SIJDEB , 8 (1), 2024, 107-128

p-ISSN: 2581-2904, e-ISSN: 2581-2912

DOI: [Link]
Received: 19th Jan 2024; Revised: 21st July 2024; Accepted: 3rd Aug 2024

SRIWIJAYA INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DYNAMIC

ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS
[Link]

Analysis of Sustainable Food Sector Development in the

Sumatra Island
Rita Suirlan1 and Nurnaningsih2
Department of Economics and Development Studies,
1,2

Faculty of Economics and Business, Tadulako University, Palu, Indonesia

Corresponding Author: aristasuirlan88@[Link]

Abstract: The research aims to analyze the development of food security through indicators of the
sustainable food sector on the island of Sumatra in 2018-2022. Food sector indicators include the
number of poor people, food inflation, rice consumption per capita, insufficient food consumption,
and food insecurity. Food security indicators use the food security index. The research method is
quantitative through secondary data collection with panel data analysis from cross section results of
10 provinces on the island of Sumatra and time series data for 2018-2022. The approach used,
namely CEM, FEM, REM. The research findings show that the food inflation variable has a
positive and significant effect on the food security index, the poor population variable, rice
consumption per capita, insufficient food consumption has a positive and insignificant effect on
the food security index. Population with food insecurity has a negative and insignificant effect on
the food security index.

Keywords: Sustainable Food Sector, Food Security

Introduction
Food security as mentioned in Law Number 18 of 2012, is the condition of food
fulfillment for the state and individuals, which is reflected in the availability of sufficient
food, both in quantity and quality, safe, diverse, nutritious, evenly distributed, and
affordable and not conflicting. with the religion, beliefs and culture of the community, to
be able to live a healthy, active and productive life in a sustainable manner. Food security
has milestones in its development over time which are seen in four periods based on the
development of world awareness of the importance of food security, years 1930-1945
(marked by the post-First World War situation and the role of the League of Nations),
1945-1970 (marked by the emergence of the World Food Organization (FAO), a food
surplus situation and food aid), the years 1970-1990 (marked by awareness of the
importance of world food security), and the years 1990-now (marked by the golden age of
world food security) (Syaparuddin & Nuzul, 2021).
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The World Food Summit in 1996 defined food security as a situation where all people can
have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their daily needs. Increasing
concerns about food security in food insecure areas of the world show the inadequacy of
sectoral approaches in dealing with agricultural problems (Bhaduri et al., 2018). Based on
the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, in 2014-2016 Asia was a food insecure region,
especially in the Southeast Asia Region (Cafiero et al., 2018). The 2018 Global Hunger
Index (GHI) shows that the level of hunger and malnutrition in the world is in the serious
category; including Indonesia with a GHI score of 21.9, there is a serious level of hunger
(Hadi et al., 2019).

The development of food security policies has an impact on the development of food
security measures. Therefore, food security measures then cover various levels, ranging
from global, national, regional, community, household to individual coverage. At the
regional level which includes global, national and regional, measuring food security can use
various indicators, including: (1) level of food production, availability, consumption and
trade, (2) ratio of food stock and consumption, (3) level score availability and consumption,
(4) food security conditions, (5) institutional conditions of community food reserves, and
(6) ability to carry out food stocks (Syaparuddin & Nuzul, 2021).

The agricultural development strategy during the 2015-2019 period will focus on 7 (seven)
Main Strategies for Strengthening Agricultural Development for Food Sovereignty
(SADFS), namely (1) increasing land availability and utilization; (2) improving agricultural
infrastructure and facilities; (3) development and expansion of seed/seedling logistics; (4)
strengthening farmer institutions; (5) development and strengthening of agricultural
financing; (6) development and strengthening of bioindustry and bioenergy; (7)
strengthening agricultural product market networks. Apart from the seven main strategies,
there are 9 (nine) supporting strategies, namely: (1) strengthening and increasing the
capacity of agricultural human resources; (2) increasing quarantine support; (3) increasing
innovation and technology support; (4) public information services; (5) regulatory
management; (6) management of information and communication technology; (7) planning
management; (8) structuring and strengthening the organization; and (9) management of
the supervision system (Sulaiman et al., 2018).

Efforts to achieve sustainable food security in Indonesia by 2025, based on challenges and
their handling, over the last five years, at a macro level, Indonesia has been able to provide
sufficient food to meet the needs of its citizens, but the quality of food consumption has
decreased. On average, Indonesian people are still below the recommendations of nutrition
experts. The challenge of sustainable food security includes the supply side and the needs
fulfillment side. To overcome these challenges, it is necessary to adjust the direction of
food security development policies, especially in setting goals, choosing how to achieve
goals, and determining national food security targets (Achmad, 2014).

Integrated Smart Food Safety System Platform concluded that the problems that are often
encountered in the food supply chain are uncertainty in demand and supply because data
discrepancies often occur from both the producer and consumer side, crop failure due to
lack of product quality monitoring which results in consumers returning the product to the
producer. ISFSSP (Integrated Smart Food Security System Platform) is a problem-solving
solution for managing the risk of food supply chain insecurity. Factors that influence the

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food supply chain are extreme climate change, pandemics, macroeconomics, trade disputes
and geographical conditions (Sumarni et al., 2023).

The challenges in achieving food self-sufficiency in Indonesia are the decline in land
production and the reduction in labor in the agricultural sector. Special efforts in
developing food agriculture, especially within the framework of the national food security
program, namely efforts to increase food crop productivity, efforts to increase the
expansion of new agricultural land (Chaireni et al., 2020). Furthermore, the impact of
population on sustainable food security is that to achieve food security, approaches to food
availability and ownership need to be considered and for sustainable food security a new
paradigm is needed). The challenge towards sustainable Indonesian food security in 2025
will be increasingly difficult (Khairi et al., 2020).

The island of Sumatra is divided into ten (10) provinces with different regional
characteristics in terms of area, population and regional potential. Jambi Province is
the largest province with an area of 89,935.90 km2 with the largest population center in
North Sumatra Province at 15,115.2 thousand people. Viewed from the economic
aspect, the highest economic growth was in South Sumatra Province at 5.23 percent
which was supported by the mining and quarrying sector; and the agriculture, forestry
and fisheries sectors (Central Bureau of Statistics, 2023).

The role of the agricultural sector on the island of Sumatra is considered quite
significant in supporting economic performance. Apart from that, this sector has an
important role in meeting the food needs of the population on the island of Sumatra,
which amounts to 59,977.3 thousand people in 2022 and continues to increase every
year (Central Bureau of Statistics, 2023). Even though it is supported by an adequate
agricultural sector, this does not mean that Sumatra Island has strong food security.
(Food Security Agency, 2023) noted that the food security index for Sumatra Island in
2018 reached 67.84 percent to 70.97 percent in 2022. Meanwhile, the food insecurity
rate for Sumatra Island was at the moderate food insecurity level, which was 7.06
percent lower than Indonesia's food insecurity rate of 8.23 percent in 2018 and 2022 of
4.65 percent. The movement in food insecurity figures was also followed by the
percentage of population according to Food Consumption Inadequacy (PoU) status which
was in the medium category at 9.65 percent in 2018 increasing to 11.42 percent in 2022.

Malthus' concept which states that food growth is like an arithmetic series and population
growth is like a geometric series, seems to be gaining momentum at the moment. The
island of Sumatra, which has positive population growth, if not accompanied by an
increase in food production, will most likely face obstacles in meeting the food needs of its
population in the future. (Chaireni et al., 2020) stated that the general problem regarding
food security is a large population with positive population growth. So food needs continue
to increase along with the increase in population. In terms of fulfillment, not all food needs
can be met, because food production and distribution capacity is increasingly limited. This
causes food instability between national needs and fulfillment. Data on rice consumption
per capita for 2018-2022 in various provinces on the island of Sumatra shows a downward
trend from 95.46 kg/capita/year to 92.27 kg/capita/year. (Rachman et al., 2019) stated that
farmers are generally rice consumers because most farmers sell their crops and buy rice to
meet basic food needs. An increase in rice prices can also have a negative impact on the
stability of prices of goods in general. (Tessalonica et al., 2023) and (Wehantouw et al.,

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2021) stated that rice consumption has a positive and significant effect on food security.
Apart from that, (Joseph, 2017) saying that part of people's consumption habits is generally
grains which reaches 1,166.9 kcal/capita/day, the total energy supply (AKG) of society is
2,021 kcal/capita/day, so rice is the staple food. The more rice consumed, the better the
level of food security (Ali et al., 2017). (Erokhin & Gao, 2020) suggests that food insecurity
is influenced by food prices or inflation. Research shows (Prabayanti et al., 2022) that the
price of rice has a negative and significant effect on food security.

The concept of sustainable food sector development is related to the issue of food
security. At the beginning of the New Order era, food security policy in Indonesia was
based on a food supply approach known as the FAA (Food Availability Approach). This
approach does not pay attention to aspects of distribution and access to food. The
assumption underlying this approach is that if food supplies are available, traders will
distribute food throughout the region efficiently. In addition, food prices will remain stable
at a reasonable level so that the whole family can afford it. Even though food availability is
sufficient, some people still experience hunger because they do not have enough access to
food. This phenomenon is called the “hunger paradox”. This is what causes the food
availability approach to fail to achieve sustainable food security in several countries (Rahayu
et al., 2019). Furthermore, in 2015 the United Nations (UN) in the 2030 Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) through goal number two, namely Zero Hunger which aims
to end hunger, achieve food security, improve nutrition and encourage sustainable
agriculture (Hatmanto & Setyono, 2018). The UN SDGs give top priority to food and
energy security (Kline et al., 2017). The concepts of the hunger paradox and zero hunger
are closely related to poverty. The number of poor people on the island of Sumatra in 2018
was 10.00 percent and continued to decline until 2022 to 9.22 percent. In line with what
was stated (Wehantouw et al., 2021), poverty has an insignificant negative effect on food
security. (Rahmanto et al., 2021) stated that in Indonesia, the food diversification program
was correlated with a decrease in the number of rural poor by 4.7% (from 16.31 people to
15.54 people).

The picture of food security is seen from the aspects of food availability, food affordability
and food utilization. Thus, strengthening food security is proxied by the food security
index. Meanwhile, to see the sustainable food sector, it is proxied by the percentage of
poor people, food inflation, rice consumption per capita, inadequate food consumption
(PoU), and food insecurity. These five variables are the challenges for the future of
Sumatra Island in achieving a sustainable food sector. This means that when there is an
increase in the number of poor people, food inflation, insufficient food consumption, then
food insecurity will increase so that the government's efforts to achieve superior and
strategic food security are not achieved. This means that these four variables have a
negative relationship with food security. Meanwhile, to increase per capita rice
consumption, it is necessary to increase the availability of food production so that food
security increases, meaning that this variable has a positive relationship with food security.
This research aims to analyze the development of food security through sustainable food
sector indicators on the island of Sumatra.

Based on previous research that has been presented, researchers tried to examine food
sector indicators in strengthening food security on the island of Sumatra, by using several
indicator variables for food security. This research combines several variables, percentage
of poor people, food inflation, rice consumption per capita, inadequate food consumption,

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and food insecurity. So the novelty of this research is the use of four main indicators of the
food sector on Sumatra Island which include food inflation, rice consumption per capita,
insufficient food consumption, and food insecurity, as well as their impact on food security
on Sumatra Island.

This research contributes in three parts: first, adding facts about strong food security on
the island of Sumatra, through strengthening the sustainable food sector. Second, different
from the national scale, Sumatra Island considers the percentage of poor people, food
inflation, rice consumption per capita, inadequate food consumption, and food insecurity
as factors that strengthen Sumatra Island's food security. Third, the variables percentage of
poor people, food inflation, rice consumption per capita, inadequate food consumption,
and food insecurity have an influence on food security.

Literature Review
Food Security Theory

Food security is a condition where food is met for the country and individuals, which is
reflected in the availability of sufficient food, both in quantity and quality, safe, diverse,
nutritious, equitable and affordable and does not conflict with the religion, beliefs and
culture of the community, to be able to live a healthy, active and productive life in a
sustainable manner. Food and nutrition security development is carried out systemically by
involving cross-sectors. This approach is directed at realizing adequate food availability
through domestic food production and trade; achieving stability in food availability and
access at macro-meso and micro levels; adequate quality (food diversity and safety) and
quantity of food consumption supported by infrastructure improvements. To realize these
conditions, macroeconomic policy support is needed that is able to achieve economic
stability, guaranteeing stability in food supplies and prices (Food Security Agency, 2022).

In 1996, the World Food Summit adopted the definition of food security, i.e. all people, at
all times, achieve food security when they have physical and economic access to sufficient,
safe and nutritious food to meet the food needs and food preferences of their active lives.
and healthy (Vos et al., 2022). Furthermore, a study conducted by Amartya Sen (Mahmood,
2022) identified a new emphasis on consumption, the demand side, and the issue of
vulnerable communities' access to food. Avoiding the concept of food security, it focuses
on the rights of individuals and households. The problem of food security has several
aspects. Therefore, the provision of safe, nutrient-dense and quantitatively adequate food,
as well as universal access to food, is necessary for food security. These are the three
aspects of food security.

The level of food security in a region and its supporting factors has developed an
assessment system in the form of the Food Security Index (FSI) which refers to the
definition of food security and the subsystems that make up the food security system. The
nine indicators used in preparing the FSI are derivatives of three aspects of food security,
namely availability, affordability and utilization of food (Food Security Agency, 2022).
Referring to the concept developed by the Indonesian Food Security Agency, the Food
Security Pillar is viewed from the Food Availability Aspect, including indicators of
domestic food production, food stocks/reserves, exports and imports. Aspects of Food
Affordability include distribution indicators, supply and price stability, logistics systems,

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stock management, people's purchasing power, access to markets and information. The
Food Utilization aspect includes indicators of improving consumption patterns,
diversifying consumption, improving nutrition, food safety and quality (Food Security
Agency, 2022).

Meanwhile, apart from the food security pillar concept, there are 9 indicators developed by
the Indonesian Food Security Agency which are used to measure the Food Security Index,
including the indicators of the ratio of normative consumption per capita to net
production; Percentage of population living below the poverty line; Percentage of
households with the proportion of expenditure on food more than 65 percent of total
expenditure; Percentage of households without access to electricity; The average length of
schooling for women is over 15 years; Percentage of households without access to clean
water; The ratio of population per health worker to population density level; Percentage of
toddlers with height below standard (stunting); Life expectancy at birth (Food Security
Agency, 2022).

The Declining Food Availability Theory claims that a sharp decline in the amount of food
available causes food insecurity. This theory treats the issue of food availability as the same
as the issue of food security. As long as a decrease in the amount of available food
resources is recognized as a cause of food insecurity, this ignores any causes or
circumstances that might lead to a lack of food supply (Mahmood, 2022). The core
hypothesis of this theory is that food insecurity is caused by a sharp decline in available
food supplies. In other words, this theory equates the problem of food security with the
problem of food availability. This ignores any reasons or conditions that could explain the
lack of food supply and remains reasonable as long as food insecurity is accepted to result
from a reduction in available food resources (Mahmood, 2022). Sen's Rights Theory First
published in 1981, Amartya Sen's property rights theory offers an alternative framework for
analyzing hunger by redefining the issue of food security as an issue of demand specifically,
the inability of individuals to obtain basic foods rather than the decline and scarcity of food
supplies. Sen observed famines in Asia and Africa, and concluded that food shortages not
only put a person at risk of starvation and starvation, but also reduced their privileges in
trade (Kungu & Iraya, 2017).

The Relationship between Poor Population and Food Security

Poverty is a condition of a person's inability to fulfill basic needs, both food and non-food,
as measured in terms of expenditure. Efforts made by the government to maintain stable
food security for the survival of the existing community and to reduce the existing poverty
rate (Central Bureau of Statistics, 2023). (Food Security Agency, 2022) stated that the
indicator of the population living below the poverty line shows the rupiah value of per
capita expenditure every month to meet the minimum standards of food and non-food
consumption needs needed by an individual to live a decent life. People living below the
poverty line do not have sufficient purchasing power to meet their basic living needs,
which will affect food security. In line with what was stated (Wehantouw et al., 2021),
poverty has an insignificant negative effect on food security, meaning that an increase in
food security will be followed by a reduction in poverty. (Rahmanto et al., 2021)stated that
food security through food diversification programs can reduce the number of rural poor
people.
H1: The poor population has a negative relationship with the food security index.

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The Relationship between Food Inflation and Food Security

Food inflation is an increase in food prices caused by limited stocks of food commodities
in many regions. According to (Erokhin & Gao, 2020) him, food inflation is the percentage
change in the price of a basket of standard food from month to month which is calculated
from the national Consumer Price Index. Food inflation is used to determine the effect of
changes in access to food and agricultural products on food security. This choice correlates
well with recommendations (Huseynov, 2019) that use exchange rates, inflation rates, and
food trade as variables to identify short- and long-term impacts on food security.
Furthermore, (Erokhin & Gao, 2020) he stated that the risk of food security arises because
economic access to food availability and access to basic commodities in food insecure
communities is influenced by food prices or inflation. The increase in food inflation
worsens food access in African Group 1 countries because it is closely related to the
increase in the number of people whose food consumption is insufficient. This correlates
with FAO estimates that the cost of a healthy diet in 2020 has exceeded the international
poverty line, making it unaffordable for the poor and thereby triggering food insecurity in
most developing countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

Research shows (Prabayanti et al., 2022)that the price of rice has a negative and significant
effect on food security. The research results (Shilwatso et al., 2024) show that food
inflation has a significant negative effect on food security, which shows that an increase in
food inflation of 1 percentage reduces Kenya's food security performance by 15.31 percent,
if all other factors are considered constant.
H2: Food inflation has a negative relationship with the food security index.

The Relationship between Per Capita Rice Consumption and Food Security

Average Consumption per Capita a Week is the average consumption of several types of
food that are commonly consumed. Presentation of per capita consumption per year by
multiplying per capita consumption per week multiplied by 365/7. Food consumption is
the type and amount of food (both original and processed) consumed by a person/resident
within a certain period of time (as well as normative consumption) for a healthy and
productive life (Food Security Agency, 2023). Various literature shows that per capita
food consumption, especially rice, has an influence on food security. (Ali et al., 2017)
stated that rice consumption that is too high could be a threat if rice production decreases
due to extreme weather changes and natural disasters hitting various rice producing areas.
This can ultimately affect food security, especially food security in areas that produce these
commodities. The community must pay attention to the availability of rice and also access
to food in an area so that the area can be called a food secure area. This is in accordance
with the statement (Tessalonica et al., 2023) and (Wehantouw et al., 2021) suggests that rice
consumption has a positive and significant effect on food security. This means that if rice
consumption increases, food security will also increase. (Joseph, 2017) in his research
results, he said that generally people have the habit of consuming rice as a staple food. So
the results of this research are strengthened by (Ali et al., 2017) the fact that the more rice
consumed by the community, the better the level of food security in a region, which means
that if rice consumption increases, food security will also increase
H3: Per capita rice consumption has a positive relationship with the food security index.

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The Relationship between Inadequate Food Consumption (Pou) and Food Security

Inadequate food consumption or what is called PoU (Prevalence of Undernourishment), or

Prevalence of Inadequate Food Consumption, is a condition where a person regularly
consumes food that is less than their energy needs or does not provide enough energy
needed to live a normal, active and healthy life. There are 5 (five) PoU status classifications,
namely < 2.5% very low, 2.5% - 4% low, 5% - 19% medium, 20% - 34% high and > 35%
very high (Food Security Agency, 2023). The PoU indicator is often used to calculate
food insecurity rates based on calorie intake limits calculated by considering gender, age,
height and weight. However, in the research the PoU variable is used with the aim of
seeing whether the movement of the PoU indicator influences the food security index on
the island of Sumatra. This means that when PoU increases, the food security index
decreases in the sense that PoU is negatively related to the food security index. In some of
the literature examined, the PoU indicator is more widely used to see the reduction in
stunting rates. As research (Istiqomah, 2022) suggests, the prevalence of inadequate food
consumption has a negative influence on the prevalence of stunting. Furthermore, the
Food Security Agency, 2023) stated that toddlers who experience stunting generally have
inadequate nutritional status due to lack of access to food. (Istiqomah, 2022) states that the
prevalence of inadequate food consumption is an estimate of the proportion of a certain
population, where the usual daily energy consumption from food is insufficient to meet the
energy levels needed for a normal, active and healthy life. So this indicator describes
changes in food availability and the ability of households to access that food, at different
socio-economic levels, as well as at national and sub-national levels. The PoU concept
makes it possible to estimate conditions of severe food shortages in large populations, so
this indicator is used to measure targets for eliminating hunger globally.
H4: Insufficient food consumption has a negative relationship with the food security index.

The Relationship between Food Insecurity and Food Security

Food Insecurity or FIES (Food Insecurity Experianced Scale), which is a food insecurity
rate based on a food insecurity experience scale. The FIES score consists of (1) mild food
insecurity or worry with a score of <4, (2) moderate, namely compromise with the quality
and type of food or compromise with the quantity of food with a score of 4-6 and (3)
severe, namely not eating or being hungry because lack of money or other resources with a
score of 7-8 (Food Security Agency, 2023). In the research, the FIES variable is used with
the aim of seeing whether the movement of the FIES indicator influences the food security
index on the island of Sumatra. This means that when FIES increases, the food security
index decreases in the sense that FIES is negatively related to the food security index.
Research shows (Istiqomah, 2022)that the FIES indicator is used to see a reduction in
stunting rates, with the research results that the prevalence of food insecurity (FIES) has a
negative influence on the prevalence of stunting. The prevalence of food insecurity
measures the percentage of individuals in the population nationwide who have experienced
or experienced moderate or severe levels of food insecurity at least once in the past 12
months. A person's inability to access food can be seen from different experiences and
socio-economic and cultural levels. The research (Nikmah & Ratnasari, 2017)used variables
of food availability, food access, food absorption on food insecurity which showed positive
and significant results. This means that the better the factors of food availability, food

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access, and food absorption in a region, the better the influence on increasing food
insecurity in that region.
H5: Food insecurity has a negative relationship with the food security index.

Referring to the conceptual framework, the hypotheses proposed in this research are:

1. Poor communities are thought to have a negative relationship with the food security
index. This means that if the number of poor people increases, the food security index
decreases.
2. Food inflation is thought to be negatively related to the food security index. This means
that if food inflation increases, the food security index decreases.
3. Per capita rice consumption is estimated to be positively related to the food security
index. This means that if per capita rice consumption increases, the food security index
will increase.
4. Insufficient food consumption is estimated to be negatively related to the food security
index. This means that if insufficient food consumption increases, the food security
index decreases.
5. Food insecurity is thought to be negatively related to the food security index. This
means that if food insecurity increases, the food security index decreases.

Figure 1. Conceptual Framework

Poor Population

Food Inflation

Per Capita Rice

Food Security
Consumption
Index

Insufficient
consumption

Food Insecurity

Method
This research uses a quantitative research approach method that is designed descriptively
and externally. The data presentation method is dominated by numbers and the data
analysis used is statistical in nature with the aim of testing hypotheses (Subagyo, 2020).
Descriptive design is used to provide an overview of the development of food security
variables. Meanwhile, explanatory design is used to present data statistically through
econometric testing. The description of strengthening food security is proxied by the food
security index. Meanwhile, to see the sustainable food sector, it is proxied by the

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percentage of poor people, food inflation, rice consumption per capita, inadequate food
consumption (PoU), and food insecurity.

The type of data used is secondary data with data sources obtained from the Central
Statistics Agency and the Food Security Agency. The secondary data used is panel data
from cross sections from 10 provinces on the island of Sumatra and time series data for
2018-2022.

Table 1. Operational Definition of Variables

Variable Draft Unit Source
Meeting the food needs of
the community both in
(Food Security
Food Security (Y) terms of availability, Index
Agency, 2023)
affordability and utilization
of food
Population living below the
Poor Population poverty line based on (Food Security
Soul
(X1) monthly per capita Agency, 2023)
expenditure
The percentage change in
the price of a standard food
basket from month to (Food Security
Food Inflation (X2) Percent
month calculated from the Agency, 2023)
national Consumer Price
Index
Average consumption of rice
Rice Consumption (Food Security
is based on per person per Kg/Capita/Year
Per Capita (X3) Agency, 2023)
year
Consumption of food that is
less than energy
Insufficient Food (Food Security
requirements in the Percent
Consumption (X4) Agency, 2023)
categories very low, low,
medium, high, very high
The food insecurity score is
based on the food insecurity
(Food Security
Food Insecurity (X5) experience scale with mild, Number Scale
Agency, 2023)
moderate and severe food
insecurity scores

This research data analysis uses panel data analysis (Widarjono, 2018). Panel data is a
combination of time series data and cross section data . In other words, panel data is the
same units observed over a certain period of time. In general, panel data is characterized by
a small time period T (t=1, 2, …, T) and a large number N individuals (i=1, 2, …, N).
However, this does not rule out the opposite possibility, namely that panel data consists of
a large time period and a small number of individuals. Three approaches to using this panel
data, namely:

1. Common Effects Model

Common effect combines time series data and cross section data in pool form, and the
estimation technique uses the pooled less squares approach. The regression equation in
the common effect model can be written as follows:

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yit = α + βXit + εit, for i = 1,… ,N and t = 1,…,T (1)

2. Fixed Effects Model

Fixed Effect assumes that differences between individuals can be accommodated
through differences in intercepts. This model is based on differences in intercepts
between individuals, but the intercepts are the same over time (time invariant). The
FEM model can be formulated as follows.
yit = αi + β1X1it + βnXnit + εit (2)
Where
αi = α + µi; 𝑖 = 1,2, … ,N (3)

3. Random Effects Model

Random Effect assumes that each individual has a different intercept which is a random
or stochastic variable. The regression equation can be written as follows:
yit = αi + β′Xit + wit (4)
With
wit = µi + εit (5)

Panel The panel data regression model selection is used to determine the most appropriate
panel data regression estimation technique, therefore three types of tests are carried out,
namely the first, the F statistical test is used to choose between an OLS model without
dummy variables (Common Effects) or Fixed Effects. Second, the Lagrange Multiplier
(LM) test is used to select a model between Common Effect and Random Effect. Third, to
choose a model between the Fixed Effect or Random Effect model, the Hausman test is
used. Equality Which obtained from A estimate Can operated in one sense statistics If
fulfil presumption classic It is fulfil free multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity,
autocorrelation, as good as distributed in one sense normal.

Hypothesis testing for significance testing uses the F statistical test (simultaneous test) and
the t statistical test (partial test). Meanwhile, the coefficient of determination (goodness of
fit) test is carried out to determine how large a percentage of the independent variable is
able to explain variations in the dependent variable. Panel data testing in this research uses
the Eviews 10 software application.

Findings
Descriptive Analysis Results

To measure the level of food security in a region and its supporting factors, an assessment
system was developed in the form of IKP which refers to the definition of food security
and the subsystems that make up the food security system. The ninth indicator used in
preparing the IKP is a derivative of three aspects of food security, namely availability,
affordability and utilization of food. In relation to this research, the three aspects of food
security are proxied by the food security index. Meanwhile, to see the sustainable food
sector, it is proxied by the percentage of poor people, food inflation, rice consumption per
capita, food consumption for the poor (PoU), and food insecurity. Judging from the
development of the Food Security Index, it reflects 4 provinces with IKP >70 percent,
namely Lampung Province, West Sumatra, North Sumatra and Jambi.

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Table 2. Descriptive Statistics

Variable
Province
PP FI RCP PoU FIES FSI
15.25 1.89 101.34 8.91 5.58 69.22
Aceh
(0.4923) (1.3964) (1.7763) (1.4787) (1.3126) (2.3909)
North 8.85 1.82 100.30 6.47 6.98 70.51
Sumatra (0.2990) (2.2473) (1.8927) (1.4374) (0.9811) (1.9464)
West 6.40 1.10 100.60 5.90 6.00 77.50
Sumatra (0.2994) (1.1325) (2.0701) (0.8953) (0.8095) (2.3386)
7.04 0.86 88.06 10.57 6.07 64.68
Riau
(0.2482) (1.4851) (1.3456) (2.6757) (1.5225) (2.4279)
7.76 1.39 89.87 9.90 4.79 70.90
Jambi
(0.2303) (1.2320) (1.4472) (1.3201) (0.9196) (2.4228)
South 12.58 1.09 93.52 8.77 6.27 69.07
Sumatra (0.3878) (0.9457) (1.2984) (1.6674) (1.5489) (0.6281)
15.11 0.44 100.45 8.88 5.49 68.23
Bengkulu
(0.3063) (0.3485) (1.8420) (1.6319) (1.7479) (3.7644)
12.46 1.86 89.58 11.94 6.82 75.89
Lampung
(0.5745) (1.7374) (1.1008) (1.7482) (0.8503) (3.0733)
Kep. Bangka 4.75 1.66 86.97 10.70 3.12 66.90
Belitung (0.3270) (1.5707) (1.6756) (2.7675) (0.6341) (7.4310)
6.08 1.41 83.57 6.68 5.96 61.57
Kep. Riau
(0.1577) (1.7672) (4.2771) (2.8827) (1.3094) (2.3585)
Source: Processed data

Based on the table above, during the 2018-2022 period, the provincial poverty rate on
Sumatra Island, the highest percentage of poor people was in Aceh Province with an
average value of 15.25 percent with a standard deviation of 1.3964. This means that the
poverty rate refers to the number 15.25 and spreads between 15.25 ± 1.3964 , Bengkulu
Province is ranked second highest on the island of Sumatra, the percentage of poor people
in Bengkulu Province also higher than the percentage of poor people nationally
(Indonesia). Meanwhile, the lowest poor population is in the Bangka Belitung Islands
Province at 4.75 percent, while the highest standard deviation is in Lampung Province. To
reduce poverty in rural areas, efforts are needed to create jobs and increase the income of
the poor.

The average food inflation value for Aceh Province was 1.89 percent and the lowest for
Bengkulu Province was 0.44 percent. Food inflation is dominated by consumption of
grains. The increase in food inflation is influenced by harvest conditions, natural
disturbances, or developments in food commodity prices at home and abroad. Judging
from the highest per capita rice consumption is Aceh Province and the lowest is Riau
Islands Province. Per capita rice consumption on the island of Sumatra is higher than
consumption of tubers, corn and soybeans. Considering that rice is one of the staple foods
of the population on the island of Sumatra, rice is the main consumption compared to
tubers, corn and soybeans. Fluctuations in rice consumption on the island of Sumatra show
that the price of rice in each province on the island of Sumatra experiences price
differences and fluctuates so that people's ability or purchasing power is also low and
fluctuates.

The minimum standards used for PoU calculations are adjusted to individual calorie needs
based on gender, age at certain height and weight and activities undertaken. The

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categorization of the PoU percentage is divided into 5 statuses, namely very low if the PoU
is 35 percent. the PoU on Sumatra Island appears to be increasing, namely the provinces of
Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, Jambi, Bengkulu, Bangka Belitung Islands, Riau
Islands have medium status. Meanwhile, the provinces of South Sumatra and Lampung
experienced winter with moderate status. If we look at the percentage of population
according to insufficient food consumption (PoU) status, it can be seen that Lampung
Province has the highest average PoU value, namely 11.94 percent with a standard
deviation of 1.7482 and the lowest is West Sumatra Province at 5.90. percent. The higher
the PoU figure, the higher the population experiencing food shortages.

Furthermore, moderate and severe levels of food insecurity can be measured using the
FIES (Food Insecurity Experianced Scale), namely the level of food insecurity based on the
food insecurity experience scale. The FIES score consists of (1) mild food insecurity or
worry with a score <4, (2) moderate, namely compromise on the quality and type of food
or compromise on food quantity with a score of 4-6 and (3) severe, namely not eating or
being hungry due to lack of money or other resources with a score of 7-8. Based on data,
Sumatra saw a downward trend, which means that the percentage of the population that is
unable to meet its daily energy needs is decreasing, namely in the provinces of Aceh, West
Sumatra, Jambi, South Sumatra, Bengkulu, Bangka Belitung Islands. Meanwhile, the
provinces of North Sumatra, Riau, Lampung, Riau Islands experienced fluctuating FIES
numbers. The highest average FIES figure is West Sumatra Province at 6.98 percent with a
scale score close to severe. Meanwhile, the lowest average FIES score was in the Bangka
Belitung Islands province at 3.12 percent with a score on the food insecurity scale of light
or concern.

Panel Data Regression Results

Selection of the appropriate model

1. Chow Test (CEM or FEM Model Selection)

Table 3. Chow Test Results

Effects Test Statistic d.f. Prob.
Cross-section F 8.232746 (9,35) 0.0000
Cross-section Chi-square 56.843420 9 0.0000
Source: Processed data

Cross-section F is 0.0000, which means the p-value is smaller than =5% (0.05), so the
conclusion from the Chow Test is that the Fixed Effect Model approach is better than the
Common Effect Model.

2. Hausman Test (FEM or REM Model Selection)

Table 4. Hausman Test Results

Test Summary Chi-Sq. Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob.
Cross-section random 3.670190 5 0.5978
Source: Processed data

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The Hausman test results obtained a value of Prob. The Random Cross Section of 0.5978
is greater than =5% (0.05) so the best model for sorting is the Fixed Effect Model.

Classic Assumption Test Results

Based on the results of the suitability test, namely the Fixed Effect Model, the results of the
classical assumption test are as follows.

1) Multicollinearity Test Results

Table 5. Multicollinearity Test Results

FSI PP FI RCP POU FIES
FSI 1,000,000 0.149436 0.323993 0.356230 0.155371 0.016891
PP 0.149436 1,000,000 -0.069286 0.540587 0.115094 0.269961
FI 0.323993 -0.069286 1,000,000 -0.138186 0.269437 -0.331960
RCP 0.356230 0.540587 -0.138186 1,000,000 -0.405112 0.258477
POU 0.155371 0.115094 0.269437 -0.405112 1,000,000 -0.265460
FIES 0.016891 0.269961 -0.331960 0.258477 -0.265460 1,000,000
Source: Processed data

The value between independent variables is below 0.85 so that the data in this study does
not have multicollinearity problems.

2) Normality Test Results

Figure 2. Normality Test Results

12
Series: Standardized Residuals
10 Sample 2018 2022
Observations 50
8
Mean 1.24e-16
Median 0.225495
6
Maximum 4.671898
Minimum -7.939805
4
Std. Dev. 2.442111
Skewness -0.632783
2 Kurtosis 4.091568

0 Jarque-Bera 5.819116
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Probability 0.054500

Source: Processed data

Number of observations (n = 50 and k = 5), obtained degrees of freedom (df) = 45, and
used = 5%. The Jarque Bera value is 5.819116 with a probability of 0.054500. It can be
concluded that the data is normally distributed.

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3) Autocorrelation Test Results

Table 6. Autocorrelation Test Results

Durbin-
Model Watson N K dL du 4-dL 4-du Conclusion
Statistics
No Positive
IKP 2.472521 50 5 1,335 1,771 2,665 2,229
Autocorrelation
Source: Processed data

Models that are more than 𝑑u or symbolized by 𝑑 > 𝑑U. Thus, it is concluded that the food
security index model does not contain positive autocorrelation.

4) Heteroscedasticity Test Results

Table 7. Heteroscedasticity Test Results

Variable Coefficient Prob.
C 11.65647 0.3779
PP 0.246156 0.7234
FI 0.064072 0.7249
RCP -0.033976 0.7740
POU 0.032187 0.7980
FIES -0.054937 0.7831
Source: Processed data

Based on the results of the heteroscedasticity test, it can be seen that all independent
variables have an insignificant influence on the quadratic residual variable of the model. So
it can be concluded that the food security index model is free from heteroscedasticity
problems.

Interpretation of Estimation Models

The model used to estimate the food security index model on Sumatra Island is the Fixed
Effect Model.

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Table 8. Final Estimation Model (FEM)

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistics Prob.
C 52.99213 29.46336 1.798577 0.0807
PP 1.209411 1.615126 0.748803 0.4590
FI 0.877904 0.399537 2.197301 0.0347
RCP 0.019876 0.277060 0.071738 0.9432
POU 0.490093 0.282658 1.733874 0.0917
FIES -0.451416 0.461060 -0.979082 0.3343
Securities Specifications
Fixed cross section (dummy variable)
R-squared 0.800126 Means var depends 69.45000
Adjusted R-squared 0.720176 SD-dependent var 5.462448
SE regression 2.889545 Akaike info criteria 5.203400
The sum of the squares
is located 292.2314 Schwarz criteria 5.777007
Note the possibilities -115.0850 Hannan-Quinn criteria. 5.421833
F-statistics 10.00788 Durbin-Watson Statistics 2.472521
Problem (F-statistics) 0.000000
Source: Processed data

Based on a series of model significance tests that have been carried out, the regression
equation estimation model based on the Fixed Effect Model in this research is:

FSIit = 52.99213 + 1.209411PPit + 0.877904FIit + 0.019876RCPit + 0.490093PoUit –

0.451416FIESit

The conclusion is that at the 95% level, the IBM variable (food inflation) has a significant
effect on the FSI (food security index), while the PP variable (poor population), RCP (rice
consumption per capita), PoU (population according to insufficient food consumption
status), FIES (population with moderate or severe food insecurity, food insecurity
experience scale) does not have a significant effect on FSI (food security index).

The results of the F test obtained an F-statistic value of 10.00788 with a probability value
(F-statistic) of 0.000000 < = 5%, then the variables PP (poor population), FI (food
inflation), RCP (rice consumption per capita), PoU (population according to insufficient
food consumption status), FIES (population with moderate or severe food insecurity, food
insecurity experience scale) together have a significant effect on the FSI (food security
index).

The test results obtained an R-squared value of 0.800126, which means the variables PP
(poor population), FI (food inflation), RCP (rice consumption per capita), PoU (population
according to insufficient food consumption status), FIES (population with insecurity
experience scale medium or heavy food) was able to explain changes in the FSI (food
security index) of 80.01 percent, while the remainder (19.99 percent) was explained by
other variables outside the model.

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The Influence of the Number of Poor Population on the Food Security Index of
Sumatra Island

The regression coefficient for the poor population is 1.209411 with a unidirectional
(positive) relationship, which shows that under ceteris paribus conditions, if the poor
population increases by 1 percent, the average food security index will increase by 1,209
percent. The poor population variable shows a positive sign and is not significant on the
food security index on the island of Sumatra. The results of this research are different from
several previous studies which analyzed the influence of poverty on the food security
index. Research (Wehantouw et al., 2021) using the percentage of poverty using multiple
regression shows that poverty has a negative and insignificant effect on food security,
meaning that an increase in food security will be followed by a reduction in poverty. This
research actually found that the results of the poor population variable showed a positive
and insignificant relationship with the food security index. Referring to the data used in this
research, the number of poor people on Sumatra Island shows a decreasing trend, but not
in the same direction as the food security index which shows an increase from 2018-2022.
Thus, the poor population in 10 provinces on the island of Sumatra has decreased but food
security has increased.

The Effect of Food Inflation on the Sumatra Island Food Security Index

The food inflation regression coefficient is 0.8779041 with a unidirectional (positive)

relationship, which shows that under ceteris paribus conditions, if food inflation increases
by 1 percent, the average food security index will increase by 0.877 percent. The food
inflation variable shows a positive and significant sign on the food security index on the
island of Sumatra. If food inflation increases, the average food security index will increase.
The results of this research are in line with research results (Erokhin & Gao, 2020) that
food inflation has a positive and significant effect on food security. This means that the
increase in food prices actually causes people's access to basic commodities to experience
food insecurity because food availability is difficult to reach, causing risks to food security.
This is different from research (Prabayanti et al., 2022) that shows the price of rice has a
negative and significant effect on food security.

The Influence of Per Capita Rice Consumption on the Food Security Index of
Sumatra Island

The regression coefficient for per capita rice consumption is 0.019876 with a unidirectional
(positive) relationship, which shows that under ceteris paribus conditions, if per capita rice
consumption increases by 1 percent, the average food security index increases by 0.019
percent. The per capita rice consumption variable shows a positive sign and does not have
a significant effect on the food security index on Sumatra Island. If per capita rice
consumption increases, the average food security index will increase. The research results
are supported by research (Tessalonica et al., 2023) and (Wehantouw et al., 2021) suggest
that rice consumption has a positive and significant effect on food security. Apart from
that, (Mahdalena et al., 2015) he said that the availability of rice in North Sumatra Province
is partially influenced by domestic rice prices and rice consumption. Apart from that,
Joseph (2017) said that part of people's consumption habits in general are grains. The more
rice consumed, the better the level of food security. Rice consumption that is too high

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could be a threat if rice production decreases due to extreme weather changes and natural
disasters hitting various rice producing areas.

The Influence of PoU on the Sumatra Island Food Security Index

The PoU regression coefficient is 0.490093 with a positive relationship indicating that
under ceteris paribus conditions, if PoU increases by 1 percent, the average food security
index will increase by 0.490 percent. The PoU variable shows a positive sign and has no
significant effect on the food security index on Sumatra Island. If PoU increases, the
average food security index will increase. (Food Security Agency, 2023) stated that the
percentage of population according to the status of food consumption insufficiency (PoU)
on the island of Sumatra has increased but is still in the medium category, ranging between
5%-19%. PoU calculates food insecurity rates based on calorie intake limits which are
calculated by considering gender, age, height and weight. A condition where a person
regularly consumes food that is less than their energy needs or does not provide enough
energy needed to live a normal, active and healthy life.

The Influence of Food Insecurity on the Sumatra Island Food Security Index

The FIES regression coefficient is 0.451416 with a unidirectional (negative) relationship

which shows that under ceteris paribus conditions, if FIES increases by 1 percent, the
average food security index will decrease by 0.451 percent. The FIES variable shows a
negative sign and has no significant effect on the food security index on Sumatra Island. If
FIES increases, the average food security index will decrease. Sufficient food is a
prerequisite for achieving food security. (Food Security Agency, 2023) stated that an area
said to be food insecure can be measured by the relative large number of poor households
due to economic reasons, the nutritional status of the community as indicated by the
nutritional status of children under five, regional food availability, and food vulnerability.
Conditions of food insecurity can be caused by: (a) lack of economic access for
individuals/households to obtain sufficient food, (b) lack of physical access for
individuals/households to obtain sufficient food, (c) insufficient food for a productive life
for individuals /household and, (d) food supply that is insufficient in terms of quality,
variety, safety and affordability. Food insecurity occurs when each individual is only able to
meet 80% of their daily food and nutritional needs. Furthermore, according to Suryana
(2014), the imbalance in food production between regions causes almost all commodities,
the proportion of food production on the island of Java to be more than 50 percent of
national food production. This inequality will increase the problem of food distribution
efforts and food distribution costs, making it difficult to provide food evenly spatially in all
regions in Indonesia. If infrastructure and food logistics systems between regions are not
built, production disparities between regions will be difficult to overcome.

The implication of this research is that the research has theoretical implications for the
food security index, namely the variable poor population and per capita rice consumption
which are the indicators used in calculating the food security index. Practically, this
research can provide input as a reference in making policies related to food security on the
island of Sumatra.

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Conclusion

Based on the research results, food sector indicators have a positive and negative effect on
food security on the island of Sumatra. The decline in the number of poor people on the
island of Sumatra is an opportunity to increase food security, but you need to be careful
because several provinces are still above 10 percent. Likewise, food inflation needs to be
watched out for because food prices tend to increase every year. If there is an increase in
food prices, the food security index will decrease. However, on the contrary, food inflation
on the island of Sumatra is relatively stable, which can influence the increase in the food
security index. Per capita rice consumption is still the main consumption of the population
of Sumatra Island, because rice is still a basic need so rice food stocks need to be increased.
Insufficient food consumption and food insecurity greatly influence the decline in the food
security index. If these two indicators increase, the food security index will decrease.

These five food sector variables are the challenges for the future of Sumatra Island in
achieving a sustainable food sector. This means that when there is an increase in the
number of poor people, food inflation, insufficient food consumption, then food insecurity
will increase so that the government's efforts to achieve superior and strategic food security
are not achieved.

Suggestions that can be proposed and implemented by policy makers to strengthen food
security through a sustainable food sector are as follows: (i) The Ministry of Agriculture, in
collaboration with the Food Security Agency, needs to encourage the development of food
security both in terms of food availability, food affordability and food utilization. (ii) The
regional government of each province needs to design appropriate food policies and
management in accordance with empirical conditions in the field. (iii) Other efforts made
by local governments to realize strong food security are through aspects of climate
suitability, suitability of regional topography, development of farmers human resources
(HR), use of technology, existing food maps, on-farm and off-farm expansion plans in the
future. Future, as well as regional policy support for self-sufficiency. The limitations of this
research are that it does not cover food security index variables such as food imports, food
exports, food reserves and other variables that are relevant to the food security index. So it
is hoped that future researchers will consider these variables as factors that influence the
food security index and add broader research observations.

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