ERS111: Lecture 7

Climate change in Earth’s past and present

In this lecture we will cover the evidence for climate
change in Earth’s history:

• What methods we use to determine the climate of

Earth’s past,
• The carbon cycle and greenhouse gases
• Where CO2 comes from

At the end of this week’s lectures you will be able to:

• Explain how we can determine (very accurately)
what past climate (and atmospheric CO2) were like.
• Describe the sources of energy that our society uses,
and explain how they form.
• Describe some of the ways our society produces CO2.
The key to predicting the future is to look to the geological past – has
this happened before? What happened then? How did things change
then? Can we apply that to now?
Record keeping of climate
We have a very accurate measurement of
temperature and weather over the last
~100 years

How far back would you trust these

measurements?
Short term proxies for climate

Tree rings – a measurement

of how ideal conditions were
for tree growth

What might this set of

rings suggest?
Longer term proxies for climate

Plants are a good

indicator of climate –
species change with
latitude
Spruce: colder.

Fossilised specimens
can suggest warmth
of climate through
species present
Grass: warmer.
Short term proxies for temperature
Pollen and leaves can be preserved in calm, waterlogged
environments – lack of oxygen is key.

Sediments at bottom of lake can be cored to collect

samples (deeper sediments = older climates)
Geological evidence for different climates

Certain sedimentary rocks are

deposited in climate-sensitive
settings.

• Glaciers and glacial till

• Reefs
• Coal beds

Very low resolution data – takes

a long time to deposit a lot of
sediment
These are all proxies – they only give an indication, not an
absolute value

How else can we measure

climate in Earths’ past?

We can use the

isotopic components
of materials
Ice Cores
Under a microscope, glacial ice has large ice crystals and
air bubbles. Snow compacts and melts and eventually
recrystallizes into ice.
The deepest ice in Antarctica is
~800,000 years old; Greenland closer
to ~1,000,000 years old

Bubbles provide atmospheric record

over that time
How do we know the age of ice?

Combine principles of stratigraphy

and absolute dating
Use the chemical signature
of the ash to work out
where it came from and
how old it is

We can measure the

proportion of CO2 in these
bubbles to model what the
climate was like
These bubbles provide definite evidence for CO2 levels for
the last ~800,000 years
What about before 800ka?

The further we go back in time, the less data we have,

and the more extrapolation is required

We don’t need
millions of years
of data to know
that what is
happening now is
not usual!
What about before 800ka?

There are no direct measurements of atmospheric

composition beyond 800 ka.

Instead we need to use preserved materials in rocks that

have a connection to the composition to the atmosphere.

A good example of this would be calcium carbonate –

CaCO3

Organisms such as marine snails make their shells out of

CaCO3 and use O2 from the ocean to do so.
 Carbon isotopes: 15 isotopes – #12 and 13 are stable, all
others decay – some quick, some slow

98.9% ~1% of >0.1%

of all C all C is of all C
is C12 C13 is C14

X X
Oxygen Isotopes:

3 main isotopes of Oxygen:

16O = 99.7 %
17O = 0.03 %
18O = 0.2 %

All are stable

Geochemical evidence for climate change
Earth processes, especially the
Element Isotope Abundance
climate, fractionate stable
isotopes in different ways 1H
Hydrogen 99.985
We can use natural 2H 0.015
variabilities in element
Carbon 12C 98.89
isotopes to measure this –
using stable isotopes 13C 1.11
Nitrogen 14N 99.63
15N 0.37
Oxygen 16O 99.759
17O 0.037
18O 0.204
How do we use stable isotopes?

Analyse how much of the rarer isotope is in your sample

and compare to a standard
The standard gives us a
relative amount that we can
compare to everything else
Standards are different
depending on the isotope:

• SMOW & VSMOW – 2H/1H

in H2O
• PDB & VPDB – 13C/12C (any
material)
 Stable isotope composition is expressed in δ (delta)
notation:

Rsample - Rstandard
δR in ‰ = x 1000
Rstandard

R is the isotope ratio of the HEAVY / LIGHT isotopes in

either your sample or a standard
i.e. D/H, 13C/12C , 15N/14N , 18O/16O
and is a very small number
How to ‘read’ isotope values

Take the example here:

δ18O in a clay mineral

(black) and in rainwater
(red)

é ( 18O / 16O ) - ( 18
O / 16
O )SMOW ù
d O(‰) = ê
18 sample
ú ´1000
ê
ë ( 18
O / 16
O )SMOW ú
û
101 / 10000 (i.e. 0.0101) - 100 / 10000 (i.e 0.001)
δ18O = x 1000 = 10
100 / 10000 (i.e 0.01)
How to ‘read’ isotope values

Take the example here:

δ18O in a clay mineral

(black) and in rainwater
(red)

é ( 18O / 16O ) - ( 18
O / 16
O )SMOW ù
d O(‰) = ê
18 sample
ú ´1000
ê
ë ( 18
O / 16
O )SMOW ú
û
99 / 10000 (i.e. 0.099) - 100 / 10000 (i.e 0.001)
δ18O = x 1000 = -10
100 / 10000 (i.e 0.001)
 The difference between
standard and sample is tiny –
needs x 1000 to be a useful
number – expressed as ‰

Since it is a difference,
referred to as δ [isotope]
[value] ‰

So they are presented as: δ18O (‰ V-SMOW) = 10.48

But knowing how it compares to a standard is not that

useful if we are looking at real world systems
How to ‘read’ isotope values
Take the example here:

δ18O in a clay mineral

(black) and in rainwater
(red)

δ18O = -5‰ means that

in this location, the
rainwater has less heavy δ18O = 22.4‰ means that in
isotope than the this location, the clay mineral
standard has more heavy isotope than
the standard
Key takeaway:

The values presented for stable isotopes are always

calculated by comparison to a standard.

Everyone uses the same standard values in their

calculations.

Therefore, we can start to compare materials and

processes from around the world – the ratio is
important, but the absolute amounts of stable isotope
doesn’t matter any more.
The use of oxygen to determine past environments

Two oxygen isotopes are used:

16O, which is lighter, and 18O, which is heavier.

16O water evaporates faster than 18O water.

During ice ages, the 16O water evaporated more readily

and was trapped on land as glacial ice. Oceans become
16O-depleted and 18O-enriched (the 18O/16O ratio is

positive).
Low Latitude High Latitude
ATMOSPHERE

↓ 18O/16O CLOUDS ↓ 18O/16O CLOUDS

Lighter water
preferentially Heavier water
evaporates preferentially
precipitates

↑ 18O/16O RAINWATER

ICE CAP
Lighter water
accumulates and is
↑ 18O/16O OCEAN WATER + SHELLS + SEAFLOOR SEDS LAKE stored in ice cap
Heavier water becomes seasonal layering
concentrated in ocean water
OCEAN ↓ 18O/16OICE CAPS
 In a colder climate:

↓ 18O/16O CLOUDS ↓ 18O/16O CLOUDS

Less evaporation –
but lighter isotopes Heavier isotopes still
still preferentially removed by rainfall
taken out of ocean

↑ 18O/16O RAINWATER ICE CAP

More water is
trapped as ice,
↑ ↑ 18O/16O OCEAN WATER + SHELLS + SEAFLOOR SEDS LAKE therefore less lighter
Less light isotope returned to ocean; isotope in system
water becomes enriched in heavier
isotopes
↓ ↓ 18O/16OICE CAPS
OCEAN
Shells of organisms reflect ocean
isotope ratios
Present day systems
fractionate stable
isotopes – measureable

Find product of this

system in the past –
measureable, then
compare

This can lead us

to calculate
temperature
and climate in
the geological
past
What about before 800ka?

Stable isotopes from microfossils from Lake Son Kol

(Kyrgyzstan)
The Carbon Cycle

The natural cycle of carbon release and sequestration

Natural variations in CO2
Changes in processes which produce or sequester CO2
give rise to rapid changes in atmospheric CO2
Why is it such a big deal?
Higher concentration of greenhouse gases = more energy
trapped by atmosphere
Other Greenhouse gases

How potent are they?

Water vapour - minimal
Methane – 28 x
Nitrous oxide – 265 x
CFCs – 10,200 x
Sulphur hexafluoride –
23,500 x
 How long do greenhouse gases last in the atmosphere?
CO2 – ‘hundreds of years’*
Methane – 12 years
Nitrous oxide – 114 years
CFCs – Variable; from a few months up to 1700 years
Sulphur hexafluoride – 3200 years
Some PFCs – 50,000 years

So impact of greenhouse gases is how well they capture

heat multiplied by their lifetime

[Link] - check out Table

2.14 for the full list of greenhouse gases
* It is very difficult to determine how long a CO2 molecule lasts in the atmosphere since so
many processes add and remove CO2
CO2 increase now vs geological time
Natural variations in CO2
Changes in processes which produce or sequester CO2
give rise to rapid changes in atmospheric CO2
What natural processes release CO2?
What natural processes sequester CO2?
CaCO3 is calcium carbonate – forms limestones
How can weathering remove CO2 from the atmosphere?
CO2 can dissolve in water:

CO2 + H2O = H2CO3 (or H+ and HCO3-)

Minerals react with CO2, water or acids during weathering:

• CaSiO3 + 2CO2 + 3H2O = Ca2+ + 2(HCO3-) + H4SiO4 – direct

removal of CO2
• CaAl2Si2O8 + H2O + 2H+ = Ca2+ + Al2Si2O5(OH)4 – hydrolysis
of feldspar to clay

So we have Ca2+ and HCO3- ions dissolved in water:

Ca2+ + 2(HCO3-) = CaCO3 + CO2 + H2O

Anthropogenic CO2
sources

Most energy derived

from non-renewable
sources

Energy sources:
• Coal
• Petroleum (oil and gas)
• Nuclear
• Geothermal
• Wind, solar, hydro, tidal
“Energy” includes electricity production, fuel for vehicles
and heat for industry

Each type of fuel comes with a carbon ‘cost’ – different for

different fuels
 Roughly 2
Or 293 kw/h weeks of
electricity

41kg Coal 117kg CO2

(32kg C)

13.4kg 47kg CO2

methane

19.6kg 64kg CO2

gasoline
Coal
[Link]

Still a major source of energy

in USA and China - Coal is
cheap.

Easy to find, easy to dig out

and transport.

Driver of the Industrial

Revolution in Europe and
North America.

The amount of coal being

mined and used is still
increasing
Coal
Deposited in low energy, swampy environments; little
decomposition of vegetation

Burial of plant matter under thick layers of sediment –

drives out all other components apart from carbon
 The majority of coal deposits are from the
Coal
Carboniferous to Permian era
Coal
Still a major source
of electricity.
Required for steel
making
High CO2 / kwh;
other impacts
[Link]

Petroleum - hydrocarbons
Remains of microscopic
marine plants and animals –
plankton

Nearly all petroleum occurs in

sediments of marine origin

Anoxic conditions are required

to prevent rapid
decomposition
Petroleum - hydrocarbons
Needs significant burial to
form hydrocarbons

Not all organic rich

sediments will form
hydrocarbons

Hydrocarbons migrate
through rock – need to be
trapped to be extracted
Petroleum - hydrocarbons

Oil and gas reserves are not as long lasting as coal – more
common in more recent rocks
Petroleum extraction is a huge
industry – companies can win
(or lose) hundreds of millions
of dollars
A drill core can cost $10,000
per metre drilled
Tar sands
Majority of Canada’s oil deposits are as tar sands –
extremely viscous oil trapped in sand
Requires a huge input of energy
before useful oil can be gained –
very low efficiency
 Oil is a mixture of many
different sized hydrocarbon
compounds – needs to be
distilled
Oil is less commonly used for
electricity production – more
for fuel (petrol, diesel and jet
fuel)
[Link]
Plastics
Vast majority of plastics
are made from oil.
We are starting to see
the long-term impact of
our plastic use.
Other energy sources:
Geothermal energy

The natural heat of

the Earth - produces
geysers and bubbling
mud pools

Closely associated with volcanic

areas (high temperatures) or
with mountain ranges (lower
temperature).
Geothermal energy

Source of heat – magma

or just deep rocks

Groundwater
interacts with hot
rocks, and brings
heat back to the
surface
 Geothermal power is CO2
neutral (but not zero)

Also provide a steady

baseline electric capacity.

We still need
technological
advancements to
drill deeper to
make geothermal
energy
widespread.
Geothermal energy is renewable, but not infinite, and is
expensive – it could power most of Earth’s electricity
generating needs
2024
Nuclear energy

Uranium is a
naturally unstable
element – decays
and produces
energy

A 1cm by 1cm Uranium fuel pellet produces the same

amount of energy as these conventional energy sources
Nuclear energy

Uranium is not that rare – 2.5

ppm (Au – 0.001 ppm)

Associated with
ancient mountain
belts

Quite easy to find;

hard to be economical
Nuclear energy and
Uranium mining in
Canada

Active mining in
Saskatchewan;
decommissioned
mines in Ontario
Nuclear energy provides 10% of global energy production
– net zero CO2 emissions.

~450 nuclear reactors on Earth – Canada has 19 reactors

at 4 sites; Two just east along the lake from Toronto.

Pickering nuclear facility

Fuel pellets have a finite
life span – what to do with
them once they are no
longer useful?

Inherent danger
from using
nuclear reactors
– Chernobyl,
Fukushima
Other energy sources –
Solar, wind, tidal, hydro

All require steel (Fe +

others), Cu, silicon (Si), Al,
cement (CaCO3) and
concrete, Zn, Mb, Rare
Earth Metals etc…
Amount of energy hitting Earth from Sun = ~1 kw / m2
Global energy usage per day = 59 billion kw /h
7,500 km2 needed for all energy needs
The problem with
renewable energy
resources

Electricity demand
is uneven – and
needs to be
exactly matched
by electricity
generation
The problem with renewable energy resources

Base load – constant electricity generation, regardless of

weather / time

Peak load – extra production needed when everyone puts

the kettle on
Other energy sources – Hydropower
Hydropower can provide base load or Peak load – but has its own
downsides

To safely build a large dam, you need to know how strong the
rock is and whether it can hold the weight of the water
Anthropogenic
carbon release
Industrial
Revolution in
the late 1700s
to mid 1800s
Economic switch to urbanized
manufacturing
Anthropogenic carbon sources 2(C8H18) + 25(O2) =
16(CO2) + 18(H2O)

1 litre of petrol
produces 2.3kg of
CO2 - ~560 litres

Total World power:

38% from coal
23% from natural gas
4% from oil
• According to the census ~70% of Toronto commuters drive to work
• Provincial data for GTA are 1.95 million vehicles/trips a day
• If we assume a 10km average distance per trip, with an average
fuel economy of 9 l per 100 km (or 0.9 l per trip) = 1,755,000 l of
fuel burnt per day
• A little over 4 million kg of CO2 per day or 1.47 billion kg a year
Air travel

Often the biggest single

component of our
individual emissions
Anthropogenic carbon sources
Cement production –

Limestone + Clay + Heat => CO2 + Ca3SiO5

(CaCO3) (an aluminium silicate) (clinker)

1 kg of CO2 per 1kg of cement (= 0.4l of petrol)

How much does a house make?

A large condo building?
A km of highway?

5 to 10% of anthropogenic
Emissions – 4.2 billion tonnes
Anthropogenic carbon sources
Agriculture –

deforestation; reduced soil

carbon sink; fertilisers;
transport; grain drying;
cattle and sheep farming
Anthropogenic carbon
sources
Why is beef and dairy so CO2 intensive?

Ruminant biology – grass is a terrible food to eat

Meat consumption
and demand is
rising - fast
 Day to day carbon
footprint

How much CO2 does a cup of

coffee produce?

Three factors to consider –

production of cup & lid,
production of coffee and
decomposition
Cup – paper from
forestry plus
plastic from oil

Lid - plastic from

oil

Plus energy of
production,
shipping,
manufacturing,
more shipping…
Coffee – grown in
tropical areas
Needs to be
sorted, shipping,
stored,
processed…
Despite plastic coating, cups do breakdown (eventually)
releasing the carbon into the atmosphere
Very tricky to calculate – but
may be 100 to 130 g of CO2
(equivalent) for one cup

Lid - ?? Maybe 50g?

1kg of coffee comes with a 10

to 11kg CO2 footprint –most of
this in the shipping and
processing – so ~200 g per cup

Total = ~350 to 400g (?) of CO2

Canadians use 1.6 to 2 billion cups a year

=
What about less
obvious sources of
greenhouse gas
emissions?

=
=

=
Bitcoin mining uses more energy
than entire countries – more
than Hungary, New Zealand or
Ireland – 23mT of CO2
Equivalent of 1 million
transatlantic flights per year
If Bitcoin mining
is so CO2
intensive, then
imagine all the
servers in the
world…
How much CO2 is too much?

What is the size and weight of the

atmosphere?

1m3 of air weights 1.3 kg

Atmosphere exerts ~1kg per cm2 in pressure

Atmosphere weighs 5.2 x 1018 kg –

5,200,000,000,000,000,000 kg

Absolute amounts of CO2 release are

somewhat useless – parts per million
instead
Key points to know:

• How the methods that we use to determine past climate work – tree
rings, pollen, geological layers, ice cores, carbonate.
• What stable isotopes are, and how they can be used to very accurately
explain climatic shifts in Earth’s ancient past.
• What the carbon cycle is, and how CO2 has changed naturally over time.
• The sources of energy for our society – what they are, how they form
(geologically) and why some are ‘better’ than others.
• What the other major (and more hidden) sources of CO2 our society
produces.

Chapter Reading:
Essentials of Geology – Chapter 12 (Energy resources); Chapter 19 (Global
climate change)
Portrait of a Planet – Chapter 14 (Energy resources); Chapter 23 (Global
change)