CLIMATE CHANGE

EVIDENCE & CAUSES

UPDATE 2020

An overview from the Royal Society and the

US National Academy of Science

NATIONAL ACADEMY THE

OF SCIENCE ROYAL

SCOCIETY

CLIMATE CHANGE IS ONE OF THE DEFINING ISSUES OF OUR TIME. It is now more certain than ever,
based on many lines of evidence, that humans are changing Earth’s climate. The atmosphere and oceans
have warmed, which has been accompanied by sea level rise, a strong decline in Arctic sea ice, and other
climate-related changes. The impacts of climate change on people and nature are increasingly apparent.
Unprecedented flooding, heat waves, and wildfires have cost billions in damages. Habitats are
undergoing rapid shifts in response to changing temperatures and precipitation patterns.

The Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences, with their similar missions to promote the
use of science to benefit society and to inform critical policy debates, produced the original Climate
Change: Evidence and Causes in 2014. It was written and reviewed by a UK-US team of leading climate
scientists. This new edition, prepared by the same author team, has been updated with the most recent
climate data and scientific analyses, all of which reinforce our understanding of human-caused climate
change. The evidence is clear. However, due to the nature of science, not every detail is ever totally
settled or certain. Nor has every pertinent question yet been answered. Scientific evidence continues to
be gathered around the world. Some things have become clearer and new insights have emerged. For
example, the period of slower warming during the 2000s and early 2010s has ended with a dramatic
jump to warmer temperatures between 2014 and 2015. Antarctic sea ice extent, which had been
increasing, began to decline in 2014, reaching a record low in 2017 that has persisted. These and other
recent observations have been woven into the discussions of the questions addressed in this booklet.
Calls for action are getting louder. The 2020 Global Risks Perception Survey from the World Economic
Forum ranked climate change and related environmental issues as the top five global risks likely to occur
within the next ten years. Yet, the international community still has far to go in showing increased
ambition on mitigation, adaptation, and other ways to tackle climate change. Scientific information is a
vital component for society to make informed decisions about how to reduce the magnitude of climate
change and how to adapt to its impacts. This booklet serves as a key reference document for decision
makers, policy makers, educators, and others seeking authoritative answers about the current state of
climate-change science. We are grateful that six years ago, under the leadership of Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone,
former President of the National Academy of Sciences, and Sir Paul Nurse, former President of the Royal
Society, these two organizations partnered to produce a high-level overview of climate change science.
As current Presidents of these organizations, we are pleased to offer an update to this key reference,
supported by the generosity of the Cicerone Family.

Marcia McNutt Venki Ramakrishnan

President, National Academy of Sciences President, Royal Society

FOR FURTHER READING ■ NRC, 2013: Abrupt Impacts of Climate
Change: Anticipating Surprises
For more detailed discussion of the topics
[[Link]
addressed in this document (including
references to the underlying original research), ■ NRC, 2011: Climate Stabilization Targets:
see: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts Over
Decades to Millennia
■ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[[Link]
(IPCC), 2019:
■ Royal Society 2010: Climate Change: A
Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in
Summary of the Science
a Changing Climate [[Link]
[[Link]
■ National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, ons/2010/ climate-change-summary-science]
and Medicine (NASEM), 2019: Negative
■ NRC, 2010: America’s Climate Choices:
Emissions Technologies and Reliable
Advancing the Science of Climate Change
Sequestration: A Research Agenda
[[Link] Much of
[[Link]
the original data underlying the scientific
■ Royal Society, 2018: Greenhouse gas removal findings discussed here are available at:
[[Link]
■ [Link]
■ U.S. Global Change Research Program
■ [Link]
(USGCRP), 2018: Fourth National Climate
Assessment Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and ■ [Link]
Adaptation in the United States
■ [Link]
[[Link]
■ [Link]
■ IPCC, 2018: Global Warming of 1.5°C
[[Link] ■ [Link]
■ [Link]
■ USGCRP, 2017: Fourth National Climate
Assessment Volume I: Climate Science Special ■ [Link]
Reports [[Link]

■ NASEM, 2016: Attribution of Extreme Physical Science Basis

Weather Events in the Context of Climate [[Link]
Change [[Link]

■ IPCC, 2013: Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

Working Group 1. Climate Change 2013: The

THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES (NAS) was established to advise the

United States on scientific and technical issues when President Lincoln
signed a Congressional charter in 1863. The National Research Council, the
operating arm of the National Academy of Sciences and the National
Academy of Engineering, has issued numerous reports on the causes of and
potential responses to climate change. Climate change resources from the
National Research Council are available at [Link]/climate.

THE ROYAL SOCIETY is a self-governing Fellowship of many of the world’s most

distinguished scientists. Its members are drawn from all areas of science,
engineering, and medicine. It is the national academy of science in the
UK. The Society’s fundamental purpose, reflected in its founding Charters of the
1660s, is to recognize, promote, and support excellence in science, and to
encourage the development and use of science for the benefit of
humanity. More information on the Society’s climate change work is
available at [Link]/policy/climate-change
THE

ROYAL

SOCIETY

NATIONAL ACADEMY

OF SCIENCE

CONTENT

Summary …….................................................................................................................................. 2

Climate Change Q&A

1 Is the climate warming?.............................................................................................................. 3

2 How do scientists know that recent climate change is largely caused by human activities? .... 5
3 CO2 is already in the atmosphere naturally, so why are emissions from

human activity significant?.......................................................................................................... 6

4 What role has the Sun played in climate change in recent decades? ......................................... 7
5 What do changes in the vertical structure of atmospheric temperature—from the

surface up to the stratosphere—tell us about the causes of recent climate change? ............... 8
6 Climate is always changing. Why is climate change of concern now? ........................................ 9
7 Is the current level of atmospheric CO2 concentration unprecedented in Earth’s history? ....... 9
8 Is there a point at which adding more CO2 will not cause further warming? .......................... 10
9 Does the rate of warming vary from one decade to another? ................................................. 11
10 Did the slowdown of warming during the 2000s to early 2010s

mean that climate change is no longer happening? .................................................................... 12

THE BASIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE...................................................................................................
B1–B8 CLIMATE CHANGE Q&A (continued)

11 If the world is warming, why are some winters and summers still very cold? ....................... 13
12 Why is Arctic sea ice decreasing while Antarctic sea ice has changed little? ..............................
14 13 How does climate change affect the strength and
frequency

of floods, droughts, hurricanes, and tornadoes? ......................................................................... 15

14 How fast is sea level rising? ..................................................................................................... 16
15 What is ocean acidification and why does it matter? ............................................................. 17
16 How confident are scientists that Earth will warm further over the coming century? .......... 18
7 Are climate changes of a few degrees a cause for
concern? ................................................... ..19 18 What are scientists doing to
address key uncertainties
in our understanding of the climate system? ............................................................................. 19
19 Are disaster scenarios about tipping points like “turning off the Gulf Stream”

and release of methane from the Arctic a cause for concern? ................................................... 21
20 If emissions of greenhouse gases were stopped, would the climate return

to the conditions of 200 years ago? ............................................................................................ 22

CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................ 23
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................ 24

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020

1
SUMMARY

GREENHOUSE GASES such as carbon dioxide (CO2) absorb heat (infrared radiation)
emitted from Earth’s surface. Increases in the atmospheric concentrations of these
gases cause Earth to warm by trapping more of this heat. Human activities—especially
the burning of fossil fuels since the start of the Industrial Revolution—have increased
atmospheric CO2 concentrations by more than 40%, with over half the increase
occurring since 1970. Since 1900, the global average surface
temperature has increased by about 1 °C (1.8 °F). This has been
accompanied by warming of the ocean, a rise in sea level, a strong
decline in Arctic sea ice, widespread increases in the frequency and intensity
of heatwaves, and many other associated climate effects. Much of this warming has
occurred in the last five decades. Detailed analyses have shown that the warming
during this period is mainly a result of the increased concentrations of CO2 and other
greenhouse gases. Continued emissions of these gases will cause further climate
change, including substantial increases in global average surface
temperature and important changes in regional climate. The
magnitude and timing of these changes will depend on many factors,
and slowdowns and accelerations in warming lasting a decade or more will
continue to occur. However, long-term climate change over many decades will depend
mainly on the total amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases emitted as a result of
human activities.

2 CLIMATE CHANGE
Q&A
IS THE CLIMATE CHANGE WARMING?_______________________________________________

1 Yes. Earth’s average surface air temperature has increased by about 1 °C (1.8 °F) since
1900, with over half of the increase occurring since the mid-1970s [Figure 1a]. A wide
range of other observations (such as reduced Arctic sea ice extent and increased
ocean heat content) and indications from the natural world (such as poleward shifts
of temperature-sensitive species of fish, mammals, insects, etc.) together provide
incontrovertible evidence of planetary-scale warming

The clearest evidence for surface warming comes from widespread thermometer records that,
in some places, extend back to the late 19th century. Today, temperatures are monitored at
many thousands of locations, over both the land and ocean surface. Indirect estimates of
temperature change from such sources as tree rings and ice cores help to place recent
temperature changes in the context of the past. In terms of the average surface temperature of
Earth, these indirect estimates show that 1989 to 2019 was very likely the warmest 30-year
period in more than 800 years; the most recent decade, 2010-2019, is the warmest decade in
the instrumental record so far (since 1850). A wide range of other observations provides a more
comprehensive picture of warming throughout the climate system. For example, the lower
atmosphere and the upper layers of the ocean have also warmed, snow and ice cover are
decreasing in the Northern Hemisphere, the Greenland ice sheet is shrinking, and sea level is
rising [Figure 1b]. These measurements are made with a variety of land-, ocean-, and space-
based monitoring systems, which gives added confidence in the reality of global-scale warming
of Earth’s climate.

Figure 1a. Earth’s global average

surface temperature has risen as

shown in this plot of combined

land and ocean measurements

from 1850 to 2019, derived from

three independent analyses of the

available data sets. The temperature

changes are relative to the global

average surface temperature of

1961−1990. Source: NOAA Climate.

gov; data from UK Met Office Hadley

Centre (maroon), US National

Aeronautics and Space Administration

Goddard Institute for Space Studies

(red), and US National Oceanic

and Atmospheric Administration

National Centers for Environmental

Information (orange).

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020 3

2 HOW DO SCIENTISTS KNOW THAT RECENT

CLIMATE CHANGEIS LARGELY CAUSES BY

HUMAN ACTIVITIES?
_____________________________________________________________

Scientists know that recent climate change is largely caused by human activities from an
understanding of basic physics, comparing observations with models, and fingerprinting

the detailed patterns of climate change caused by different human and natural influences.

Since the mid-1800s, scientists have known that CO2 is one of the main greenhouse gases of
importance to Earth’s energy balance. Direct measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere and in air
trapped in ice show that atmospheric CO2 increased by more than 40% from 1800 to 2019.
Measurements of different forms of carbon (isotopes, see Question 3) reveal that this increase is
due to human activities. Other greenhouse gases (notably methane and nitrous oxide) are also
increasing as a consequence of human activities. The observed global surface temperature rise
since 1900 is consistent with detailed calculations of the impacts of the observed increase in
atmospheric greenhouse gases (and other human-induced changes) on Earth’s energy balance.
Different influences on climate have different signatures in climate records. These unique
fingerprints are easier to see by probing beyond a single number (such as the average
temperature of Earth’s surface), and by looking instead at the geographical and seasonal
patterns of climate change. The observed patterns of surface warming, temperature changes
through the atmosphere, increases in ocean heat content, increases in atmospheric moisture,
sea level rise, and increased melting of land and sea ice also match the patterns scientists expect
to see due to human activities (see Question 5). The expected changes in climate are based on
our understanding of how greenhouse gases trap heat. Both this fundamental understanding of
the physics of greenhouse gases and pattern-based fingerprint studies show that natural causes
alone are inadequate to explain the recent observed changes in climate. Natural causes include
variations in the Sun’s output and in Earth’s orbit around the Sun, volcanic eruptions, and
internal fluctuations in the climate system (such as El Niño and La Niña). Calculations using
climate models (see info box, p. 20) have been used to simulate what would have happened to
global temperatures if only natural factors were influencing the climate system. These
simulations yield little surface warming, or even a slight cooling, over the 20th century and into
the 21st. Only when models include human influences on the composition of the atmosphere

are the resulting temperature changes consistent with observed changes.

 EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020

Q&A
3 CO2 IS ALREADY IN THE ATMOSPHERE

NATURALLY, SO WHY ARE EMISSIONS FROM

HUMAN ACTIVITY SIGNIFICANT?

____________________________________________________

Human activities have significantly disturbed the natural carbon cycle by extracting long-
buried fossil fuels and burning them for energy, thus releasing CO2 to the atmosphere.

In nature, CO2 is exchanged continually between the atmosphere, plants, and animals through
photosynthesis, respiration, and decomposition, and between the atmosphere and ocean
through gas exchange. A very small amount of CO2 (roughly 1% of the emission rate from fossil
fuel combustion) is also emitted in volcanic eruptions. This is balanced by an equivalent amount
that is removed by chemical weathering of rocks. The CO2 level in 2019 was more than 40%
higher than it was in the 19th century. Most of this CO2 increase has taken place since 1970,
about the time when global energy consumption accelerated. Measured decreases in the
fraction of other forms of carbon (the isotopes 14C and 13C) and a small decrease in
atmospheric oxygen concentration (observations of which have been available since 1990) show
that the rise in CO2 is largely from combustion of fossil fuels (which have low 13C fractions and
no 14C). Deforestation and other land use changes have also released carbon from the
biosphere (living world) where it normally resides for decades to centuries. The additional CO 2
from fossil fuel burning and deforestation has disturbed the balance of the carbon cycle,
because the natural processes that could restore the balance are too slow compared to the
rates at which human activities are adding CO2 to the atmosphere. As a result, a substantial
fraction of the CO2 emitted from human activities accumulates in the atmosphere, where some
of it will remain not just for decades or centuries, but for thousands of years. Comparison with
the CO2 levels measured in air extracted from ice cores indicates that the current concentrations
are substantially higher than they have been in at least 800,000 years (see Question 6).
 6 CLIMATE CHANGE

Q&
A
4 WHAT ROLE HAS THE SUN PLAYED IN
CLIMATE CHANGE IN RECENT DECADES?
___________________________________________

The Sun provides the primary source of energy driving Earth’s climate system, but its
variations have played very little role in the climate changes observed in recent decades.
Direct satellite measurements since the late 1970s show no net increase in the Sun’s out-
put, while at the same time global surface temperatures have increased [Figure 2].

For periods before the onset of satellite measurements, knowledge about solar changes is less
certain because the changes are inferred from indirect sources — including the number of
sunspots and the abundance of certain forms (isotopes) of carbon or beryllium atoms, whose
production rates in Earth’s atmosphere are influenced by variations in the Sun. There is evidence
that the 11-year solar cycle, during which the Sun’s energy output varies by roughly 0.1%, can
influence ozone concentrations, temperatures, and winds in the stratosphere (the layer in the
atmosphere above the troposphere, typically from 12 to 50km above earth’s surface, depending
on latitude and season). These stratospheric changes may have a small effect on surface climate
over the 11-year cycle. However, the available evidence does not indicate pronounced long-
term changes in the Sun’s output over the past century, during which time humaninduced
increases in CO2 concentrations have been the dominant influence on the long-term global
surface temperature increase. Further evidence that current warming is not a result of solar
changes can be found in the temperature trends at different altitudes in the atmosphere (see
Question 5).
 Figure 2. Measurements of the
Sun’s energy incident on Earth
show no net increase in solar
forcing during the past 40 years,
and therefore this cannot be
responsible for warming during
that period. The data show only
small periodic amplitude variations
associated with the Sun’s 11-year
cycle. Source: TSI data
from Physikalisch-
Meteorologisches
Observatorium Davos, Switzerland,
on the new VIRGO scale from 1978 to
mid-2018; temperature data for same
time period from the HadCRUT4
dataset, UK Met Office, Hadley Centre. 1359.5 1360.0
1360.5

EVIDENCE & CAUSES 2020

7
Q&A

5 What do changes in the vertical

structure of atmospheric temperature

—from the surface up to the

stratosphere—tell us about the

causes of recent climate change?

__________________________________________________________

The observed warming in the lower atmosphere and cooling in the upper atmosphere
provide us with key insights into the underlying causes of climate change and reveal that
natural factors alone cannot explain the observed changes.

In the early 1960s, results from mathematical/physical models of the climate system first showed that
human-induced increases in CO2 would be expected to lead to gradual warming of the lower
atmosphere (the troposphere) and cooling of higher levels of the atmosphere (the stratosphere). In
contrast, increases in the Sun’s output would warm both the troposphere and the full vertical
extent of the stratosphere. At that time, there was insufficient observational data to test this
prediction, but temperature measurements from weather balloons and satellites have since
confirmed these early forecasts. It is now known that the observed pattern of tropospheric warming and
stratospheric cooling over the past 40 years is broadly consistent with computer model simulations
that include increases in CO2 and decreases in stratospheric ozone, each caused by human
activities. The observed pattern is not consistent with purely natural changes in the Sun’s energy
output, volcanic activity, or natural climate variations such as El Niño and La Niña.

Despite this agreement between the global-scale patterns of modelled and observed atmospheric
temperature change, there are still some differences. The most noticeable differences are in the tropics,
where models currently show more warming in the troposphere than has been observed, and in the
Arctic, where the observed warming of the troposphere is greater than in most models.

8 Climate Change

Q&A
6 Climate is always changing. Why is

climate change of concern now?

__________________________________________________________

All major climate changes, including natural ones, are disruptive. Past climate changes led
to extinction of many species, population migrations, and pronounced changes in the land
surface and ocean circulation. The speed of the current climate change is faster than most of
the past events, making it more difficult for human societies and the natural world to adapt.

The largest global-scale climate variations in Earth’s recent geological past are the ice age cycles (see
infobox, p.B4), which are cold glacial periods followed by shorter warm periods [Figure 3]. The last few
of these natural cycles have recurred roughly every 100,000 years. They are mainly paced
by slow changes in Earth’s orbit, which alter the way the Sun’s energy is distributed with latitude and by
season on Earth. These orbital changes are very small over the last several hundred years, and alone are
not sufficient to cause the observed magnitude of change in temperature since the Industrial
Revolution, nor to act on the whole Earth. On ice-age timescales, these gradual orbital variations
have led to changes in the extent of ice sheets and in the abundance of CO2 and other greenhouse
gases, which in turn have amplified the initial temperature change.
Recent estimates of the increase in global average temperature since the end of the last ice age are 4 to
5 °C (7 to 9 °F). That change occurred over a period of about 7,000 years, starting 18,000 years ago. CO 2
has risen more than 40% in just the past 200 years, much of this since the 1970s, contributing to human
alteration of the planet’s energy budget that has so far warmed Earth by about 1 °C (1.8 °F). If the rise in
CO2 continues unchecked, warming of the same magnitude as the increase out of the ice age can be
expected by the end of this century or soon after. This speed of warming is more than ten
times that at the end of an ice age, the fastest known natural sustained change on a global scale.

7 Is the current level of atmospheric

CO2 concentration unprecedented

in Earth’s history?
_________________________________________________________________

The present level of atmospheric CO2 concentration is almost certainly unprecedented

in the past million years, during which time modern humans evolved and societies
developed. The atmospheric CO2 concentration was however higher in Earth’s more
distant past (many millions of years ago), at which time palaeoclimatic and geological
data indicate that temperatures and sea levels were also higher than they are today.

Measurements of air in ice cores show that for the past 800,000 years up until the
20th century, the atmospheric CO2 concentration stayed within the range 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm), making the recent
rapid rise to more than 400 ppm over 200 years particularly remarkable [figure 3]. During the glacial cycles
of the past 800,000 years both CO2 and methane have acted as important amplifiers of the climate changes
triggered by variations in Earth’s orbit around the Sun. As Earth warmed from the last ice age, temperature

continued

Evidence & Causes 2020

closely with changes in temperature (in orange). As the record shows, the recent
Q&A increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is unprecedented in the past 800,000
years. Atmospheric CO2 concentration surpassed 400 ppm in 2016, and the
average concentration in 2019 was more than 411 ppm. Source: Based on figure
Figure 3. Data from ice cores have
by Jeremy Shakun, data from Lüthi et al., 2008 and Jouzel et al., 2007
been used to reconstruct Antarctic
temperatures and atmospheric CO2
concentrations over the past
800,000 years. Temperature is
based on measurements of the
isotopic content of water in the
Dome C ice core. CO2 is measured
in air trapped in ice, and is a
composite of the Dome C and
Vostok ice core. The current CO2
concentration (blue dot) is from
atmospheric measurements. The
cyclical pattern of temperature
variations constitutes the ice age/
interglacial cycles. During these
cycles, changes in CO2
concentrations (in blue) track
 temperature was probably about 10°C warmer than today. Under
those conditions, Earth had little ice, and sea level was at least 60
metres higher than current levels.

10 CLIMATE CHANGE
8 IS THERE A POINT AT WHICH ADDING MORE CO2 WILL NOT
CAUSE FURTHERWARMING?
________________________________________

and CO2 started to rise at No. Adding more CO2 to the atmosphere will cause surface
approximately the same time temperatures to continue to increase. As the atmospheric
and continued to rise in concentrations of CO2 increase, the addition of extra CO2
tandem from about 18,000 becomes progressively less effective at trapping Earth’s energy,
to 11,000 years ago. Changes but surface temperature will still rise.
in ocean temperature, Our understanding of the physics by which CO2 affects Earth’s
circulation, chemistry, and energy balance is confirmed by laboratory measurements, as well
biology caused CO2 to be as by detailed satellite and surface observations of the emission
released to the atmosphere, and absorption of infrared energy by the atmosphere. Greenhouse
which combined with other gases absorb some of the infrared energy that Earth emits in so-
feedbacks to push Earth into called bands of stronger absorption that occur at certain
an even warmer state. wavelengths. Different gases absorb energy at different
For earlier geological times, wavelengths. CO2 has its strongest heat-trapping band centred at
CO2 concentrations and a wavelength of 15 micrometres (millionths of a metre), with
temperatures have been absorption that spreads out a few micrometres on either side.
inferred from less direct There are also many weaker absorption bands. As CO2
methods. Those suggest that concentrations increase, the absorption at the centre of the strong
the concentration of CO2 last band is already so intense that it plays little role in causing
approached 400 ppm about 3 additional warming. However, more energy is absorbed in the
to 5 million years ago, a weaker bands and away from the centre of the strong band,
period when global average causing the surface and lower atmosphere to warm further.
surface temperature is
estimated to have been
about 2 to 3.5°C higher than
in the pre-industrial period.
At 50 million years ago, CO2
may have reached 1000 ppm,
and global average

Even as CO2 is rising steadily in the atmosphere, leading to gradual

warming of Earth’s surface, many natural factors are modulating
this long-term warming. Large volcanic eruptions increase the
number of small particles in the stratosphere. These particles
reflect sunlight, leading to short-term surface cooling lasting
typically two to three years, followed by a slow recovery. Ocean
circulation and mixing vary naturally on many time scales, causing
variations in sea surface human-induced changes in the atmospheric levels of CO2 and
temperatures as well as other greenhouse gases.
changes in the rate at which
heat is transported to
greater depths. For example, Even as CO2 is rising steadily in the atmosphere, leading to gradual
the tropical Pacific swings warming of Earth’s surface, many natural factors are modulating
between warm El Niño and this long-term warming. Large volcanic eruptions increase the
cooler La Niña events on number of small particles in the stratosphere. These particles
timescales of two to seven reflect sunlight, leading to short-term surface cooling lasting
years. Scientists study many typically two to three years, followed by a slow recovery. Ocean
different types of climate circulation and mixing vary naturally on many time scales, causing
variations, such as those on variations in sea surface temperatures as well as changes in the
decadal and multi-decadal rate at which heat is transported to greater depths. For example,
timescales in the Pacific and the tropical Pacific swings between warm El Niño and cooler La
North Atlantic Oceans. Each Niña events on timescales of two to seven years. Scientists study
type of variation has its own many different types of climate variations, such as those on
unique characteristics. These decadal and multi-decadal timescales in the Pacific and North
oceanic variations are Atlantic Oceans. Each type of variation has its own unique
associated with significant characteristics. These oceanic variations are associated with
regional and global shifts in significant regional and global shifts in temperature and rainfall
temperature and rainfall patterns that are evident in the observations.
patterns that are evident in
the observations. Warming Warming from decade to decade can also be affected by human
from decade to decade can factors such as variations in emissions of greenhouse gases and
also be affected by human aerosols (airborne particles that can have both warming and
factors such as variations in cooling effects) from coal-fired power plants and other pollution
emissions of greenhouse sources.
gases and aerosols (airborne These variations in the temperature trend are clearly evident in
particles that can have both the observed temperature record [Figure 4]. Short-term natural
warming and cooling effects) climate variations could also affect the long-term human-induced
from coal-fired power climate change signal and vice-versa, because climate variations
on different space and timescales can interact with one another. It
is partly for this reason that climate change projections are made
Q using climate models (see infobox, p.20) that can account for
many different types of climate variations and their interactions.
&A Reliable inferences about human-induced climate change must be
made with a longer view, using records that cover many decades.
9 DOES THE RATE OF
WARMING VARY FROM

ONE DECADE TO
ANOTHER?
________________________
_______

Evidence & Causes 2020

Yes. The observed warming
rate has varied from year to
year, decade to decade, and
11
place to place, as is expected
from our understanding of
the climate system. These
shorterterm variations are
mostly due to natural causes,
and do not contradict our
fundamental understanding
that the long-term warming
trend is primarily due to
 EARLY 2010S MEAN THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS NO
LONGER

HAPPENING?
________________________________________

No. After the very warm year 1998 that followed the strong 1997-
98 El Niño, the increase in average surface temperature slowed
relative to the previous decade of rapid temperature increases.
Despite the slower rate of warming, the 2000s were warmer than
the 1990s. The limited period of slower warming ended with a
dramatic jump to warmer temperatures between 2014 and 2015,
with all the years from 2015-2019 warmer than any preceding year
in the instrumental record. A short-term slowdown in the warming
of Earth’s surface does not invalidate our understanding of long-
term changes in global temperature arising from human-induced
changes in greenhouse gases.

Decades of slow warming as well as decades of accelerated

warming occur naturally in the climate system. Decades that are
cold or warm compared to the long-term trend are seen in the
observations of the past 150 years and are also captured by
climate models. Because the atmosphere stores very little heat,
surface temperatures can be rapidly affected by heat uptake
elsewhere in the climate system and by changes in external
influences on climate (such as particles formed from material
lofted high into the atmosphere from volcanic eruptions).

More than 90% of the heat added to the Earth system in recent
decades has been absorbed by the oceans and penetrates only
slowly into deep water. A faster rate of heat penetration into the
deeper ocean will slow the warming seen at the surface and in the
atmosphere, but by itself it will not change the long-term warming
that will occur from a given amount of CO2. For example, recent
studies show that some heat comes out of the ocean into the
atmosphere during warm El Niño events, and more heat
penetrates to ocean depths in cold La Niñas. Such changes occur
repeatedly over timescales of decades and longer. An example is
the major El Niño event in 1997–98 when the globally averaged air
temperature soared to the highest level in the 20th century as the
ocean lost heat to the atmosphere, mainly by evaporation.

Even during the slowdown in the rise of average surface

temperature, a longer-term warming trend was still evident (see
Figure 4). Over that period, for example, record heatwaves were
documented in Europe (summer 2003), in Russia (summer 2010),
in the USA (July 2012), and in Australia (January 2013). Each of the
last four decades was warmer than any previous decade since
widespread thermometer measurements were introduced in the
1850s. The continuing effects of the warming climate are seen in
the increasing trends in ocean heat content and sea level, as well
as in the continued melting of Arctic sea ice, glaciers and the
Q&A Greenland ice sheet

10 DID THE
SLOWDOWN OF WARMING
DURING THE 2000S TO
 The Basics of
Climate Change
Greenhouse gases affect Earth’s energy balance and climate.
The Sun serves as the primary energy source for Earth’s climate.
Some of the incoming sunlight is reflected directly back into space,
especially by bright surfaces such as ice and clouds, and the rest is
absorbed by the surface and the atmosphere. Much of this
absorbed solar energy is re-emitted as heat (longwave or infrared
radiation). The atmosphere in turn absorbs and re-radiates heat,
some of which escapes to space. Any disturbance to this balance
of incoming and outgoing energy will affect the climate. For
example, small changes in the output of energy from the Sun will
affect this balance directly.

If all heat energy emitted from the surface passed through the
atmosphere directly into space, Earth’s average surface
temperature would be tens of degrees colder than today.
Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, including water vapour,
carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, act to make the
surface much warmer than this because they absorb and emit heat
energy in all directions (including downwards), keeping Earth’s
surface and lower atmosphere warm [Figure B1]. Without this
greenhouse effect, life as we know it could not have evolved on
our planet. Adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere
makes it even more effective at preventing heat from escaping
into space. When the energy leaving is less than the energy
entering, Earth warms until a new balance is established.
figure b1. Greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, including water
vapour, carbon dioxide, methane,
and nitrous oxide, absorb heat
energy and emit it in all directions
(including downwards), keeping
Earth’s surface and lower
atmosphere warm. Adding more
greenhouse gases to the
atmosphere enhances the effect,
making Earth’s surface and lower
atmosphere even warmer. Image
based on a figure from US
Environmental Protection Agency.
Evidence & Causes 2020 B1
B2 Climate Change
BASICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Greenhouse gases emitted by human activities alter Earth’s energy

balance and thus its climate. Humans also affect climate by
changing the nature of the land surfaces (for example by clearing
forests for farming) and through the emission of pollutants that
affect the amount and type of particles in the atmosphere.

Scientists have determined that, when all human and natural

factors are considered, Earth’s climate balance has been altered
towards warming, with the biggest contributor being increases in
CO2.

Human activities have added greenhouse gases to the

atmosphere.

The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and

nitrous oxide have increased significantly since the Industrial
Revolution began. In the case of carbon dioxide, the average
concentration measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii
has risen from 316 parts per million (ppm)1 in 1959 (the first full
year of data available) to more than 411 ppm in 2019 [Figure B2].
The same rates of increase have since been recorded at numerous
other stations worldwide. Since preindustrial times, the
atmospheric concentration of CO2 has increased by over 40%,
methane has increased by more than 150%, and nitrous oxide has
increased by roughly 20%. More than half of the increase in CO2
has occurred since 1970. Increases in all three gases contribute to
warming of Earth, with the increase in CO2 playing the largest role.
See page B3 to learn about the sources of human emitted
greenhouse gases.

Scientists have examined greenhouse gases in the context of the

past. Analysis of air trapped inside ice that has been accumulating
Figure B2. Measurements of over time in Antarctica shows that the CO2
atmospheric CO2 since 1958
from the Mauna Loa
Observatory in Hawaii (black)
and from the South Pole
(red) show a steady annual
increase in atmospheric CO2
concentration. The
measurements are made at
remote places like these
because they are not greatly
influenced by local
processes, so therefore they
are representative of the
background atmosphere. The
small up-and-down saw-
tooth pattern reflects
seasonal changes in the
release and uptake of CO2 by
[Link]: Scripps CO2
Program
concentration began to increase significantly in the 19th century
[Figure B3], after staying in the range of 260 to 280 ppm for the
previous 10,000 years. Ice core records extending back 800,000
years show that during that time, CO2 concentrations remained
within the range of 170 to 300 ppm throughout many “ice age”
cycles—see infobox, pg. B4 to learn about the ice ages—and no
concentration above 300 ppm is seen in ice core records until the
past 200 years.

BASICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

LEARN ABOUT THE SOURCES OF HUMAN-EMITTED GREENHOUSE

GASES:
Figure B3. CO2 variations during the
past 1,000 years, obtained from
analysis of air trapped in an ice core
extracted from Antarctica (red
squares), show a sharp rise in
■ Carbon dioxide (CO2 ) has both ■ Methane (CH4 ) has both human atmospheric CO2 starting in the late
natural and human sources, but and natural sources, and levels 19th century. Modern atmospheric
CO2 levels are increasing primarily have risen measurements from Mauna Loa are
significantly since because of the combustion of fossil pre- superimposed in gray. Source:
industrial times due to human fuels, cement production, defor- figure by Eric Wolff, data from
activities such as raising livestock, estation (which reduces the Etheridge et al., 1996; MacFarling
CO2 growing paddy rice, filling landfills, taken up by trees and Meure et al., 2006; Scripps CO2
Program
increases the and using natural gas (which is CO2
released by decomposition of