Approved Learning Partner
in Egypt and Middle East
FPAC Part I Certificate
Beacon Holding
Firmly believes that companies and banks that pay less attention to the
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International
Institutions
and Affiliation
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International Certifications
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Welcome to FPAC Part I
Financial Planning & Analysis
Certification
Sayed Aref
Develop the Change Vision
a financial orientation and help them think of their
FPAC Part I Certificate
FPAC Structure
Part 1 (13 Topics) Part 2 (12 Topics)
. .
Domain A Domain A
1. Finance Principles & Processes (5) 1. Sales Volume & Revenue Projections
2. Strategy (4) 2. Financial Statements Projections
3. Financial Accounting & Reporting (6) 3. Valuing Projects, Customers, Deals & Products
4. Ratio Analysis (6) 4. Risk Analysis
5. Managerial & Cost Accounting (4) 5. Analyzing Information & Giving Feedback
6. Macroenvironment Domain B
7. Microeconomics
6. Specifying Outputs & Getting Inputs
Domain B . 7. .
Improving the quality of information
8. Using Worksheets & Worksheet Functions 8. Refining Data, Risks, Opportunities & Plans
9. Working with Data 9. Building & refining Models
Domain C 10. Using Models & Sensitivities / Scenarios
11. Making Conclusions & recommendations
10. Information & FP&A
11. Organization Domain C
12. Industry 12. Effective Communication
13. Managing FP&A Projects
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1 Macroenvironment Metrics
Chapter 6 2 Macroenvironment Forces
Macro
environment 3 Scanning for Environmental Risks
4 Sources of Macroenvironment Information
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Macroenvironment
Metrics
FPAC Part I Certificate
What is Macroeconomics?
• Macroeconomics refers to the behavior of the
economy as a whole-as opposed to
microeconomics, which relates to the market
interactions of individual firms and the effect of
price on income and resource allocation.
• FP&A is concerned with macroeconomics
because of the way changes in the economy can
affect forecasts and projections for the
organization and the entire industry.
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PESTLE Analysis
Political
P
E Economic
Environmental E
S Social
L
Legal
T
Technological
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Macroenvironment Forces: PESTLE
P E S T L E
Political Economic Social Technology Legal Environment
• stability of • economic • income • international • taxation • regulations and
government growth distribution influences policies restrictions
• potential • employment • demographic • changes in • employment • attitudes of
changes to rates influence information laws customers
legislation • monetary • lifestyle factors technology • industry
• global policy • take up rates regulations
influence • consumer • health and
confidence safety
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Macroenvironment
Forces
FPAC Part I Certificate
Macro Env. Metrics - Political Indicators:
The World Bank regularly publishes a survey of “Worldwide Governance Indicators”. he Bank
uses 6 performance indicators:
• Voice and accountability: the extent to which a country's citizens are able to participate in
selecting their gov.
• Political stability and absence of violence:
• Government effectiveness: quality of public service (heath, education, etc)
• Regulatory quality: ability to implement sound policies
• Rule of law: extent to which countries adhere to rule of law
• Control of corruption: public power
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Economic Indicators:
• Economic indicators include measures as: Changes in GDP,
household income, employment rates, levels of savings.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI): is a measure that examines the
weighted average prices of a basket of consumer goods &
services. It is calculated by taking price changes for each
item in the basket & averaging them & used to measure
Inflation.
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Metrics: Economic Indicators
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Updated Cost
CPI = x 100
Base Cost
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Social Indicators
Social indicators include demographic data, which can
affect consumer demand and labor supply. Demographic
data include:
• Population size and growth rate
• Population distribution by age
• Geographical distribution
• Household size
• Levels of education / Health (mortality rates)
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Technological Indicators
Indicators of an economy’s technological growth are both
quantitative and qualitative. They could include:
• Business investment in R&D
• Government investment in R&D (e.g., tax deductions)
• The number of patents awarded
• Strength of intellectual property rights
• High-speed Internet access
• Data security
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Metrics: Legal Indicators
Whether the The ease with Criminal
system is clear, which class liability for an
transparent, action suits can organization’s
accessible and be filed management
fair
Whether the
system provides Size of
equal access compensatory
and treatment and punitive
for non-citizens damages
and foreign
businesses
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Legal Indicators
Organizations, especially multinationals and global
organizations, may judge legal systems by:
• Whether the system is clear, transparent, accessible and
fair
• Whether the system provides equal access and treatment
for non-citizens and foreign businesses
• The ease with which class action suits can be filed
• Size of compensatory and punitive damages
• Criminal liability for an organization’s management
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Environmental Indicators
Organizations need healthy environments-as measured
by air quality, temperatures and reliable access to water.
Sustainable practices could include:
• Practices to curb carbon consumption and emissions, such
as carbon taxes and carbon offset markets.
• Regulations about water and land use and management
of waste.
• Tax policies to promote renewable energy development
and use.
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AD-AS Model
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Inflation
Inflation occurs in two contexts:
When AD increases and AS and LRAS remain constant,
prices rise. Consumers have more money to spend, but
short-term supplies have not been able to grow quickly
enough to meet increased demand.
When AS decreases temporarily, prices rise. Eventually
the price increase will drive supplies back up.
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Deflation
Deflation occurs when:
Demand and supply decrease and LRAS remains
the same
During a recession, falling demand causes GDP to
contract for two consecutive quarters. If the LRAS
also decreases at the same time, a depression may
occur.
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AD-AS Model: Axes represent “Overall” price or output levels
This model is built on the relationship between the total value of final
goods and services produced within a country—real gross domestic
product (real GDP / Output)—and the price of goods. Price is a
weighted average of all the products and services sold in the economy.
AD Curve: downward sloping, as prices increases, people become
poorer and reduce their purchase of overall goods & services. But as
the price level falls, the purchasing power of money rises. Buyers
become wealthier and are able to purchase more goods and services
(wealth effect).
AS Curve: the higher the price levels, the more sellers will be willing to
supply – therefore upward sloping reflecting the + relationship
between price level and quantity of goods supplied.
LR AS: In the long‐run, the increase in prices that sellers receive for their
final goods is completely offset by the proportional increase in the
prices that sellers pay for inputs. The result is that the quantity of real
GDP supplied by all sellers in the economy is independent of changes in
the price level.
Equilibrium: the point at which the economy is producing enough to
meet demand, no more no less.
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Parallel Shift of AD Curve
A shift to the right of the aggregate demand curve. from
AD 1 to AD 2, means that at the same price levels the
quantity demanded of real GDP has increased. A shift to
the left of the aggregate demand curve, from AD 1 to AD 3,
means that at the same price levels the quantity demanded
of real GDP has decreased.
Suppose consumers were to decrease their spending on all
goods and services, perhaps as a result of a recession. Then,
the aggregate demand curve would shift to the left
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Inflation and Deflation
Inflation (sustained increase in price levels) occurs in two
contexts:
• When AD increases and AS and LRAS remain constant.
Consumers have more money to spend, but short-term
supplies have not been able to grow quickly enough to
meet increased demand, hence prices rise.
• When AS decreases temporarily, prices rise. Eventually
the price increase will drive supplies back up.
Deflation: (sustained decrease in price levels) occurs when:
• Demand decreases and/or supply increases and LRAS
remains the same.
Recession:
• A decline in real GDP greater than 10 percent, or
• Duration of more than three years
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Macroeconomic Effects of AD Line
The AD line can be affected by changes in:
• Consumer spending
• Investment rates and returns
• Government spending
• Net export spending
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What Macroeconomic changes can move AD
curves?
Consumer Spending: Lowering taxes for ex. will increase
net household income and demand for goods.
Government Spending: lowering taxes or higher
government spending will increase demand.
Investment Rates: low rates increases borrowing and
increases demand.
Net Export Spending: a rise in net exports creates more
demand, depreciated currency increases exports.
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Some groups are hurt by inflation while others
benefit.
• Consumers on fixed incomes
Those hurt • Consumers and organizations relying on savings to generate
include: income
• Creditors
Those who benefit • Flexible-income receivers (e.g., pension recipients who receive
include: automatic cost-of-living adjustments)
• Debtors
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Macroeconomic Effects of AS Line
The AS line can be affected by changes in:
• Input prices
• Productivity
• Legal/regulatory
• environment
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What Macroeconomic changes can move AS
curves?
• Input Prices: Decreases in cost of production (wages,
equipment, materials). Ex: discovery of new minerals
increases supplies.
• Productivity: New technology, streamlined supply chains
and better educated workers can all contribute to greater
productivity, increasing supply curve.
• Legal / Regulatory Environment: Ex: labor tax increase,
increases the unit cost of goods.
"Analysts must be aware of economic movement in supply and demand that can change prices
and GDP. These macroeconomic changes have microeconomic effects.
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Business Cycles
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Business Cycles
• Business cycles, or fluctuations in GDP, reflect the economy’s struggle to reach equilibrium between supply
and demand.
• Cycles are not usually the same length, nor do they necessarily have the same amplitudes
At peaks: the economy is near full
employment, production is near capacity,
and prices are usually higher. For
different reasons, the economy then slips
into recession. GDP, employment and
output all decline. Gradually the
economy recovers, with increases in GDP
and employment.
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Fluctuation Causes
Innovation Pressures on Monetary
productivity policies
Political Financial
events instability
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Questions
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Scanning for Environmental
Risks
FPAC Part I Certificate
Overview of Environmental Risks
Scanning of the macroenvironment is a key part of risk
management in order to:
• Reduce random information flowing into the organization
• Provide early warnings to managers for changing external
conditions.
• Hence organization can plan responses & react quickly.
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Examples of Macroenvironmental Risks/Opportunities in PESTLE
categories
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Examples of Macroenvironmental Risks/Opportunities in PESTLE
categories
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Examples of Macroenvironmental Risks/Opportunities in PESTLE
categories
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Examples of Macroenvironmental Risks/Opportunities in PESTLE
categories
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Questions
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Sources of Macroenvironment
Information
FPAC Part I Certificate
FP&A can gather macroeconomic data from
International Organizations:
• World bank for example publishes reports on global trends and
economic data by region / country like GDP, FDI, government
deficits, debt levels, etc.
• The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
offers selected country statistics at its site ([Link]), including
economic projections and interest rate histories
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade
Organization (WTO) publish on their Web sites global and regional
economic reports and forecasts.
Country or Regional Agencies: Examples include:
• Federal bureaus: such as Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLR) and
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) provides international
and regional economic data as well as industry data.
• Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve System in the U.S., the
European Central Bank.
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Scanning for Environmental Risks
Environmental Scanning
A systematic collection of external information in order to
(1) lessen the randomness of information flowing into the
organization and
(2) provide early warnings for managers of changing external
conditions.
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Source of Macroenvironment Information
Published risk Think tanks
guides
Country or
regional In-house staff
agencies
International Macro-
organizations economic Consultants
data
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Questions
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Thank you
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