CH-13 Probability 1. BASIC CONCEPTS AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY Objective Qs (1 mark) » IfA and B are two events such that P(A/B) = 2 x P(B/A) and P(A) + P(B) ==, then P(B) is equal to: ; 2 ®, (b) : > @: [CBSE 2023} ~ A problem in Mathematics is given to three students whose chances of solving it are $33 respectively. If the events of their solving the problem are independent then the probability that the problem will be solved, is: i oe bs © 3 @, [CBSE SQP 2023] . Given two independent events A and B such that P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.6 and P(A’ mB’) is: @09 (b) 0.18 (©) 0.28 @o.1 [CBSE SQP 2022] . If A and B are two independent events with P(A) = i and P(B) = 5, then P(B'/A) is: @% Oa Oz @l {CBSE 2020) CLICK HERE FOR ey SOLUTIONS5. A die is thrown once. Let A be the event that the number obtained is greater than 3 . Let g event that the number obtained is less than 5 . Then P(A U B) is: 2 OF @: @o @1 [CBSE 2020} 6. A card is picked at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Given that the picked card is a ueen, the probability ofthis card to be a card of spade is: @ of ot os 2 [CBSE 2020] Very Short & Short Qs (1 -3 marks) 7. Aand B throw adie alternately till one of them “et in B lie a gets a'6' and wins the game. Find their respective probabilities of winning, if A starts the game first ee [CBSE 2023] 8. Three friends go for coffee. They decide who will pay the bill, by each tossing a coin and then letting the “odd person" pay. There is no odd person if all three tosses produce the same result. It there is no odd person in the first round, they make a second round of tosses and they continue to do so until there is an odd person. What is the probability that exactly three rounds of tosses are made? [CBSE SQP 2022] } State whether A 9. Events A and B are such that P(A) and B are independent? [CBSE Term-2 2022] , P(B) = Jand P(not A or not B) 10. A box B, contains 1 white ball and 3 red balls, Another box Bz contains 2 white balls and 3 red balls. If one ball is drawn at random from each of the boxes By and B2, then find the probability that the two balls drawn are of the same colour, {CBSE Term-2 2022] 11. Two cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards one-by-one without replacement, What is the probability of getting first card red and second card jack? [CBSE Term-2 SQP 2022] 12, Two cards are drawn at random and oneby-one without replacement from a well shuffled pack of ” $2 playing cards, Find the probability that one card is red and other is black CLICK HERE FOR SOLUTIONS de the[CBSE 2020) 13. A bag contains 3 black, 4 red and as 2 green balls. If th 5 then the probability that the ball are of different colowe on” oa Siulaneously at random, - (CBSE 2020) 14, The probability of findin; green si finding a groen signal on X on two coesrns, {CBSE 2020} busy crossing X is 30%. What is in X on two consecutive days out of three? ie Prtbabill oy 15. A speaks truth in 80% cases and B speak likely to agree with each other in stating truth in 90% cases. In what percenta <= ee at percentage of cases are they [CBSE SQP 2020} 16.1fA and B = a din two events such that P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.3 and P(A UB) = 0.6, then find [CBSE 2020) 17. Out of 8 outstanding students of a school, in which there are 3 boys and 5 girls, a team of 4 ca is to be selected for a quiz competition. Find the probability that 2 boys and 2 girls are selected. [CBSE 2019) 18. Prove that if E and F are independent events, then the events E’ and F’ are also independent. [CBSE 2019] 19. 12 cards numbered 1 to 12 (one number on one card), are placed in a box and mixed up thoroughly. Then a card is drawn at random from the box. If itis known that the number on the “drawn card is greater than 5, find the probability that the card bears an odd number. [CBSE 2019] 20. A die marked 1, 2, 3 in red and 4, 5, 6 in green is tossed. Let A be the event, ‘and B be the event, 'the number is red’. Are A and B independent? [CBSE 2019] ‘the number is even’, 21. A black and a red die are rolled together. Find the conditional probability of obtaining the sum 8, ‘given that the red die resulted in a number less than 4 {CBSE 2018] 122. Assume that each born child is equally likely to be a boy ora girl Ifa family has (wo children, nat is the conditional probability that both are girls? Given that (A) the youngest is @ girl. (B) at least one is a git. [CBSE 2014] © CLICK HERE FOR ‘ " SOLUTIONS23. A bag contains 3 red and 7 black balls. Two balls are drawn one by one at a time at random without replacement. If second drawn ball is red then what is the probability the first drawn bal) also red? [CBSE 2014] 24. A couple has two children. Find the probability that both are boys, it is known that: (A) one of the children is a boy (B) older child is a boy. [CBSE 2014] Long Qs (4—5 marks) 25. Ina game of Archery, each ring of the Archery target is valued. The centre most ring is worth 10 Points and rest ofthe rings are allotted points 9to | in sequential order moving outwards. Archer A is likely to ear 10 points witha probability of 0.8 and Archer B is likely to earn 10 Points with a probability of 0.9, Based on the above information, answer the following questions: 1fboth of them hit the Archery target, then find the probability that (A) Exactly one of them earns 10 points. (B) both of them earn 10 points. [CBSE Term-2 2022} 26. Probability of solving a specific problem independently by A and B are both try to solve the problem independently, find the probability that (A) the problem is solved, @® CLICK HERE FOR and 3 respectively. If() exactly one of them solves the problem. [CBSE 2018} 27. A and B throw a Pair of dice alternately. A wins the Same if he gets a total of 10, If A starts the game, [CBSE 2016] Bame if he gets a total of 7 and B wins the then find the probability that B wins. pumneiiet Sy ei 28. If and B are two independent events such that P(A B)= 4 and P(A NB) = + then find P(A) and P(B). [CBSE 2015] 29. Consider the experiment of tossing a coin. If the coin shows head, then throw a die. Find the conditional Probability of the event that than 4’ given that ‘there is atleast one tail’, [CBSE 2014] |, toss it again, but if it shows tail, | ‘the die shows a number greater 2. BAYES' THEOREM, RANDOM VARIABLE AND ITS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION Case Based Qs 30. In an Office three employees Jayant, S onia and Oliver process incoming copies of a certain form. Jayant processes 50% of the forms, Sonia processes 20% and Oliver the remaining 30% of the forms. Jayant has an error rate of 0.06, Sonia has an error rate of 0.04 and Oliver has an error rate of 0.03. Based on the above information, answer the following questions: (A) Find the probability that Sonia processed the form and committed an error. (B) Find the total probability of committing an error in processing the form, cl ing i ion, he selects a (C) The manager of the Company wants to do a quality check. During inspection, form at random from the days output of processed form, If the form selected at random has an error, find the probability that the form is not processed by Jayant, OR CLICK HERE FOR TIONS ARTHAM SOLU’Let E be the event of committing an error in processing the form and let £,, B, and E, be the events that Jayant, Sonia and Oliver processed the form. Find the value of Di. P(E; | £). [CBSE SQP 2023) 1. An insurance company believes that people can be divided into two classes: those who are accident prone and those who are not. The company's statistics show that an accident-prone person will have an accident at sometime wi ithin a fixed one-year period with probability 0.6, whereas this probability is 0.2 for a person who is not accident prone, The company knows that 20 percent of the population is accident prone. (A) What is the probability that a new policyholder will have an accident within a year of purchasing a policy? (B) Suppose that a new policyholder has an accident within a year of purchasing a policy. What is the probability that he or she is accident prone? [CBSE Term-2 SQP 2022] 32. There are two antiaircraft guns, named as A and B. The probabilities that the shell fired from ‘them hits an airplane are 0.3 and 0.2 respectively. Both of them fired one shell at an airplane at the same time. (A) What is the probability that the shell fired from exactly one of them hit the plane? (B) If itis known that the shell fired from exactly one of them hit the plane, then wh probability that it was fired from B? © CLICK HERE FOR ARTHAM SOLUTIONScpSE SQP 2022} tudi Recent studies suggest that roughly 12% of the world pen SiGe Ct MAMMA Coes AAAI gS Lexi — ax OR Not MC ARNG oF necro i} (ee RARAAARAMAA AAA ARAAaa A 0 Semone TOUCHY ENO MEMONDELTHAOD | Re | wcaaee rT toes MLD Depending upon the parents, the chances of having a left handed child are as follows: A: When both father and mother are left handed: Chances of left handed child is 24%. B : When father is right handed and mother is left handed: Chances of left handed child is 22%. C: When father is left handed and mother is right handed: Chances of left handed child is 17%. D: When both father and mother are right handed: Chances of left handed child is 9%. ‘Assuming that P(A) = P(B) = P(C) = P(D) = + and L denotes the event that child is left handed. (A) Find P(L/C) (B) Find P(E/A) (©) Find P(A/L) Find the probability that a randomly selected child is left handed given that exactly one of the parents is left handed. [CBSE 2023] Very Short & Short Qs (1 - 3 marks) 34. Two balls are drawn at random one by one with replacement from an ut in containing equal umber of ed balls and green balls, Find the probability distribution of number of red balls. Also, find the mean of random variable. CLICK HERE FOR SOLUTIONS[CBSE 2023] | 35. The random variable X has a probability distribution P(X) of the following form, where ' k "is some real number: kif =0 2k, ifx=1 3k, ifx = 2 0, otherwise P(X) = (A) Determine the value of ke (B) Find P(X < 2). (© Find P(x > 2). (CBSE 2023] 36. A bag contains | red and 3 white balls. Find the probability distribution of the number of red balls if2 balls are drawn at random from the bag one-by-one without replacement. [CBSE Term-2 SQP 2022] 37. There are two bags. Bag I contain 1 red and 3 white balls, and Bag II contains 3 red and 5 white balls. A bag is selected at random and a ball is drawn from it. Find the probability that the ball so drawn red in colour. [CBSE Term-2 2022] 38. A coin is tossed twice. The following table shows the probal ity distribution of number of tails: x 0 1 2 PX) KK 6K OK (A) Find the value of K. (B) Is the coin tossed biased or unbiased? Justify your answer, [CBSE Term-2 2022] 39. Three rotten apples are mixed with seven fresh apples, Find the probability distribution of the number of rotten apples, if three apples are drawn one by one with replacement. Find the mean of the number of rotten apples, [CBSE 2020] 40. In a shop X, 30 tins of ghee of type A and 40 tins of ghee of type B which look alike, are kept for sale. While in shop Y, similar 50 tins of ghee of type A and 60 tins of ghee of type B are there. One tin of ghee is purchased from one of the randomly selected shop and is found to be of type B. Find the probability that it is purchased from shop Y. [CBSE 2020] 41. Find the probability distribution of X, the number of heads in a simultancous toss of two coins. [CBSE 2019} © “CLICK HERE FOR : ae aii SOLUTIONSOf the students ina schoo}, it: : Ol, it is know th inregular. Previous year re that 30% have 100% | attendan A grade and 10% iregutar studeren tt 70% of al 10% ade a year, is le to the appointment of C. (CBSE 2016} 44. Three cards are drawn Successively with replacement from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards. Find I the probability distribution of the number of spades. Hence, find the mean of the distribution. (CBSE 2015] 45. A bag A contains 4 black and 6 red balls and bag B contains 7 black and 3 red balls. A die is thrown. If | or 2 appears on it, then bag A is choosen, otherwise bag B. If two balls are drawn at random (without replacement) from the selected bag, find the probability of one of them being red and another black. [CBSE 2015] Long Qs (4~5 marks) 46. There are two boxes, namely box-I and box-Il. Box-I contains 3 red and 6 black balls, Box-II contains 5 red and 5 black balls. One of the two boxes is selected at random and a ball is drawn at random. The ball drawn is found to be red. Find the probal box-II. [CBSE Term-2 2022] ity that this red ball comes out from 47. An insurance company insured 3000 cyclists, 6000 scooter drivers, and 9000 car drivers. The probability of an accident involving a cyclist, a scooter driver, and a car driver are 0.3,0.05 and 0.02 respectively. One of the insured persons meets with an accident. What is the probability that he is a cyclist? [CBSE 2019] 48, A manufacturer has three machine operators A, B and C. The first operator A produces 1% of defective items, whereas the other two operators B and C produces 5% and 7% defective items respectively. A is on the job for 50% of the time, B is on the job 30% of time and C on the job for 20% of the time, All the items are put into one stockpile and then one item is chosen at random from this and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was produced by A ? [CBSE 2019} 49. Often itis taken that a truthful person commands more respect in the society. A man is known to speak the truth 4 out of 5 times. He throws a die and reports that it is a six. Find the probability that it is actually a six. Do you also agree that the value of truthfulness leads to more respect in the society? CLICK HERE FOR SOLUTIONS[CBSE 2017] 50. A bag contains 4 balls. Two balls are drawn at random (without replacement) and are found to be white. What is the probability that all balls in the bag are white? [CBSE 2016} 51. A class has 15 students whose ages are 14,17,15,14,21,17,19,20,16,18,20,17, 16,19 and 20 years. One student is selected in such a manner that each has the same chance of being chosen and the age X of the selected student is recorded. What is the probability distribution of the random variable X? Find the mean of X. [CBSE 2014] 52. Ina game, a man wins a rupee for a six and loses a rupee for any other number when a fair die is ‘thrown. The man decided to throw a die thrice but to quit as and when he gets a six. Find the expected value of the amount he wins loses, [CBSE 2014 53. Two numbers are selected at random (without replacement) from the first six positive integers. Let X denote the larger of the two numbers obtained. Find the probability distribution of the random variable X and hence find the mean of the distribution. [CBSE 2014]