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AUKUS and Its Impact on Five Eyes

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AUKUS and Its Impact on Five Eyes

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iamajoker25
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© All Rights Reserved
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AUKUS

AUKUS is a trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the
United States (AUKUS), announced on 15 September 2021. As part of this initiative,
Australia will acquire nuclear-powered submarines with help from the UK and the US.
This step is significant because the US has only shared nuclear submarine technology once
before, with Great Britain in 1958. AUKUS will also involve the sharing of cyber
capabilities, applied AI, quantum technologies and undersea technologies. This alliance
is being considered as the most significant security arrangement between these three
nations.

The strength of AUKUS:

 It will enhance capabilities of members and strengthen containment strategy against


China.

 It would enhance Surveillance capabilities of members in the Indo pacific.

 It can potentially act as a viable deterrent to China.

Challenges:

 It may trigger a possible Arms Race in the region. China has denounced AUKUS,
saying such partnerships should not target third countries. China claims that AUKUS
would gravely undermine regional peace and stability, aggravate arms race and hurt
the international non-proliferation efforts.
 Counter Alliances may emerge and destabilize the region. ( Russia – China)

What are the differences and similarities between QUAD & AUKUS?

 The major difference between both the alliances is that the AUKUS is a military
alliance, whereas QUAD is not, it is a diplomatic alliance. The QUAD discusses
diplomatic and global issues along with a security dialogue.

 Another difference would be that the AUKUS specifically will deal with the security
and military situation in the Indo-Pacific region, however, QUAD focuses on
multilateral issues ranging from economic discussions, security affairs & global
affairs e.g. COVID, Vaccines, Afghanistan situation, supply chain resilience etc.

VAJIRAM & RAVI Page 1


 One similarity between both the alliances is that both the groups have a common
interest in protecting the Indo-Pacific region from China’s dominance over other
nations.

Impact on India and Quad:


There are speculations that the outlook of the QUAD for Indo-Pacific will be upstaged by the
newly formed trilateral military alliance AUKUS. However, India’s Foreign Secretary Harsh
Vardhan Shringla has emphasized that AUKUS had no links with the Quad and won't impact
the functioning of the grouping. He clarified that Quad is “not a military alliance” and is
"not directed" at any country in particular.

However, jury is divided over its impact and it may cause both challenges and opportunities,
which are discussed below:

Challenges:
 New Challenge in Indo-pacific: There is an apprehension that the deal could
eventually lead to a crowding of nuclear attack submarines in the Eastern Indian
Ocean, eroding India’s regional pre-eminence.
 America’s unreliability: France’s unhappiness with AUKUS has complicated the
situation a bit from India’s perspective. In the light of these issues, some experts
suggest that US cannot be completely relied on, as it has excluded its long-time ally
France from the grouping despite being a NATO partner.
 Skeptics suggest if Australia and U.S. could deceive a North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) partner, they ask, what is to prevent them from doing the same
with lesser allies?
 AUKUS vs Quad: AUKUS has taken the focus away from the Quad. The agreement
suggests preferential treatment on the part of US for a close Anglo-alliance partner. It
reflects emergence of new regional security architecture (Exclusionary).
 Impact on other multilateral engagements: Five eyes alliance group.
 AUKUS is being seen as an exclusionary alliance and is not in line with India’s
vision of ASEAN centrality in the Indo – Pacific region.
 Technology Pursuit: Following the deepening of Quad ties, some in India were
hopeful that U.S. would consider providing the Indian Navy with nuclear submarine

VAJIRAM & RAVI Page 2


propulsion technology. However, US has already Clarified that the deal with
Australia is a ―one-off‖, belies India’s hopes.

Opportunities:

 It will strengthen the Quad’s agenda to keep the Indo-Pacific region free, open and
inclusive. AUKUS could also extend itself to bolster Quad’s efforts on maritime
exercises, security and efforts in countering COVID-19, climate change, cooperating
on critical technologies, and building resilient supply chains.
 Another potential benefit could be the leverage the AUKUS rollout gives India in
both the diplomatic and defense trade realms, particularly with France. As part of the
pact, Australia will abandon its US $43 billion plan to build French conventional
submarines, and instead build vessels based on US-UK technology.
 It reflects continued and intensifying U.S. and Australian concerns about China.
Moreover, it is designed to increase their capabilities in the region (which will also,
consequently, increase the cumulative capabilities of the Quad).
 For India, AUKUS means that the Quad can maintain its broad agenda—its recent
summit highlighted cooperation on COVID-19 vaccine distribution, climate change,
technology, and science expertise—and is absolved of any immediate responsibility
to step up and commit to an explicitly anti-China security framework.
 This meshes well with India’s outlook: India would like China contained but does not
want to be the one containing China—as well as its defense policy; it relies on
diverse sources of defense equipment, including Russia.

Five Eyes Alliance

 The three countries alongside Canada and New Zealand already share extensive
intelligence through Five Eyes alliance.
 The alliance was created during the Cold War (1946-1991)
 The alliance was needed to share sensitive information regarding their adversaries on all
possible fronts available.

VAJIRAM & RAVI Page 3

Common questions

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AUKUS presents new security challenges in the Indo-Pacific by possibly escalating tensions and provoking an arms race, as China perceives this as a direct threat. Conversely, it provides opportunities to enhance military deterrence capabilities against China's advancements, thereby potentially stabilizing the power dynamics through collective defense readiness. This realignment can encourage other regional players to reevaluate their security strategies and alliances, possibly leading to a more multipolar regional structure balancing China's rise .

The primary difference between AUKUS and QUAD is that AUKUS is a military alliance specifically focused on the security and military aspects in the Indo-Pacific region, while QUAD is a diplomatic alliance addressing multilateral issues including economic and global affairs, such as COVID response and supply chain resilience. However, both alliances share a common interest in protecting the Indo-Pacific from China's dominance. AUKUS provides military deterrence, whereas QUAD promotes diplomatic avenues for regional stability .

AUKUS challenges traditional non-proliferation norms by encouraging the development and deployment of nuclear-powered submarines in Australia, which some critics argue could aggravate an arms race and destabilize regional peace and stability. China's response highlights the perceived threat and targeting, which could alter the regional dynamics by prompting other nations to enhance their defensive capabilities, potentially igniting a counter-response from alliances like China-Russia, thereby destabilizing the existing balance in the region .

AUKUS might indirectly affect India's strategic interests by altering the regional security dynamics, which include the potential crowding of nuclear attack submarines in the Eastern Indian Ocean, affecting India's regional pre-eminence. Additionally, India's hopes for receiving nuclear propulsion technology from the US could be diminished as the Australia deal is considered a 'one-off.' Moreover, the exclusion of France in the AUKUS formation complicates the alliance landscape, indirectly impacting India's diplomatic and defense trade realms .

The establishment of AUKUS is significant in terms of the United States' historical policies toward sharing nuclear technology because the US has only shared nuclear submarine technology once before, with Great Britain in 1958. This indicates a rare and strategic decision by the US to engage in sharing such sensitive technology, highlighting the importance and trust placed within the AUKUS alliance .

AUKUS signals a shift in US regional security architecture by prioritizing a new trilateral partnership that enhances military capabilities specifically against threats from China, as seen in its focus on sharing advanced submarine technology and cyber capabilities. This formation diverts focus from QUAD to AUKUS by showcasing preferential treatment toward an Anglo-alliance, suggesting a move toward more exclusive security arrangements. Meanwhile, existing alliances like Five Eyes continue to function in intelligence-sharing without the military emphasis present in AUKUS, showing a nuanced adaptation of US strategies in different alliance contexts .

AUKUS realigns the strategic focus of alliances by pulling some emphasis away from QUAD's broad multilateral agenda toward a more focused military deterrence against China within the Indo-Pacific. This reflects a subtle shift where the US and its allies are actively preparing for possible military confrontations rather than solely focusing on diplomatic solutions. The existing Five Eyes alliance continues to focus on intelligence-sharing; however, AUKUS expands beyond this into direct military cooperation, indicating a strategic layering of cooperative engagements that address multiple aspects of regional security challenges .

Critics of AUKUS argue that this alliance may trigger a potential arms race in the region and destabilize regional peace and stability. China has denounced AUKUS, asserting that such partnerships should not target third countries and may gravely undermine regional peace, aggravate the arms race, and threaten international non-proliferation efforts. Furthermore, there's concern that counter-alliances, possibly involving Russia and China, may emerge as a response, further destabilizing the region .

AUKUS benefits its member nations by enhancing their military and surveillance capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, which strengthens their containment strategies against China. This trilateral security partnership is a significant deterrent and can potentially prevent unilateral actions by China within the region. By acquiring nuclear-powered submarines and sharing cyber, AI, and quantum technologies, AUKUS elevates the collective defense posture of its members, challenging China's military influence and ensuring a balance of power .

AUKUS, viewed as an exclusionary alliance, contradicts India's vision of ASEAN centrality by potentially marginalizing ASEAN's role in maintaining regional peace. The enhancement of US-Australia-UK ties may sideline India's diplomatic initiatives within QUAD and alter its defense calculations by pushing for more active military commitments against China. Additionally, France's exclusion from AUKUS has strained diplomatic ties with the US, presenting India with new geopolitical leverage opportunities in defense trade, particularly with France. This could realign India's strategic focus towards strengthening bilateral relations with both the US and France, balancing its defence procurements from multiple sources .

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