COVID-19: THE NIGRIAN

SITUATION
COVID-19: ORIGIN AND SPREAD TO NIGERIA
In December 2019, the outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2, previously known as
2019-nCoV) was linked to a large Huanan seafood and live animal market in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. The
epidemic was declared a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) on 30th January 2020 by the
World Health Organization (WHO). WHO officially named the acute respiratory disease as coronavirus disease
2019 (abbreviated “Covid-19”).) and the Coronavirus Study Group (CSG) of the International Committee proposed
to name the new coronavirus as SARS-CoV-2, both issued on 11 February 2020. The first known patient of
Coronavirus started experiencing symptoms in Wuhan, China on 1 December 2019. Since then, there have been over
800,000 reported cases around the world. As of 1 March 2020, a total of 87,137 confirmed cases globally,
79,968 confirmed in China and 7169 outside of China, with 2977 deaths (3.4%) had been reported by WHO. The
clinical symptoms of COVID-19 patients include fever, cough, fatigue and a small population of patients
appeared gastrointestinal infection symptoms. Increasing evidence showed sustained human-to-human
transmission, along with many exported cases across the globe. The elderly and people with underlying diseases
are susceptible to infection and prone to serious outcomes, which may be associated with acute respiratory
distress syndrome (ARDS) and cytokine storm. Currently, there are few specific antiviral strategies, but
several potent candidates of antivirals and repurposed drugs are under urgent investigation. As of 1 March
2020, a total of 79,968 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in mainland China including 2873 deaths. Studies
estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 to be around 2.2, or even more (range from 1.4 to
6.5), and familial clusters of pneumonia outbreaks add to evidence of the epidemic COVID-19 steadily growing
by human-to-human transmission. The coronavirus entered Nigeria through an infected Italian citizen who worked
in Lagos and had returned from a visit to Milan days earlier. He had come in contact with a Nigerian citizen
who was subsequently infected with the coronavirus. The coronavirus then spread to other citizens in Lagos and
to other parts of the country.

THE CAPACITY INADEQUACY OF THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT IN CONTAINING THE PANDEMIC

The WHO’s emergency declaration was significantly driven by fears of the virus spreading to countries with
weak health systems, particularly in Africa, which has widespread ties to China. Because of this risk, the WHO
identified 13 African countries (Algeria, Angola, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia,
Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia) as high priorities for support
based on volume of travel from China. The coronavirus outbreak in Nigeria emphasized on a basic level, the
need to have a strong public health infrastructure or institutions that effective in responding to pandemics
and existing social welfare programs that would have catered for poor and vulnerable citizens who would be
affected by the crisis. Unfortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic occurrence in Nigeria is a potentially
catastrophic event for millions of Nigerians who are already hanging by a thread and millions more who can
only eat if they earn a wage. Nigeria does not have a national social welfare program that offers assistance
to all individuals and families in need such as health care assistance, food stamps, unemployment
compensation, disaster relief and educational assistance.

The failings in Nigeria’s public health sector made it difficult for Nigeria to cope with the fast-spreading
Covid-19 disease during the outbreak. The public health sector in Nigeria has poor infrastructure such as poor
emergency services, few ambulance services, ineffective national health insurance systems, insufficient
primary health care facilities, and these problems in the public health sector have often been linked to the
high maternal and infant mortality rates in the country (Muhammad et al, 2017). Compared to developed
countries, the private healthcare sector in Nigeria is very small because of the limited funding for private
health insurance. Also, the majority of Nigeria’s healthcare spending is still dominated by out-of-pocket
expenditure which account for 70% of total health expenditure8, which suggest that most Nigerians either do
not rely or trust the health insurance systems in the country or they are unaware of the availability of
health insurance. Despite the introduction of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) in 2004, the
population covered by health insurance in 2019 was about 5 percent of the total population.

The Nigerian pharmaceutical industry also has its own problems. The Nigerian pharmaceutical industry is one of
the largest in West Africa, and accounts for about 60% of the market share in the region. But most of the
active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) used in Nigeria are imported from China, and only 10% of the drugs
used in Nigeria are manufactured locally in the country. The industry is facing many problems such as poor
infrastructural and unreliable utilities, scarcity of skilled workers, poor access to finance, lack of
appropriate government incentives, policy incoherence by the government, poor demand due to robust competition
from Asian companies particularly China, high cost of doing business as a result of imported and expensive
production inputs, regulatory problems, among others. Nigeria has a drug market that is almost unregulated
because the health agencies have difficulty in preventing the importation of illegal drugs and difficulty in
tracking informal drug sellers that operate without a registered license (Fatokun, 2016). It is estimated that
informal drug sellers in the country account for more than 70% of the pharmaceutical market and these informal
agents import substandard and falsified drugs through informal channels. Research shows that 78% of low-
quality medications came from private facilities compared to public facilities9, and most of these private
facilities are unregulated. The unregulated drug market in Nigeria is the major factor responsible for the
circulation of low-quality medicines in the country (Klantschnig and Huang, 2019).
Before the Covid-19 outbreak, there were major social problems in Nigeria which include child abandonment,
armed robbery, homelessness, mental health problems, divorce, and problems of single parenting. These social
problems can only be addressed with serious social welfare policy and program. But, currently, social welfare
activities in Nigeria is under developed, poorly funded and is unavailable to majority of those who need them
(Ahmed et al, 2017). Nigeria does not have a national social welfare program that offers assistance to all
individuals and families in need such as health care assistance, food stamps, unemployment compensation,
disaster relief and educational assistance.

RESPONSE
In response to the Covid-19 outbreak and Pursuant to the powers granted under The Quarantine Act, the
President issued the COVID-19 regulations, to serve as the fulcrum and legal basis for all the proposed
actions that the Federal government intends to put in place to handle the fallout of the Pandemic. Issues
relating to the restriction of movement and government’s welfare programs were specifically addressed in the
regulations. The monetary authority, the Central bank, also issued guidelines in providing various regulatory
and fiscal measures to provide relief to affected households, businesses, regulated financial institutions and
other stakeholders to reduce the adverse economic impact of the Covid-19 outbreak. The health minister, Dr.
Osagie Ehanire issued a notice instructing Nigerians on precautionary measures and warned them not to spread
misinformation.

Movement restriction
The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) set up the Presidential Task Force
on Coronavirus (PTF-COVID19). The PTF-COVID19 and the Nigerian Immigration
Authority announced the following:

1. Visa Suspension: The immediate suspension of Visa on Arrival (VoA)

issuance to travelers from thirteen (13) countries
2. Entry Restriction: An entry restriction order to travelers from these
fifteen (15) countries, effective 21 March 2020
3. Mandatory Self-Isolation: All travelers returning to Nigeria (from the
aforementioned countries (before the restriction) would undergo
supervised isolation for 14 days and be monitored by the Nigeria Centre
for Disease Control (NCDC) and Port Health Services.
4. Closure of Airport: Effective Monday, 23 March 2020, all airports in
Nigeria were closed to international flights.
5. Intra-city/country movement restriction: The FGN announced a restriction
on intra-city/country movement (“Lockdown”). The Lockdown is applicable
in Lagos State and the Federal Capital Territory (Abuja) with effect
from 11 pm, March 30 20201. The Lockdown will become effective in Ogun
State on 3 April 2020.

Legislation
House of Representatives pass Economic Stimulus Bill 2020: The House of
Representatives on March 24, passed the Emergency Economic Stimulus Bill
2020 (The Bill). The Bill is essentially aimed at providing certain reliefs
for individuals and corporate bodies to cushion the adverse effect of the
economic downturn caused by the Pandemic. The Bill seeks to, amongst others,
cater for the general wellbeing of Nigerians as well as provide temporary
relief to companies and individuals to alleviate the adverse financial
consequences of a slowdown in economic activities caused by COVID-19. It is
also aimed at protecting the employment status of Nigerian, providing
stimulus on mortgage repayment as well as eliminating bottlenecks
surrounding the importation of medical equipment and materials

Loan relief and credit

facilities 1. Extension of moratorium on loans: extension of loan moratorium on
principal repayments of all CBN intervention facilities such as
TraderMoni, MarketMoni and FarmerMoni loans are granted a one-year
extension on all principal repayments. New amortization schedules will
be provided for all beneficiaries. This is effective 1 March 2020.
TraderMoni, MarketMoni and FarmerMoni are small scale government loans
which provide petty traders, farmers and small business with access to
capital. The beneficiaries of these government loans, estimated to be
about 2million, are to enjoy the loan repayment holiday of 3 months.
Also, a similar moratorium extension is granted to loan facilities
funded by the Federal Government and disbursed by the Bank of Industry,
Bank of Agriculture and the Nigeria Export-Import Bank respectively.

2. Interest rate reduction - Interest rates on all applicable CBN

intervention facilities are to be reduced from 9% to 5% per annum for 1
year with effect from 1 March 2020.

3. Regulatory forbearance: regulatory forbearance to banks allow banks to

 restructure terms of facilities in affected sectors- temporarily
restructuring the tenor of existing loan within a specific time period.
The CBN has directed all banks, accepting deposits, to consider
temporary and time-limited restructuring of the tenor and loan terms for
businesses and households most affected by the outbreak of COVID-19.
This is particularly applicable to Oil & Gas, Agriculture and
Manufacturing sectors. The above measures taken by the CBN are necessary
and required to address the downward economic trend brought about by the
Pandemic. However, considering Nigeria’s dwindling external foreign
reserves, exacerbated by falling crude oil prices, a delicate balance is
required to ensure the country is still able to fund its budget.

4. Strengthening of the Loan to Deposit ratio policy (i.e. stepped up

enforcement of directive to extend more credit to the private sector);

5. Credit Support for the Healthcare Industry - The CBN has made loans to
support the healthcare industry in meeting the increasing demand for
healthcare services and products during the outbreak through the
facilitating of borrowing conditions for pharmaceutical companies,
hospitals and practitioners. The loan is available only to
pharmaceutical companies intending to expand their drug manufacturing
plants in Nigeria and hospitals or healthcare practitioners who intend
to expand their health facilities to first-class centers or build new
ones.

6. N1 trillion in loans to boost local manufacturing and production across

critical sectors.

7. Creation of a N50 Billion (USD 140 million) targeted credit facility -

This will be administered through the NIRSAL Microfinance Bank for
households, small and medium-sized enterprises that have been
significantly impacted by COVID-19, including but not limited to
hoteliers, airline service providers, health care merchants etc.

fiscal stimulus and welfare

package Policies 1. Cutting planned spending in the 2020 budget : as part of the measures to
respond to the impact of coronavirus on the economy and in response to
the oil price crash, The Federal Government seeks to review and revise
the 2020 national budget of N10.59 trillion (US$28 billion) ad cut the
planned spending in the 2020 budget by about NGN 1.5 trillion (USD 4
billion), including a 20 percent cut to capital expenditure and a 25
percent cut to recurrent expenditure. The new budget was benchmarked at
US$30 per barrel from US$57 per barrel in the previous budget.

2. Suspension of new electricity tariffs: On April 1st, the Nigerian

Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) suspended the payment of the
new electricity tariffs scheduled to commence on April 2nd, citing poor
electricity supply, wide metering gap and the impact of the COVID-19
pandemic.

3. Reduction in Price of PMS: On April 2nd, the Federal Government further

slashed the price of Premium Motor Spirit, PMS to N123.50 per liter,
with effect from April 1, 2020 following the continued downward trend in
oil price.

4. SEC & NSE grants 60-day extension: On March 25, the Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC) and Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) announced
the grant of a 60-day extension to issuers and dealing members for
filing of 2019 full year financial reports, from 30 March 2020 to 29 May
2020.

5. NIS payment waiver for visitors affected by travel ban : On 16 April,

Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS) announced the grant of payment waiver
to visitors / migrants affected by the travel ban and the closure of
international airports. Affected persons are expected to reschedule
their flights and travel within a week of the suspension of the
restriction.

6. Conditional cash transfer scheme - The most vulnerable in the society

would be paid a stipend for two months to enable them meet their basic
needs. In addition, internally displaced persons would be granted two
months’ worth of food rations.

Tax
1. Protecting employees from loss of jobs through Special tax rebate - any
Nigerian company which maintains the same employee status without
retrenching any staff from 1 March to 31 December 2020, would be
entitled to a 50% income tax rebate of the actual amount due, or paid as
 pay as you earn (PAYE) tax. It is instructive to note that this relief
still applies where an employee dies from natural causes, voluntarily
resigns (or has indicated intention to resign before 1 March 2020) or
where the employee breaches the provisions of the Labour Act, 2004.

2. Business Continuity Plan of Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS): The

BCP is expected to mitigate the impact of the Pandemic on taxpayers,
FIRS’ staff, stakeholders, other visitors and the revenue generation
aspirations of the FGN:

 The due date for filing Companies Income Tax (CIT) returns has been
extended by one month
 Taxpayers can file their CIT returns with FIRS without an audited
account, provided that the audited accounts are filed within two
months after the revised due date of filing
 Timeline for payment of withholding tax and filing of value-added
tax returns has been extended from the 21st of every month to the
last working day of the month
 To minimize contact with FIRS, taxpayers can either submit their
returns on the FIRS e-portal or via designated emails based on the
categorization of such taxpayers by FIRS.
 All meetings of FIRS’ staff with taxpayers are to be limited to a
maximum of 10 people at any time.
 For desk reviews and tax audits, FIRS will publish information
requests on its website and create a portal where requested
documents can be uploaded by the taxpayer

3. Extension of deadline for filing 2019 individual income tax returns: The
Federal Capital Territory Internal Revenue Service (FCT IRS) and The Edo
State Internal Revenue Service (EIRS) extends deadline for filing 2019
individual income tax returns to allow taxpayers observe the directives
for partial closure of public offices to curb the spread of COVID-19.

Stock Exchange
1. The Nigeria Stock Exchange has granted all Dealing Member Firms (DMFs)
an additional 60-day grace period for the submission of their Audited
Financial Statement for the year ended 31 December 2019 from 30 March
2020 to 29 May 2020. DMFs can also trade remotely during the period of
COVID-19.

2. Securities & Exchange commission has extended the deadline for companies
to file their 2019 full year and first quarter 2020 financial reports by
60 days from 30 March 2020 to 30 May 2020.

3. The CBN has adopted a unified exchange rate system for Inter-Bank and
parallel market rates to ease pressure on FOREX earnings as oil prices
continues to plummet.

4. CBN adopts the official rate of N360 to a dollar for International Money
Transfer Operators rate to banks.

A QUESTIONABLE RESPONSE TO A PANDEMIC

Although the 1999 constitution clearly states that security and welfare of citizens are the
primary purposes of government, the COVID-19 pandemic situation in the country has exposed the
government’s failure to live up to this objective. The chief de-facto mechanisms of governance in
Nigeria are politics, propaganda, bureaucracy, violence and corruption. These mechanisms pose the
biggest threats to the capacity of the Nigerian government in managing critical emergencies such
as the COVID-19 pandemic. The country already is unable to effectively manage the war against
terrorism and corruption; unfortunately, instead of accepting these failures and seeking
effective strategies, it embarks on spurious and aggressive propaganda to defend the poor
performances and seek all means such as social media bill, hate speech bill and judicial
recklessness to shut down any opposing view. Sometimes anybody with genuine concerns is generally
labelled a looter or a corruption that is fighting back. Official responses to violence and
emergencies such as insurgences too seldom include coordinated outreach at the roots of conflict
to peacefully mediate disputes. They more commonly rely on a top-down application of police or
military force. Even worse, political leaders often taking sides or making bombastic statements.
In the recent Government Defense Anti-Corruption Index, which rated 82 countries on their anti-
corruption policies, Nigeria’s score indicated a very high level of corruption risk. It was
criticized for its lack of overall transparency and having no anti-corruption plan in place for
the military, no training for personnel, and significant opaque off-budget military expenditure.

The official response of the Nigerian government to the pandemic roves around three major items:

1. Movement restriction/law enforcement

2. Social welfare palliatives
3. Monetary relief measures

These three items unfortunately represent areas for which the government cannot not deny her own
significant failures. Basically, the country should never have witnessed any case of anybody
testing positive or transmitting the covid-19 if it has not graced the situation with its usual
slow and unresponsive demeanor to the genuine concerns and cries of the citizens. On more than
one occasion, Nigeria has missed critical windows to ensure that either it did not have any
infectious person in the country, or it did not allow the disease to spread into the community.
Initially, Nigeria ought to shut its airspace as soon as the first COVID-19 patient was
identified, but it did not. The second opportunity was to mandate everyone that arrived in the
country be taken to an isolation center for at least 14 days. The third window was to request and
require all those that came into the country in March to self-isolate from family and friends,
and public gatherings. Nigeria was too slow. In its weekly editorial on April 17, the NCDC said
the lockdown strategy introduced late March was important because it availed the country the
opportunity to promptly detect and treat cases, limit local transmission of disease, enhance
contact tracing and efficiently use resources and improve sample collection. The response of NCDC
in this case is far from reasonable reality since less resources will be required in preventing
the pandemic than in managing its occurrence and spread in the country. What is observed in this
situation is a possibly deliberate attempt of the government in allowing the occurrence of the
pandemic in such a way that can be manageable and at the same time attract counterpart funding
and international aids in significant dollars. They were simply going to create a case to follow
the money and probably attract a debt relief or pardon if the case deteriorates enough to deserve
such compassion from the creditors.

On the provision of social welfare palliatives, the process was contentious, lacks transparency
and devoid of basic accountability. With the absence of the EFFCC in the process, it serves as
the most significant and most obvious example of any corrupt process. The minister of finance,
without batting an eyelid said that the ministry has physically distributed over 26 billion naira
to the poorest of the poor that were affected by the situation in less than 24 hours without the
list of beneficiaries before and after the distribution and when she was asked why the list was
not available, she said the beneficiaries were ashamed of being tagged poorest of the poor and so
would prefer some form of anonymity. When the presidency was challenged about this development,
the president said: ‘’I have also directed that the current social register be expanded from 2.6
million households to 3.6 million households in the next two weeks. This means we will support an
additional one million homes with our social investment programs. A technical committee is
working on this and will submit a report to me by the end of this week.’’ How can a country with
no existing proper demographic representation and data, an up to date and accurate census data
and dilapidated medical sector generate and maintain a so called “social register” within the
shortest possible notice? Less expanding it in millions. Even if this miracle happens, increasing
the number of households for cash transfer from 2.6 million to 3.6 million is commendable, but it
is not judicious. Nigeria has over 95 million poor – what happens to the other indigents? This
does not address the poverty of millions of other Nigerians who have been made poorer by the
restrictive measures.

The aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus package through the provision of monetary relief
measures did not achieve its intended goal because the N3.5trillion loan was targeted at specific
businesses and not to households that were affected by the outbreak. Most economic agents, who
should have helped to revive the economy, were unable to engage in economic activities due to
fear of contracting the Covid-19 disease, while other economic agents did not engage in economic
activities for fear of contracting the Covid-19 disease when the government imposed and enforced
its social distancing policy and movement lockdown in Abuja, Lagos and Ogun states on the 30th
March of 2020. Due to the already weak and underdeveloped digital economy, most businesses,
including banks and technological companies, operated using the traditional ‘come-to-the office-
to-work’ model as opposed to the ‘working-from-home’ model. The operations of these markets and
industries would have been minimally affected if they had a large digital operation
infrastructure. The only services that were offered through the existing digital infrastructure
during the Covid-19 outbreak were telecommunication services, digital bank transfers and internet
services. Businesses that do not want their workforces to travel or whose employees are
uncomfortable taking trips can stay connected with team members, clients and prospective clients
around the world using software platforms video conferencing technologies.

The enforcement of the movement restriction regulation was assigned to a Nigeria's police that
has a bad reputation for brutality, extortion and harassment even before the current coronavirus
pandemic and the lockdown imposed to contain the virus. As the lockdowns and other security
issues continue, many Nigerians have little confidence that the attitude of the security forces
will improve soon despite assurances by the authorities. What is more interesting is however, is
the fact that the damning reports about the poor handling of the restriction enforcement by the
police did not first come from their usual fierce critics like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty
International. Instead it came from a Nigerian government agency- National Human Rights
Commission (NHRC). In its report about Nigeria's coronavirus lockdown period, the NHRC, a
government agency, said it had found "8 separate incidents of extrajudicial killings leading to
18 deaths”. In total the group said it received more than 100 complaints across 24 of Nigeria’s
36 states - including Lagos, Ogun and Abuja. Those three parts of the country had their two-week
lock down extended. Other areas have set a variety of restrictions, which have seen the police
and army called out to enforce them. Nigerian security forces have not responded to the NHRC's
report. Security forces enforcing the lockdown in parts of Nigeria have killed more people than
coronavirus itself, a local rights group says. It says law enforcers have killed 18 people in
Nigeria since lockdowns began on 30 March. Coronavirus has killed 12 people, according to health
ministry data. However, the Nigerian Police has described the crime episodes in Lagos and Ogun as
mere rumour-mongering and fake news. In fact, the Lagos State Police boss, CP Hakeem Odumosu
warned citizens against rumour-mongering and spreading of fake news in the twilight of the
insecurity situation as a result of COVID-19, as he claimed it poses dangers to efforts of
security agencies in crime prevention and control. Evidence of the killings started coming from
members of the public who rang their hotline or sent in videos; Lagos and Ogun state citizens
appear to be more vocal in their outcry following incessant attacks by these criminal gangs (‘One
Million Boys’ ‘Awawa Boys’ ‘No Salary Boys’) by posting videos of ‘criminal attacks’ and calling
for help on social media. The police continued to issue vague statements to news media and
Political leaders provided little guidance or reassurance. While addressing Nigerians on the
lockdown measures, President Muhammadu Buhari sent a mixed message on the role of the security
forces, saying: ''The security agencies have risen to the challenges posed by this situation with
gallantry and I commend them. I urge them to continue to maintain utmost vigilance, firmness as
well as restraint in enforcing the restrictions orders, while not neglecting statutory security
responsibilities." One begins to wonder if the president is abreast of the security implications
of the extended lockdown? If he was, what is he doing about the challenge? How is a government
going to help Nigerians whose reality and experiences they are obviously far away and
disconnected from? The head of the task force, Boss Mustapha, secretary to the government of the
federation (SGF), confessed he did not know that Nigeria’s healthcare system is in a deplorable
state. Also, a pivotal member of the task force, Osagie Ehanire, minister of health, told a
National Assembly panel that he is not aware if doctors are paid hazard allowance – at a time of
great national emergency!

What is observed here is that We import wholesale, the approach of other countries much more
advanced than we are and simply throw money at it without care or consideration for our own
unique peculiarities and expect things to work out.

INSECURITY: THE CONSEQUENCE OF A GOVERNMENT THAT CANNOT BE TRUSTED IN TIME OF

GREAT NEED.
In a normal situation without the occurrence of a pandemic, members of a typical community in
Nigeria provide their own water, power, security and other basic amenities without any form of
government input. They even pool their meagre resources to restore critical government
infrastructure such as roads and electric transformers. Despite the fact that most times salaries
and not paid, police extortion still takes its toll on them, access to social welfare is
absolutely unavailable and other untold hardships caused by unstable and inconsistent government
policies are still pervasive, they are still able to sustain these essential services by
themselves. According to social welfare theories, the provision of social welfare services to
vulnerable citizens in the population is the most proven way to protect them from economic
hardship in bad times (Ewalt and Jennings Jr, 2014). Unfortunately, in this outbreak, the
approach of the Nigerian government mocks this reality- the provision of Social welfare to her
citizens in a pandemic is considered a means to sustain their corrupt business as usual. The
government saw an opportunity in a pandemic control protocol to reinforce her money making
venture by granting massive financial relief only to economic sectors that have essentially been
treated as arms of the government in office and are not effective without political interference,
independence and the resources to work freely. The most important part of the relief that should
impact the ordinary citizen became heavily contentious. The ordinary citizen is informed that
tens of billions both in local and foreign currency has been released by government and received
by government through billionaire philanthropists, international aids and external governments
and yet the ordinary citizen is excluded from the direct relief these resources are to provide.
The minister of finance is busy shifting the goal posts in defining and redefining the semantics
around the definition of the criteria for those who are qualified to receive palliatives through
the so called conditional cash transfer. The minister seems to have a long list of redundant and
contradicting criteria for distributing the palliatives. Criteria for receiving a palliative has
been stated to be for only the poor and vulnerable, the most vulnerable, the poor, the poorest of
the poor, the poorest of the poor who does not live in a concrete building and has never used a
call credit above N100 in a lifetime and so on. The most provoking part of this arrangement is
that the minister stated that the resources have been shared physically to the appropriate
recipient within 12 hours without any need to necessary prove it. The resultant objective
observed with the use of these criteria is that the 90 million burgeoning constituency of the
poor including the working-class poor who can only eat and sustain themselves and their families
through their daily sources of livelihood have been carefully excluded from the list of
recipients of the palliatives. When complains and dialogues of displeasure starts emanating from
this populace, they are confronted with a government that is so disconnected from their feelings
and experiences; and worst still oppressive agencies that are ready to tighten the noose in the
name of law enforcement. Instead of messages of assurances that provide meaningful direction and
strategies, the president’s speech as usual was laden with reinforcement of self-centered
policies, hollow promises and recasts from the empty pledges of the previous addresses.

Nigerians are known to be a very resilient lot and by tradition, these set of Nigerians will not
be bothered about receiving the palliatives or not if they are not restricted from making a
living on their own by a lockdown and other pandemic control protocol; but when a government that
is constituted by a plundering few who do not pay their own personal bills, deny the citizenry of
the means of livelihood through a pandemic control protocol and employ a brutal and lawless law
enforcement agency to enforce lockdown regulations that excludes them, then a revolt is
inevitable. And since every insecurity and vice exploits a vulnerability, the exploitation of a
common revolt by all forms insecurity is also inevitable. If the educated and enlightened of the
population employ active communication channels to express their displeasure and voice out the
need for them to be given a favorable condition, it is very unlikely that the scavenging street
urchin and the hoodlums who collect daily levies from commercial vehicles and traders are going
to employ a less lethal and dangerous alternative.

As expected with a country like Nigeria with complexities and deplorable socio-economic indices ,
the trade-offs are becoming costlier as households and businesses suffer: Jobs are under threat,
many employees are finding it difficult to source money to keep workers at work and sustain the
production lines; the poorest of the poor are finding it difficult to feed at the period of
lockdown caused by the Corona Virus pandemic; touts are cut off from their daily income and the
millions of people who work as traders in the informal sector, which accounts for 85% of
employment across the country, have been forced to stay home, with no means of making ends meet.
Rowdy scenes of people scrambling for food in Nigeria's commercial capital, Lagos, have become
the new normal. Not only has the pandemic impacted the urban areas, the rural peoples’
livelihoods (and therefore demand for food) has also been greatly affected. Several farmers are
watching their crops and other farms products like eggs and dairy rot away in the farms or at the
depots waiting for trucks that never arrive; millers cannot get their milled rice to buyers.
There is no clarity around what can move around or what is essential transportation. People are
scared to go out and have their drivers on the road. This has created barriers to accessing food,
by restricting mobility and creating higher costs of doing business due to the tightening of
credit. This has also been followed by price hikes in the available goods and services as panic
buying and hoarding become a basic survival measure. Local drug manufacturers cannot manufacture
drugs that can temporarily suppress coronavirus in infected patients because the APIs used to
manufacture suppressant drugs can no longer be imported because China had shut down its factories
and closed its borders to control the coronavirus pandemic that is ravaging China at the time.
Also, there are insufficient isolation centers in many states including in Abuja and Lagos. The
number of infected patients in Lagos grew worse to the extent that a stadium had to be converted
to an isolation center. In the end, the Covid-19 outbreak will overwhelm the poor public health
infrastructure. What is obvious here is that in the long run, the pandemic response and control
measures applied under these conditions are not sustainable; they are at best a reactive approach
to a hydra-headed problem. They can slow down the spread of COVID-19 – only for a while. But
these measures cannot eliminate the spread of the disease or prevent re-infection. At this point,
it appears Nigerians have been given two options – to die of hunger and indignation or to die of
COVID-19. Either way it is death for them.
As the corona virus pandemic continues in Nigeria, the consequence beyond the economic
implications is the rise in the new behavioral response to the current situation; perhaps the
biggest to worry about is the uncertainty around the pandemic and the impact of the mismanaged
response of the Nigerian government on the population. The government has mismanaged every
decision and opportunity to effectively contain the negative impact of the pandemic-
opportunities to prevent its occurrence in the country has been mismanaged, resources to provide
relief for economy, business and people has been mismanaged; the enforcement of the pandemic
control protocols has been mismanaged, and more critically is the mismanagement of information
about the situation. The COVID-19 virus being new means that there are many questions and few
answers. Many people have information about their experience. And there’s been research. Some of
the information being gathered were found to be correct, some wrong. There’s a need for a whole
lot more research. For instance, we still need answers about how the virus behaves in a
particular local environment and how long it lasts outside the human body in Nigeria. China’s
experience reinforces the centrality of trust and transparency in public health. While Chinese
authorities have been more forthcoming with the WHO than they were with SARS, they did not alert
the Chinese public of the outbreak until well into January, and medical doctors and others were
pressured to remain quiet. This official silence was compounded by unofficial online speculation,
with misinformation across social media networks alleging the virus was a bioweapon (or it is
not), that millions have been infected (or they have not), and that the Gates Foundation
predicted this outbreak (or it did not). Similar rumors have impeded Ebola responses, and false
information and conspiracy theories have become a global health challenge. This challenge has
become more complicated with the general lack of coordinated response across the federation with
respect to accurate information about the pandemic. It was until the burial of the nation’s chief
of staff that the NCDC deem it fit to tell Nigerians that the remains of a deceased cannot
transmit the virus and how true this is, is still highly contested. The Federal Ministry of
Health and the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control were supposed to be the national coordinators.
But states seem to be making individual decisions with respect to the control protocols. The
traditionally aggressive propaganda of Nigerian leaders did not do any help. Politics should have
some boundaries. One such boundary is the containment of a pandemic. But it is so unfortunate
that the leadership of the nation does not realize that this is no time to make promises that are
not immediately fulfilled. While the politicians talked about money that had been assigned, two
weeks later the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control said that no money had been released. The
mismanagement of information did more than create unnecessary tension and panic, it led to the
wrong actions. We have already seen people come down with chloroquine toxicity in the pandemic
when they heard the drug might be effective. The mismanagement of information also led to
complacency as there are people who believe that black people cannot have the covid-19 infection.

The inability of the Nigerian government to design and implement a clear and effective strategy
for containing the pandemic and its negative impacts has generally heightened uncertainty over
the economy, employment, finances, relationships, and of course, physical and mental health. It
is not certain that those paid to educate the people on the protocols of the Covid-19 emergency
have driven the message of social distancing and self-isolation home enough to the masses
especially in places like Kano, Sokoto, Maiduguri and even parts of Kaduna. Even if they have
tried, such enlightenment does not settle into people’s consciousness so quickly. Sudden radio
announcements do not alter people’s time honored traditional beliefs and treasured habits. Nor
does propaganda suddenly build people bigger houses with pipe -borne water and proper
ventilation. What is missing in the current narrative around COVID-19 and its handling in Nigeria
is the fact that the government is yet to realize that she is no longer relevant to Nigerians
because Nigerians have moved on. A new social contract is needed to unify a vision for the
country. It is an uncertain time for the people and they are insecure, helpless, depressed,
hopeless, anxious about when the pandemic will end or if life will ever return to normal,
overwhelmed by fear and negative emotions, finding it hard to think logically and to accurately
weigh up the probability of loss of livelihood, the situation getting out of hand, becoming sick,
struggling to put food on the table, keeping the family safe, or something bad happening; news on
social media amid rumors and half-truths, or simply communicating with anxious friends are not
helping the situation either as they often exaggerate the scope of the problems faced, and even
paralyze individuals from taking action to overcome their fears. As the mind is fixed on coping
with the difficult circumstances and the accompanying destitution, the human instinct to survive
would kick in and restraint might increasingly put pressure on social-order and eventually lead
to the collapse of law and order. While uncertainty and change are inescapable parts of life, we
often adopt behaviors to try to cope with the discomfort they can bring. We are all different in
how much uncertainty we can tolerate in life. Some people seem to enjoy taking risks and living
unpredictable lives, while others find the randomness of life deeply distressing. But all of us
have a limit. If one becomes overwhelmed by uncertainty and worry, bottling up one feelings,
trying to put on a brave face, or forcing yourself to be positive may provide the best outcome.
But denying or suppressing emotions will only increase stress and anxiety and make one more
vulnerable to depression or burnout. The fear of financial and economic collapse can lead those
who are rich or have a predictably stable means of livelihood to panic buying, hoarding of
foreign currency for speculative reasons, flight to safety in consumption, households stocking up
on essential food and commodity items and the closure of shops or business places. The poor or
those who do not have a stable means of livelihood in the desperate move to survive can pay a
visit to those who have survival alternatives either to beg them for a survival ration or to take
it by force through burglary or robbery (Ozili and Arun, 2020). As tension over limited resources
also increases within the households, domestic violence, alcohol dependence, rape and the
physical or sexual exploitation of children in exchange for food and financial support is
inevitable; especially in fragile communities. While Nigerians in other parts of the country
worry about Coronavirus (COVID-19), most residents of Alimosho, Agege, Ojo, Ilamoshe Estate, Oke-
Afa, Isolo as well as some parts of Ogun State were more concerned about their security,
following attacks and intentions of attack by criminals, such as ‘One Million Boys’ ‘Awawa Boys,’
‘No Salary Boys,’ etc. Residents of all the areas resorted to burning tyres and keeping vigil
against attack from hoodlums after an initial panic mode, as hoodlums ravaged neighbouring areas
and tried to extend their attacks to the vicinity. These attacks started barely hours after
President Muhammadu Buhari announced an extension of the initial 14-day lockdown for another two
weeks to fight COVID-19 pandemic.

THE POST COVID-19 FUTURE

The economic consequences of the outbreak may well be more significant for Africa than the
epidemiological impact. Pundits have opined that the aftermath of the Coronavirus pandemic, if
not properly handled, could surpass the level of tragedy already experienced. There was a general
consensus among top economists that the coronavirus pandemic would plunge the world into a global
recession. Top IMF economists such as Gita Gopinath and Kristalina Georgieva stated that the
Covid-19 pandemic would trigger a global recession. The recession is expected to lead to massive
losses for businesses. The combined loss globally was estimated to be over $4 trillion. Before
the pandemic, Nigeria has been borrowing like a drunken monkey stung by a thousand bees. Today,
Nigeria is burdened by a surfeit of cheap loans from China as well as high interest rate
Eurobonds and dubious sundry loans from greedy domestic banks. Our total debt stock is now in
excess of $80 billion. Of the bilateral debts, more than 78% is owed to China. Even now, debt
servicing swallows up two thirds of Nigeria’s government revenue. This pandemic is the prelude to
a sovereign debt crisis.

For Nigeria, the risks and dangers ahead are specific and urgent. Here is a country that budgeted
for 2020 at $57 per barrel hoping to pump 2.2 million barrels a day. It was to later readjusted
to $30 in the heat of the Covid-19 emergency. The consequential fright of the oil price slump is
driven home by the profile of Nigeria’s revenue base as a nation. We derive 60% of government
revenue from oil royalties while 90% of our foreign exchange earnings come from oil and gas
revenues. For us, therefore, oil prices are an existential variable and a national security
factor. Economist have established that Nigeria has the highest break-even oil price in the world
at $133 because of a bloated national budget. We pay each of our 109 senators $37,500 a month. At
the current oil price, Nigeria’s daily loss of revenue is in the region of $35 million per day.
Since oil is the basis for the viability of the Naira, the currency may be steeply devalued as
our current external reserve of less than $37 billion cannot sustain the Central Bank’s
subsidized exchange rate of the Naira at its present level. Fitch has established that with these
figures, we may imminently be facing a sovereign debt crisis of epic proportions. The fragility
of our oil earnings prospects only compounds a tradition of abysmal governance and disastrous
policy making. Having run nearly all our refineries aground, Nigeria produces crude oil, exports
it to China, the US, Europe and India. Then we import refined gasoline at a higher price which is
sold to consumers at a subsidy which government pays thereby piling up budget deficits. Then the
same government borrows externally and internally to bridge the budget shortfalls. To pay for the
fleet of expensive Japanese SUVs for legislators and multitudes of government officials, our
government taxes businesses and individuals to sustain the lavish tastes and appetite of
government. When questioned about these excessive taxes, official economists and other rented
talkaholics cite a tax to GDP ratio from some IMF set menu card. They call it widening the tax
net to ‘capture’ and trap as many poor Nigerians as possible in this vicious net! In turn, the
businesses stagnate and can neither grow nor employ people. The few over- taxed formally employed
individuals can neither save nor consume enough to generate demand which drives supply and
production. According to basic economics, it is true fueling demand for goods and services that
an economy can grow. Bloomberg has established that in 2019, Nigeria spent four times as much
money subsidizing imported gasoline as it spent on schools, hospitals and science laboratories.
Even while borrowing heavily from all corners of the globe, we have budgeted to hand out a
whopping N37 billion to the leadership of an unproductive National Assembly in 2020 to renovate a
complex where not much debate takes place except haggling over pork and undisguised rent seeking.
If the current oil price scenario holds for another year, Nigeria’s options will narrow to
strangulating austerity policies that can only breed greater political and social upheaval. With
hardly any coherent economic policy since coming into office, the government may be riding a
tiger in his remaining three years in office. She may be compelled to devalue the nation’s Naira
with clear and present dangers of attendant inflation. With an estimated abject poverty
population of nearly 100 million, Nigeria may be headed in the direction of Venezuela and
Zimbabwe. The adoption of austerity measures may bring out the hunger mobs to the streets at a
rate that could overwhelm the security forces already overstretched by violent crime, criminal
insurgency and general insecurity.

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