Hypothesis: Additional

Example: A snack-food company produces a 454-g bag of pretzels. Although the actual net
weights deviate slightly from 454 g and vary from one bag to another, the company insists that the
mean net weight of the bags be 454 g. As part of its program, the quality assurance department
periodically performs a hypothesis test to decide whether the packaging machine is working
properly, that is, to decide whether the mean net weight of all bags packaged is 454 g.

 Determine the null hypothesis for the hypothesis test.

 Determine the alternative hypothesis for the hypothesis test.
 Classify the hypothesis test as two tailed, left tailed, or right tailed.
Solution: Let μ denote the mean net weight of all bags packaged.

 The null hypothesis is that the packaging machine is working properly, that is, that the
mean net weight, μ, of all bags packaged equals 454 g. In symbols,
H0: μ = 454 g.

 The alternative hypothesis is that the packaging machine is not working properly, that is,
that the mean net weight, μ, of all bags packaged is different from 454 g. In symbols,
Ha: μ ≠ 454 g.
 This hypothesis test is two tailed because a not-equal sign appears in the Ha

Example: The R. R. Bowker Company collects information on the retail prices of books and
publishes the data in The Bowker Annual Library and Book Trade Almanac. In 2005, the mean
retail price of history books was $78.01. Suppose that we want to perform a hypothesis test to
decide whether this year’s mean retail price of history books has increased from the 2005 mean.

 Determine the null hypothesis for the hypothesis test.

 Determine the alternative hypothesis for the hypothesis test.
 Classify the hypothesis test as two tailed, left tailed, or right tailed.

Solution: Let μ denote this year’s mean retail price of history books.

 The null hypothesis is that this year’s mean retail price of history books equals the 2005
mean of $78.01; that is, H0:μ = $78.01.
 The alternative hypothesis is that this year’s mean retail price of history books is greater
than the 2005 mean of $78.01; that is, Ha: μ > $78.01.
 This hypothesis test is right tailed because a greater-than sign (>) appears in the alternative
hypothesis.
Example: Calcium is the most abundant mineral in the human body and has several important
functions. Most body calcium is stored in the bones and teeth, where it functions to support their
structure. Recommendations for calcium are provided in Dietary Reference Intakes, developed by
the Institute of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences. The recommended adequate intake
(RAI) of calcium for adults (ages 19–50 years) is 1000 milligrams (mg) per day. Suppose that we
want to perform a hypothesis test to decide whether the average adult with an income below the
poverty level gets less than the RAI of 1000 mg.

 Determine the null hypothesis for the hypothesis test.

 Determine the alternative hypothesis for the hypothesis test.
 Classify the hypothesis test as two tailed, left tailed, or right tailed.
Solution: Let μ denote the mean calcium intake (per day) of all adults with incomes below the
poverty level.

 The null hypothesis is that the mean calcium intake of all adults with incomes below the
poverty level equals the RAI of 1000 mg per day; that is, H0: μ = 1000 mg.
 The alternative hypothesis is that the mean calcium intake of all adults with incomes below
the poverty level is less than the RAI of 1000 mg per day; that is, Ha: μ < 1000 mg.
 This hypothesis test is left tailed because a less-than sign (<) appears in the alternative
hypothesis.

Basic Logic of Hypothesis Testing

Take a random sample from the population. If the sample data are consistent with the null
hypothesis, do not reject the null hypothesis; if the sample data are inconsistent with the null
hypothesis and supportive of the alternative hypothesis, reject the null hypothesis in favor of the
alternative hypothesis.

Example: Consider again the pretzel-packaging hypothesis test. The null and alternative
hypotheses are, respectively,
H0: μ = 454 g (the packaging machine is working properly)
Ha: μ = 454 g (the packaging machine is not working properly),

where μ is the mean net weight of all bags of pretzels packaged. Explain what each of the following
would mean.

 Type I error
 Type II error
 Correct decision
Now suppose that the results of carrying out the hypothesis test lead to rejection of the null
hypothesis μ = 454 g, that is, to the conclusion that μ≠454 g. Classify that conclusion by error
type or as a correct decision if

 the mean net weight, μ, is in fact 454 g.

 the mean net weight, μ, is in fact not 454 g.

Solution:

 A Type I error occurs when a true null hypothesis is rejected. In this case, a Type I error
would occur if in fact μ = 454 g but the results of the sampling lead to the conclusion that
μ≠454 g.
Interpretation: A Type I error occurs if we conclude that the packaging machine is not
working properly when in fact it is working properly.
 A Type II error occurs when a false null hypothesis is not rejected. In this case, a Type II
error would occur if in fact μ ≠ 454 g but the results of the sampling fail to lead to that
conclusion.
Interpretation: A Type II error occurs if we fail to conclude that the packaging machine
is not working properly when in fact it is not working properly.
 A correct decision can occur in either of two ways.
 A true null hypothesis is not rejected. That would happen if in fact μ = 454 g and the results
of the sampling do not lead to the rejection of that fact.
 A false null hypothesis is rejected. That would happen if in fact μ ≠ 454 g and the results
of the sampling lead to that conclusion.
Interpretation: A correct decision occurs if either we fail to conclude that the packaging
machine is not working properly when in fact it is working properly, or we conclude that
the packaging machine is not working properly when in fact it is not working properly.
 If in fact μ = 454 g, the null hypothesis is true. Consequently, by rejecting thenull
hypothesis μ = 454 g, we have made a Type I error—we have rejected a true null hypothesis.
 If in fact μ ≠454 g, the null hypothesis is false. Consequently, by rejecting the null
hypothesis μ = 454 g, we have made a correct decision—we have rejected a false null
hypothesis.

Relation between Type I and Type II Error Probabilities

For a fixed sample size, the smaller we specify the significance level, α, the larger will be the
probability, β, of not rejecting a false null hypothesis.
Possible Conclusions for a Hypothesis Test
Suppose that a hypothesis test is conducted at a small significance level.

 If the null hypothesis is rejected, we conclude that the data provide sufficient evidence to
support the alternative hypothesis.
 If the null hypothesis is not rejected, we conclude that the data do not provide sufficient
evidence to support the alternative hypothesis.