5.
1 Intro to Stastical Probability
Law of Large Numbers after trials the relative
many
frequency of outcomes will approach their theoretical
orobability
probability of A not happening P A 1 PCA
complement rule
chance behavior is not predictable in the short term
it is more evident in the
though longterm in the sho
predict the proportion of times we'dget
run_the
in the
long run
probabilityproportionis unpredictable
since dice rolls are independentprevious rolls have no impact
on the of the next roll
probability
5 2 Unions intersections addition rule andmutualexclusiv
PGA PCB PCA P AAB
PLAUB P AUB
Yaffa [Link] B
PLANB PCA PCB PLAUB
e and PCAUB P A PCB PLAN B
Yutually
mutually exclusive disjoint intersection
no
PLANB
for mutuallyexclusiveeventsonly
PLAUB PCA PCB
Example 100 students enrollments is he sample space Pls
139were takinghistory
141 weretalkingEnglish 25 198845g
1 7 were talkingHistorydMath 4 6
16weretakingall 3subjects
6315 4 91 8fm fEigfsth
18 11 20
H M
7 10 were none of subjects to
g
5 3 conditions independence tree
diagrams
PCA B probabilityof A given that B
alreadyoccurred
P A B PLANB PCB
s divide the A B P AIB 48 0.25
given
given
by g so
two events are independent if
A B
knowing the outcome
of one event does not affect the that the other
event will occur probability
if two events AREindependent then PLANB P A PCB
if two events are NOT independent then PLANB P AIB PLA
that one
[Link] c4sIhfYf85sa8fEtY8tf'Indeepoffenetent Trigg
Tree Diagram
using notes example
ey t 8 5 91,8 9 9 4 80.638
b P 5 1 P s 1 0.638 0.362
0.20 died
90.69
d PCA 5 PC 9,5 0.2070.31 0.097
passed 0.638
e PA 5 P 5 0.2011069 0.381
Passed 0.362
0.80 studied0.72 f PA 5 Plap 10.1884 228 0.619
[Link]
5 4 successive events atleastone
sampling o replacement
w
successive events occur one after another in a repeated
ashion A happens 20 of the
time What is the likelyhood
Probabilityof five heads in a row
sthatnfhaekfengsr [Link]
P HAHAHAHAH [Link].[Link].0
1 P A 0.20 0.80
10 5 0.03 Plat least once 1 0.8015
P atleast one 1 P makes none 0.6723