September 29, 2009

Read:
New York Times Sept 28
How to Press the Advantage with Iran by F. Leverett and H. M. Leverett

Session 2: What's Wrong with the Middle East (ctd.)

Five Theories on the Middle East

1. Imperialism
ME has been under control of foreign powers for centuries. For latter part of 19th and first half
th
of 20 centuries, ME was under primary control of Britain, France, and Ottoman Empire (Turkey).
Britain and France: extracted resources, created internal conflicts, prevented economic and
political development.
British and French imperialism was replaced by neo-imperialism (including U.S.) through
powerful influence from close ties with Middle Eastern political elites.

2. Arab-Israeli Conflict
Conflict between Arabs and Israelis caused neighboring states to mobilize resources toward
fighting the enemy. Political elites blamed internal problems on the enemy. The conflict is also a major
source of global terrorism, and regional civil disputes.
If the Arab-Israeli Conflict is resolved, the Middle East Problem will also be solved: economic
development and democratization would occur.

3. Islam
Any political system dependent on religious orthodoxy rather than rationality is bound to be
underdeveloped. For example: gender discrimination.
Evidence: secular separation between government and religion in certain areas of the Middle
East yields a developed society/economy.
Islam looks to the 12th and 13th centuries as ideal period. Characterized by scientific, literary,
economic success.
Saudi Arabia is example of Islamic regime. Women are restricted. Extremism in punishments.
Islam and democracy cannot be reconciled. Democracy=progress in economy and civil rights.

4. Authoritarianism
Middle East is characterized by high levels of authoritarianism. Absolute government; religious
government: run by political elites. Some are religious; others are secular.
Middle class has been staple for economic development. Successful middle class requires
freedom. ME does not afford that freedom. Thus, society is divided into extremely poor, and extremely
wealthy.
Those who are wealthy do not use their resources to develop infrastructure. Instead, they invest
outside the country. Thus, own country reaps no benefits.

5. All of the Above

Each theory above addresses a valid point. But they do not clearly explain the problem, nor do
they recommend a prescription for the problem.
1. Imperialist history does not account for disparities in development.
2. Arab-Israeli Conflict affects some states and not others.
3. Some secular states do well; others do not.
 4. Some authoritarian states do well (Dubai, UAE: self-investment); whereas others do not.
This theory calls for many actions: democratize, separate church and state, etc. Combination
may yield success.

What is the Middle East?

Historically, ME was considered a bridge between Europe, Asia and Africa. As a land, it has no
natural boundaries.
Connected religions: origin of three religions.
Connects different cultural groups: Arabs, Jews, Christians, Africans.
Contemporary bridge between producers and consumers of oil.

Two general conceptions of boundaries:

1. Compact conception: From Egypt to Iran. From Turkey to Persian Gulf.
2. Broad conception: Includes northern African states. All these states speak Arabic, and
are Muslim. Turkey, Iran, Persian Gulf, to Mauritania.
3. Three sub-regions: North Africa, Persian Gulf and Fertile Crescent.

Historical Foundations of the Modern Middle East

19th Century: European powers begin occupying parts of the Ottoman Empire and incorporate
them as colonies.
WWI: Ottoman Empire joins the Axis Powers: Germany and Austro-Hungary.
Turkish and British forces clash with each other: British attempt to invade ME from Egypt.
British attempt fails. British contact Hussein to mobilize Arab tribes in rebellion against
Ottomans. In return, British will:
-recognize and support Arab independence in all regions within limits demanded by Sheriff or
Mecca
-guarantee the Holy Places against all aggression and recognize their inviolability
-advise ME on effective government
But all advisers and administrators must be British.

Amidst arrangement with Hussein, British and French secretly negotiated agreement that would
divide ME into spheres (Sykes-Picot Agreement)
Agreement is: Direct British control of Iraq; French control of Libya, and Turkey.
Balfour Declaration: British support establishment of Israeli State in Palestine
These contradictory agreements (to Hussein, French, and Jews) created conflict in ME.
Arabs expected independence; French expected Syria and Lebanon, Jews expected new state.
This serves as evidence for the Imperialism Theory.
After WWI, League of Nations grants mandate to Britain to control Palestine

Interwar Era in Middle East

Hussein's son Faisal occupies Damascus, and establishes independent state of Syria. French
drives Faisal out. Britain gives Faisal control of Iraq.
British divide Palestine in 1922, giving eastern bank of Jordan River to Emir Abdullah (also
Hussein's son)
Palestinians still reside in their land; thus, Britain limits Jewish immigrations, causing Jewish
resentment.
British gives some autonomy to Egypt, but controls economic, political, foreign and security
affairs.
October 1, 2009

NYT Article: US Policy toward Iran: contradictory in verbal and behavioral aspects. Iranians view
Obama policy as similar to Bush regarding them.

Current events: Six-party talks with Iran in Geneva

Read Egyptian article on Lebanon

Arab Clashes (Arabs vs. Jews, British)

Jewish immigration increase in 1930s upset Palestinians. Riots began in Palestine. British
feared looming war in this region and in Europe (WWII).
British carried out oppressive actions to quell conflict in Palestine.

Peel Commission Report, 1938

Peel Commission investigates cause of revolts. And comes to conclusion of partitioning
Palestine into two states: one Arab, one Jewish. Jewish state relatively small compared to Arab state.
Jerusalem would remain under British control.
Palestinian National Committee rejected the report. They refused to give Jewish population any
autonomy.
Because of this refusal, British issued White Papers, which ceased Jewish immigration to quell
conflict.

Structural Changes in the Middle East

Two examples of imposed secularization, removal of monarchy, elimination of imperialism.
1.) Ottoman Empire in Turkey loses war. Turkey becomes controlled by Allied Powers. Sultan
in Turkey concedes much to victorious states.
Military elites in Turkey revolt, and a Turkish general (Ata Turk) overthrows the Sultanate, and
frees Turkey from Allied control. He establishes authoritarian regime in Turkey.
This is first case of Middle Eastern country ridding itself of imperial powers.
Atta Turk believes that political control should not be held by religious elites. He changed
Arabic script to Latin script. He afforded women with freedoms. He imposed a new value system on
Turkish people.
2.) Iran was not in WWI. However, British realized the emerging importance of oil. British
established ties with elites in Iran. Rez Akan, an Iranian colonel, was inspired by Turkey and took
control of the country. He eventually eliminated the Shah. He became a Shah.
He attempted a separation of church and state, but not as radical as Turkey. He was unsuccessful
in effectively reducing British influence.

Nationalism and WWII

National fervor was growing throughout ME. The goal for nationalist sentiment: removing
imperial powers, but focus on military reform.
On eve of WWII, ME nationalists link themselves with their enemies' enemy: Germany.
In 1941, coup occurs in Iraq. British regain control.
In Palestine, Sher Hamina Husseini, is expelled by British. He goes to Germany and tries to
convince Germany to establish Palestinian state.
These attempts to ally with Germany fail. During WWII, British influence and control in ME
remains the same.
During the war, Vichy France controls Syria and Lebanon. British fear that to be a German
stronghold in ME. Thus, they invade Syria and Lebanon.
Palestine, and India revolt during the war. The British pull out of their most difficult colonies.

British Pullout from Palestine

Violence against British in Palestine draws in more British troops. In 1947, British speak to UN
to end mandate over Palestine.
UN seeks solution to Palestine problem to prevent violence after British pullout.
UN Inquiry Commission is persuaded by results of the Holocaust, to create partition of
Palestine. At this time, Jews are 40%, Arabs are 60.
Partition seeks to establish two states, with Jews receiving 55% of land, Arabs: 45%. Nov 1947:
UN General Assembly accepts this plan. Jews accept this plan; Arabs reject it. Arabs wanted Palestine
for themselves.
As a result of the plan's passage, civil war breaks out. 1947-1948: Jews push out Arabs, are
successful militarily. They occupy more land than allocated to them by UN.
British troops completely leave Palestine in May 1948. Palestine conflict becomes international.
Other countries (Egypt and Jordan) become involved to push Jews out. Jews secure decisive
victory.
Israel is then immediately recognized by major powers in the world. As a result, 750,000
Palestinians become refugees.
Jews control 75% of Palestine. West Bank is controlled by Jordan. Gaza Strip is controlled by
Egypt. Population becomes 80% Jews; 20% Arabs.
Series of coups begin in Syria. These stem from discontent over Jordanian and Egyptian loss.
Egyptians create in Egypt and remove monarchy.
King Abdullah is assassinated in Jerusalem in 1952. Replaced by his grandson.
Entire Arab world is characterized by uncertainty
Characteristics of the Middle East in this era:
1.) Instability: coup d'eta^ts, civil war
2.) Arab-Israeli Conflict: becomes international center of attention, led to series of armed
disagreements after 1948. Territorial issues led to small clashes between Israel and its
neighbors.
3.) ME becomes proxy for Cold War between U.S. And Soviet Union: U.S. Fears S.U expansion in
Asia and ME. Thus, U.S. Creates allies in the ME. They planned to create the Baghdad Pact:
Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia. However, Egypt opposed this plan as imperialist.

Egypt (Nasser) nationalizes Suez Canal (connects Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea. This angers
Israel, which depends on the canal. Egypt relies on Soviet assistance.
1956-Sinai/Suez War: Egypt is attacked by three powers. Israelis occupy Sinai Peninsula.
British occupy entrance to Suez Canal and threaten to invade Cairo.
U.S. And Soviet pressure Israelis and British to withdraw from those areas.
Although Egypt did not win militarily, it witnessed the withdrawal of Britain and Israel from
those lands. Thus, he became Pan-Arab nationalist idol (Sunnis)

Pan-Arab Nationalist View:

The enemy: Western imperialism, Zionism (extension of imperialism), and ineffective
monarchies.
Goal: Establish federation of Arab states..
Sunni-majority conception.
Egypt removed imperialist powers, removed monarchy, nationalized important resources,
engaged Israel to remove it, and created unity between Arab peoples.
 Pan-Arabism spreads in ME, creating pressure to establish a new Pan-Arab state.
United Arab Republic is created for three years.
Arab Cold War: clash between authoritarian governments of Egypt , Iraq, versus conservative
monarchies: Jordan, Saudi Arabia.

October 6, 2009

State Formation in the Middle East

Lebanon: Factional conflict

Pro-Syrian (Hezbollah) v. Anti-Syrian factions
Fundamental differences between factions create unstable conditions in Lebanese government.
Political and ethnic differences.

Enemies of Pan-Arabism
Imperialism, Zionism and conservative Arab monarchies
Notion: all ME problems stem from imperialism.
Imperialist powers drew national boundaries without regard of resident peoples.
“uma”=nation. Conceptual identity from similar linguistic, religious, ethnic fundamentals.
Concept included Shiite and Sunni peoples. In practice, Turkey and Iran (Shiite) were excluded.
Institutionalized backwardness: lack of education, economic development and political development.
Result: foreigners profited; natives did not.
Agents of imperialism have continued presence in region: Israel, corrupt rulers or Arab states.
Imperialism continues assertion of force: Egypt, Algeria, oil companies.

Cold War in ME
Two superpowers tried to establish military bases in ME
U.S. Goal: Establish belt of U.S.-friendly states around Soviets
Attempts of to fight local nationalism (France in Algeria)
Attempts to establish regional security alliances (Baghdad Pact, 1954)

British attempt to establish anti-Soviet alliance centered around Iraq, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
This attempt creates anger and resentment
September 1955: Soviet-Egyptian agreement of major arms sales deal to Egypt.
Soviet Union increases presence in region by supplying arms to Iraqi regime.
ME becomes split: pro-Soviet, and pro-Western.
(Conservative, monarchies) Pro US: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey.
(Radical, Pan-Arab) Pro Soviet: Iraq, Algeria, Egypt

Arab Cold War

Radical camp attempts to create Arab union in 1958-1961. (United Arab Republic=Egyptian and
Syrian)
Domestic factions create coups in conservative Arab states with help from radical states.
Fierce debates in Arab League and series of Arab summits.
Palestine issue becomes dividing issue between two camps
1962: Yemeni revolution. Radicals attempt to overthrow monarch. Civil war develops. Saudi Arabia
and Jordan (support Northern Yemen), support the monarchy. Egypt sends troops to support the
radicals.
This war lasts until May 1967, when Egypt pulls out to deal with Israel
June 1967: Six Day War. Israel defeats Egypt, Syria and Jordan, and occupies their lands in Palestine.

Decline of Pan-Arabism and Return to Stateness

Six Day War ends the Arab Cold War.
Pan Arabism and Nasserism are defeated as idealogies.
Arab world realizes that problems are fundamental (governmental, economic, historical causes). That
Pan-Arabism did not advance Arab cause, but led to struggles.
Palestinians become increasingly involved in Arab affairs.
Growing level of self-reliance among Arab nations: Shift from focus on unified Arab nation to
individual stabilized countries.
Regimes stabilize (less revolutions, coups, regime changes)

Six Day War results in uniting the Arab states against Israel. Inter-Arab conflicts decrease,
However, no clear, joint Arab policy emerges. Egypt negotiates in early 1970s to reclaim territory from
Israel.
Israel refuses and Egypt joins with Syria to attack Israel in 1973
This war results in Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty of 1979, creates pathway for peace negotiations.
The treaty isolates Egypt from the Arab world.
Syria leads group of states opposing separate agreements with Israel.
Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988, most Arab states support Iraq. Syria and Libya support Iran. Arab nations are
split once again.
Egyptian support of Iraq eventually bring it back into circle of Arab nations
Result: Egyptian-Syrian relations improve by the end of the war

Another Split:
1990: Iraq invades Kuwait. U.S. Leads Saudi Arabia, Gulf States, Egypt and Syria in coalition against
Iraq. These states believe that the invasion goes against Arab League principles
Jordan, Libya, Palestinians support Iraq.
U.S. Create Madrid Conference in 1991, to resolve Arab-Israeli conflict.
This conferences improved relations in ME. Also enhances 1993 Oslo Accords which brought
Palestinian Liberation Organization into the peace process.
Arab League moves back to Cairo after having boycotted Egypt. It also suspends its boycott of Israeli
products.
Morocco, Tunisia and some Gulf states establish commerce relations with Israel
Madrid Conference created bilateral track (Israel and individual nations) and multilateral track of peace
negotiations. This addressed issues of arms control, regional security, economic development, water,
resources, etc.
Not much agreement occurred, but it created foundation for Israeli participation in regional policies.
Turkey also increased its role in regional politics.

Religious Radicalism
This radicalism existed concurrently with secular nationalism: presently still the case.
Almost every Arab state underwent revolutionary period in which radical elements took power from
conservative governments.
These groups called for return to Islamic principles and Islamic law (Islamic Sha'ria).
Most notable Islamic movement in the Arab world is the Muslim Brotherhood.
Sha'ria: law system inspired by the Koran, the Sunna, older Arabic law systems, which were parallel
systems, and work from Muslim scholars in first two centuries of Islam.
It is “Islam-inspired”, aka law system of Muslims.
The Muslim brotherhood movement occurred in Egypt, 1928.
Led by Hassan Al Bana, who called for return to Islamic values in learning, observance and prayer.
Initial motivations were not political.
The movement had underground, anti-regime character. Some were terrorist movements.
Palestinian Hamas: offspring of Islamic Jihad, of Al Qaeda movements within Muslim Brotherhood.

Shi'ite radicalism: develops alongside Sunni radicalism.

October 13, 2009

Poll finds Muslims Thriving, but not content, by laurie goodstein. New york times.

Muslim Population: article in Jordan times

China, India, Russia-300 million Muslims live as minority in these countries.
30 million Muslims in Europe
18-20% Shiite-Iran, Iraq, Pakistan
80-82%-Sunni

Session 5: Political Movements, States and Regional Politics.

Domestic Conflict Stats

Interstate casualties (900,000) from 1946-2004, are a third of domestic conflicts (2,700,000).

Movements in the Middle East with regional implications: some were national; others were extra-
national.
Nationalist movements:
1. Arab “conservatism and statist movements
2. Zionism
3. Turkish Nationalism
Internationalist movements
1. Pan Arabism
2. Arab Socialism
3. Ba'athism
4. Islamic Fundamentalism (Political Islam)
5. Arab Liberalism

Conservative Nationalism
Tied with traditional and largely religious monarchies. Success is inherited. The king (Sultan) is
a messenger of God, and is anointed by the church (Islamic leadership).King personifies the state;
L'e'tat c'est moi.
Aristocracy: family, military, religious elite. Not necessary economic elite. But in many cases,
the royal family is well off.
Family ties across national boundaries usually do not prevent war among relatives.
Common concern about threats to the monachic structure from republican nationalism and
super-nationalist movements.

Secular (Republican) Nationalism takes four forms:

1. Democratic Nationalism
2. Authoritarian Nationalism (civilian)
 Typically relies on an ideology which can be national or international ideology (National ID or
communism). Loyalty lies with the ideology; government personifies the ideology. Typically ruled by a
party representing the ideology. Relies on the military and on secret police for protection of the regime,
but leadership is civilian. Succession occurs within leadership group.
3. Authoritarian Nationalism (military)
Major ideology of regime is efficiency. This regime does not necessarily rise in high-threat
situations with respect to national security. Regime relies exclusively on military. Some civilian
cooperation occurs with economic interests. Typically rules by military junta, or by leader who emerges
from a military post. Succession determined by military elite, or by coup. Aristocracy and stature
defined by military rank
4. Personalist Nationalism
Centered around charismatic leader or around an ideology that personifies the state around the
notion of leadership (e.g. Nazism, Fascism, Peronism). Leader can be civilian or military. Loyalty lies
with leader, like in monarchies. However, the person assumed the position by his skill; not God-given.
Status is defined by loyalty to leader. Possible to have party bureaucracy, or just a close circle of loyal
advisers. Military is not necessarily major basis of support. In some cases, rather, it is a secret police
loyal to the leader.

State Formation Case Study: Israel & the ME

Struggle for Palestine: any victory by one nationalist movement is at expense of the other. Zero sum.
Palestinian national movement v. Zionist movement
Colonial administration of Palestine by Britain, as strategic bridge between Asia, Africa and Europe.
“Burden of the white man:” theoretical basis for imperialism, including in ME
Struggle is not isolated. The religious nature of the land brings attention and pressure from other Arab
states.

Stages of the 1948 war:

Civil war- 11/1947- 5/1948
International war: 5-12/1948
Armistice agreement and Palestinian refugee problem
Non-settlement of Palestine problem

Postwar era:
Palestinian infiltrations
Boundary issues
State building
Revolutionary changes in the Arab world
Post-1948 sources of the Arab-Israeli conflict

Israeli population triples within 5 years. Leaders anticipate additional round of warfare with
neighboring states. In response, they wanted to establish a melting pot of a country, with national
identity. And, create a successful military force as central national symbol.
Neighboring countries see revolutions and coups, brings revolutionary figures to power who have
Palestine in their eyes.
Revolution and War
Iran and Iraq, 1975-1988
Iraqi regime: Since 1988-military regimes, leaders replaced when they are overthrown
Leaders are primarily Sunni officers, who control three communities in the country: Shiite, Sunni and
Kurds.
Kurds constantly demanded autonomy; led to civil wars between regime and Kurds.
No overt violence between Sunni and Shiite populations in Iraq prior to 1991.

In Iran, regime is authoritarian.

1953-communist leader comes to power who tries to overthrow the Shah with U.S. assistance.
Turkey regime acts as example for the Iranian regime. He clashes with the Islamic elite in Iran.
These opposing elite are exiled, which causes resentment and eventually the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

Tensions between Iran and Iraq

Both countries argue over islands in the Persian Gulf.
Iran supports the Kurdish nationalist movement, opposing the Iraqi government.
Hussein chooses to focus on one of two enemies: the Kurds (internal threats)
He negotiates with Iran in the Algiers Agreement of 1975.
Hussein yields control of the islands to Iran, that the Kurdish rebellion loses support from Iran.
1979: Hostage Crisis at U.S. Embassy.
Iranian revolutionary regime criticizes Saddam as an infidel. The regime urges Shiite in Iraq to rebel.
Hussein feels threatened by calls for civil war.
At the same time, Saddam wants to gain the outlet in the Persian Gulf.
In December 1980, he invades Iran.

October 15, 2009

Internationalism
Goals can only be achieved by transcending national boundaries or eliminating national boundaries.
Goals override principal national characteristics (ethnicity, race, language, common history, geography,
religion)
Collective ID defined by overarching principle—differentiating one movement from another
Ex: Communism—working class united by their exploitation by the bourgeoisie
Nazism—transcends national boundaries on the basis of race (Aryan Supremacy)

Two Varieties of Internationalism:

1. Secular Internationalism
Ex: Marxism and communism—anti-religion.
Organizing principles: class struggle, solidarity of the proletariat
Liberal integration (Ex: European community)--unification of liberal democracies that are
diverse in race, governmental systems.
Organizing Principle: functional interdependence across issue-areas—economics, security,
culture
Pan-Arabism: focused on secular society in which Islam unifies but no political function.
Defined by Arabism, not Sunni Islam, or Shiite Islam

2. Religious Internationalism
Organized around a religious concept that requires religious control of government
Requires 1. unified religious control of several countries, or 2. solidarity among all countries
run by religious elites from same religion
Ex: Zionism—aspiring for a united Israel state, and a connection between global Jewish
communities
Ex: Fundamental Islam—viewing Muslims within system of Islamic law
 In democracies, sovereignty lies with legislature. In religious governmental systems,
sovereignty lies with religious leaders.

Political Movements in the ME: An Evolutionary Perspective

Pre 1914: Ottoman Empire: no political movement

1915-1922: Hashemite & Persian nationalism—conservative nationalism; opposed Ottomans, British
and French—resulted in partial success in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan and Iran; failure in Iraq &
Yemen.
1915-present: Zionism—Democratic nationalism, opposed Arab nationalism, pan Arabism, Islamic
Fundamentalism—success
1920-present: Turkish Nationalism—authoritarian and democratic nationalism: opposed conservative
nationalism (Ottomans)--success
1936-present: Arab nationalism—authoritarian nationalism: opposed conservative nationalism,
Imperialism, Zionism—partial success in Egypt, Algeria, Iraq; failure in Palestine and Iraq
1945-present: Pan Arabism—Secular internationalism; opposed conservative nationalism, authoritarian
nationalism and Zionism-failure
1946-present: Lebanese nationalism—Democratic nationalism; opposed Imperialism—partial success
1979-present: Islamic Fundamentalism—Religious internationalism; opposed authoritarian
nationalism, Zionism, conservative nationalism—partial success in Iran; failure in Algeria, Egypt,
Syria, Afghan and Sudan

Session 9
Domestic Politics and International Politics in the Middle East

Diversionary Theory of Conflict

Diverting attention from domestic issues by creating conflict abroad.
Correspondence between political instability and armed conflict would depend on the political system

Personalist system: single leader

If political instability occurs, leader may be expelled or killed. Has high interest in diversionary
conflict
Centrist system: committee-run, military junta, communist
Entire party or military is vulnerable as one entity, also has high interest in diversionary conflict
Polyarchy: democracies

Rally around the flag effect:

Ex 9/11, brought domestic support for armed conflict, fewer civil liberties, desire for “security”
However, as conflict is prolonged, casualties accumulate and justification for war erodes, then support
erodes.

Political Development and Conflict Theory

-Other theory has two phenomenon simultaneously occurring
-This theory has conflict occurring after political instability

State Building
1. Building of Monarchies
Saudi Arabia and Jordan, adaptation of Bedouin tribal practices to states
Two countries had strong tribal traditions with homogeneous religious practices
They recruited leaders of these tribes into the regime and military
Family ties determine social position. Royal families control politics, military and economy.
King is advised by Council of Ministers composed almost exclusively of royal family members.
Military role in politics is minimal.
Saudi Arabia governed according to Shari'a (Islamic law)
Jordan-
Similar monarchic structure, adopted tribal practices
However, population was more heterogeneous (Palestinians), monarchy assumes more
constitutional structure with greater latitude to professional executive
Royal leadership recognized the need to incorporate Palestinians into regime
Militarily remained strictly run by Bedouin officers loyal to King; military is influential because
of this
Executive is more diverse
Parliament acts as legislature, but may be adjourned by the King

In both Jordan and Saudi Arabia, transference of existing traditions into new state structures occurred.
They preserved this structure without much change over time.
No meaningful outside threat during initial period of state building.
Substantial support from imperialist powers (e.g., Britain in Jordan). This preserves monarchy during
initial period.

Israel-State Building from Scratch?

Prestate institutions: Jewish Agency, party system, para-military organizations
Temporary government during War of Independence
Incorporation of all political and religious factions
Jewish religious groups believed society should be governed by Jewish law
Creating secular government would alienate significant portion of Jewish community
Compromise (Status Quo): Institutionalization of Jewish marital law. Public institutions would
not work on Sabbath, etc. In general, society would be democratic.
Declaration of Independence and formation of government system through compromise,
recognizing that 20% of the population were Muslims and Christians
System allowed favor toward Jews, immigration law allowed Jews to immediately gain
citizenship,
Arabs cannot immediately assume citizenship during initial period, Arabs under martial law
Martial law was lifted in 1967, however many restrictions remained on Arabs
Arabs were not required to serve in military

State consolidation as supreme: Altalena and dissolution of Palmach

Para-military groups were required to stand down and join the Israeli military.
Some groups refused.
Dominant party within coalition government: For first 19 years, no party held majority
Labor Party always ran executive as dominant party in coalition government
Role of army-myth of “melting pot”
Israeli immigrants came from all over, spoke different languages and had different culture, but
shared a religion.
Military became an icon for assimilating the new immigrants into one people
Use of force as state building factor: Policy of retaliation
Political change
Egypt and Turkey: Revolutions from Above
Egypt:
Until July 1952, Egypt was Constitutional monarch. King was executive, but had considerable
parliamentary power within multiparty system
July 1952: Free officers stage coup d'etat. They depose the king and declare temporary
government
Initial direction was unclear, but had quick turn toward state centralized economy.
Economic reforms: nationalization of key assets (banks, Suez Canal).
Land reforms: reclassified land taxes, created large developmental projects: Aswan Dam
Authoritarian government, reliant on military
Establishment of a single party system-Arab Socialist Union (Communist Party as model)
No elections, party was political arm of the government
However, the party did not stand for socialism.
Ruling elite came from the Free Officers who staged the coup
Retired military officers placed in charge of most civilian administrative projects
Political change accompanied by instigation of conflict with Western Powers (e.g. leading the
opposition to the Baghdad Pact, nationalization of the Canal, and establishment of ties with
Soviet Union.
Instigated domestic unrest in conservative monarchies

Session 10: Leadership and International Politics

Turkey/Ottoman Empire: Sick Man of Europe

Fails to transform into industrial society. Used force to sustain stability. 1807-1923=Erosion of
the empire
Source of major political change: Turkey's defeat in WWI and continued decay of Ottoman
empire
Ata Turk (Mustafa Kamel). Turkish officer who fough bravely in WWI, recognized internal
weakness of political system of Caliphate in Ottoman Empire
Staged a revolution against the Caliphate (1920-23) using the military as principal source of
power
Established secular republic in Turkey in 1923. Transformed monarchic principles to nationalist
ones
New republic was initially military government, with Ata Turk as president.
Ata Turk was a religious Muslim, but established secular government with nationalist ideas.

Turkey's reforms:
Abolished sultanate, formed non-hereditary government
Secular rule: abolished religious courts and religious law in national affairs.
Established universal suffrage law and civilian institutions
Based foreign policy on retracting borders, pro-west ties
Military acted as guarantor of civilian system: military constitutionally enforces secular civilian
rule
Gradual transformation to democracy (under military supervision): martial law
Development of Turkish nationalist symbols (language, script, flag, educational system)
In contrast to Egyptian model, Turkish model based on fundamentally peaceful and inward
looking policy
Ata Turk's successor, Ismet Inounou, maintained Turkish neutrality during WWII, and gradually
transferred power to democratically elected legislature
Military coups staged in 1960 and 1980 in reaction to claims of inefficient management of
national affairs by civilian officials.
Civilian rule was restored after brief periods of martial law
Constant problems with minorities: principally, Kurds and Armenians.
Kurds established guerilla group PKK(Kurdistan's Working Party）

Syria and Iraq-

From Chaos to Stable Authoritarianism

Both societies are multiethnic.

Syria: 75% Sunni Muslims, 16% Alwaite, Druze, 9% Christians
Iraq: 60% Shiite, 35% Sunni, of which 15% are Kurds.
Both societies were under significant colonial influence
Syria-France
Iraq-Britain
Long instability present in both countries
Frequent coups, mostly by different military groups
Regimes stabilize in 1970s
Totalitarian rule by minorities: Iraq-Sunni; Syria-Alawites
Military is principal support group of regime
Top command of military & secret police composed of leader's tribe/ethnic group
Oppressive rule, and decisive crushing of any opposition
Stability occurs from civilian fear
Actual/Planned hereditary transfer of power in conservative monarchies
Close economies (except for Iraq's outward focus on oil)
Diversionary politics are frequently used: Syria-1967; Iraq-1990

Leadership theory
In general deals with the question of the attributes and behaviors that bring some people to
positions of political administrative or social power.
Also deals with the relationship between...

Max Weber: Three types of Leadership

1. Bureaucratic-Rational Leadership: Supported by legal authority and rational selection
and obedience procedures. Mostly present in democratic regimes.
2. Traditional Leadership: Supported by custom, norms and institutions based on tradition.
People follow these leaders because of symbolic significance of the position; not
because of the person's qualities or rationality of arrangement
3. Charismatic Leadership. Leader's personal qualities and their ideas conveys command
and support from followers

Patrimonial Leadership
Various origins: Hereditary, revolutionary, bureaucratic emergence
Personification of national aspirations: Tends to focus on fundamental national goals
Authoritarian: Suppresses opposition, commands obedience form followers
Visionary: Generate broad and long-ranging visions for states and groups of sta6tes
Conflictual: Uses conflict and violence to advance goals and create unity among followers.
November 10, 2009

Leaders and States

Three types of leadership x 2 characteristics for each: strong state institutions v. weak state institutions.
Interleadership Relations:
States interact with each other through their leaders. Chart in Session 11.
State and Leaders in the Middle East
Chart
Power of Leadership
Develops compelling vision for society
Inspire people to believe and follow the vision
Converts vision into plan of political action
Address opposition against political action.

Charisma and Charismatic Individuals

Charisma: gift

Leaders & Followers

Transactional relationships: exchange relationship (Leaders provide private or public goods to
followers; followers reward leaders with promotion
Transformational relationships: hierarchical relationships: Leader offers dollowers a common cause and
transforms a common cause
Value of Leadership
Inspires commitment for common good or better life
Motivates action
Unifies society
Generates collective outcomes which could not be achieved without above qualities
Risks of Leadership
Leaders chart overambitious goals
Leaders overextend will and capacity of society
Powerful leaders can lead society to follow disastrous goals.

Five Leaders in the Middle East

Ata Turk (Turkey): Charismatic, authoritarian, and transformational
Ben Gurion (Israel): Bureaucratic-rational, transformational
Unified society to radically change society, assimilated immigrants, defined Israeli
political system.
King Hussein (Jordan): Traditional, transactional
Came to power as child under British influence. Created loyalty among Bedouin, and
Palestinian immigrants;
Hafez Asad (Syria): Authoritarian, transactional
Comes to power under ethnic unrest, economic issues and conflict with Israeli; tensions
with Turkey. Creates tribal government, includes tribal leadership into regime and
military to stabilize Syria.
Yasser Arafat (Palestine): Terrorist, Guerrilla Fighter, State Builder
Recognized limits of terrorist acts. Supported creating political movement to advance
Palestinian cause. Created exile government; played role of diplomat. However, he did
not define what a Palestinian state would constitute.
November 12, 2009
Yasser Arafat: Statesman or Terrorist?
Palestinian conditions in the 1950s and 60s: Dismantling of all Palestinian institutions present
pre-1948
Formed Fatah, and PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization), seen by founders as fictional
organization with no substance.
PLO Strategy after Six Day War: terrorist acts, hijacking planes, attacks on Israel.
Arafat believed that Palestinian independence would rely on a military-backed movement, not
the PLO
Switched between terrorism and political action between 1973-1988
PLO switched to diplomacy, 1988-2000: Arafat believed that terrorism had exhausted its
options. Struggle would continue diplomatically with US negotiations
Camp David summit, outbreak of Al Aqsa Intifada: Israel agreed to officially recognize PLO as
sole representative of Palestine. Both agree on eventual path to two-state arrangement.
After Arafat dies, Hamas and PLO struggle over representing Palestine. Hamas becomes
dominant in Gaza. PLO controls West Bank. Result: Palestinian nationalist movement is split in
two.
Hamas: Solution: Retake entire Palestine from Israel; aspires to establish Islamic republic
PLO: Solution: Negotiate with Israel; aspires to establish secular republic
Leadership void occurs after Arafat's death

Leadership on the Middle East: Force of Change or Source of Stagnation?

Transformative force: domestic and international change.
Characteristically limited to national transformation, very few cases of regional change
Conservative pull: leadership survival in primordial societies
Ex: lack of economic development preserves authoritarian rule; no middle class, no call
for democracy or political liberalization.
Clashes of leadership: tragedies, opportunities and near misses
Ex: clash between Pan-Arabic leaders (secularists) vs traditionalist leaders (monarchs)
Ex: 1973 war, Egyptian vs. Syrian leaders in aftermath of failed war. (ltd. Egypt war
plan)
Alternatives to leadership: movements, structures and institutions
Successful movements are primarily national. International movements tend to be short-
lived

November 17, 2009

International Organizations in the Middle East (S. 11)

International organization (IO): institution designed to foster international cooperation. It has a

decision making body (secretariat) that consist of at least two different states

Types of IOs
IGO-International Governmental Organizations: organizations in which members represent
governments
INGO-International Non-governmental Organizations: organizations in which at least some
members do not represent governmental agencies.
Territorial Classification:
Global: representation of members irrespective of regional boundaries (UN, LATA, IAEA)
Regional: representation based on regional affiliation (OAU, OAS)
Sub-regional: membership based on sub-regional affiliation (ASEAN [Southeast Asia], Gulf
Corporation Council [Middle East])

Functional Classification
1. International Security (UC, OSCE)
2. Economic Cooperation (IMF, World Bank)
3. Administrative Cooperation (IAEA [nuclear watchdog], ICAO [aviation standardization])
4. Humanitarian organizations: UNESCO

Functions:
1. Promote peace and collective security
2. Promote economic cooperation and common economic development
3. Manage international relations that require coordination (aviation, communication, transport)
4. Deal with humanitarian and environmental issues
5. Deal with problems from sharing “collective goods” (freeloaders)

IOs and International Regimes

Key Research Questions
1. To what extent do IOs fulfill their functions?
2. To what extent do IOs solve their collective good problems?
3. What are the indirect effects of IOs on the policies of states?
4. What are the effects of IOs on systemic or regional processes?

International Regime: Set of rules and

Arab League:
Founded in 1945
Key Goals:
1. Promote cooperation among Arab states
2. Insure common security and safeguard independence and sovereignty of its members
3. Create a possibly future Arab Union

Structure:
1. Council: representatives of all Arab states; each with a single vote, regardless of size.
2. Special committees: (1). economic and financial affairs; (2). communication; (3). cultural
affairs; (4). nationality; (5). social affairs; (6). health
3. Secretariat: Secretary General and staff.
4. Principal decision-making forums: Council of Heads of States, Council of Foreign Ministers

Significant actions of the League:

Decisions Prior to Palestine:
1. Decisions prior to 1948 War: Arab states coordinated actions before and after UN
partition organization. Decided to send in collective troops after British forces departed
to regain control of Palestine.
2. Decisions on the Jordan diversion: Israel diverted water from Lebanon and Syria. Arab
League authorized diversion of Jordan river to prevent Israeli action.
 3. Khartoum Summit of 1967: Arabs deliberated on action in wake of Six Day War.
Decision: discontinue communication with Israel.
4. Cairo Summit, 1970: Moved quarters of PLO from Jordan to Lebanon. Arabs recognized
PLO as sole representative of Palestine.
5. Rabat Summit, 1974: Told Jordan to abandon controlling the West Bank.
6. Expulsion of Egypt, 1979: Arab League moved headquarters from Cairo to Saudi Arabia
in protest of Egypt's treaty with Israel.,
7. Ending Arab Boycott, 1994: League ended boycott of Israel and states with which it did
business.
8. Saudi Initiative, 2001; 2007: States: If Israel allows Palestinians to return to Israel's
land, then all Arab states will sign peace treaties with Israel.

Decisions and actions on Kuwait

1. 1961 Crisis: Kuwait gained independence. Iraq historically recognized Kuwait as one of its
provinces. With this news, Iraq mobilized troops against Kuwait. Arab League issued warning
against Iraq that ceased the hostilities.
2. 1990 Crisis: League passed resolutions paralleling UN resolutions requiring Iraq to withdraw
from Kuwait.
Decisions on Lebanon
1. 1976 Decision: Violence broke out in Lebanon. Lebanon asked League for help. League
authorized Syria to place troops in Lebanon. 30,000 Syrian forces remained in Lebanon until
2005.
Arab League and 2003 US attack on Iraq
1. Some members of League supported US invasion of Iraq; however, they could not explicitly
express their views. Individual states authorized US to use sea and airspace to enable the
invasion.

Characterizing the Arab League:

Arab League was effective.
Example: Palestinian issues. It expressed resolve and acted as a unified voting bloc in the UN. It
authorized use of force against Israel many occasions.
Effective resolutions: Saudi Initiative, Jordan diversion; created sense of cooperation.
Actions: Resolutions were not always acted upon; however, states acted in general sense of resolution.
Peculiar relations: States would be more angry at other member than Israel: sense of betrayal on
policies.

November 24, 2009

Regime Building in the Middle East: Multilateral Talks, 1992-1996

1. Madrid Conference, 1991
Two Phases: bilateral peace negotiations, multilateral problem solving of regional issues
Working groups:
1. Arms Control and Regional Security
2. Regional Economic Development
3. Refugees
4. Water Resources
5. Environment
The working Groups: Vision and Reality
The vision: Collective problem solving, mutual benefit through cooperation.
1. Regional Security: WMD disarmament, conventional and weapons controls, and reduction of
armed forces, Confidence and Security Building Measures, formation of regional security
regime
2. Economic Development: Regional bank, multilateral agreements, joint ventures, regional trade
agreements, collective economic development.
3. Refugees: Comprehensive solution to problem of Palestinian refugees
4. Water & Environment: Water sharing and water trading agreements. Resolution of water-related
disputes. Agreements on environmental preservation in the region. Oil-related pollution.

Reality:
1. ACRS: Suspended due to Israeli-Egyptian dispute over nuclear disarmament.
2. Economics: Little progress. Arab fear of Israeli and external economic imperialism
3. Refugees: Palestinians and Arabs refusal to deal with issue outside of Israeli-Palestinian peace
process.
All matters were made hostage to (contingent on) progress in bilateral negotiations:

Alliances in World Politics

An international alliance is an agreement between or among states that stipulates a common course of
action in a given set of circumstances.

Common goals of alliances:

1. Pool resources to augment national power
2. Prevent losing power because of alliances between enemy states
3. Reduce uncertainty

Types of Alliances:
1. Defense Pact: Agreement to defend alliance members in event of attack on one member by a
state not in the alliance.
2. Offensive Pact: Agreement to pool resources, enabling members to jointly attack one or more
nonmembers.
3. Non-aggression Pact: Agreement not to attack each other.
4. Entente: Agreement to coordinate policy
5. Treaties of friendship: expression of common interests and visions in world politics

What causes states to form alliances?

1. Common threats/common enemies
2. Desire to prevent prospective partner from becoming enemy's ally
3. Joining the bandwagon: sharing spoils of war
4. Reducing uncertainty
5. Express affinity
6. Spillover effects of cooperative success

Aversity to Alliance Formation

1. Fear of exploitation—ally's paradox
States fear that allies might drag them to war
2. Chain-ganging
Alliance may escalate crises that will lead to war
3. Buck-passing
 Alliance fails to deter war because allies shift burden of defense to another member
4. Security-autonomy tradeoff
Members lose autonomy if another members makes a decision that leads to war. However,
states would gain security.

Ally's Paradox
State A enters alliance with State B, to increase security and prevent war through collective actor
deterrence.
However, State B faces enemy State C, with whom it wants to settle an account through war. It would
lose without State A, thus, it recruits State A.
B starts war with C. A wishes to remain credible. A enters war against C, as B hoped.
War becomes complicated and prolonged. State B pulls out of the war to leave A to fight by itself.

Example: Six Day War

Syria called Egypt to help them because they were concerned about losing to Israel
Egypt escalated the war. Israel focused on attacking Egyptians
Syrians did not launch a ground attack, offered token attacks.

December 1, 2009
Political Economy of the Middle East
Political Economy:
1. concerns interface of politics with economics. It examines how politics affect economics and
vice versa.
2. Deals with relationship between accumulation and distribution of material wealth and poverty.
Seen in context of political developments of and among states
3. Focuses on economic and human components of national power
4. Examines economic relations between states

Human Development Index:

1. aggregate of indicators for development
1. Life expectancy
2. Adult literacy
3. Education
4. GDP per capita
Economic Significance of ME
1. Transportation: Land and sea routes to Far East and Africa; Suez Canal is a strategic and
economic link.
2. Oil: discovery of oil in early 20th century
3. Labor: cost of labor is low; Middle East is potential market.

Structures and Sources of ME Economies

1. Nomadic Economies
Most Middle Eastern economies stem from historically nomadic economies: little agriculture
2. Agriculture in the Middle East
Limited to areas close to Nile, Euphrates and Tigris rivers
3. Oil Economy
Gulf States: single-commodity economy. Oil solely determines their economic fate.
Accumulated wealth was distributed among elite. It was not invested into country's
 infrastructure.
4. Industrialization
European societies transformed from agricultural to industrial centers. Transformation never
fully occurred in Middle East. Arab peoples migrated to large urban centers. Society became
urbanized without strong economic support. Foreign direct investment serves as
transformational force in Asian countries. Management trains supervisors and workers, which
transforms society. Foreign direct investment has skipped ME.
5. Globalization
Transference of information, resources, technology has not benefited the Middle East

Developmental Stagnation: Why has the Middle East not seen widespread economic development?
1. Economic development & population growth rate
Middle East population will double every 25 years,
Economy has to grow more than 3% annually to keep up with population growth rate.
Paradox: Lack of economic development, hard labor, creates incentive for large families to succeed
economically

2. Defense Burden
Economic resources are invested toward defense. Those valuable resources are diverted from
infrastructural investment. Military spending is counterproductive because it does not produce new
resources.
Countries with high wealth from oil spend it on military expenses.

3. Bunker Economies
Creating a middle class is a threat to authoritarianism. Thus, authoritarian governments discourage, or
stifle economic development to remain in power. They stifle development by creating large militaries.
Example: Nasser of Egypt mandated employment of educated citizens by regime. Result: The educated
do not oppose the regime because their livelihood depends on it.

December 3, 2009
Future of the Middle East: Alternative Scenarios

Factors to Consider
1. Structural: Population growth, resources, environment
2. Political Movements: National, subnational, supernational.
3. Leaderships: Different types of leaderships and the consequences
4. Politics and Political Structures:
5. International factors: Role of non-regional actors: U.S., international organizations,
globalization.

Extrapolation Scenario
1. Key Features: More of the same; current trends continue in a linear fashion.
2. Middle East population doubled in 20-25 years due to average of 3% annual growth
3. Egypt, Turkey and Iran passing the 120 million mark within the same period and passing the
100 million mark within 15 years
4. Major ME cities are choked by massive population growth without infrastructural capability
5. Economy: Decline in GDP per capita in most populous ME states (with/out significant change
in oil prices)
6. Widening gap between rich and poor states in the region, and growing economic disparities
 within states
7. Structure of ME economies remains unchanged.
8. Purchasing power is reduced because of increasingly disadvantageous trade terms (ratio of
import v. exports).
9. Growing debt of most ME states; inability to replay debt to international institutions and to
developed states
10. Possible decline in oil prices due to increased reliance on oil substitutes and economic changes
in the OECD countries
11. Depletion of oil reserves in some ME states, reduced revenues from oil exports
12. Depletion of major natural resources, e.g., water in the region due to increased demand
(growing population) and climactic changes (global warming)
13. Technologies for water stalinization will become too expensive to use on a grand scale for most
states in the region.

Political Movements
1. Intensifying confrontation among several competing movements:
1. Radical Islam: against nationalist movements and conservative regimes
2. Regional Nationalist: Islamic movements against western imperialism, globalization and
Zionism
3. No significant rise of liberal forces in key regional states
4. Population growth and economic stagnation will increase Radical Islam's influence. It will
increase the influence of right-wing and religious forces inside Israel, in reaction to radical
Islam.

International Involvement in the Middle East

1. Continued military involvement by the United States, both due to radical threats to oil, and to
increased instability of pro-Western regimes.
2. Increased attacks on U.S. interests by radical Islamic groups, supported by radical states (Iran,
Syria)
3. Growing likelihood of civilizational conflict as anti-Americal and anti-Western sentiments rise.