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Chapter 14
Climate Change?

Climate change is a change in the average temperature and cycles of weather over a long period of time.

Since 1880, scientists have kept thermometer-based records of the global surface temperature.
What is happening to the global temperature? The planet is becoming warmer; the climate is changing.

1.5
Temperature Anomaly Data source: NASA's G
Institute for Space Stu
(°C)
1.0

0.5

-0.5
1880
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1936
1944
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1984
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2016

Year
Why Is Climate Change a Problem?
Over millions of years, species become adapted to survive in the conditions in which they live. A
stable climate supports this process and allows living things to thrive. If the climate changes quickly,
organisms don’t have enough time to adapt to new conditions and may no longer be able to survive.

Climate change disrupts weather patterns and causes extreme weather events to become more
common. These include hurricane activity, droughts and floods. As the global temperature has
increased, so has the number of reported natural disasters.

Rising temperatures are causing sea levels to increase. The rising water can cover coastal areas,
destroying habitats and displacing whole populations from low-lying areas.

Rising sea levels are driven by two main processes:

1. Ice Melt: When the atmosphere and ocean get warmer, ice sheets and glaciers melt, resulting in
the addition of fresh water to the ocean.
2. Thermal Expansion: As ocean water gets warmer, it expands, causing sea levels to rise.

The increase in global temperatures is causing a reduction in sea ice. This causes problems for
animals that depend on the ice to hunt, mate and sleep.

The bright surface of the ice reflects 80% of the sunlight that hits it back into space. This keeps
the polar regions cool and moderates the global climate.
When the area of sea ice is reduced, less sunlight is reflected back into space. This causes more
ocean warming and reduces the sea ice even further.
This feedback drives faster climate change.

No matter how fast we act, the global temperature is set to continue rising as a result of
greenhouse gases that are already in the atmosphere. The problems that we are already experiencing are
going to worsen.
Acting quickly to keep the temperature rise to minimum is extremely important for humans and
wildlife.
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What Causes Climate Change?

Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and water vapour (H2O) are greenhouse gases that are
found in the atmosphere. Energy travels from the Sun to the Earth as short wave radiation. It does not
interact strongly with the greenhouse gas molecules so it reaches the Earth’s surface.

The Earth’s surface emits long wavelength radiation. This does interact with the greenhouse gas
molecules. The greenhouse gas molecules absorb some of the energy, trapping it in the atmosphere.
This process keeps the Earth warm and is essential for life.

The higher the proportion of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the more radiation is absorbed.
This causes a rise in the temperature of the Earth and is known as the greenhouse effect. This increase in
temperature drives climate change.
However, the rapid climate change we are experiencing now is due to three main human
activities: Climate change can be caused gradually by natural processes or suddenly by large events,
such as a massive meteorite strike or volcanic activity.

 Burning fossil fuels for heating and cooking, generating electricity and powering vehicles
releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
 Deforestation (destruction of forests) releases carbon dioxide and reduces the number of trees
able to capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
 Reduction of biodiversity creates an unstable ecosystem. Nature loss leads to ecosystems that
are less able to capture carbon from the atmosphere and less resilient to rising temperatures

Who Causes Climate Change?

The 50 least developed countries are thought to have contributed 1% of the greenhouse gases
that have caused global warming. The USA, the EU and China alone have contributed around 60%.

Who Does Climate Change Affect?

In the long term, everyone will feel the effects of climate change. However, some people are
currently more affected than others.
In most cases, the wealth of prosperous countries has come from activities which contribute to
greenhouse gas emissions. This wealth allows these countries to protect themselves from the effects of
climate change.
Poorer countries are less able to adapt to climate change and therefore suffer the most from its
effects. They are also less able to develop because they need to focus on addressing the challenges
caused by climate change.
The countries who have contributed the least to the climate crisis are the ones who are
affected the most.

Social Justice
Justice is the concept of fairness.
Social justice relates to fairness within a society.
The idea of social justice is that people should have equal access to wealth, health, opportunities
and privileges within a society. All humans should have the right to a certain standard of living,
including a healthy diet, access to clean water, shelter, clothing, education and healthcare.
The people most likely to be left behind by development are those that face inequalities.
Those that are most affected have intersecting inequalities. This means that they may face
exclusion or discrimination because they fall into multiple disadvantaged groups, for example, Black
women, disabled LGBTQ+ people or poor children.

Climate Justice
The impacts of climate change affect disadvantaged groups of people the most. The effect of
climate change on these groups needs to be recognised and addressed.
Climate justice means looking at the climate crisis from the perspective of social justice.
Solutions need to not only curb climate change; they need to protect and empower the most vulnerable
groups of people too.
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We have the responsibility to consider the most vulnerable when planning climate action.
Remember, these groups of people contribute to climate change the least. This means putting the people
and communities that are most vulnerable to the impact of climate change at the heart of development.
Climate solutions will not work if we do not address social justice issues. For example, if we do
not address poverty, then unsustainable lifestyles will continue to damage ecosystems and we will fail to
curb climate change.

Who Can Fix It?

Governments can make laws and policies that reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions.
Businesses can change their processes to run more sustainably.
We can all make choices in our own lives that reduce our carbon footprint (the impact our
actions and purchases have on climate change).
We can also use our voices to let businesses and governments know that we want them to act
quickly to reduce their impact on climate change.

New Opportunities
The transition to a low-carbon economy in the years ahead brings with it many opportunities.
Transitioning to low-carbon economies will provide lots of opportunity for innovation.

Innovation is the process of turning an idea into a solution that solves a problem.

There will be a need for people leaving education to do things differently, to come up with new
ideas for products and technologies and to explore new conservation methods. These opportunities are
exciting!
New job sectors will be created and new skills will be valued in the jobs market. In the future,
you may be applying for jobs that don’t even exist yet!

COP26
197 countries (parties) have signed up to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC).
In 2015, at COP21 in Paris, the nations signed an agreement that set out an ambitious plan to
tackle climate change. In the Paris Agreement, nations agreed to act together to restrict global
temperature increases to 2°C and begin efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.
To do this we will need to reach ‘net zero’ by 2050. This means that any carbon emissions will need to
be balanced by removing carbon dioxide from the air.

The Paris Agreement instructed governments to renew their commitment to lowering their
emissions every five years, each time becoming more ambitious. New Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDCs) are due to be set by countries at COP26, so it is an important moment for the
planet.
Global carbon dioxide emissions continued to rise after The Paris Agreement, and are now 62%
higher than they were in 1990.
Global net CO2 emissions need to fall by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 to limit global
warming to 1.5°C.

Global
60 CO2 Emissions expected carbon
emissions based on
50 (Gt) change current
needed commitments
40
30
2030 goal
20
10

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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What Are the Effects of Climate Change?

• A rapidly warming planet poses an existential threat to all life on earth. Just how bad it gets depends on
how quickly we act.

• Climate change is our planet’s greatest existential threat. If we don’t limit greenhouse gas emissions
from the burning of fossil fuels, the consequences of rising global temperatures include massive crop
and fishery collapse, the disappearance of hundreds of thousands of species, and entire communities
becoming uninhabitable. While these outcomes may still be avoidable, climate change is already causing
suffering and death. From raging wildfires and supercharged storms, its compounding effects can be felt
today, outside our own windows.
• Understanding these impacts can help us prepare for what’s here, what’s avoidable, and what’s yet to
come, and to better prepare and protect all communities. Even though everyone is or will be affected by
climate change, those living in the world’s poorest countries—which have contributed least to the
problem—are the most climate-vulnerable. They have the fewest financial resources to respond to crises
or adapt, and they’re closely dependent on a healthy, thriving natural world for food and income.
Similarly, in the United States, it is most often low-income communities and communities of color that
are on the frontlines of climate impacts. And because climate change and rising inequality are
interconnected crises, decision makers must take action to combat both—and all of us must fight for
climate justice. Here’s what you need to know about what we’re up against.
Effects of Climate Change on Weather

• As global temperatures climb, widespread shifts in weather systems occur, making events
like droughts, hurricanes, and floods more intense and unpredictable. Extreme weather events that may
have hit just once in our grandparents’ lifetimes are becoming more common in ours. However, not
every place will experience the same effects: Climate change may cause severe drought in one region
while making floods more likely in another.

• Already, the planet has warmed 1.1 degrees Celsius (1.9 degrees Fahrenheit) since the preindustrial era
began 250 years ago. And scientists warn it could reach a worst-case scenario of 4 degrees Celsius (7.2
degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100 if we fail to tackle the causes of climate change—namely, the burning
of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas).
• Higher average temperatures

• This change in global average temperature—seemingly small but consequential and climbing—means
that, each summer, we are likely to experience increasingly sweltering heat waves. Even local news
meteorologists are starting to connect strings of record-breaking days to new long-term trends, which are
especially problematic in regions where infrastructure and housing have not been built with intensifying
heat in mind. And heat waves aren’t just uncomfortable—they’re the leading cause of weather-related
fatalities in the United States.

• Longer-lasting droughts

• Hotter temperatures increase the rate at which water evaporates from the air, leading to more severe and
pervasive droughts. Already, climate change has pushed the American West into a severe
“megadrought”—the driest 22-year stretch recorded in at least 1,200 years —shrinking drinking water
supplies, withering crops, and making forests more susceptible to insect infestations. Drought can also
create a positive feedback loop in which drier soil and less plant cover cause even faster evaporation.

• More intense wildfires

• This drier, hotter climate also creates conditions that fuel more vicious wildfire seasons—with fires that
spread faster and burn longer—putting millions of additional lives and homes at risk. The number of
large wildfires doubled between 1984 and 2015 in the western United States. And in California alone,
the annual area burned by wildfires increased 500 percent between 1972 and 2018.

• Stronger storms

• Warmer air also holds more moisture, making tropical cyclones wetter, stronger, and more capable of
rapidly intensifying. In the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
scientists found that daily rainfall during extreme precipitation events would increase by about 7 percent
for each degree Celsius of global warming, increasing the dangers of flooding. The frequency of severe
Category 4 and 5 hurricanes is also expected to increase. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey, a devastating
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Category 4 storm, dumped a record 275 trillion pounds of rain and resulted in dozens of deaths in the
Houston area.

Effects of Climate Change on the Environment

• From the poles to the tropics, climate change is disrupting ecosystems. Even a seemingly slight shift in
temperature can cause dramatic changes that ripple through food webs and the environment.

• Melting sea ice

• The effects of climate change are most apparent in the world’s coldest regions—the poles. The Arctic is
heating up twice as fast as anywhere else on earth, leading to the rapid melting of glaciers and polar ice
sheets, where a massive amount of water is stored. As sea ice melts, darker ocean waters that absorb
more sunlight become exposed, creating a positive feedback loop that speeds up the melting process. In
just 15 years, the Arctic could be entirely ice-free in the summer.

• Sea level rise

• Scientists predict that melting sea ice and glaciers, as well as the fact that warmer water expands in
volume, could cause sea levels to rise as much as 3.61 feet by the end of the century, should we fail to
curb emissions. The extent (and pace) of this change would devastate low-lying regions, including island
nations and densely populated coastal cities like New York City and Mumbai.

• But sea level rise at far lower levels is still costly, dangerous, and disruptive. Scientists predict that the
United States will see a foot of sea level rise by 2050, which will regularly damage infrastructure, like
roads, sewage treatment plants, and even power plants. Beaches that families have grown up
visiting may be gone by the end of the century. Sea level rise also harms the environment, as
encroaching seawater can both erode coastal ecosystems and invade freshwater inland aquifers , which
we rely on for agriculture and drinking water. Saltwater incursion is already reshaping life in nations
like Bangladesh, where one-quarter of the lands lie less than 7 feet above sea level.
• Flooding

• In addition to coastal flooding caused by sea level rise, climate change influences the factors that result
in inland and urban flooding: snowmelt and heavy rain. As global warming continues to both exacerbate
sea level rise and extreme weather, our nation’s floodplains are expected to grow by approximately 45
percent by 2100. In 2022, deadly flooding in Pakistan—which inundated as much as a third of the
country—resulted from torrential rains mixed with melting glaciers and snow.

• Warmer ocean waters and marine heat waves

• Oceans are taking the brunt of our climate crisis. Covering more than 70 percent of the planet’s surface,
oceans absorb 93 percent of all the heat that’s trapped by greenhouse gases and up to 30 percent of all
the carbon dioxide emitted from burning fossil fuels.

• Temperature-sensitive fish and other marine life are already changing migration patterns toward cooler
and deeper waters to survive, sending food webs and important commercial fisheries into disarray. And
the frequency of marine heat waves has increased by more than a third. These spikes have led to mass
die-offs of plankton and marine mammals.

• To make matters worse, the elevated absorption of carbon dioxide by the ocean leads to its gradual
acidification, which alters the fundamental chemical makeup of the water and threatens marine life that
has evolved to live in a narrow pH band. Animals like corals, oysters, and mussels will likely feel these
effects first, as acidification disrupts the calcification process required to build their shells.
• Ecosystem stressors

• Land-based ecosystems—from old-growth forests to savannahs to tropical rainforests—are faring no

better. Climate change is likely to increase outbreaks of pests, invasive species, and pathogen
infections in forests. It’s changing the kinds of vegetation that can thrive in a given region and disrupting
the life cycles of wildlife, all of which is changing the composition of ecosystems and making them less
resilient to stressors. While ecosystems have the capacity to adapt, many are reaching the hard limits of
that natural capacity. More repercussions will follow as temperatures rise.

• Climate change appears to be triggering a series of cascading ecological changes that we can neither
fully predict nor, once they have enough momentum, fully stop. This ecosystem destabilization may be
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most apparent when it comes to keystone species that have an outsize- role in holding up an ecosystem’s
structure.

Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture

• Less predictable growing seasons
• In a warming world, farming crops is more unpredictable—and livestock, which are sensitive to extreme
weather, become harder to raise. Climate change shifts precipitation patterns, causing unpredictable
floods and longer-lasting droughts. More frequent and severe hurricanes can devastate an entire season’s
worth of crops. Meanwhile, the dynamics of pests, pathogens, and invasive species —all of which are
costly for farmers to manage—are also expected to become harder to predict. This is bad news, given
that most of the world’s farms are small and family-run. One bad drought or flood could decimate an
entire season’s crop or herd. For example, in June 2022, a triple-digit heat wave in Kansas wiped
out thousands of cows. While the regenerative agriculture movement is empowering rural communities
to make their lands more resilient to climate change, unfortunately, not all communities can equitably
access the support services that can help them embrace these more sustainable farming tactics.
• Reduced soil health

• Healthy soil has good moisture and mineral content and is teeming with bugs, bacteria, fungi, and
microbes that in turn contribute to healthy crops. But climate change, particularly extreme heat and
changes in precipitation, can degrade soil quality. These impacts are exacerbated in areas where
industrial, chemical-dependent monoculture farming has made soil and crops less able to withstand
environmental changes.

• Food shortages

• Ultimately, impacts to our agricultural systems pose a direct threat to the global food supply. And food
shortages and price hikes driven by climate change will not affect everyone equally: Wealthier people
will continue to have more options for accessing food, while potentially billions of others will be
plummeted into food insecurity—adding to the billions that already have moderate or severe
difficulty getting enough to eat.

Effects of Climate Change on Animals

• It’s about far more than just the polar bears: Half of all animal species in the world’s
most biodiverse places, like the Amazon rainforest and the Galapagos Islands, are at risk of extinction
from climate change. And climate change is threatening species that are already suffering from the
biodiversity crisis, which is driven primarily by changes in land and ocean use (like converting wild
places to farmland) and direct exploitation of species (like overfishing and wildlife trade). With species
already in rough shape—more than 500,000 species have insufficient habitat for long-term survival—
unchecked climate change is poised to push millions over the edge.

• Climate change rapidly and fundamentally alters (or in some cases, destroys) the habitat that wildlife
have incrementally adapted to over millennia. This is especially harmful for species’ habitats that are
currently under threat from other causes. Ice-dependent mammals like walruses and penguins, for
example, won’t fare well as ice sheets shrink. Rapid shifts in ocean temperatures stress the algae that
nourishes coral reefs, causing reefs to starve—an increasingly common phenomenon known as coral
bleaching. Disappearing wetlands in the Midwest’s Prairie Pothole Region means the loss of watering
holes and breeding grounds for millions of migratory birds. (Many species are now struggling to survive,
as more than 85 percent of wetlands have been lost since 1700). And sea level rise will inundate or erode
away many coastal habitats, where hundreds of species of birds, invertebrates, and other marine species
live.

• Many species’ behaviors—mating, feeding, migration—are closely tied to subtle seasonal shifts, as
in temperature, precipitation level, and foliage. In some cases, changes to the environment are happening
quicker than species are able to adapt. When the types and quantity of plant life change across a region,
or when certain species bloom or hatch earlier or later than in the past, it impacts food and water
supplies and reverberates up food chains.

Effects of Climate Change on Humans

• Ultimately, the way climate change impacts weather, the environment, animals, and agriculture affects
humanity as well. But there’s more. Around the world, our ways of life—from how we get our food to
the industries around which our economies are based—have all developed in the context of relatively
stable climates. As global warming shakes this foundation, it promises to alter the very fabric of society.
At worst, this could lead to widespread famine, disease, war, displacement, injury, and death. For many
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around the world, this grim forecast is already their reality. In this way, climate change poses an
existential threat to all human life.

• Human health

• Climate change worsens air quality. It increases exposure to hazardous wildfire smoke and ozone smog
triggered by warmer conditions, both of which harm our health, particularly for those with pre-existing
illnesses like asthma or heart disease.

• Insect-borne diseases like malaria and Zika become more prevalent in a warming world as their carriers
are able to exist in more regions or thrive for longer seasons. In the past 30 years, the incidence of Lyme
disease from ticks has nearly doubled in the United States. Thousands of people face injury, illness, and
death every year from more frequent or more intense extreme weather events. At a 2-degree Celsius
rise in global average temperature, an estimated one billion people will face heat stress risk. In the
summer of 2022 alone, thousands died in record-shattering heat waves across Europe. Weeks later,
dozens were killed by record-breaking urban flooding in the United States and Korea—and more than
1,500 people perished in the flooding in Pakistan, where resulting stagnant water and unsanitary
conditions threaten even more.

• The effects of climate change—and the looming threat of what’s yet to come—take a significant toll
on mental health too. One recent study (the largest of its kind to date) surveyed 10,000 young people
from 10 different countries. Forty-five percent of respondents said that their feelings about climate
change, varying from anxiety to powerlessness to anger, impacted their daily lives.

• Worsening inequity

• The climate crisis exacerbates existing inequities . Though wealthy nations, such as the United States,
have emitted the lion’s share of historical greenhouse gas emissions, it’s developing countries that may
lack the resources to adapt and will now bear the brunt of the climate crisis. In some cases, low-lying
island nations—like many in the Pacific—may cease to exist before developed economies make
meaningful reductions to their carbon emissions.

• Even within wealthier nations, disparities will continue to grow between those rich enough to shield
themselves from the realities of climate change and those who cannot. Those with ample resources will
not be displaced from their homes by wars over food or water—at least not right away. They will have
homes with cool air during heat waves and be able to easily evacuate when a hurricane is headed their
way. They will be able to buy increasingly expensive food and access treatment for respiratory illness
caused by wildfire smoke. Billions of others can’t—and are paying the highest price for climate
pollution they did not produce.

• Hurricane Katrina, for example, displaced more than one million people around the Gulf Coast. But
in New Orleans, where redlining practices promoted racial and economic segregation, the city’s more
affluent areas tended to be located on higher ground—and those residents were able to return and rebuild
much faster than others.
• Displacement

• Climate change will drive displacement due to impacts like food and water scarcities, sea level rise, and
economic instability. It’s already happening. The United Nations Global Compact on
Refugees recognizes that “climate, environmental degradation and disasters increasingly interact with
the drivers of refugee movements.” Again, communities with the fewest resources—including those
facing political instability and poverty—will feel the effects first and most devastatingly.

• Economic impacts

• According to the 2018 National Climate Assessment , unless action is taken, climate change will cost the
U.S. economy as much as $500 billion per year by the end of the century. And that doesn’t even include
its enormous impacts on human health. Entire local industries—from commercial fishing to tourism to
husbandry—are at risk of collapsing, along with the economic support they provide.

• Recovering from the destruction wrought by extreme weather like hurricanes, flash floods, and wildfires
is also getting more expensive every year. In 2021, the price tag of weather disasters in the United States
totaled $145 billion—the third-costliest year on record, including a number of billion-dollar weather
events.
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Future Effects of Climate Change

• The first wave of impacts can already be felt in our communities and seen on the nightly news. In the
near future, between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause an additional 250,000 deaths
per year from things like malnutrition, insect-borne diseases, and heat stress. And the World Bank
estimates that climate change could displace more than 140 million people within their home countries
in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America by 2050.

• But the degree to which the climate crisis upends our lives depends on whether global leaders decide to
chart a different course. If we fail to curb greenhouse gas emissions, scientists predict a catastrophic 4.3
degrees Celsius, (or around 8 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming by the end of the century. What would a
world that warm look like? Wars over water. Crowded hospitals to contend with spreading disease.
Collapsed fisheries. Dead coral reefs. Even more lethal heat waves. These are just some of the impacts
predicted by climate scientists.
• Climate mitigation, or our ability to reverse climate change and undo its widespread effects, hinges on
the successful enactment of policies that yield deep cuts to carbon pollution, end our dependence on
dangerous fossil fuels and the deadly air pollution they generate, and prioritize the people and
ecosystems on the frontlines. And these actions must be taken quickly in order to ensure a healthier
present day and future. In one of its latest reports, the IPCC presented its most optimistic emissions
scenario, in which the world only briefly surpasses 1.5 degrees of warming but sequestration measures
cause it to dip back below by 2100. Climate adaptation, a term that refers to coping with climate
impacts, is no longer optional; it’s necessary, particularly for the world’s most vulnerable populations.
• Importantly, climate action is not a binary pass-fail test. Every fraction of a degree of warming that we
prevent will reduce human suffering and death, and keep more of the planet’s natural systems intact. The
good news is that a wide range of solutions exist to sharply reduce emissions, slow the pace of warming,
and protect communities on the frontlines of climate impacts. Climate leaders the world over—those on
major political stages as well as grassroots community activists—are offering up alternative models to
systems that prioritize polluters over people. Many of these solutions are rooted in ancestral and
Indigenous understandings of the natural world and have existed for millennia. Some solutions require
major investments into clean, renewable energy and sustainable technologies. To be successful, climate
solutions must also address intersecting crises—like poverty, racism, and gender inequality—that
compound and drive the causes and impacts of the climate crisis. A combination of human ingenuity and
immense political will can help us get there.
• [Link]