In-Class Discussion Activities Based on William Benter’s Story with Answers

Activity 1: Probability Terminology in Horse Betting

Objective: Understand and use the terminology of probability.

 Instructions:
1. The sample space for a horse race with 5 horses (A, B, C, D, E) is:
Sample space={A,B,C,D,E}\text{Sample space} = \{A, B, C, D,
E\}Sample space={A,B,C,D,E}
2. If you choose Horse B, the event is "Horse B wins the race." Event B={B}\
text{Event B} = \{B\}Event B={B}
3. For Horses A and C, if you want to describe an event where either Horse A or
Horse C wins: Event (A or C)={A,C}\text{Event (A or C)} = \{A,
C\}Event (A or C)={A,C}
 Discussion: By organizing the potential outcomes into a sample space and defining
specific events, you can better understand and calculate probabilities. This is exactly how
Benter structured his understanding of horse races.

Activity 2: Mutually Exclusive vs. Independent Events

Objective: Determine whether two events are mutually exclusive and whether two events are
independent.

 Instructions:
1. Bet 1: Horse A wins; Bet 2: Horse B wins.
 Are these events mutually exclusive?
Yes. Only one horse can win the race, so these two events cannot both
happen at the same time. If Horse A wins, Horse B cannot win.
2. Bet 3: Horse A wins Race 1; Bet 4: Horse B wins Race 2.
 Are these events independent?
Yes. The outcome of Race 1 does not affect the outcome of Race 2.
Whether Horse A wins Race 1 does not change Horse B’s chances of
winning Race 2.
 Discussion: Identifying mutually exclusive and independent events is crucial in analyzing
the likelihood of different outcomes in betting, as it clarifies the relationships between
events.

Activity 3: Applying the Addition and Multiplication Rules

Objective: Calculate probabilities using the Addition Rules and Multiplication Rules.

 Instructions:
1. You’re betting on two horses in a single race:
 P(A) = 30% = 0.30
 P(B) = 20% = 0.20
 P(A and B) = 0 (mutually exclusive)
2. Using the Addition Rule: P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) +
P(B) - P(A \cap B)P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
P(A∪B)=0.30+0.20−0=0.50P(A \cup B) = 0.30 + 0.20 - 0 =
0.50P(A∪B)=0.30+0.20−0=0.50 The probability of either Horse A or Horse B
winning is 50%.
3. Now for two different races:
 P(A wins Race 1) = 30% = 0.30
 P(A wins Race 2) = 40% = 0.40
4. Using the Multiplication Rule: P(A∩B)=P(A)×P(B)=0.30×0.40=0.12P(A \cap
B) = P(A) \times P(B) = 0.30 \times 0.40 =
0.12P(A∩B)=P(A)×P(B)=0.30×0.40=0.12 The probability of Horse A winning
both Race 1 and Race 2 is 12%.
 Discussion: This demonstrates how to use addition and multiplication rules to assess the
probability of combined events, allowing gamblers to make better predictions.

Activity 4: Constructing and Interpreting Contingency Tables

Objective: Construct and interpret Contingency Tables.

 Instructions:
1. Create a contingency table for horse race outcomes based on track conditions
(wet or dry) and jockey experience (novice or experienced):
2.
Novice Jockey Experienced Jockey Total
Wet Track 3 wins 7 wins 10 wins
Dry Track 5 wins 10 wins 15 wins
Total 8 wins 17 wins 25 wins

2. Analyze:
o The table shows that experienced jockeys tend to perform better overall (17 wins
compared to 8 for novice jockeys).
o On a wet track, experienced jockeys perform much better (7 wins vs. 3 for
novices), making them the better option in such conditions.

 Discussion: Contingency tables help organize and visualize data, making it easier to
interpret trends and make decisions based on historical data.
Activity 5: Constructing and Interpreting Venn Diagrams

Objective: Construct and interpret Venn Diagrams.

 Instructions:
1. You are given data on horses’ characteristics:
 4 horses have high speed.
 3 horses perform well on wet tracks.
 2 horses have both high speed and perform well on wet tracks.
2. Venn Diagram:
3. Probability Calculation:

o P(High Speed or Wet Track) = P(High Speed) + P(Wet Track) - P(Both):

P(High Speed or Wet Track)=47+37−27=57P(\text{High Speed or Wet Track}) = \

frac{4}{7} + \frac{3}{7} - \frac{2}{7} = \frac{5}{7}P(High Speed or Wet Track)=74
+73−72=75 The probability that a horse has either high speed or performs well on wet
tracks is 5/7.

 Discussion: This demonstrates how Venn diagrams help visualize overlapping

probabilities and compute combined events.

Activity 6: Constructing and Interpreting Tree Diagrams

Objective: Construct and interpret Tree Diagrams.

 Instructions:
1. Draw a tree diagram for two races:
 Race 1: Horse A wins (30%) or loses (70%).
 Race 2 (if win): 50% chance of winning.
 Race 2 (if lose): 20% chance of winning.
 Tree Diagram:

Race 1
/ \
Win (30%) Lose (70%)
/ \ / \
Win (50%) Lose (50%) Win (20%) Lose (80%)

2. Probability Calculations:
 o P(Win both races) = P(Win Race 1) \times P(Win Race 2 if win):
P(Win both)=0.30×0.50=0.15=15%P(\text{Win both}) = 0.30 \times 0.50 = 0.15
= 15\%P(Win both)=0.30×0.50=0.15=15%
o P(Lose Race 1, Win Race 2) = P(Lose Race 1) \times P(Win Race 2 if lose):
P(Lose, Win)=0.70×0.20=0.14=14%P(\text{Lose, Win}) = 0.70 \times 0.20 =
0.14 = 14\%P(Lose, Win)=0.70×0.20=0.14=14%

 Discussion: Tree diagrams help visualize sequential events and calculate the total
probability of combined outcomes, providing a clear decision-making tool.