitled “Revolutionising Crop Management Practices for Ensuring Food
Security”. In an era marked by environmental challenges, shifting climates, and a
growing global population, the need for innovative and resilient crop management
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practices has never been more pressing. This book brings together a diverse array
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of insights, methodologies, and case studies that collectively illuminate the path
toward ensuring food security for present and future generations.
This book brings together a diverse array of perspectives, methodologies, and case
studies that illuminate the path toward sustainable and resilient crop management.
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It is born out of the conviction that sustainable agriculture is not a choice but a
responsibility, a commitment to future generations and the planet we call home.
We will delve into topics ranging from soil health and fertility management to
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precision agriculture, crop rotation, and integrated pest management. The aim is
not only to impart knowledge but to inspire a profound sense of stewardship and a
vision for an agriculture that respects the Earth's capacity for regeneration.
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The chapters in this edited book delve into multifaceted aspects of crop
management, addressing issues of precision agriculture, climate-smart practices,
technological interventions, and the integration of traditional wisdom with cutting-
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to indigenous wisdom, the content of this book reflects the holistic approach
necessary for a comprehensive transformation in crop management practices.
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We are thankful to NIPA, New Delhi for their interest and effort related to the
publication of the book.
We hope that the compilation in this book inspires policymakers, researchers,
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reality.
Editors
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Contents
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Preface�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������vii
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1 Role of Artificial Intelligence in Crop Production:
Revolutionizing Agriculture for a Sustainable Future............................1
Gaurav Verma, Amit Kumar, Adarsh Kumar, Navish Kumar Kamboj,
Saurav Saha, T.L. Bhutia, Sonam Ongmu Bhutia, Janak Kumar Singh
Sumit Sow and Shivani Ranjan
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2 Biofortification: A New Way to Achieve Food and
Nutritional Security...............................................................................13
Sharad Chenalwad, Pundlik Waghmare, Anil Chavan and Santosh Shinde
3 Crop Modeling and Simulation for Climate Smart Crop
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Production.............................................................................................23
Pundlik Waghmare, Sharad Chenalwad, Santosh Shinde and Anil Chavan
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12 Precision and Data-Driven Farming for Sustainable Agriculture.......137
Santosh Shinde, Pundlik Waghmare, Sharad Chenalwad and Anil Chavan
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13 Recent Advances in Management of Problematic Soil.......................149
Reena Kujur, Shashi Kant Ekka, Heba I. Khan, Eugenia P. Lal and
Ram Bharose
14 Recent Innovations in Nutrient Management for Maximising e
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Crop Production..................................................................................159
Souvik Sadhu, Rajni Prabha Rani, Koushik Barik, Dinabandhu Samanta
and Ritwik Sahoo
15 Regenerative Practices for Restoring the Soil Fertility.......................177
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Sumit Kumar, Rishikesh Yadav, Praveen Kumar Yadav and Sone Lal Patel
16 Water Conservation Techniques for Sustainable Crop Production....195
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Sustainable Agriculture.......................................................................205
Hemareddy Thimmareddy, Nikhil S. Paschapur, A.C. Mahadevaprasad,
Vishwanath V. Meti, R. Divya and Yashwanth H.R.
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Index............................................................................................................................. 215
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17
Weather Variability and Crop Yield
Forecasting for Sustainable Agriculture
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Hemareddy Thimmareddy1, Nikhil S Paschapur2, A.C.
Mahadevaprasad3, Vishwanath V. Meti3, R. Divya3 and
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Yashwanth H.R.3
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Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore Tamil Nadu, India
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Abstract
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presents compelling
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Keywords: Climate Change, Extreme Events. IPCC, Yield Forecasting
Introduction
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Climate change has brought about unprecedented weather variability, disrupting
established patterns and posing significant challenges to global agriculture.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports unequivocal
evidence of increasing temperatures and altered precipitation patterns (IPCC,
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2021). These changes impact crop production, water availability, and overall
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food security, necessitating innovative approaches to ensure sustainable
agriculture in the face of evolving climatic conditions. To address these
challenges, accurate crop yield forecasting becomes paramount. Reliable
predictions empower farmers, policymakers, and agricultural stakeholders
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warming of the Earth's atmosphere (IPCC, 2021). This global warming sets
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and storms are becoming more frequent and intense, disrupting established
climate norms (Ranjan et al., 2021). These variations pose significant
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Weather Variability and Crop Yield Forecasting for Sustainable Agriculture 207
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practices increasingly untenable.
Addressing climate change and weather variability necessitates a multi-faceted
approach. Mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are imperative
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to curb the pace of climate change. Concurrently, adaptation strategies,
informed by accurate climate models and forecasting, are crucial for sectors
like agriculture to build resilience and ensure food security (Rosenzweig et al.,
2014; FAO, 2018). As we navigate these uncharted territories of climate change
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and weather variability, a deeper understanding of the complex interactions
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between human activities, atmospheric processes, and their cascading effects
on weather patterns is essential. This note explores the critical dimensions of
this dynamic relationship, emphasising the urgency for global collaboration
and innovative solutions to mitigate and adapt to the changing climate.
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detailed information on precipitation intensity, wind patterns, and storm
rotation, aiding in the timely issuance of weather warnings (Doviak and
Zrnić, 1993). Lidar, employing laser light, contributes to atmospheric
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profiling and the study of aerosol distribution.
d. Climate Modeling and Simulation: Advanced meteorological
techniques play a pivotal role in climate modeling and simulation.
Complex climate models, such as those employed by the Community
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Earth System Model (CESM), integrate various components of the
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Earth system, including the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and sea
ice (Hurrell et al., 2013). These models aid in understanding long-term
climate trends and predicting the impacts of anthropogenic activities.
e. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning: The integration of
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Agricultural productivity and food security are intricately linked to the ability
to predict crop yields accurately. Crop yield forecasting models have emerged
as crucial tools in the realm of precision agriculture, providing valuable
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insights for farmers, policymakers, and stakeholders. This note explores the
significance of these models, their methodologies, and the impact they have
on sustainable agriculture. Crop yield forecasting models are computational
frameworks that leverage historical and current data, climate information, and
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advanced analytics to estimate future crop yields. These models play a pivotal
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datasets, offering enhanced prediction accuracy (Ruan et al., 2020).
c. Remote Sensing and Satellite Imagery: Remote sensing technologies,
such as satellite imagery, contribute to high-resolution spatial and
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temporal data for crop monitoring. This information aids in assessing
crop health, identifying stress factors, and predicting yield variations.
Models that incorporate remote sensing data provide a dynamic and
real-time dimension to forecasting.
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Data-Driven Decision Support: Crop yield forecasting models serve
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as decision support tools for farmers and policymakers. By offering
early insights into potential yield outcomes, these models empower
stakeholders to make informed decisions regarding planting, irrigation,
and resource allocation. This proactive approach contributes to increased
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Case Studies
United States - Midwest Drought (2012)
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The severe drought in the U.S. Midwest in 2012 showcased the critical role of
forecasting models. Institutions such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
utilised advanced meteorological techniques to predict the drought's impact
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on corn and soybean yields, offering early warnings for farmers to adjust
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strategies.
India - Monsoon Variability (2015)
India's reliance on monsoons was evident in 2015 when erratic patterns
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Brazil - Soybean Production (2020)
In 2020, Brazil encountered weather challenges impacting soybean production.
Forecasting models from the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation
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(EMBRAPA) provided valuable insights, guiding farmers in adjusting planting
schedules and irrigation practices to sustain soybean production.
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China's experience with Typhoon Mangkhut in 2018 highlighted the importance
of meteorological models. The China Meteorological Administration's
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forecasting tools played a crucial role in predicting the typhoon's path, assisting
farmers in East Asia to take preventive measures and minimise damage to rice
crops.
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Funk, 2008).
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data on the performance of these varieties under varying conditions enhances
the accuracy of predictions (Challinor et al., 2018).
Localized and Contextual Models: Tailoring forecasting models to local
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contexts and specific crops can improve accuracy. Recognising the diverse
challenges faced by different regions and crops ensures that forecasting
strategies are relevant and effective (Rosenzweig et al., 2013).
Clean Development Mechanism
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In the fight against climate change, the Kyoto Protocol has implemented a
clean development mechanism. This agreement between developed and
developing countries seeks to reduce emissions to preserve the ozone layer
and strive for a cleaner environment (Sadhu et al., 2022). Within this initiative,
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• Reducing dependence on fossil fuels.
• Harnessing animal excrement for energy generation and actively
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managing it.
• Minimizing pollution generated during manufacturing processes.
Operating Details of Clean Development Mechanism in India
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1. Project Identification: This initial phase involves comprehensive research
to identify a concept capable of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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2. Government Approval: Once the concept is identified, it is submitted to
the Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change for approval
by the Indian government.
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In the face of escalating climate change, there's an urgent call for sustainable
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and machine learning, emerge as vital tools globally. Despite challenges,
global collaboration, technology integration, and resilient crop development
offer hope for a sustainable agricultural future.
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The book challenges conventional agriculture by emphasizing sustainable practices as not merely options but necessities for future food security. It advocates for holistic approaches that integrate technology with ecological and traditional methods, thereby questioning entrenched industrial practices and promoting agriculture that respects and leverages natural regenerative processes .
Weather variability, characterized by deviations from average conditions and extreme events like heatwaves, floods, and droughts, disrupts established climate norms. This variability impacts crop growth, water availability, and yield, causing uncertainties in planting times, water resource management, and pest control, thus challenging traditional farming practices .
Government initiatives support sustainable crop management by implementing policies that promote climate resilience, informed water management, and evidence-based agricultural planning. These measures enable the adoption of innovative practices and technologies, thereby enhancing sustainability and boosting food security in times of climatic challenges .
Legume cultivation faces challenges such as pest control, soil fertility needs, and climate sensitivity. However, its potential to enhance soil nitrogen, offer nutritional benefits, and its adaptability to diverse environmental conditions make legumes a promising crop for future sustainable agricultural systems .
Traditional wisdom plays a crucial role in sustainable agriculture by integrating age-old practices with modern innovations to form comprehensive crop management strategies. This approach conserves natural resources, respects ecological balances, and ensures the regenerative capacity of the Earth, which are essential for sustained food productivity in changing environmental conditions .
Remote sensing technology enhances crop management by providing high-resolution spatial and temporal data that facilitate crop monitoring and health assessment. It identifies stress factors affecting crops, incorporates real-time data into decision-making, and supports dynamic and precise interventions, ultimately improving yield prediction and resource management under varying climatic conditions .
Climate change introduces increased variability and unpredictability in weather patterns, complicating accurate crop yield predictions. However, advancements in forecasting models that incorporate climate data and methodologies such as machine learning aim to improve accuracy, enabling stakeholders to navigate these uncertainties and make informed agricultural decisions .
Data integration is vital for crop yield forecasting as it combines meteorological data, current land conditions, and historical yields into comprehensive models. This amalgamation enhances the accuracy of predictions, providing valuable insights for resource planning, risk management, and adaptation strategies under variable climatic conditions .
Machine learning methods, such as support vector machines, random forests, and neural networks, enhance crop yield forecasting models by identifying complex patterns within large datasets. These improved models offer enhanced prediction accuracy, mitigating risks associated with weather variability and optimizing resource allocation for sustainable agriculture .
Advanced crop yield forecasting models use vast datasets and climate information to optimize resource use, thus reducing waste and lessening environmental impact. These models help in planning and executing agricultural activities that align with environmental conservation goals, contributing to mitigation of climate change effects and promoting sustainable agriculture .