Paul R. Ehrlich: Population Studies Pioneer
Paul R. Ehrlich: Population Studies Pioneer
Ehrlich
Paul Ralph Ehrlich (born May 29, 1932) is an
American biologist known for his predictions and Paul R. Ehrlich
warnings about the consequences of population
growth, including famine and resource
depletion. [2][3][4][5] Ehrlich is the Bing Professor
Emeritus of Population Studies of the Department of
Biology of Stanford University.
Overpopulation debate
A lecture that Ehrlich gave on the topic of overpopulation at the Commonwealth Club of California was
broadcast by radio in April 1967.[22] The success of the lecture caused further publicity, and the
suggestion from David Brower the executive director of the environmentalist Sierra Club, and Ian
Ballantine of Ballantine Books to write a book concerning the topic. Ehrlich and his wife, Anne H.
Ehrlich, collaborated on the book, The Population Bomb, but the publisher insisted that a single author be
credited; only Paul's name appears as an author.[23]
Although Ehrlich was not the first to warn about
population issues — concern had been widespread
during the 1950s and 1960s — his charismatic and
media-savvy methods helped publicize the topic.[24]
The Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson had
Ehrlich on as a guest more than twenty times, with
one interview lasting an hour.[25][26]
Writings
Graph showing changes in global human
population since 10,000 BC
The Population Bomb (1968)
The original edition of The Population Bomb began with the
statement:
Ehrlich has proposed different solutions to the problem of overpopulation. In The Population Bomb he
wrote, "We must have population control at home, hopefully through a system of incentives and penalties,
but by compulsion if voluntary methods fail. We must use our political power to push other countries into
programs which combine agricultural development and population control."[27] Voluntary measures he
has endorsed include the easiest possible availability of birth control and abortion.
Decades later, Ehrlich's continued prominence and the failure of the book's predictions to materialize led
to renewed scrutiny and criticism. The New York Times said his "apocalyptic predictions fell as flat as
ancient theories about the shape of the Earth".[2]
Science author Charles C. Mann wrote that the book's predictions "fueled an anti-population-growth
crusade that led to human rights abuses around the world", including coercive population control policies
and even forced sterilizations.[28] Ehrlich's pointed criticism of India in particular (for instance,
emphasizing the overpopulation of Delhi rather than Paris, which had nearly triple Delhi's population at
the time of writing) has been criticized for focusing much more on "feelings" than on actual data.[28]
Neither of the Ehrlichs have ever publicly renounced predictions, instead insisting that they were largely
correct, despite the errors noted by many experts.[29]
Many accepted the premise of a looming population problem, with the New York Times writing that "it is
not merely prudent but imperative that we confront population issues, and do so now".[31]
Notwithstanding this wide agreement, the Ehrlichs were criticized for an "alarmist" tone.[32] The book
was also criticised for its approach to family planning, arguing against increased family planning efforts
aimed at empowering individuals and families.[33] The Ehrlichs were accused of advocating the
curtailment of reproductive freedoms and giving the state a larger role in such decisions, while leaving
ambiguous "just how authoritarian a solution they are willing to endorse."[32]
Subsequent attention to the book scrutinized its descriptions of an unfolding overpopulation catastrophe.
The book's contention that global food production had already peaked proved to be incorrect.[34]
Similarly, the prediction that India faced catastrophic food shortage in the 1990s failed to materialize.[34]
After 2000
During a 2004 interview, Ehrlich answered questions about the
predictions he made in The Population Bomb. He acknowledged
that some of what he had published had not occurred, but stated
that he felt "little embarrassment" and reaffirmed his basic opinion
that overpopulation is a major problem. He noted that, "Fifty-eight
academies of science said that same thing in 1994, as did the
world scientists' warning to humanity in the same year. My view
has become depressingly mainline!"[11] Ehrlich also asserted that
600 million people were very hungry while billions were under-
nourished, and falsely insisted that his predictions about disease
and climate change were essentially correct.[11] Retrospectively,
Ehrlich said that The Population Bomb, which predicted a
Ehrlich speaking in 2008
widespread famine by 1985 that never materialized, was actually
"way too optimistic".[22][23]
In a 2008 discussion hosted by the website Salon, Paul Ehrlich was more critical of the United States
specifically, claiming that it should control its population and consumption as an example to the rest of
the world. He still professed a belief that governments should discourage people from having more than
two children, suggesting, for example, a higher tax rate for larger families.[36]
In 2011, as the world's population passed the seven billion mark, Ehrlich argued that the next two billion
people on Earth would cause more damage than the previous two billion, as humans now increasingly
would have to resort to using more marginal and environmentally damaging resources.[37] As of 2013,
Ehrlich continued to perform policy research concerning population and resource issues, with an
emphasis upon endangered species, cultural evolution, environmental ethics, and the preservation of
genetic resources. Along with Dr. Gretchen Daily, he performed work in countryside biogeography; that
is, the study of making human-disturbed areas hospitable to biodiversity. His research group at Stanford
University examined extensive natural populations of the Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha
bayensis).[38]
The population-related disaster that Ehrlich predicted has failed to materialize, including the "hundreds of
millions" of starvation deaths in the 1970s and the tens of millions of deaths in the United States in the
1970s and 1980s. Slowing of population growth rates and new food production technologies have
increased the food supply faster than the population.[2] Nonetheless, Ehrlich continues to stand by his
general thesis that the human population is too large, posing a direct threat to human survival and the
environment of the planet. Indeed, he states that if he were to write the book today, "My language would
be even more apocalyptic."[2] In 2018, he emphasized his view that the optimum population size is
between 1.5 and 2 billion people.[39] In 2022, he was a contributor to the "Scientists' warning on
population," published by Science of the Total Environment, which estimated that a sustainable
population would be between 2 and 4 billion people.[40]
Reception
During the 1960s and 70s when Ehrlich made his most alarming warnings, there was a widespread belief
among experts that population growth presented an extremely serious threat to the future of human
civilization, although differences existed regarding the severity of the situation, and how to decrease
it.[24][41]
In the decades since, critics have disputed Ehrlich's main thesis about overpopulation and its effects on
the environment and human society, and his solutions, as well as his specific predictions made since the
late 1960s.
Barry Commoner has criticized Ehrlich's 1970 statement that "When you reach a point where you realize
further efforts will be futile, you may as well look after yourself and your friends and enjoy what little
time you have left. That point for me is 1972."[46] Gardner has criticized Ehrlich for endorsing the
strategies proposed by William and Paul Paddock in their book Famine 1975!. They had proposed a
system of "triage" that would end food aid to "hopeless" countries such as India and Egypt. In Population
Bomb, Ehrlich suggests that "there is no rational choice except to adopt some form of the Paddocks'
strategy as far as food distribution is concerned." Had this strategy been implemented for countries such
as India and Egypt, which were reliant on food aid at that time, they would almost certainly have suffered
famines.[24] Instead, both Egypt and India have greatly increased their food production and now feed
much larger populations without reliance on food aid.[44]
Left-wing critics
Another group of critics, generally of the political left, argues that Ehrlich emphasizes overpopulation too
much as a problem in itself instead of distribution of resources.[23] Barry Commoner argued that Ehrlich
emphasized overpopulation too much as the source of environmental problems, and that his proposed
solutions were politically unacceptable because of the coercion that they implied, and because they would
cost poor people disproportionately. He argued that technological, and above all social development
would result in a natural decrease of both population growth and environmental damage.[47] Ehrlich
denies any type of racism, and has argued that if his policy ideas were implemented properly they would
not be repressive.[48]
In a 2018 interview with The Guardian, Ehrlich, while still proud of The Population Bomb for starting a
worldwide debate on the issues of population, acknowledged weaknesses of the book including not
placing enough emphasis on overconsumption and inequality, and countering accusations of racism. He
argues "too many rich people in the world is a major threat to the human future, and cultural and genetic
diversity are great human resources." He advocated for an "unprecedented redistribution of wealth" in
order to mitigate the problem of overconsumption of resources by the world's wealthy, but said "the rich
who now run the global system — that hold the annual 'world destroyer' meetings in Davos — are
unlikely to let it happen."[39]
Ehrlich and his colleague Rodolfo Dirzo argued in a 2022 perspective paper for the need to reduce
fertility rates among "the overconsuming wealthy and middle classes", and wasteful consumption in
general, with the ultimate goal being to reduce "the scale of the human enterprise" in order to mitigate the
contemporary extinction crisis.[49]
Simon–Ehrlich wager
The economist Julian Simon argued in 1980 that overpopulation is not a problem as such and that
humanity will adapt to changing conditions. Simon argued that eventually human creativity will improve
living standards, and that most resources were replaceable.[50] Simon stated that over hundreds of years,
the prices of virtually all commodities had decreased significantly and persistently.[51] Ehrlich termed
Simon the proponent of a "space-age cargo cult" of economists convinced that human creativity and
ingenuity would create substitutes for scarce resources and reasserted the idea that population growth was
outstripping the Earth's supplies of food, fresh water and minerals.[7] This exchange resulted in the
Simon–Ehrlich wager, a bet about the trend of prices for resources during a ten-year period that was made
with Simon in 1980.[7] Ehrlich was allowed to choose ten commodities that he predicted would become
scarce and thus increase in price. Ehrlich chose mostly metals, and lost the bet, as their average price
decreased by about 30% in the next 10 years. Simon and Ehrlich could not agree about the terms of a
second bet.
Other activities
Ehrlich was one of the initiators of the group Zero Population Growth (renamed Population Connection)
in 1968, along with Richard Bowers and Charles Lee Remington.[57] In 1971, Ehrlich was elected to the
Common Cause National Governing Board. He and his wife Anne were part of the board of advisers of
the Federation for American Immigration Reform until 2003. He is currently a patron of Population
Matters, (formerly known as the Optimum Population Trust).[58]
Consistent with his concern about the impact of pollution and in response to a doctoral dissertation by his
student Edward Goth III, Ehrlich wrote in 1977 that, "Fluorides have been shown to concentrate in food
chains, and evidence suggesting a potential for significant ecological effects is accumulating."[59]
Ehrlich has spoken at conferences in Israel on the issue of desertification. He has argued "true Zionists
should have small families".[60]
Personal life
Ehrlich has been married to Anne H. Ehrlich (née Howland) since December 1954; they have one
daughter, Lisa Marie.[61] He announced that he had had a vasectomy in 1963 after his child's birth.[62]
Works
Books
How to Know the Butterflies (1960)
Process of Evolution (1963)
Butterflies and Plants: A Study in Coevolution (1964)
The Population Bomb (1968, revised 1971, updated 1978, re-issued 1988, 1998, 2008 and
2018)
Population, Resources, Environments: Issues in Human Ecology (1970)
How to Be a Survivor (1971)
Man and the Ecosphere: Readings from Scientific American (1971)
Population, Resources, Environments: Issues in Human Ecology Second Edition (1972)
Human Ecology: Problems and Solutions (1973)
Introductory Biology (1973)
The End of Affluence (1975)
Biology and Society (1976)
Ecoscience: Population, Resources, Environment (1978)
The Race Bomb (1978)
Extinction (1981)
The Golden Door: International Migration, Mexico, and the United States (1981)
The Cold and the Dark: The World after Nuclear War (1984, with Carl Sagan, Donald
Kennedy, and Walter Orr Roberts)
The Machinery of Nature: The Living World Around Us and How it Works (1986)
Earth (1987, co-authored with Anne Ehrlich)
Science of Ecology (1987, with Joan Roughgarden)
The Cassandra Conference: Resources and the Human Predicament (1988)
The Birder's Handbook: A field Guide to the Natural History of North American Birds (1988,
with David S. Dobkin and Darryl Wheye)
New World, New Mind: Moving Towards Conscious Evolution (1988, co-authored with
Robert E. Ornstein)[65]
The Population Explosion (1990, with Anne Ehrlich)
Healing the Planet: Strategies for Resolving the Environmental Crisis (1991, co-authored
with Anne Ehrlich)
Birds in Jeopardy: The Imperiled and Extinct Birds of the United States and Canada,
Including Hawaii and Puerto Rico (1992, with David S. Dobkin and Darryl Wheye)
The Stork and the Plow : The Equity Answer to the Human Dilemma (1995, with Anne
Ehrlich and Gretchen C. Daily)
A World of Wounds: Ecologists and the Human Dilemma (1997)
Betrayal of Science and Reason: How Anti-Environment Rhetoric Threatens Our Future
(1998, with Anne Ehrlich)
Wild Solutions: How Biodiversity is Money in the Bank (2001, with Andrew Beattie)
Human Natures: Genes, Cultures, and the Human Prospect (2002)
One With Nineveh: Politics, Consumption, and the Human Future (2004, with Anne Ehrlich)
On the Wings of Checkerspots: A Model System for Population Biology (2004, edited
volume, co-edited with Ilkka Hanski)
The Dominant Animal: Human Evolution and the Environment (2008, with Anne Ehrlich)
Humanity on a Tightrope: Thoughts on Empathy, Family, and Big Changes for a Viable
Future (2010, with Robert E. Ornstein)
Conservation Biology for All (2010, edited volume, co-edited with Navjot S. Sodhi)
Hope on Earth: A Conversation (2014, co-authored with Michael Charles Tobias) ISBN 978-
0-226-11368-5
Killing the Koala and Poisoning the Prairie: Australia, America and the Environment (2015,
co-authored with Corey J. A. Bradshaw)
The Annihilation of Nature: Human Extinction of Birds and Mammals (2015, with Anne
Ehrlich and Gerardo Ceballos)[66]
Jaws: The Story of a Hidden Epidemic (2018, with Sandra Kahn) ISBN 978-1503604131
Papers
Ehrlich, P. R. (2010). "The MAHB, the Culture Gap, and Some Really Inconvenient Truths"
([Link] PLOS Biology. 8 (4): e1000330.
doi:10.1371/[Link].1000330 ([Link]
PMC 2850377 ([Link] PMID 20386722
([Link]
Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Barnosky, Anthony D.; García, Andrés; Pringle, Robert
M.; Palmer, Todd M. (2015). "Accelerated modern human–induced species losses: Entering
the sixth mass extinction" ([Link]
Science Advances. 1 (5): e1400253. Bibcode:2015SciA....1E0253C ([Link]
[Link]/abs/2015SciA....1E0253C). doi:10.1126/sciadv.1400253 ([Link]
ciadv.1400253). PMC 4640606 ([Link]
PMID 26601195 ([Link]
Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Dirzo, Rodolfo (23 May 2017). "Biological annihilation
via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines"
([Link] PNAS. 114 (30): E6089–E6096.
Bibcode:2017PNAS..114E6089C ([Link]
C). doi:10.1073/pnas.1704949114 ([Link]
PMC 5544311 ([Link] PMID 28696295
([Link]
Dirzo, Rodolfo; Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R. (2022). "Circling the drain: the extinction
crisis and the future of humanity" ([Link]
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. 377 (1857). doi:10.1098/rstb.2021.0378
([Link] PMC 9237743 ([Link]
mc/articles/PMC9237743). PMID 35757873 ([Link]
See also
Demography
Population Connection (formerly Zero Population Growth), a non-profit founded by Ehrlich
Malthusianism
Moral panic
Netherlands fallacy
Escape and radiate coevolution
Simon–Ehrlich wager
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48. Paul Ehrlich; Shirley Feldman (1978). The Race Bomb. Ballantine Books.
49. Dirzo, Rodolfo; Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R. (2022). "Circling the drain: the extinction
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mc/articles/PMC9237743). PMID 35757873 ([Link]
S2CID 250055843 ([Link] "It is clear that
only a giant change in human culture can significantly limit the extinction crisis. Humanity
must face the need to reduce birth rates further, especially among the overconsuming
wealthy and middle classes. In addition, a reduction of wasteful consumption will be
necessary, accompanied by a transition away from environmentally malign technological
choices such as private automobiles, plastic everything, and treating billionaires to space
tourism. Otherwise growthmania will win; the human enterprise will not undergo the needed
shrinkage, but will continue to expand, destroying most of biodiversity and further wrecking
the life-support systems of humanity until global civilization collapses"
50. Simon, JL (June 27, 1980). "Resources, Population, Environment: An Oversupply of False
Bad News". Science. 208 (4451): 1431–1437. Bibcode:1980Sci...208.1431S ([Link]
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1126%2Fscience.7384784). JSTOR 1684670 ([Link]
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51. Bailey, Ronald (2015). The End of Doom ([Link]
bail/page/38). St. Martin's Press. pp. 38, 59 ([Link]
00bail/page/38). ISBN 978-1-250-05767-9. "...nearly all resources in the past were much
more expensive than they are today"
52. Paul Ehrlich; Anne Ehrlich (2004). One with Nineveh: Politics, consumption, and the human
future. Island Press.
53. Patt Morrison (12 February 2011). "Paul R. Ehrlich: Saving Earth" ([Link]
opinion/[Link]). Los Angeles Times.
Retrieved 4 March 2013. "Consumption is equally important. I'd think the biggest problem is
figuring out what to do on consumption. We don't have any consumption condoms."
54. Luiggi, Cristina (1 December 2010). "Still Ticking" ([Link]
w/articleNo/29380/title/Still-Ticking/). The Scientist. LabX Media Group. Retrieved 4 March
2013.
55. Ehrlich, Paul R.; Ehrlich, Anne H. (March 7, 2013). "Can a collapse of global civilization be
avoided?" ([Link] Proceedings of the
Royal Society. 280 (1754): 20122845. doi:10.1098/rspb.2012.2845 ([Link]
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335). PMID 23303549 ([Link] Also see: Comment (ht
tp://[Link]/content/280/1767/20131193#ref-1) by Prof. Michael
Kelly, disagreeing with the paper by Ehrlich and Ehrlich; and response ([Link]
[Link]/content/280/1767/20131373) by the authors.
56. Fraser, Colin (3 February 2008). "Green revolution could still blow up in our face" ([Link]
[Link]/articles/2008/02/02/[Link]). The Age. Fairfax Media.
Retrieved 4 March 2013.
57. Dowbiggin 2008, p. 155.
58. "Population Matters Patron" ([Link]
[Link]/about/people/patrons/). [Link]. Archived from the original
([Link] on 2014-06-25.
59. Zelko F. Optimizing nature: Invoking the "natural" in the struggle over water fluoridation.
History of Science. 2018; 1–22.
60. Ahituv, Netta (December 6, 2012). " 'True Zionists should have small families' suggests Paul
Ehrlich, 40 years after writing 'The Population Bomb' " ([Link]
gazine/true-zionists-should-have-small-families-suggests-paul-ehrlich-40-years-after-writing-
[Link]-1.483039). Haaretz.
61. "Whitney R. Harris World Ecology Center: Dr. Paul Ehrlich" ([Link]
10720092618/[Link] [Link]. Archived from
the original ([Link] on 2011-07-20. Retrieved
June 21, 2010.
62. Dowbiggin 2008, p. 154, 168.
63. "The Heinz Awards, Paul and Anne Ehrlich profile" ([Link]
aul_anne_ehrlich). [Link]. Retrieved 2012-05-20.
64. "2009. Paul R. Ehrlich" ([Link]
h). Departament de la Presidència.
65. "New World New Mind — Pdf Edition" ([Link]
[Link]/NWNM/[Link]). [Link]. Archived from the original ([Link]
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66. Heneghan, Liam (2016). "Review of The Annihilation of Nature: Human Extinction of Birds
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[Link]) (PDF). Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 31 (8): 583–584.
doi:10.1016/[Link].2016.06.002 ([Link]
Cited books
Dowbiggin, Ian Robert (2008). The Sterilization Movement and Global Fertility in the
Twentieth Century ([Link] Oxford University
Press. ISBN 9780195188585.
Further reading
Robertson, Thomas. (2012) The Malthusian Moment: Global Population Growth and the
Birth of American Environmentalism, Rutgers University Press: New Brunswick, New Jersey.
ISBN 0813552729.
External links
Paul R. Ehrlich's faculty web page at Stanford University ([Link]
B/Staff/[Link])
Biographical page at the International Center for Tropical Ecology, University of Missouri, St.
Louis ([Link]
Paul R. Ehrlich ([Link] at IMDb
"The Population Bomb Revisited" ([Link]
b-Revisited), Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development, 2009
Several online Paul Ehrlich interviews ([Link]
[Link]/people/paul_ehrlich)
"Plowboy Interview" of Paul Ehrlich, 1974 ([Link]
w_1974.htm) from Mother Earth News
Paul R. Ehrlich and the prophets of doom ([Link]
[Link]) A look at Ehrlich's treatment of exponential growth.
Paul Ehrlich, a prophet of global population doom who is gloomier than ever ([Link]
[Link]/environment/2011/oct/23/paul-ehrlich-global-collapse-warning). The
Guardian. October 2011.
Paul R. Ehrlich Papers ([Link] (finding aid
to an archival collection at Stanford University's University Archives, most not available
online)